Career-worst single-game passer rating

[billsfan1959]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Fan -  Thanks.  I think it's pretty clear from what you've posted that he was going to Diggs.  You can see that Diggs was heading to the open spot in the end zone.  Beasley was breaking open too, but he was in a more congested area.   I think the real give evidence, however, is the trajectory of the ball.  Where it was tipped, that ball was never coming down to Beasley.  In fact, if Allen were trying to throw to Beasley, he would have put the ball and waist level, and this throw was nowhere near that. 

 

I think you other point, which is something I said elsewhere, is the important point.   Allen connects on those miracle throws a lot.  This would have been just one more highlight-reel throw.  Josh just misjudged the defender, and the defender made a great play.   What makes Josh so great is that he makes that kind of play a lot; the occasional INT is the price you have to pay to let Josh dazzle you the other times.   Whether it's 95%, I don't know, but it's a lot.  I said it in comparison to Brett Favre, whose game was marked by the same trait.   He had a great arm, like Allen, and they share the same arm arrogance.   The arm arrogance is what makes them great.   

 

Agreed on all points. That is why I don't let a game like that cause me any concern when it comes to Allen.

 

He may be the most physically gifted QB to play in the NFL, and possesses the football IQ, work ethic, and competetiveness to make the most of those gifts. He is still learning and continuing to grow, and he will get better and better in his decision making. But his style of play will never change, nor should it. It will result in plays like that on occasion but, in the end, it is what will make him great.

 

Edited January 5, 2022 by billsfan1959

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I wonder

 

 

What is the worst rating a QB had in a WIN 

 

and a resounding WIN at that. 

[Shaw66]

24 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I wonder

 

 

What is the worst rating a QB had in a WIN 

 

and a resounding WIN at that. 

Here's a wikipedia article:   Zero

 

Great stuff.  It lists every game through last season where a QB had a passer rating of zero.   Among other things, it says these things:

 

The Bills have held more QBs to a zero passer rating than any team in pro football.  

 

Only six QBs have had a passer rating of zero and won the game.  Jack Kemp was the first to do it, when he and the Bills beat the Oilers in 1965.  

 

"Gary Keithley and the St. Louis Cardinals defeated Bob Lee and the Atlanta Falcons (1973)."   Both QBs had a passer rating of zero.  

 

No one has won with a passer rating of zero since 1976, so Allen winning with a 17 is probably a pretty good number in the modern, passing era.   

 

Twice there have been some games where the QB had a zero, got benched, and his replacement also put up a zero.  Namath and Bradshaw were the starters!

 

"Twelve QBs have had a zero passer rating and also earned a perfect (158.3) passer rating during their careers: Otto Graham, Johnny Unitas, Joe Namath, Terry Bradshaw, Len Dawson, Bob Griese, James Harris, Bob Lee, Dan Fouts, Craig Morton, Eli Manning, and Peyton Manning."

[billsfan1959]

9 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I wonder

 

 

What is the worst rating a QB had in a WIN 

 

and a resounding WIN at that. 

 

Here are a few that were worse ratings than Allen and still won:

 

1. Oct. 24, 2005, Michael Vick, Falcons (11-26, 116 yds, 0 TD, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 16.35) beat the Jets 27-14

2. Oct. 11, 2009Derek Anderson, Browns (2-17, 23 yds, 0 TD, 1 INTs, and a passer rating of 15.07) beat Trent Edwards and the Bills 6-3

3. Oct. 16, 2006, Rex Grossman, Bears (14-37, 144 yds, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 2 fumbles, and a passer rating of 10.25) beat the Cardinals 24-23

4. October 19, 1975, Ken Anderson, Bengals (4-19, 75 yards, 0TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 3.9) beat the Raiders 14-10.  Kenny Stabler went 8-24 for 113 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 9.9

5. Dec. 2, 2012, Mark Sanchez, Jets (10-27, 97 yds, 0 TD, 3 INTs, a passer rating of 8.33) beat the Cardinals

6. Oct. 10, 2010, Todd Collins, Bears (6-16, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 6.25) beat the Panthers 23-6

7. Dec. 3, 2006, Rex Grossman, Bears (6-19, 34 yds, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 1.32) beat the Vikings 23-13

 

Rex Grossman made the list twice - in the same year 🤣

 

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2019/08/21/the-worst-quarterback-wins-games-of-the-new-millennium/

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Here are a few that were worse ratings than Allen and still won:

