Career-worst single-game passer rating

[Stranded in Boston]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I haven't listened to any of the interviews.  Do we know he was throwing to Beasley?   I think it looked like he was throwing to Beas because he was closest to the ball when it was intercepted, but when I watched the replays, it looked to be like he was targeting Diggs in the back corner of the end zone.  I think that because Beas was cutting to open space toward the center of the field and Diggs was coming across to the corner.  It looks like Allen was throwing up the sideline and as the ball got deflected it went toward the spot where Beasley was.  

 

In either case, except for the fact that Allen didn't see the guys who could make deflections, I didn't have a lot of trouble with any of the INTs.  They just happened, and they all happened within minutes of each other.  

I agree, Shaw. INTs off deflected balls are basically flukes -- especially with a 6-5 QB. It was just one of those extra fluky days when lightning struck twice ... Also, on the overthrow to Beasley, it sure looked like illegal contact by the Falcon's DB: he chucked Beas 10-15 yards up the field, throwing his route timing off. Atlanta was lucky not to get flagged on that play. Anyhow, QB ratings aside, I see no cause for alarm.

[ExiledInIllinois]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Thats QBR

I think if they needed to pass more in the second half he would have and his passer rating would have climbed.  It was good to see the rushing TDs late in the game but those could have also been pasing TDs if Daboll wanted. 

Sorry but there was no excuse on the red zone pick. It was a bad decision.  Agree on the OP comments on #2 wit hehe added caveat that Beasley was held 10 yards downfield and #3. 

Yup.  Tip made it worse. 

[Shaw66]

43 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

With one single data point, this is honestly meaningless.  To prove the point, I just quickly went through Allen and Brady's game logs to see their records in games where their quarterback ratings were sub-65 (i.e., "Bad Games").  Brady is 10-23 (.303 winning percentage) and Allen is 2-9 (.182 win percentage).

Fair point.  I wasn't really trying to prove anything - I just thought the data were interesting, especially the fact that Allen was the only guy who'd won.  

 

I agree, the collection of all sub-65 is a better indicator of something, maybe QB resiliency.   I wouldn't be surprised if Brady were the all-time leader in that category.   Winning nearly a third of your games when you're basically awful is pretty good, indeed.  

[Punching Bag]

7 minutes ago, Stranded in Boston said:

I agree, Shaw. INTs off deflected balls are basically flukes -- especially with a 6-5 QB. It was just one of those extra fluky days when lightning struck twice ... Also, on the overthrow to Beasley, it sure looked like illegal contact by the Falcon's DB: he chucked Beas 10-15 yards up the field, throwing his route timing off. Atlanta was lucky not to get flagged on that play. Anyhow, QB ratings aside, I see no cause for alarm.

 

Interceptions are not all flukes - One of the ones Hyde got was because ball was tipped upwards like a volleyball to give him time to adjust to catch it.

This is clearly something practiced by defense.

Just now, Shaw66 said:

Fair point.  I wasn't really trying to prove anything - I just thought the data were interesting, especially the fact that Allen was the only guy who'd won.  

 

I agree, the collection of all sub-65 is a better indicator of something, maybe QB resiliency.   I wouldn't be surprised if Brady were the all-time leader in that category.   Winning nearly a third of your games when you're basically awful is pretty good, indeed.  

 

Or being favored by zebras who at time made up calls such as "tuck rule" or "just give it to them".

[Mark Vader]

Great!

 

Now that Allen has gotten this out of the way, there is nowhere to go but up!

 

At this point in the season, I'll take it! 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

IMO, really all this does is highlight what a useless stat passer rating is.

 

And for those who don't know, the formula for PR is:

PR = ((a + b + c + d)/6) x 100

where:

a = (COMP/ATT - .3) x 5

b = (YARDS/ATT - 3) x 0.25

c = (TD/ATT) x 20

d = 2.375 - (INT/ATT x 25?

ATT = Number of passing attempts

COMP = Number of completions

YDS = Passing yards

TD = Touchdown passes

INT = Interceptions

 

What's missing from all of this? Any context whatsoever.

 

The passer rating does not take numerous things into consideration, like strength of opponent, ability of WRs, difficulty of passes, whether the ball is being thrown away, dropped, or just poorly thrown, or anything else beyond just the basic numbers listed above. 

 

In my opinion, far more important than the useless PR stat, is the fact that Allen did not get rattled after any of these interceptions. His game was simply not anywhere near as bad as that PR number would suggest.

