Buffalo Bills’ salary cap ramifications of cutting DT Star Lotulelei

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, JohnNord said:

If you read between the lines of what’s been said about him publicly, I don’t get the impression that the Bills hold a favorable opinion of him on the field.  
 

McDermott did not seem pleased that Star didn’t get vaxxed given his history last season.  Also Beane said in his presser that after landing on the COVID list, Star was not the same player.  
 

These comments are hardly ringing endorsements.  The Bills will certainly move on from him this season and 1TDT will likely be a position to add, especially if they can’t resign Phillips.  

 

 

An awful lot of the time when people "read between the lines, the actual meaning is that they're letting their confirmation bias twist the data the way they wish it would be. 

 

Agreed they'd rather he got vaccinated. And agreed that they believe that Covid caused him problems when he came back, as it did with Dawkins. That didn't indicate they were unhappy with Dawkins' on-field performance when it was not Covid-affected, nor does it mean that here. Their discussion of him before Covid were absolutely ringing endorsements. Without question.

 

You can say that they will "certainly move on from him this season." It is built on a foundation of utter and pure guesswork based on confirmation bias and has the logical certainty of a gambling addict saying the next roll of the roulette wheel will "definitely" come up 17 because he can feel it.

 

It could go either way.

[John from Riverside]

Cant see us cutting him if there are major salary cap ramifications

 

More then likely will say they are stocked up at that spot and go another way in the draft

[Hapless Bills Fan]

57 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Yes, sir. I suppose I disagree with Beane then? I thought Lotulelei was solid, if not more than solid. Probably his best season as a Bill. I think the biggest problem that our D faces is the soft cookie cutter scheme that we’re running. The fact that McD hasn’t fired Frazier yet to me is a huge lack of accountability on his part. Until this Bills team gets more aggressive and starts attacking, our players will continue to languish as a result of it.

 

Yep, I believe you disagree with the Beanemeister.  Might also disagree with McDermott and Frazier, since Lotulelei saw his snap count fall when he returned from Covid.  53% before, 37% after, and that includes 53% his first game back, and a big drop afterwards presumably based on film.  Might have been his best season as a Bill but from some people's assessment that's a low bar.

 

I'm not sure I understand what you mean by "cookie cutter scheme"?

 

I assume McDermott hasn't fired Frazier yet because he's very plugged into the defense, and during the time outs was aware of and bought into the defensive playcalls that were made.

 

I felt the Bills D was far more aggressive during the Week 5 game and don't understand why we didn't defend with the same aggression in the playoffs unless they felt that we simply physically couldn't, without Tre' White and our fastest DT Zimmer in the lineup, and with the "shine" out of Star (and Rousseau)

 

23 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

You can say that they will "certainly move on from him this season." It is built on a foundation of utter and pure guesswork based on confirmation bias and has the logical certainty of a gambling addict saying the next roll of the roulette wheel will "definitely" come up 17 because he can feel it.

 

Ohhhhh....funny you mention gambling to that particular poster

 

(Agree that "reading between the lines" = guesswork; could be right, could be wrong, nothing absolute or guaranteed about it).

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

First of all.......again,  I'm all for moving on.    But I would have cut bait after the 2019 season rather than guarantee his 2020 salary in exchange for saving a couple million on the cap.    Obviously my way would have been the right way.........re-structuring his contract in the manner they chose was a predictable failure.

 

But with about $4.2M in earnable but unguaranteed money in his 2022 contract...........there is CERTAINLY a way to change his contract or make new conditions........that's called a "re-structure".

 

And he ain't making anything with an "$" on the front and "M" on the back in 2022 if it ain't with the Buffalo Bills.

 

And this time, the team has all the leverage........as opposed to back in February of 2020 before he had opted out on his team,  suffered multiple injuries,  refused vax and then got ill with covid etc..

 

As for not being able to incentivize people with money............you obviously haven't done much employing or hiring of contract work.    Money contingent on performance makes people WANT to do things they wouldn't otherwise want to do.   It is human nature.   Thinking otherwise is very naive/ignorant.