 

1. Oct. 24, 2005, Michael Vick, Falcons (11-26, 116 yds, 0 TD, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 16.35) beat the Jets 27-14

2. Oct. 11, 2009Derek Anderson, Browns (2-17, 23 yds, 0 TD, 1 INTs, and a passer rating of 15.07) beat Trent Edwards and the Bills 6-3

3. Oct. 16, 2006, Rex Grossman, Bears (14-37, 144 yds, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 2 fumbles, and a passer rating of 10.25) beat the Cardinals 24-23

4. October 19, 1975, Ken Anderson, Bengals (4-19, 75 yards, 0TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 3.9) beat the Raiders 14-10.  Kenny Stabler went 8-24 for 113 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 9.9

5. Dec. 2, 2012, Mark Sanchez, Jets (10-27, 97 yds, 0 TD, 3 INTs, a passer rating of 8.33) beat the Cardinals

6. Oct. 10, 2010, Todd Collins, Bears (6-16, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 6.25) beat the Panthers 23-6

7. Dec. 3, 2006, Rex Grossman, Bears (6-19, 34 yds, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 1.32) beat the Vikings 23-13

 

Rex Grossman made the list twice - in the same year 🤣

 

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2019/08/21/the-worst-quarterback-wins-games-of-the-new-millennium/

Trent's passer rating against the Browns was a blistering 52.  

[Jeffbigalls]

Throw the ball in the ground 40 times and you will have a 39.58 

[Motorin']

58 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Here's a wikipedia article:   Zero

 

Great stuff.  It lists every game through last season where a QB had a passer rating of zero.   Among other things, it says these things:

 

The Bills have held more QBs to a zero passer rating than any team in pro football.  

 

Only six QBs have had a passer rating of zero and won the game.  Jack Kemp was the first to do it, when he and the Bills beat the Oilers in 1965.  

 

"Gary Keithley and the St. Louis Cardinals defeated Bob Lee and the Atlanta Falcons (1973)."   Both QBs had a passer rating of zero.  

 

No one has won with a passer rating of zero since 1976, so Allen winning with a 17 is probably a pretty good number in the modern, passing era.   

 

Twice there have been some games where the QB had a zero, got benched, and his replacement also put up a zero.  Namath and Bradshaw were the starters!

 

"Twelve QBs have had a zero passer rating and also earned a perfect (158.3) passer rating during their careers: Otto Graham, Johnny Unitas, Joe Namath, Terry Bradshaw, Len Dawson, Bob Griese, James Harris, Bob Lee, Dan Fouts, Craig Morton, Eli Manning, and Peyton Manning."

 

My oh my was 1965 a good year for the Buffalo Bills!

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Here are a few that were worse ratings than Allen and still won:

 

1. Oct. 24, 2005, Michael Vick, Falcons (11-26, 116 yds, 0 TD, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 16.35) beat the Jets 27-14

2. Oct. 11, 2009Derek Anderson, Browns (2-17, 23 yds, 0 TD, 1 INTs, and a passer rating of 15.07) beat Trent Edwards and the Bills 6-3

3. Oct. 16, 2006, Rex Grossman, Bears (14-37, 144 yds, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 2 fumbles, and a passer rating of 10.25) beat the Cardinals 24-23

4. October 19, 1975, Ken Anderson, Bengals (4-19, 75 yards, 0TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 3.9) beat the Raiders 14-10.  Kenny Stabler went 8-24 for 113 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 9.9

5. Dec. 2, 2012, Mark Sanchez, Jets (10-27, 97 yds, 0 TD, 3 INTs, a passer rating of 8.33) beat the Cardinals

6. Oct. 10, 2010, Todd Collins, Bears (6-16, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, and a passer rating of 6.25) beat the Panthers 23-6

7. Dec. 3, 2006, Rex Grossman, Bears (6-19, 34 yds, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 1.32) beat the Vikings 23-13

 

Rex Grossman made the list twice - in the same year 🤣

 

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2019/08/21/the-worst-quarterback-wins-games-of-the-new-millennium/

 

Grossman "led" the Bears to the Super Bowl that year!

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, RJ (not THAT RJ) said:

 

Grossman "led" the Bears to the Super Bowl that year!

 

I honestly didn't even remember Grossman and the Bears going to the SB. That is hilarious!

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

Just now, billsfan1959 said:

 

I honestly didn't even remember Grossman and the Bears going to the SB. That is hilarious!