 

 

 

Context is missing from most stats. All that aren't twisted and complex beyond all reckoning, anyway.

 

Still an excellent useful stat that tells a lot about passer performance, though.

 

And that was a bad performance, or passing performance anyway. His running was excellent, as Shaw noted.. 4.62 yards per attempt. 42.31 completion percentage. 

 

The weather was bad, but Ryan competed 56.52%, for 8.57 YPA and 0 TDs and 0 INTs, and 197 yards, for an 84.9 passer rating. The conditions weren't impossible, and Ryan was getting a lot more pressure than Allen.

Edited January 4, 2022 by Thurman#1

[DrPJax]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

So, Josh Allen had a career-worst single-game passer rating.  17.   It's, like, phenomenally bad.  

 

I decided to take a look at the career-worst single-game passer ratings for the super-star quarterbacks.  They're interesting.  

 

The single most interesting thing about the best QBs and their worst days is that, although Allen's day was the second-worst passer rating in the group, Allen is the only guy whose team won the game.  Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, all lost their worst games.  Why is that?   Because Allen's running brought another dimension to the game that the super-stars didn't have.  

 

Here are the worst games for the super-stars:

 

Peyton:   With the Colts, Peyton threw three interceptions against the Dolphins in his rookie season, lost 41-6 and had a passer rating of 35.   With the Broncos, Peyton lost to the Chiefs 29-13, threw four interceptions and had a rating of 0, the lowest of any super-star. 

 

Brees:  With the Chargers, Brees had a passer rating of 27 against the Bears, threw one interception and lost 20-7.   With the Saints, his low was 37.6, losing to Atlanta 23-13.  

 

Brady's low with the Pats came in the 31-0 loss to the Bills.  He threw 4 ints and earned a rating of 22.5.  With Tampa, he lost to the Saints 38.3 and had a passer rating of 40.4, with 3 INTs.  

 

Rodgers made the Bills the only team to hang an all-time low passer rating on two different superstars, when he racked up a 34.3 rating by throwing three INTs in 21-13 loss.  

 

These are just silly little data points, of course, but I think it's more than pure accident.  Brees, Brady, and Rodgers were, like Allen, playing with good teams, but their teams weren't good enough to bail them out of their worst days.   Allen got the win when the super-stars didn't, not because his team bailed him out, but because ALLEN bailed himself out by being an integral part of the running attack that took over the game in the second half.  

 

Allen isn't throwing like the super-stars, but it isn't absurd to say that is throwing is excellent.  He isn't running like Vick or Lamar Jackson, but he's already established himself as a great running quarterback.   Allen's a much better runner than any of the best throwers, and he's a much better thrower than the best runners - Vick, Newton, and Jackson.   

 

 

Good points but let’s not forget the falcons role in is coming back.  Pitts was out the second half , the head coach pulls an all time dummy move punting from our 32! Then to top it off Ryan gets called for taunting when he in all honesty should  have had a td if he didn’t slide a Half yard tooo early.  
 

We caught lots of breaks in the second half.  Not many teams win a 4 turnover game with giving up a defensive score.  The odds were very stacked against us winning which , let’s hope is the low point of the season for our qb play. If we were playing any competent team , like the playoff teams , we don’t win that game.   Without that taunting call it’s a one possession game and anything could happen. Motor finally chose this game to have a 100 yard game , first in two years!  
 

Lol, it was the worst of times , it was the best of times! I am not sure Allen bailed himself out completely ; he did run the ball well but Daboll finally realized that running the ball with a back is legal and took the ball oit of Allens hands with the runs by motor and moss.    Allen is a great player but at times he just almost refuses to allow other other playmakers to be a part of the action. It’s like him taking that ball  from mckenzie yesterday., he made the first down but it was very close to a fumble as well. He joked about his reticence to hand the ball off during the post game presser , but if we are honest with ourselves, 17-18 turnovers in a year is hard to ignore from your franchise qb.
 

 It’s been an up and down season and now we hit the time of year where the consistent team will likely keep moving ahead. I hope its us, yet how many times do we keep hearing from Josh, “ I can’t do that” postgame !?   it’s year 4 and we still see what he “can’t do” a little too often. Kelly had some pretty bad games at times but he was surrounded by HOF guys on both sides of the ball and he got the ball to Reed , Thurman , et Al.  Josh needs that support , and needs to use what he has now a little more effectively.  Great season with making the playoffs , but now it’s about winning a SB as we are past just making an appearance postseason! 😊

[DrPJax]

8 hours ago, Stranded in Boston said:

I agree, Shaw. INTs off deflected balls are basically flukes -- especially with a 6-5 QB. It was just one of those extra fluky days when lightning struck twice ... Also, on the overthrow to Beasley, it sure looked like illegal contact by the Falcon's DB: he chucked Beas 10-15 yards up the field, throwing his route timing off. Atlanta was lucky not to get flagged on that play. Anyhow, QB ratings aside, I see no cause for alarm.