 

 

 

 

That's fine that you're for moving on. That wouldn't have been the right way, it would have been your way. We'll know what would have worked out better after we see how his time here ends.

 

And yes, you can re-structure.

 

But no, this is where the nonsense comes in,  in no way does the team have the leverage right now. Neither side has much more leverage right now. But Star's agents know that the Bills don't want to cut him now with the cap consequences being wnat they are.

 

Also complete nonsense that he's not making pretty good money if the Bills cut him. He was kicking butt last year till he caught Covid, playing excellent football. He could very easily get picked up for good money. There's simply no way to know, but it's very possible. 

 

And wow, you're really on fire today with the macho but ridiculous stuff, dude. Wow, I'm so impressed by your sheer masculine power and smarts. You're saying incentives are supposed to make a guy want to do things? Wow, so brilliant. I guess that's why nobody ever turns down incentives.

 

Yeah, thing is you didn't say anything about incentives purpose being to incentivize. If you had, nobody would have disagreed. He's already got an incentive clause and yet we saw what happened last year. They can't change his contract no matter how tough some internet fan tries to sound. If he wants to come and earn the incentives, he will, and if he doesn't, he won't, and again he came in in terrific shape last year.

[iccrewman112]

On 2/7/2022 at 7:43 AM, Doc said:

It's $1.5M savings on the cap ($4.1 if post-June 1st) but more importantly almost $4.5M in savings by the Pegulas.  He's gone.

people forget cap savings is very different to an owner who saves ACTUAL DOLLARS. 
 

dollars that can go to facilities, employee compensation, budget for coaching staff. Or even just to their pockets. 

[JohnNord]

58 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

An awful lot of the time when people "read between the lines, the actual meaning is that they're letting their confirmation bias twist the data the way they wish it would be. 

 

Agreed they'd rather he got vaccinated. And agreed that they believe that Covid caused him problems when he came back, as it did with Dawkins. That didn't indicate they were unhappy with Dawkins' on-field performance when it was not Covid-affected, nor does it mean that here. Their discussion of him before Covid were absolutely ringing endorsements. Without question.

 

You can say that they will "certainly move on from him this season." It is built on a foundation of utter and pure guesswork based on confirmation bias and has the logical certainty of a gambling addict saying the next roll of the roulette wheel will "definitely" come up 17 because he can feel it.

 

It could go either way.

This entire message board is guesswork.  We’ll see if Star is on this roster next year.  Like I said, based on all the signs I’m thinking he won’t be.  I’ll be sure to let you know this Spring

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

You should have just stopped at his dad is a CPA so you'd hope his money is well taken care of instead of adding all the racist stereotyping weirdness.  

 

"Mormon" and "immigrant" are races?  Huh, Who Knew? 

 

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/7/2022 at 8:13 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not going to debate Star's motivation to play football.  He's said flat out that he doesn't love football.  His motivation comes in portraits of dead presidents.  When that's the motivation, if you're payed whether you perform or not, well...

 

I think there is some misunderstanding quite a few people have about this article.  I think its a bit misconstrued in how its applied to Star and he gets a bad rap for something he didn't actually specifically say.

 

I know a lot people think the same thing:  "He's said flat out that he doesn't love football."  But Star didn't actually say he doesn't love football, and it gets mistakenly contributed to him all the time.  If you read the full article, and its a good article overall, its a comment that the journalist makes...an observation where the journalist actually says that to emphasize how Star's first love and motivation is his family.  Star plays to provide for his family and to help his teammates provide for their family, and I don't see anything wrong with that and I am sure thats why a lot of people go through the pain and abuse it takes to play a long time in the NFL.  

 

But the article goes on to talk about how great of a work ethic and drive that Star has, and how he has always put his teammates first and out there fighting for them and their ability to provide for their families.  Its full of examples by coaches and former teammates talking about him helping other teammates out, playing hurt so others could rest, etc etc.  

