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Super Bowl Winners in Week One


Gugny
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I think the bills probably lose the opener and still think it's an odd matchup for the defending SB champ who almost always faces a conference foe in their opener so this is a big departure from that.

 

Yes there will likely be a large contingent of Bills mafia on hand but they aren't going to outnumber Rams fans who will be amped up in hopes their team launches a successful repeat campaign.

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The Bills will be ready this year.  Trust me.

Just like constructing a roster or developing a player... I believe an entire team goes through a mental process of transforming into a champion.

  • When Beane/McDermott took over the Bills in 2017, there were players who believed they "could" win every week.  But if they were honest, they really didn't expect to win against the better teams in the NFL.
  • Gradually through the 2018-2019 seasons, the locker room began to gain confidence and started truly believing they could win each week.  Shortly after that, came the mental hurdle of finally beating the Patriots and winning the division.  Then came the grind of winning their first playoff game. 

After the Kansas City loss in the 2020 championship game, I think the Bills found themselves beat-up and physically tired.  They still needed to learn how to pace themselves through a 16-17 game regular season, and then 3-4 games in the postseason.  Overall, I think they handled that plan well last year - and really knew when to turn on the juice for the playoffs.  But it also led to them dropping some winnable games (most notably Pittsburgh and Jacksonville).  Which ultimately cost them homefield advantage and the bye.

 

I truly believe this year they strike the right balance.  With the Super Bowl champs coming to town Week 1, followed by the Titans (who have beaten them two years in a row), they have all the motivation in the world to start strong.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Logic said:



That doesn't say anything about the LOCAL support, though. 

LA is a popular destination for opposing fans to go to see games.

Obviously, the league doesn't care WHO is in the seats, so long as the tickets are being bought.

Just pointing out that sold out games don't necessarily equal hardy local fan support.

 

I’m sure a lot of people attended to see the shiny new stadium. I know this happened in Atlanta when they opened the new dome. People would go to random events just to see the new place. 

 

It’s a lot like Vegas: new stadium and popular with visiting teams’ fans. Because they sold seats doesn’t mean LA has a ton of rabid NFL fans.  There is a reason teams kept moving away. 

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1 hour ago, Logic said:



That doesn't say anything about the LOCAL support, though. 

LA is a popular destination for opposing fans to go to see games.
 

Darn right!

Top 3 tourist activities, Sept.-Dec.:

1. "My team is playing the Chargers / Rams!"

2. "I am visiting the Hollywood Walk of Fame!"

3. "I am taking a cab to where OJ's mansion used to be!"

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9 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Darn right!

Top 3 tourist activities, Sept.-Dec.:

1. "My team is playing the Chargers / Rams!"

2. "I am visiting the Hollywood Walk of Fame!"

3. "I am taking a cab to where OJ's mansion used to be!"


(Don't forget the Sharon Tate house!)

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56 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

12-5 for a team with first round BYE aspirations is a bit disappointing. 

 

Disappointing?  That WOULD have gotten us the bye last year, if the obvious holds on Henry's TD run get called, or Josh's foot doesn't slip on crap turf.

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59 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

12-5 for a team with first round BYE aspirations is a bit disappointing. 

 

12-5 may be enough in the AFC. The division should be better, the conference is loaded.

 

Can't imagine the AFC West winner being better than 10-7, AFC North will be tough too. AFC South winner could sneak a 13 to 14 win season in, but the Jags should be better and steal a game or two from TN and INDY.

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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

facts

Fact. If our stadium still had 80,020 seats it would have been sold out since 2017 by Bills fans. LA stadiums may sell out as simply an event to attend

, but neither team has a rabid fan base.

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5 hours ago, Logic said:


No argument here.

I think the Bills will be fine in the long term with regard to the offensive coordinator change, but I expect there to be an adjustment period coming out of the gates. That period will happen to coincide with the toughest part of the schedule.

I could see either the Ravens or Chiefs games being a win instead of a loss, in which case the Bills wind up 13-4, and that may be good enough for a first round bye, particularly considering what dogfights the three other AFC divisions appear to be.

Eh, from all accounts the terminology is the same… so if there are struggles offensively I suspect it will be more personnel related than play calling/adapting…. But either way, perhaps I’m too harsh in suggesting 12-5 won’t be good enough for the 1 seed. The rest of the conference should be incredibly competitive…. But I expect the Bills to learn from last season and come out the gates firing with a drive to earn that one seed instead of some head scratching missteps/losses.

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I think this team learned its lesson about buying the hype last year. They're going to come out on fire, and it will be the football equivalent of Sherman's March from there.