If you have an offense that at some point can give up a lead to a team like the falcons who had no playmakers( Pitts was oit second half) , can go dry and lose to a team like the jags ( as the pats hang 50 on them with a rookie Qb) , actually has had quite a few tipped balls this year , and has had a few terrible home games already ( colts) , and you see no reason for any concern , you are indeed a glass is more than half full type of guy! Lol!   Not a bad thing.!  
 

Just saying, we have struggled to win three in a row the second half of the season and will need 4 wins to get a SB title and our d still might have to face Henry on the road and Bb at home just to get that far!  I am a little more cautious this year than last year.    An impressive full game against the jets without all the turnovers would go a long way to setting up the teams confidence and focus as we enter that important run !   I really hope we see that and not a presser with Josh still explaining “ what he can’t do “! 😊🍸

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, DrPJax said:

If you have an offense that at some point can give up a lead to a team like the falcons who had no playmakers( Pitts was oit second half) , can go dry and lose to a team like the jags ( as the pats hang 50 on them with a rookie Qb) , actually has had quite a few tipped balls this year , and has had a few terrible home games already ( colts) , and you see no reason for any concern , you are indeed a glass is more than half full type of guy! Lol!   Not a bad thing.!  
 

Just saying, we have struggled to win three in a row the second half of the season and will need 4 wins to get a SB title and our d still might have to face Henry on the road and Bb at home just to get that far!  I am a little more cautious this year than last year.    An impressive full game against the jets without all the turnovers would go a long way to setting up the teams confidence and focus as we enter that important run !   I really hope we see that and not a presser with Josh still explaining “ what he can’t do “! 😊🍸

I think it's funny how people read posts and assume all kinds of things that weren't said. 

 

Where did I say there was no reason for concern?  I was just pointing out an interesting stat about Allen and some all-time greats, and suggesting that the Bills ability to win that game was based in part on Allen's unique skill set.  

 

If you ask me, the Bills don't look like the best team in football.  However, the way to win the Super Bowl is for your team to keep growing and getting stronger as the season and the tournament progress.  I'm not counting the Bills out.  Not yet.  

 

I know one thing.  The Bills have a quarterback who can win any game, at any level.  

[HappyDays]

It was the weirdest offensive performance we've seen in the Josh Allen era. Not particularly good, not particularly bad. Just really goofy for better or worse. It felt like McDermott the dad forced his two young sons Allen and Daboll to crack down and ace their first big science project last week, and as a reward for their success he let them stay up late eating cereal and watching Cartoon Network this week. Alright kids you had your harmless fun, now back to school.

Edited January 4, 2022 by HappyDays

[Shaw66]

27 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

It was the weirdest offensive performance we've seen in the Josh Allen era. Not particularly good, not particularly bad. Just really goofy for better or worse. It felt like McDermott the dad forced his two young sons Allen and Daboll to crack down and ace their first big science project last week, and as a reward for their success he let them stay up late eating cereal and watching Cartoon Network this week. Alright kids you had your harmless fun, now back to school.

Good description.

[DrPJax]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think it's funny how people read posts and assume all kinds of things that weren't said. 

 

Where did I say there was no reason for concern?  I was just pointing out an interesting stat about Allen and some all-time greats, and suggesting that the Bills ability to win that game was based in part on Allen's unique skill set.  

 

If you ask me, the Bills don't look like the best team in football.  However, the way to win the Super Bowl is for your team to keep growing and getting stronger as the season and the tournament progress.  I'm not counting the Bills out.  Not yet.  

 

I know one thing.  The Bills have a quarterback who can win any game, at any level.  

I Apologize, it’s easy to take things out of context on a board etc!  Was just commenting about no concern thinking it was a reference to the present.  I agree about Allen.  Great qb, great potential.  He still needs to grow , and frankly is making some mistakes that in his 4 th year I at least hoped as a fan we would not continue to see. He plays, I hope, to win a SB , and to get to that next level given his talent, it’s eventually going to become not acceptable to keep throwing out excuses like “ they get paid too”,  “ I can’t do that “ over and over.  
 