 

I don't think there is anything wrong with a player loving his family and teammates more than the game itself, but Star has this inaccurate label as if he just doesn't care at all about football.  And its always this article people cite, the same article praising his worth ethic and passion and love he has to for his teammates and their success too.  

 

So I think a journalists comment to emphasize that Star loves his family over everything else (which he should) gets taken out of context and gives Star a bad rap as if he doesn't love football and doesn't give it all, but thats really not what this article states and thats definitely not what his coaches or teammates believe either.    

 

 

On 2/7/2022 at 8:13 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

But how are you going to "insist that he be there for the offseason and OTAs"?

 

They're called voluntary workouts because they're contractually voluntary up until mandatory minicamp.

 

And even if somehow they did persuade/insist...that doesn't guarantee full-go effort throughout the season.  Star did show up in shape and ready to go.  Beane pointed to effective play from Star week 2-8, and not as effective play week 13, 15, 17 and 18 plus playoffs.  Beane attributed this to lingering effects of Star's bout with covid 19 (did we ever get an explanation of the mysterious "personal reasons" week?) even on a drastically lowered snap count.

 

Yeah, I think its plausible that COVID impacted him that way, I mean I had it over Xmas and I still feel some of the effects when I am doing something physical like basketball or even a light workout.  

 

On 2/7/2022 at 8:13 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Obviously McDermott and Frazier have (in the past anyway) disagreed with your long-time take on Lotulelei's on-field contributions, it's not my intent to argue that here. 

 

My point is that the coaches and Beane have to decide whether Lotulelei's value to them  exceeds the roster space he takes up and the savings from cutting him, based on what they perceive as his on-field and off-field work ethic and committment, not based on a participation in OTAs they can't insist on or enforce, and which wouldn't necessarily foreshadow an adequate season-long effort.

 

I will say that McDermott has repeatedly referenced "leadership in the room" when discussing some of his under-performing veterans, but need to confront the contradiction implicit in having "leaders" like Hughes who don't actually show their butts up for OTAs

 

 

Yeah, I agree its up to McD and Beane to determine what his value is to the team as both a player and locker room guy and weigh that against cost to keep him or cut him.  I think its plausible they could look to replace Star this year, but the healthy Star was still a pretty good player and important in how our defense is played.  So this will be an interesting story to watch this offseason IMHO.

 

Personally, if I had to guess, I would lean towards him probably being back this year since the cap savings are not that great.  But hard to say for sure right now, especially before we see what happens with some of our FA's and what kind of cap space Beane creates elsewhere.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

45 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

ink there is some misunderstanding quite a few people have about this article.  I think its a bit misconstrued in how its applied to Star and he gets a bad rap for something he didn't actually specifically say.

 

I know a lot people think the same thing:  "He's said flat out that he doesn't love football."  But Star didn't actually say he doesn't love football, and it gets mistakenly contributed to him all the time.  If you read the full article, and its a good article overall, its a comment that the journalist makes...an observation where the journalist actually says that to emphasize how Star's first love and motivation is his family.  Star plays to provide for his family and to help his teammates provide for their family, and I don't see anything wrong with that and I am sure thats why a lot of people go through the pain and abuse it takes to play a long time in the NFL.  

 

I appreciate your different POV .....but ultimately, when you say Star plays to provide for his family, aren't you saying that Star plays for money?  And isn't that consistent with saying "Star doesn't love football...he plays for portraits of dead presidents" (not, I acknowledge your point, because of $$ per se but as a means to provide for his family). 

 

The point I am getting at is, when McDermott talks about how you have to have a fire in your belly every week to be the best - I don't think Star has that.   I think he gives honest effort, but I don't think he's tirelessly working to be better and more impactful as a player every game.  I should note, I don't intend to single out and slam Star here, because I think in this modern football era it's true of a lot of players.  They love football as a means to gain generational wealth, and once they get paid or get to a point where their play doesn't impact their pay very much...they relax and lose some edge.  And I think Star has continued to put in the work better than many of them (Shaq Lawson and Jordan Phillips, I'm looking at You).