 

For even more giggles, the Bears crushed the JP-"led" Bills that year as well, 40-7. 

[BigDingus]

But what was the GOAT Nathan Peterman's lowest Passer Rating?

 

Failure to include that in the original post shows complete lack of respect for a first ballot HOFer.

[BigDingus]

Just found some interesting info on Wikipedia...

 

Nathan Peterman is one of only 72 players to post a 0.0 Passer Rating when he did it against the Ravens in 2018.

 

Another Bills QB, Jack Kemp, was the first player to post a 0.0 Passer Rating & win the game (1965 vs the Houston Oilers).

 

Of the 72 QB's to post a 0.0 Passer Rating, 8 did so against the Bills. Those 8 players were:

 

1. John Hadl - Chargers 

2. Cotton Davidson - Raiders 

3. Don Trull - Patriots

4. Joe Namath - Jets 

5. Terry Bradshaw - Steelers

6. Cliff Stoudt - Steelers (same game as Bradshaw)

7. Warren Moon - Oilers 

8. Joey Harrington - Dolphins

 

Meanwhile, aside from Kemp & Peterman, Bills QB Al Dorow had a 0.0 Passer Rating against the Oilers in 1962.

 

Sorry, just enjoy some random stat history related to the Bills 😁

 

Edit: Just saw that Shaw already posted the Wiki article... I suck.

 

Edited January 6, 2022 by BigDingus

[Rocky Landing]

23 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I certainly understand why you aren't going to play that game. You wouldn't find games with passer ratings that awful that are good passing performances. And no, I didn't expect you to scan stat lines. You'd be looking for a chimera. I expected you to concede the point. When a guy has a passer rating that awful, you won't find good passing games. Which is exactly my point.

 

As for your point about Mac and Josh having ratings of 84.0 and 75.0 ... did you actually read my post? Apparently not. You might want to try that before you answer a post next time. I specifically said, "small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant" in one game samples. Your pointing out a difference of 9 points when I specifically gave an example of 10 points not being significant shows you either didn't read it or totally missed the point. I went on to say that vast differences like the one between Allen's 17 and Ryan's 84.0 are massively significant even in one game samples.

 

When you talk about running, you are again missing the point. Passer rating has zero running component. It looks only at the passing game. That's why it is called passer rating rather than quarterback rating. Agreed that Allen ran far better than Ryan. His passing, though, was much much less effective. Ryan had zero INTs and Allen had three. The Bills played a lot better, but there's a reason that the Bills essentially stopped passing after the 3rd INT. Allen was having a bad passing game.

Of course I read your post. I just don't happen to agree with it. And let's be clear-- you were responding to me, not the other way around.

 

"...small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant"

In the Pats* game I referenced, Allen, with a lesser passer rating, was actually a significantly better passer than Mac Jones. And in a game where Matt Ryan had a much better passer rating than Allen, Ryan struggled to convert on third down, whereas Allen converted, through the air, several times, as well as a fourth down conversion, and a two point conversion. Those are just a few examples of context missing from the PR stat. In fact, with the exception of Allen's three INTs, which all happened over the course of four consecutive plays, I submit that Allen was the better passer for most of the game. 

 

Here's another comparison: in Nate Peterman's horrendous 5 INT game vs the Chargers back in 2017, he had a passer rating of 17.9. Think that and Allen's performances were of similar caliber? Not even remotely.

 

My takeaway? The passer rating as an average over the course of an entire season is useful. For use in evaluating a QB for a single game? It's worthy of being ignored.

 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2022 by Rocky Landing

[Thurman#1]

On 1/5/2022 at 8:58 PM, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

Thurm and Shaw - always appreciate your posts.

 

Allen was not throwing to Beasley, he was throwing to Diggs.

 

Here is the play and replay from the game.

 

 

Here is Allen's explanation:

 

 

As usual, I haven't been able to access the All 22 yet for this game. However, when I can, I will post it. My guess is that when we see the view from the endzone, we will see it was not as bad of a decision as many people think. It was the same type of play we applaud Allen for the 95% of the time that it works. Allen said as much in the video above when he said "You hate those interceptions, but those are the atta boys too where you make a good play."

 

If you look at the trajectory from where Allen is and where the defender tipped it, it looks to me like the ball would have gotten to the back of the EZ to Diggs. Allen had Diggs breaking open and the defender made a great play, fully extending and getting his fingertips on the ball, to deflect it. IMO, if he does not tip that ball, it is a TD and we would be talking about what a great play it was.