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1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

Eh, from all accounts the terminology is the same… so if there are struggles offensively I suspect it will be more personnel related than play calling/adapting…. But either way, perhaps I’m too harsh in suggesting 12-5 won’t be good enough for the 1 seed. The rest of the conference should be incredibly competitive…. But I expect the Bills to learn from last season and come out the gates firing with a drive to earn that one seed instead of some head scratching missteps/losses.


I hope you’re right.

 

The adjustment period that I envision is mostly Ken Dorsey settling in, and the offense finding the right balance between the new stuff they’re trying to incorporate — more 12 and 13 personnel, getting the run game going consistently — and what has worked in the past. In addition to Dorsey being a first time play caller, Aaron Kromer being the new o-line coach might mean the run game takes a few weeks to find what works best and most consistently.

 

As Brandon Beane has said in the past, you don’t really start to know what you are as a football team until week 5 or so. If the Bills are changing and evolving, it may take some time to get firing on all cylinders. We used to see this all the time with the Patriots. They’d be mediocre to slightly above average in September, but by mid October they were unstoppable juggernauts.

 

Anyway, I’d love it if it turns out I’m being overly pessimistic and they end up going 14-3 instead. 

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9 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

SoFi averaged 71,598 (100.1% capacity) for the Rams and 70,240 (98.2%) for the Chargers.  Bills had 67,816 (94.7%) at home.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/attendance

 

This stat doesn't tell us anything about fandom/allegiance/enthusiasm of those in attendance. At all. The Rams definitely fit LA better than the Chargers, with respect to celebrity status of the orgs (McVay, OBJ, Donald, Ramsey, for starters) and considering this most recent iteration of the NFL in LA was catalyzed by THEIR owner...but these contextless stats don't do much to help us better evaluate the prior poster's point.  

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20 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

SoFi averaged 71,598 (100.1% capacity) for the Rams and 70,240 (98.2%) for the Chargers.  Bills had 67,816 (94.7%) at home.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/attendance

 

70,000 in attendance for Ram/Chargers home games represents about 0.5% of the metro population.  Given that a lot of attending fans are there for the away team, let's say about 0.4% of LA shows up for a home NFL game.

 

67,816 in attendance at Bills games represents about 5.7% of the metro population.

 

So, Mr. WEO, according to your stats, Bills fans are 10+ times more supportive than Rams or Charger fans.  

 

 

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17 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Fact. If our stadium still had 80,020 seats it would have been sold out since 2017 by Bills fans. LA stadiums may sell out as simply an event to attend

, but neither team has a rabid fan base.

 

lol. fact.

 

Highmark holds 71.8K. and the Bills have averaged over 68k only one season since 2017....but they would fill every seat of every game with only Bills fans if there were 80k seats!

 

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

This stat doesn't tell us anything about fandom/allegiance/enthusiasm of those in attendance. At all. The Rams definitely fit LA better than the Chargers, with respect to celebrity status of the orgs (McVay, OBJ, Donald, Ramsey, for starters) and considering this most recent iteration of the NFL in LA was catalyzed by THEIR owner...but these contextless stats don't do much to help us better evaluate the prior poster's point.  

 

What's your point?  Rams and Chargers have a weak fan base?  So what?  Everyone said LA was an NFL fan wasteland but that's obviously not true.  Look at Vegas--how many "Raiders fans" lived there before they came to town?  Yet the stadium draws the biggest gate of all.  It's a huge NFL venue and market because of visitors, LA as well--plus lots of transplants.  

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

70,000 in attendance for Ram/Chargers home games represents about 0.5% of the metro population.  Given that a lot of attending fans are there for the away team, let's say about 0.4% of LA shows up for a home NFL game.

 

67,816 in attendance at Bills games represents about 5.7% of the metro population.

 

So, Mr. WEO, according to your stats, Bills fans are 10+ times more supportive than Rams or Charger fans.  

 

 

 

 

see above.

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19 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

12-5 for a team with first round BYE aspirations is a bit disappointing. 

 

Scott, I hope the Bills do not disappoint you this year.   But, for me, 12-5 not long after 17 years of heartache and irrelevancy sounds pretty good.  It gets us into the playoffs and could propel us to the Super Bowl.  

 

As for the Rams, it's not surprising that world champions have a good record on opening day the following year.  And I'm sure the Rams will be stoked to play the Bills.  Many gurus are saying we're the Lombardi favorites this year.  The Rams are hearing that chatter and will want to remind the league who the current champs really are.  Beating the Bills would be a fantastic way to begin the season and proclaim, "We're back!"   Players want to win every game they play but I think this one will be a little special for the Rams.  

 

I'm looking forward to a good contest and hope the Mafia shows up in force.  

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