He is a quarter billion $ qb now, and continuing to force throws when we have seen him capable of better , is not a time to keep. Repeating rookie like mistakes.  Just saying , usually you are not going to win many playoff games , let alone a SB , with performances like yesterdays.  Love the guy, glad he is the Bills franchise qb.  Progress is never just a given tho ; at some point you do have to actually perform better.  For example, would you keep going to a medical student for your care or do you eventually expect them to graduate, become an md, get a real license and be responsible for quality results ?   At some point you can’t keep saying  , well I can’t keep missing that diagnosis !   Lol!  At some point excuses don’t cut it as you’re trained,, expected to be accurate, and you are held accountable!   That’s life man!  In that environment it’s a thing; see one, do one, teach one!  So as smart as someone might be , at some point you can’t make student mistakes.  Josh is so, so gifted, it’s time to expect results compatible with talent and experience. Everybody has bad days tho!  Been a less successful reg season for him just looking at ints and W’s. 
 

Hey, it’s just a game, and who cares really( but watching crazy obsessed fans at times makes you worry for them)    It has no effect on real life. Just saying , someone thinks it’s worth much $, so I would think someone is going to have real expectations or you may not actually get all that $ right!? There are not many careers where just hope and words are the final expected product !  Lol. 😀🍸 Been a Bills fan since ‘63, so it’s an enjoyable hobby/ pass-time for me. Josh is a quality person, hope the best for him!  

[BruceVilanch]

13 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

PR = ((a + b + c + d)/6) x 100

Don't fail me now PEMDAS!

[HOUSE]

Deflected passes should not be counts as INTS....I hate that

 

 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

Glennon passed 11 times all game for -10yards.

[oldmanfan]

Interesting stats from Shaw, not surprisingly.  It’s OK for Bills fans to acknowledge that Josh stunk throwing the ball last Sunday.  I suspect he’d be the first to say the same.  But his uniqueness as far as a running threat also won the game.

 

Josh still needs to work on taking what defenses give him.  He was great at that against the Pats, but wasn’t against the Falcons. 

[CodeMonkey]

His running is a big part of the offense.  Too big IMO. Nearly impossible to defense effectively.  But one day it is bound to catch up with him. And if that happens, the Bill offense fall off a cliff as Allen effectively IS the Bills offense.

[HamptonBillsfan]

That performance was a huge positive for the team. First, Josh will learn from trying to fit throws into tight windows, jeopardizing points in scoring territory. Secondly,it got Dabol to lean on a running game that now will make teams defend and in turn open things up for downfield opportunities as we head into the playoffs. Finally, the defense rose up after the turnovers, and shut down the Falcons without letting them score. Great confidence builder. 

[DCofNC]

21 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Allen is closer in ability to Steve Young (who he watched as a kid) to Vick, Newton and Jackson.

 

 

That’s probably the best comparison out there really.  Both really good at both facets of the game, Josh obviously a little bigger/stronger, but very similar skill sets. 

[DCofNC]

I think the whole QBR makes as much sense as Jackson over Allen for ProBowl.  I understand there were 3 picks, but the number should account for drops too if it’s going to be reflective of the QB.  If you go back and give Josh the passes his receivers flat out dropped while being hit in the hands his stat line is way different.  You are looking at probably 250 yards, 2 TD passes and 3 ints.  Of the ints, 1 I blame on his arm arrogance (see what I did there?), where he through the could just throw it through the defender at the line, 1 which he probably could/should have thrown away on the scramble and the other where Beas clearly wasn’t on the same page, I don’t know who to put them all on, but I credit him with 2 for sure.   Now he also might not have had the day running the ball that he did because he could have trusted somebody to catch a damn ball, but he strapped up and won that game.  That QBR stat is pure garbage.

 

Side note, is Davis the only receiver on the team that actually catches the ball anymore?  I’m cringing every time the ball goes anywhere but him.  Diggs, drop in the hands MULTIPLE times this year, dude looks like a dome only player this season.  Knox started off well and has lost it, Sanders has dropped a number of balls and Beasley just makes up his own mind on catching it or never putting his hands up, it’s crazy how bad the Receivers have regressed this year.  I think they got full of themselves.  I don’t know if Sanders has been a problem with it to, but there’s NO GRIT at all outside of Davis this year.  Last year, they were junk yard dogs, they got their ass beat in the playoffs and have never been the same since.   Hopefully, this year we see the opposite, they come into the playoffs to beat some ass and play the way we know they can.