 

 

 

 

Fair enough.

 

I said above I thought it was 90:10 a play to Beasley and that one reason was that Diggs was so well-covered. Allen says he wanted to give Diggs a chance.

 

So now, knowing that he was going to Diggs, I think it was a really bad choice to throw that one. It's a shame.

 

Thanks for the correction. You're obviously right, and I was clearly wrong.

[billsfan1959]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Fair enough.

 

I said above I thought it was 90:10 a play to Beasley and that one reason was that Diggs was so well-covered. Allen says he wanted to give Diggs a chance.

 

So now, knowing that he was going to Diggs, I think it was a really bad choice to throw that one. It's a shame.

 

Thanks for the correction. You're obviously right, and I was clearly wrong.

 

It's all good, brother. I wasn't correcting you as much as clarifying. I believe most people were thinking the same thing, including me, until I listened to Allen - and then went back and looked at it again.

 

As I said, I appreciate your posts 

[Thurman#1]

On 1/6/2022 at 2:58 PM, Rocky Landing said:

Of course I read your post. I just don't happen to agree with it. And let's be clear-- you were responding to me, not the other way around.

 

"...small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant"

In the Pats* game I referenced, Allen, with a lesser passer rating, was actually a significantly better passer than Mac Jones. And in a game where Matt Ryan had a much better passer rating than Allen, Ryan struggled to convert on third down, whereas Allen converted, through the air, several times, as well as a fourth down conversion, and a two point conversion. Those are just a few examples of context missing from the PR stat. In fact, with the exception of Allen's three INTs, which all happened over the course of four consecutive plays, I submit that Allen was the better passer for most of the game. 

 

Here's another comparison: in Nate Peterman's horrendous 5 INT game vs the Chargers back in 2017, he had a passer rating of 17.9. Think that and Allen's performances were of similar caliber? Not even remotely.

 

My takeaway? The passer rating as an average over the course of an entire season is useful. For use in evaluating a QB for a single game? It's worthy of being ignored.

 

 

 

 

You want to argue that Allen "was actually a significantly better " passer than Allen in the first Pats game? That's not an "actual" thing. In fact, it's an opinion that just doesn't make much sense. Mac in that game was asked by his coach to throw only three passes. He completed two of them. The other was perfectly on target but Dane Jackson raked it out the WR's hands. There is no particular reason to think that Allen proved himself "significantly better" in that first Pats game than Jones did. Allen did pretty decently under the conditions to come out at 15/30 with a TD. But he simply wasn't very efficient overall. Mac did quite well in that game in terms of what he was asked by his coach to do in the passing game.

 

In their careers, of course, Allen's a ton better than Mac has shown himself to be. But in that game, Mac did just fine.

 

As for your comparison of Allen's one game with Peterman's one game, that doesn't work. You ask if Allen's and Peterman's games were of similar quality and the answer is absolutely yes. They were both really bad games. Lowest one or two percent. Passer rating shows that just fine. People remember that Peterman had five INTs, as they should, but they forget that one hit DiMarco right in the hands and he tapped it up into the air like a volleyball player setting someone up for a spike. And that one of the other INTs was the result of him being hit as he threw. Both were really bad games.

 

"Better passer for most of the game?" That's your argument? Sure, you take out the bad passes out and he passed pretty well, but when you're assessing a game you don't ignore part of it, the good part or the bad part.

 

And yeah, I replied to you. Thing is, I actually read your post before replying. I have grave doubts that you had read mine at the time when you replied to me. Again, I said that "small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not significant." Responding to that, you said, "In the Bills' first game with the Pats*, Mac & Cheese had an 84.0 passer rating. Josh had a passer rating of 75.0. So, we should assume that Mac & Cheese was the better QB that day? He threw the ball a grand total of three times for 19 yards, and zero TDs. That 84.0 is a pretty silly number without context."

 

The context was that I'd said that small differences weren't significant and gave an example of a 10% difference as an example. You then gave an example of a 9% difference. You either didn't read it or totally missed the point. You're clearly a bright guy, so I honestly didn't think you had missed the point.

 

In your defense, your latest post, this one, does address the original point. The original reply gives an example gives zero evidence of having done so.