 

I believe I understand why McDermott brought him in - he was trying to effect rapid cultural change in the DL room, and he had confidence that Star would "buy in" and put in the example of steady grind.  But I think we need to move past that.

 

 

45 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yeah, I think its plausible that COVID impacted him that way, I mean I had it over Xmas and I still feel some of the effects when I am doing something physical like basketball or even a light workout.  

 

I agree.  It's "hit and miss" where it takes some people a longer time to shed all the effects. 

 

45 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yeah, I agree its up to McD and Beane to determine what his value is to the team as both a player and locker room guy and weigh that against cost to keep him or cut him.  I think its plausible they could look to replace Star this year, but the healthy Star was still a pretty good player and important in how our defense is played.  So this will be an interesting story to watch this offseason IMHO.

 

Personally, if I had to guess, I would lean towards him probably being back this year since the cap savings are not that great.  But hard to say for sure right now, especially before we see what happens with some of our FA's and what kind of cap space Beane creates elsewhere.  

 

That would be my guess, though I'm not opposed to the Bills trying to move on, either.  I just badly want to see attention to our offensive line and offensive skill players, with two of our WR over 33 y.o., and I know our cap space is limited with lots of FA on the DL.   I suppose I'm afraid that with only Oliver and Star and 2 PS DTs under contract, if we cut Star it will mean throwing a lot more of our FA $$ and draft resources into DL 😒

 

But none of us really know what kind of effort Star is putting in behind the scenes and where his head and heart are.  It's up to McDermott and Beane to figure that out.

[Southern_Bills]

On 2/7/2022 at 9:45 AM, Success said:

I hope they keep Star.  When he plays, he's a force, imo.  We improved when he was in there.

 

Replacing him, Addison and Hughes would be a tall task.

 

 

Addison and Hughes yes. Star plays lazy, he doesn't really care, I'd rather take a chance on a young guy that goes undrafted with good height/weight/speed for the position. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

This entire message board is guesswork.  We’ll see if Star is on this roster next year.  Like I said, based on all the signs I’m thinking he won’t be.  I’ll be sure to let you know this Spring

 

These are perfectly reasonable statements.  We'll see...based on the signs you're thinking he won't be.

 

But you started out far more definitive: "Star is not going to be in the roster this season.   I can guarantee you that the Bills will cut him as they look to upgrade at DT."
 

and

"This is a done deal.  Star is already gone.  There is zero chance….zero chance…he’s on the roster in 2022"

 

"Zero chance...done deal...I can guarantee you" is not quite the same as "based on the signs, I think..."

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I appreciate your different POV .....but ultimately, when you say Star plays to provide for his family, aren't you saying that Star plays for money?  And isn't that consistent with saying "Star doesn't love football...he plays for portraits of dead presidents" (not, I acknowledge your point, because of $$ per se but as a means to provide for his family). 

 

I don't personally take it that way.  I don't think there is a bigger motivation in life than your family, I don't think it means said player is just a money guy and once he gets paid he doesn't put in the same effort.  The way that whole article is written, it comes across to me that he is out there fighting every day to do his best, help his teammates do their best, so they can do the most for their families.  I mean it speaks of Star being hurt, but still went out and practiced so the other guys weren't forced to take all his reps and can get some rest.  He seems to go all out for his team and teammates.  And any coach or teammate that ever speaks about him always says the same.  

 

I totally agree with you its different for every player, like the guys you named.  I just don't think it rings true specifically with Star and that its a journalists quote that was really just trying to emphasize how important family is to Star that has created this sort of inaccurate belief about Star's motivation.  

 

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That would be my guess, though I'm not opposed to the Bills trying to move on, either.  I just badly want to see attention to our offensive line and offensive skill players, with two of our WR over 33 y.o., and I know our cap space is limited with lots of FA on the DL. 

