Josh Allen home/road splits

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

On Locked On Bills today (start at 3:55 mark), Joe Marino shared Allen's road and home splits both for this year and his career overall. The differences are stark.

 

2021:

Home: 60.8%, 6.22 YPA, 85.8 rating

Road: 66.1%, 7.61 YPA, 99.4 rating

 

Career:

Home: 60.09%, 6.69 YPA, 86.2 rating

Road: 64.61%, 7.47 YPA, 95.6 rating

 

Marino concludes that Allen has been a better road quarterback than home quarterback and there appears to be something to this phenomenon.

 

I continue to believe that Allen and the Bills are best suited to playing on the road in the playoffs. If they can get through that first home game, I'd rather see them on the road in future rounds.

[No_Matter_What]

There is definitely something to it.

 

But so far Allen has played 4 games in playoffs. Won both home games and lost both road games. So there is that.

[teef]

i'm just taking the philosophy that if the bills are the better team, they should beat the team across from them, no matter where it's played.  

 

i get the road vs home debate, but i just think some are putting too much stock into it.

Edited January 4, 2022 by teef

[DJB]

10 minutes ago, teef said:

i'm just taking the philosophy that if the bills are the better team, they should beat the team across from them, no matter where it's played.  

 

i get the road vs home debate, but i just think some are putting too much stock into it.

 

We also know that Josh talks about getting too jacked up and perhaps he is at home games and calmer on the road. 

[teef]

1 minute ago, DJB said:

 

We also know that Josh talks about getting too jacked up and perhaps he is at home games and calmer on the road. 

there's definitely an element to that, which is what i think the OP is ultimately trying to get at.  i'm not going to get too into it, but i have a feeling there's more to the story than just the stats posted.  

 

look at our three home losses this year.  who knows what happened in the opener against pit.  the other two were against the colts and the pats, which had some of the worst weather possible.  i have to imagine that comes into play too.  the home lost last year was against the chiefs, who aren't too shabby.  concerning the allen years before that, he was a raw young qb, and this team wasn't very good.  give it a few more years, and i don' think those numbers mean as much as some want them to right now.

[dave mcbride]

23 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

On Locked On Bills today (start at 3:55 mark), Joe Marino shared Allen's road and home splits both for this year and his career overall. The differences are stark.

 

2021:

Home: 60.8%, 6.22 YPA, 85.8 rating

Road: 66.1%, 7.61 YPA, 99.4 rating

 

Career:

Home: 60.09%, 6.69 YPA, 86.2 rating

Road: 64.61%, 7.47 YPA, 95.6 rating

 

Marino concludes that Allen has been a better road quarterback than home quarterback and there appears to be something to this phenomenon.

 

I continue to believe that Allen and the Bills are best suited to playing on the road in the playoffs. If they can get through that first home game, I'd rather see them on the road in future rounds.

How are the opponents' home/road splits when it comes to playing in Orchard Park? The differential is what matters, not Allen's numbers without surrounding context.

[JESSEFEFFER]

The worst weather games the Bills play in have almost always been home.  Imo, the differential is almost totally due to weather effects on the passing game but mostly isolated to just a few games where QB numbers were pretty bad on both sides.  The Bills passing D is great but if it weren't for bad weather home games I doubt they would be the #1 pass defense since 2017 when Sean took over.  The 2019 games vs. Philadelphia and Baltimore,  2020 vs. NE and LAC and most every game this season have been wind affected, even the Steelers game.  There are some throws that are just much tougher to complete and are almost not worth attempting.  That over throw of wide open Diggs vs. the Steelers in week 1 was into the wind which was 16-20 mph.  Josh probably just put too much on it and overcompensated.  Even if Josh puts the ball where it needs to be, the ball is tougher to track and catch as it will tend move in unpredictable ways as evidence by the ball that hit Diggs in the elbow vs. the Pats.

 

I do not think Josh and/or Daboll have had smart high wind game plans.  Over the years I have seen Phil Rivers (2013) and Carson Wentz be very effective with shallow crossing rub routes going for big YAC and screens plus QB scrambles to convert 3rd downs, respectively.  It looks like the Bills try to run their normal offense and hope Josh can still make enough plays.  Josh not taking any velocity off his short, over the middle throws in 26F weather is one example of what I mean.  There are adjustments to playing in bad weather and I don't think Bills have been good at making them.

[Logic]

I think the weather is a part of it, but I also think a big factor is Josh's mindset.

Calm Josh Allen is elite. Hyper Josh Allen is two-turnover Josh Allen.

On the road, he seems to get into a mental zone where he usually stays calm and collected. Maybe it's due to the crowd noise on the road, the collective effort it takes to thrive as an offense in adverse conditions, whatever. I'm not sure.

At home, he seems to get a bit too hyped up, and suddenly his throws are a little bit off and his decision making can suffer. Maybe it's the excitement of playing in front of a home crowd, maybe it's trying to live up the massive expectations that home fans have for him. I'm not sure.

All I know is that it seems irrefutable at this point: Josh, by and large, plays better on the road than at home.

[Joe Ferguson]

I hope Bills lose to the Jets. I'm worried sick how the Bills play at home. Josh Allen and the team are absolute dog turds when they play at home.