 

Game-size samples of passer rating are easily compared. Reasonable to say that the smaller sample size means the game numbers are less precise than season numbers which tend to have much larger sample size. But less subtle differences such as the difference between a dreadful game, a mediocre game, a good game and a terrific game are easily pointed out by passer rating just as they are by observation.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Thurman#1

[FireChans]

On 1/6/2022 at 12:58 AM, Rocky Landing said:

Of course I read your post. I just don't happen to agree with it. And let's be clear-- you were responding to me, not the other way around.

 

"...small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant"

In the Pats* game I referenced, Allen, with a lesser passer rating, was actually a significantly better passer than Mac Jones. And in a game where Matt Ryan had a much better passer rating than Allen, Ryan struggled to convert on third down, whereas Allen converted, through the air, several times, as well as a fourth down conversion, and a two point conversion. Those are just a few examples of context missing from the PR stat. In fact, with the exception of Allen's three INTs, which all happened over the course of four consecutive plays, I submit that Allen was the better passer for most of the game. 

 

Here's another comparison: in Nate Peterman's horrendous 5 INT game vs the Chargers back in 2017, he had a passer rating of 17.9. Think that and Allen's performances were of similar caliber? Not even remotely.

 

My takeaway? The passer rating as an average over the course of an entire season is useful. For use in evaluating a QB for a single game? It's worthy of being ignored.

 

 

 

Woah woah woah, are you arguing that Josh had a better game than Matt Ryan did “passing?”

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

It's all good, brother. I wasn't correcting you as much as clarifying. I believe most people were thinking the same thing, including me, until I listened to Allen - and then went back and looked at it again.

 

As I said, I appreciate your posts 

 

 

I appreciate yours as well.

 

Your post with examples of wins with low pass ratings was a great example of a really interesting post.

 

By the way, I have great memories of NC. A buddy of mine was going to Duke Med School when I was working in DC quite a while ago, and I used to go down often. A really nice place. I still remember going out for a midnight run one completely deserted night in downtown Durham around 2:00 a.m. A cop was sitting next to the road waiting for speeders and he opened the window and waved me over. I got a bit nervous, but he says, "Hey, you're going at a pretty good pace. I used the gun on you and you clocked nine miles an hour." And he showed me the speed gun, with "09" on it.

 

Cracked me up. It just seemed the people were so nice there.

 

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Scott7975]

On 1/4/2022 at 10:57 AM, Shaw66 said:

You're saying some things that I've said - he still has to grow, he has to get over taking some of the chances he takes.  But when I hear you saying it, I realize that to some extent it's wishful thinking.  To some extent, yes, he'll continue to learn and to make better decisions.  But many people have said, and I think they're correct, that Allen has the gunslinger mentality that Favre had.  Allen thinks he can make every play, just like Favre thought he could, and the coaches never were able to coach it out of Favre.   I think, in fact, that his coaches decided they didn't want to train it out of him.

 

I think the reality of Josh Allen is that he can make plays that no one else can, so he goes for them.   Coaches of other QBs tell them not to make those throws, and other QBs learn not to make them because they have a low probability of success.   Favre was, and I think Allen is, different.   I think the probability of success on Allen's crazy throws is pretty high.  That's exactly why his highlight reel is so spectacular.  Those late throws from the sideline into the middle of the field that the commentators say you shouldn't make?   Well, Allen makes them and completes them.  Favre's greatness was, and I think Allen's greatness is, precisely because what are low probability throws for everyone else are relatively high probability for Favre and Allen.

 

So, when we see Allen force the throw to Beasley or Diggs (whoever the target was) and it's tipped and intercepted, we say to ourselves "Allen has to stop taking those risks."  What we don't think about is the completions he gets (that no one else gets) by taking those risks.  

 

I have no idea how one would ever compile the stats, but it would be interesting to look at all of Allen's high-risk throws and look at his passer rating on them.  That would be the real measure.  What is his completion percentage?   How many TDs is getting on high-risk throws?  How many INTs?   How many first downs is he getting?   

 

So, as much as we don't like those ugly turnovers, I would guess that it's part of his game that we really don't want to go away.  Not because we like the turnovers, but because the only way to stop them is take part of what makes Allen great, put it in a bottle and put it on a shelf somewhere.  Take away Allen's ability to make jaw-dropping plays and you have Kirk Cousins.  I don't want to make that trade. 