 

But none of us really know what kind of effort Star is putting in behind the scenes and where his head and heart are.  It's up to McDermott and Beane to figure that out.

 

Yeah, I am also not opposed to Bills trying to move on if they have a better plan in how to replace him that makes sense.  My guess, is he is likely back (given the cap savings isn't that much) and they look for a young guy in the draft as someone to groom to replace him eventually.  If the Star that was playing before COVID hit him is the guy they get back this camp, then our defense will be better off for it.  But he also isn't getting any younger, so its hard to say what kind of a player will be this camp.  

[JohnNord]

25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

These are perfectly reasonable statements.  We'll see...based on the signs you're thinking he won't be.

 

But you started out far more definitive: "Star is not going to be in the roster this season.   I can guarantee you that the Bills will cut him as they look to upgrade at DT."
 

and

"This is a done deal.  Star is already gone.  There is zero chance….zero chance…he’s on the roster in 2022"

 

"Zero chance...done deal...I can guarantee you" is not quite the same as "based on the signs, I think..."

You are correct.  It was hyperbole.  If you can’t tell though, I feel very strongly he won’t be on the team 

[BuffaloRebound]

McBeane know more than all of us why Star missed the games he did.  This is one of those situations where you gotta trust the guys in charge.  His contract is a bit of an albatross, but he’s still useful when available.  Doubt you can replace him for $1.5m you’d save cutting him or even $4m if he was a post June 1 cut.  

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

"Mormon" and "immigrant" are races?  Huh, Who Knew? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You really need to learn how to use the edit feature if you are going to post something like this while your current post is still up.

 

You painted a picture using race(Tongan),  citizenship status(son of immigrant) and religion(Mormon) to explain why you knew that Star Lotulelei had wisely handled his money.

 

None of those 3 aspects of he or his family's identity assures any kind of inherent financial acuity.  

 

 

[Dkollidas]

On 2/8/2022 at 12:04 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don’t think that’s correct.  He has $2.5M guaranteed salary and a $2.6M signing bonus this year.  If he’s cut post June 1, I think they still  pay that this season.  So the dead cap would be $5.1M.   They just get to count next year’s signing bonus…next year.

Yes you’re right, it just changed on Spotrac and over the cap the past week I believe. 

[DrPJax]

On 2/7/2022 at 10:22 AM, ColoradoBills said:

I said it before, his heart is not in the game and he should retire.

I said the same thing. Minor things before Covid seemed to be affecting his playing time.  In work comp injuries it is well known the longer a patient stays away from work it becomes all more likely they won’t ever return. He was not practicing much before Covid. He was not the same after. It is a real , documented psychological phenomena that it is another obstacle to overcome.  It says something  about his state of mind and desire to opt out that first year because of Covid , being a minority of extreme competitors who chose to go forth. That’s not a character attack , merely a reflection of personality traits and one’s desire.  He was not committed for the grind and I think it proved itself after the early comeback novelty wore off. I think he is around now for the money but that’s not what’s best for the team. It’s time for a business decision and let him go.
 

 I believe it will come as a huge relief for him as some guys ego will make them hold on when their true enjoyment has left.  He plays a minor role at best now and this D needs more if they are going to compete with a formidable schedule next year.  He will hold on if left to his own decision, and it’s appropriate to lift that burden for him. It’s the right decision to move on and it’s time to cut emotional ties. Leaders also have to actually contribute and he did that in one or two games at most. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

You painted a picture using race(Tongan)

 

Badol, give it up.  You're pursuing sunk costs here.

 

Tonga is a nation.  Tongan is a nationality and a cultural identity - like "French" or "Swiss" or "Swedish".  Most of the citizens of Tonga are Polynesian or have Polynesian ancestry.  I didn't make that point in my previous post because I wanted to see if "Tonga = race therefore attributing characteristics to Tongan = racist" were a dead horse you were gonna to try to ride.  You never disappoint.

