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Impact of Dobbs and Abortion Laws

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Backintheday544 Veteran

Backintheday544

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1 hour ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

 

 

Dude, chill out. I never said anything about "pre" or "post" Dobbs. You are assuming abortion is the NUMBER ONE ISSUE in the election coming up. It's not. 

 

And my post last week was 100% what I said in my reply before. Those were the projections posted by Politico. Not me. They project a 226-209 seat advantage in the House. When I posted that, it had a slight edge to the GOP in the Senate. 

 

https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/


Great, I’m glad we clarified your issue is easing comprehension. “Weird, because the GOP is predicted (by every news outlet) to win both the House and Senate. State gov. are projected to be around 50-50.”Politico isn’t every news outlet.

 

I am not assuming abortion is the number 1 issue for the election. However, I will assume that the trove of women registering to vote post Dobbs, it is the #1 issue. We’ve seen these increase women voters already contribute to disallowing an abortion referendum in red Kansas by a vote of 55-45.

 

In addition, while abortion may not be an issue for Republicans, there are two issues you overlook. 1) abortion is a major issue for Dems and it’s something that has already been shown to drive out the vote and increase voter registration. 2) for some Republicans abortion has been a get out to vote issue. With Dobbs, those Republicans would be less likely to vote.

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ChiGoose
ChiGoose

Since there are people out there who think that Dobbs v. Jackson Woman's Health Organization will only impact people seeking abortions for unwanted pregnancies, I thought it might be a good idea to se

All_Pro_Bills
All_Pro_Bills

Ironically, radical Democrats run and hide for cover when you ask them the simple question, "what is a women"?  But they'll fight tooth and nail over abortion issue to protect the rights of this incom

B-Man
B-Man

Oh.   Really ?       They lied about the law .   What a surprise.   .

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ArdmoreRyno Veteran

ArdmoreRyno

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5 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:


Great, I’m glad we clarified your issue is easing comprehension. “Weird, because the GOP is predicted (by every news outlet) to win both the House and Senate. State gov. are projected to be around 50-50.”Politico isn’t every news outlet.

 

I am not assuming abortion is the number 1 issue for the election. However, I will assume that the trove of women registering to vote post Dobbs, it is the #1 issue. We’ve seen these increase women voters already contribute to disallowing an abortion referendum in red Kansas by a vote of 55-45.

 

In addition, while abortion may not be an issue for Republicans, there are two issues you overlook. 1) abortion is a major issue for Dems and it’s something that has already been shown to drive out the vote and increase voter registration. 2) for some Republicans abortion has been a get out to vote issue. With Dobbs, those Republicans would be less likely to vote.

 

Less likely to vote... what?

 

Yes, abortion is a major issue to the democrats... it's 14% of their concerns I think I posted the stat that was released? Data by VOX (a very leftist media source) said that before the Dobbs ruling, there were 450,000 voters "new young voters" almost split 50-50 (around 100,000 each) when it came to parties (ind. were the vast majority of regsitered voters) and post, the number at the time of the data was 52,000 new voters, around 10,000 GOP and 20,000 DNC (again, most were ind.). 

 

 

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ComradeKayAdams RFA

ComradeKayAdams

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Posted (edited)
On 9/6/2022 at 6:13 PM, Backintheday544 said:

Politico has Senate as a toss up and House only as likely Republican:

 

https://www.politico.com/2022-election/race-forecasts-ratings-and-predictions/

 

PredictIt has Rep House and Dem Senate as a pretty big favorite: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election

 

 

I guess I’m more sanguine than most other leftists regarding the Democrats’ chances of holding the House. I think the polls may be significantly undersampling Gen Z voters in a midterm election. Since this midterm is markedly different from others due to the Dobbs ruling, performance expectation benchmarks of a 220-215 Democratic House and a 52-48 Democratic Senate seem perfectly reasonable to me.

 

An equally important focus, of course, must be on maintaining political pressure on the Democrats beyond the election. I hope my fellow Gen Z’ers understand this?! We need a federal codification of Roe v. Wade that protects the following:

 

1. All abortions during the non-viable embryonic/fetal development stage.

2. Medical waivers (general physical health of mother, miscarriage dilation/curettage or dilation/evacuation services, ectopic pregnancies, fetal abnormalities, any cryptic pregnancies and irregular pregnancies related to irregular periods and amenorrhea, etc.).