But will be great when they're on the road. Bills are road warriors.

Rooting for #6 or #7 seed for the Bills!

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 minute ago, Joe Ferguson said:

I hope Bills lose to the Jets. I'm worried sick how the Bills play at home. Josh Allen and the team are absolute dog turds when they play at home.

But will be great when they're on the road. Bills are road warriors.

Rooting for #6 or #7 seed for the Bills!

 

um .... no

[Logic]

Just now, Joe Ferguson said:

I hope Bills lose to the Jets. I'm worried sick how the Bills play at home. Josh Allen and the team are absolute dog turds when they play at home.

But will be great when they're on the road. Bills are road warriors.

Rooting for #6 or #7 seed for the Bills!

The thought of actively rooting for the Patriots to win the AFC East instead of the Bills makes me ill.

I get it. You're thinking that how they perform in the playoffs is all that matters. Still, there's no way I'm rooting for the freakin PATS to win the division.

Besides, McDermott is 2-0 in home playoff games but 0-3 in road playoff games.

[WotAGuy]

If he plays great on the road, I’m all for that!

[billsfan1959]

Just now, Logic said:

The thought of actively rooting for the Patriots to win the AFC East instead of the Bills makes me ill.

I get it. You're thinking that how they perform in the playoffs is all that matters. Still, there's no way I'm rooting for the freakin PATS to win the division.

Besides, McDermott is 2-0 in home playoff games but 0-3 in road playoff games.

 

I don't get it. Fans actively rooting against their team to have home playoff games? Nope, don't get it....

[Nextmanup]

I've commented on this all over the place.

Josh has a problem dealing with stress/pressure and as far as I know, still vomits before every game.

 

He puts an enormous amount of pressure on himself particularly at home, to please the fans.  He just wants to excel but it can become crippling.  

 

It's a documented phenomenon in other sports like hockey.

 

Some teams just play better, smarter, more disciplined hockey on the road, where there is less pressure to please the home crowd.

 

[billsfan1959]

5 hours ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Career:

Home: 60.09%, 6.69 YPA, 86.2 rating

Road: 64.61%, 7.47 YPA, 95.6 rating

 

You forgot to add:

 

Career Reg Season

Home: 20-10

Road:  18-12

 

Career Playoffs

Home: 2-0

Road:  0-2

[FilthyBeast]

This team hasn't been dominant at home for years except for last year going 9-1 combined during regular season/playoffs.

 

But in regards to Allen, this is another argument against him if you want to nitpick his contract and/or whether or not he truly belongs in the discussion among the leagues best.

 

Even the Bradys and Rogers of the world don't go 8-0 at home every year but definitely need to see more 6-2 or 7-1 type of records at home consistently going forward or we have no real home field advantage.

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

I've commented on this all over the place.

Josh has a problem dealing with stress/pressure and as far as I know, still vomits before every game.

 

He puts an enormous amount of pressure on himself particularly at home, to please the fans.  He just wants to excel but it can become crippling. 

 

 

First bolded: Many athletes exhibit anxiety/stress before a game, match, etc. It in no way means it affects their play once the game, match, etc, begins. And I'm sure whatever anxiety / stress Allen feels before a game, it is the same whether at home or on the road.

 

Second bolded: Pure speculation on your part. If I were to venture a guess, I would say, during the game, Allen is far more concerned with what happening on the field rather than what fans might be thinking.

[teef]

7 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

This team hasn't been dominant at home for years except for last year going 9-1 combined during regular season/playoffs.

 

But in regards to Allen, this is another argument against him if you want to nitpick his contract and/or whether or not he truly belongs in the discussion among the leagues best.

 

Even the Bradys and Rogers of the world don't go 8-0 at home every year but definitely need to see more 6-2 or 7-1 type of records at home consistently going forward or we have no real home field advantage.

no one is nitpicking his contract except for you.  you made the comment that if the bills had signed him this year, they would have paid him less based on production.  that didn't cross a single person's mind except yours.  mostly because it's insane.  

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

First bolded: Many athletes exhibit anxiety/stress before a game, match, etc. It in no way means it affects their play once the game, match, etc, begins. And I'm sure whatever anxiety / stress Allen feels before a game, it is the same whether at home or on the road.

 

Second bolded: Pure speculation on your part. If I were to venture a guess, I would say, during the game, Allen is far more concerned with what happening on the field rather than what fans might be thinking.

today is full of hot takes, mostly by the same 3-4 posters.  magic.

[dave mcbride]

18 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

You forgot to add:

 

Career Reg Season

Home: 20-10

Road:  18-12

 

Career Playoffs

Home: 2-0

Road:  0-2

One of those home losses was to the Jets at the end of 2019 season, where Allen played three plays. If that game had mattered, they would have destroyed the Jets.

[billsfan1959]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

One of those home losses was to the Jets at the end of 2019 season, where Allen played three plays. If that game had mattered, they would have destroyed the Jets.

 

Absolutely.

 

In addition, it feels like some posters have this idea that, somehow, when it is a bad weather game, it only affects Allen, not the opposing QB, or, apparently, anybody else on the field...