 

Let's recap.  This exchange started out with you asserting that the Bills should "insist" that Star participate in off-season workouts and that they could renegotiate his contract with him to push more of his non-guaranteed salary into incentives.  You use incentivizing contract workers as an example to instruct us in how this works.  Myself and others point out that the Bills can not "insist" on OTA participation - that's specifically prohibited by the CBA.   This point is inarguable.

 

We also point out that the Bills have little to no leverage to force Star to renegotiate his contract: when a man has earned $47M dollars, he's likely reached a point where extended time with family may outweigh monetary incentives - a viewpoint supported by Star's non-participation in OTAs last year.  Star also has $2.5M dollars guaranteed and a lot of his cap hit to the Bills is already in his bank account as signing bonus. 

 

Your counter argument is that we have no proof Star has been careful with his money and that no one else in the league will pay him $3.6-$4M so he'll get more from the Bills. These points are ones where there can legitimately be differences of opinions - young football players are notoriously bad at money management vs. Star having family expertise at hand and being a member of several cultural and religious groups with values that are well-established to trend towards honoring family and towards fiscal responsibility; you have a well-known and oft-reiterated negative opinion of Star's on-field performance, which may or may not be shared by GMs around the league at this time.  In which case  Star can take his $2.5M and go home.

 

It's OK, people can disagree on these points.  People can muster legitimate arguments for and against them.

 

But because your arguments aren't being accepted as incontrovertible and You Can Never Be Wrong, you make it a point of attacking intelligence: "For as much time as you dedicate to this hobby..........you really should be smarter"

Then you make it a point of attacking character: "racist stereotyping weirdness" about a cultural and religious identity well-established to highly value family and fiscal responsibility, borne out by the fact that Star actually lives near his parents.

 

You never disappoint.

 

I think I've said what I need to here.  Over and out.  You get a free shot - and I'm quite certain you'll take it.  You can't help yourself, like a cat triggered into chasing a laser pointer.

 

 

 

 

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Yes you’re right, it just changed on Spotrac and over the cap the past week I believe. 

A couple of seasons ago some of us dug into the contract info on Star and found that it was incorrect on both sites (albeit differently).  I can’t remember who here discovered it, but kudos to them.  We were able to figure out what it really was at the time.  Both sites have recently fixed it.  The mistakes were probably due to the reworked deal.

[Einstein's Dog]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't personally take it that way.  I don't think there is a bigger motivation in life than your family, I don't think it means said player is just a money guy and once he gets paid he doesn't put in the same effort.  The way that whole article is written, it comes across to me that he is out there fighting every day to do his best, help his teammates do their best, so they can do the most for their families. 

 

I totally agree with you its different for every player, like the guys you named.  I just don't think it rings true specifically with Star and that its a journalists quote that was really just trying to emphasize how important family is to Star that has created this sort of inaccurate belief about Star's motivation.  

 

Yeah, I am also not opposed to Bills trying to move on if they have a better plan in how to replace him that makes sense.  My guess, is he is likely back (given the cap savings isn't that much) and they look for a young guy in the draft as someone to groom to replace him eventually.  If the Star that was playing before COVID hit him is the guy they get back this camp, then our defense will be better off for it.  But he also isn't getting any younger, so its hard to say what kind of a player will be this camp.  

Alpha - I had a similar feel reading that article, people giving Star a bum rap from the writers line of Star doesn't love football.  I got the feeling from the article that writer was trying to impart that Star is more motivated than most because Star values the salaries and realizes this is generational type money.  Star was moving people for a living for a year.

 

I came away from the article thinking Star values money.  And people who think that because Star already has been paid a lot of money he won't care about not getting another $2.6M are wrong.  It was a worry last year but we all saw Star come back in phenomenal shape.  He cares.  There have been some unusual happenings with Star but there is a possible reasonable, unique, explanation for them (real Covid concerns based on preexisting conditions).  I hope that is the case and that Star comes back and is his early 2021 self - the team is better for it.