3. Psychological waivers (rape, i n c e s t, mental health of mother, etc.).

4. Logistics waivers for those stuck on abortion waitlists.

5. Full contraceptive access services.

6. Decriminalization of abortion for all fifty states (i.e. no murder charges allowed for mother or doctor).

7. No legal restrictions on interstate travel to seek abortions.

 

AND IF the Supreme Court shoots down a Women’s Health Protection Act like this one (which would essentially be a violation of the Ninth Amendment and the due process clause in each of the Fifth and Fourteenth), then Gen Z needs to be ready to take to the streets and pressure our politicians for court packing.

 

EDIT: Silly censored "i n c e st" word.

Edited by ComradeKayAdams
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Doc Hall of Famer

Doc

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

 

I guess I’m more sanguine than most other leftists regarding the Democrats’ chances of holding the House. I think the polls may be significantly undersampling Gen Z voters in a midterm election. Since this midterm is markedly different from others due to the Dobbs ruling, performance expectation benchmarks of a 220-215 Democratic House and a 52-48 Democratic Senate seem perfectly reasonable to me.

 

An equally important focus, of course, must be on maintaining political pressure on the Democrats beyond the election. I hope my fellow Gen Z’ers understand this?! We need a federal codification of Roe v. Wade that protects the following:

 

1. All abortions during the non-viable embryonic/fetal development stage.

2. Medical waivers (general physical health of mother, miscarriage dilation/curettage or dilation/evacuation services, ectopic pregnancies, fetal abnormalities, any cryptic pregnancies and irregular pregnancies related to irregular periods and amenorrhea, etc.).

3. Psychological waivers (rape, i n c e s t, mental health of mother, etc.).

4. Logistics waivers for those stuck on abortion waitlists.

5. Full contraceptive access services.

6. Decriminalization of abortion for all fifty states (i.e. no murder charges allowed for mother or doctor).

7. No legal restrictions on interstate travel to seek abortions.

 

AND IF the Supreme Court shoots down a Women’s Health Protection Act like this one (which would essentially be a violation of the Ninth Amendment and the due process clause in each of the Fifth and Fourteenth), then Gen Z needs to be ready to take to the streets and pressure our politicians for court packing.

 

EDIT: Silly censored "i n c e st" word.

 

No chance at the House and probably going to lose the Senate as well.  When gas and oil prices hit $8 a gallon right before the election, it's over.

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Backintheday544 Veteran

Backintheday544

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9 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

No chance at the House and probably going to lose the Senate as well.  When gas and oil prices hit $8 a gallon right before the election, it's over.

Lol. Highest gas has been in today dollars has been like $5.50 under Bush. There’s a better chance of Dems gaining seats in the house than $8 gas this year.

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Doc Hall of Famer

Doc

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

Lol. Highest gas has been in today dollars has been like $5.50 under Bush. There’s a better chance of Dems gaining seats in the house than $8 gas this year.

 

We'll all be wishing for $5.50 a gallon.  I'm having my home heating oil topped-up tomorrow at $4.05/gallon. 

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Buffarukus RFA

Buffarukus

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On 9/10/2022 at 9:52 AM, Doc said:

It's just dumb to not allow an abortion at least for a pregnancy that is a threat to the mother. 

 

im no longer shocked at the ways republicans figure out how to lose voters. from trump telling voters to either vote in person or not at all. great idea, idiot. to the insane policy they are pushing for the ultra religious sector of voters instead of the MILLIONS of disenfranchised dems and independants that would love a end to the extremist policy that is getting pushed. all R's have to do is stay moderate, thats it. remind them of all the ways the left destroyed this country and its a clean sweep. blm riots, defunding police, destructive covid mandates, inflation, mess at the boarder, soldiers they let die in afganistan, how dems support teachers over parents. DAs that are destroying law and order. gas and energy. there are literally too many reasons.

 

republicans: things are to much in our favor. lets remind everyone how extreme we can get on our side. lets arrest people trying to get a abortion! not extreme enough sir. oh ok well how about a ban on contraceptives! poll numbers are dropping sir, your a genius!

 

democrats drenched in sweat knowing jan 6 is not working. THANK YOU VERY MUCH!! did you here that birthing people? they hate you!!!!!!

 

Edited by Buffarukus
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