 

 

 

I say it all the time here... if people want to take away what they like to call "Sugar High Josh" or "Hero Ball"  then they are going to also take away a big part of what makes Allen special.  All those amazing throws he makes don't happen without "Sugar High Hero Ball Josh."

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I appreciate yours as well.

 

Your post with examples of wins with low pass ratings was a great example of a really interesting post.

 

By the way, I have great memories of NC. A buddy of mine was going to Duke Med School when I was working in DC quite a while ago, and I used to go down often. A really nice place. I still remember going out for a midnight run one completely deserted night in downtown Durham around 2:00 a.m. A cop was sitting next to the road waiting for speeders and he opened the window and waved me over. I got a bit nervous, but he says, "Hey, you're going at a pretty good pace. I used the gun on you and you clocked nine miles an hour." And he showed me the speed gun, with "09" on it.

 

Cracked me up. It just seemed the people were so nice there.

 

 

Good story 🤣. I ended up in NC in the mid 80s as a result of my job. Much of NC was just like that. Met my wife here and we live in Wake Forest, about 20 minutes from Durham. It has grown a lot since I first moved here, but still a great place.

 

My son, who never spent any time in the Buffalo area (other than to visit relatives), grew up to be a die hard Bills fan as well. Poor bastard. Actually, he's now grown, married, and living in another state, but we still talk 2-3 times a week and after every game. To bring this post back to being on topic, he was the one who told me to watch Allen's interview on that pass attempt to Diggs.

 

He and I were on the phone together the night the Bills drafted Allen and we were both happy. His earliest recollections of the Bills were after their SB run and most of his time as a fan has been miserable. I think what makes me happiest about the Bills right now is that my son has Allen and a true SB contending team to root for.

 

Go Bills!

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by billsfan1959

[CincyBillsFan]

On 1/5/2022 at 11:03 AM, Shaw66 said:

Fan -  Thanks.  I think it's pretty clear from what you've posted that he was going to Diggs.  You can see that Diggs was heading to the open spot in the end zone.  Beasley was breaking open too, but he was in a more congested area.   I think the real give evidence, however, is the trajectory of the ball.  Where it was tipped, that ball was never coming down to Beasley.  In fact, if Allen were trying to throw to Beasley, he would have put the ball and waist level, and this throw was nowhere near that. 

 

I think you other point, which is something I said elsewhere, is the important point.   Allen connects on those miracle throws a lot.  This would have been just one more highlight-reel throw.  Josh just misjudged the defender, and the defender made a great play.   What makes Josh so great is that he makes that kind of play a lot; the occasional INT is the price you have to pay to let Josh dazzle you the other times.   Whether it's 95%, I don't know, but it's a lot.  I said it in comparison to Brett Favre, whose game was marked by the same trait.   He had a great arm, like Allen, and they share the same arm arrogance.   The arm arrogance is what makes them great.   

When watching the video you see Diggs slip and fall and then later another WR (not sure who - maybe Davis) slips and falls.  The footing really impacted the WR's on Sunday.

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

19 hours ago, FireChans said:

Woah woah woah, are you arguing that Josh had a better game than Matt Ryan did “passing?”

Not the entire game, no. But, I'll say this, I rewatched just the first quarter, and for the duration of that quarter, yes, Allen was the better passer. Ryan had a much better completion percentage, but all of his completions were on short throws, most behind the LOS. And Ryan threw incomplete on both of their third downs. Allen threw for more yards, had longer completions, and converted all of the Bills' third downs (three) through the air. And regarding his incompletions, he had to throw the ball away twice, and had five throws hit his receivers right in their hands. Matt Ryan also got sacked twice on passing downs. That is just the first quarter, sure. I'm not going to go back and scrutinize the rest of the QB play in that game, but suffice to say that in my opinion, Allen was the better passer for at least a good portion of that game.

 

And listen, a couple days ago, Joe B. of the Athletic gave Allen a grade "B" in that game. Would he have given him that grade if his passing was a solid, low "F" ? I don't think so. I mean, come on, how enlightening do you guys really think that number 17.0 is?

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Not the entire game, no. But, I'll say this, I rewatched just the first quarter, and for the duration of that quarter, yes, Allen was the better passer. Ryan had a much better completion percentage, but all of his completions were on short throws, most behind the LOS. And Ryan threw incomplete on both of their third downs. Allen threw for more yards, had longer completions, and converted all of the Bills' third downs (three) through the air. And regarding his incompletions, he had to throw the ball away twice, and had five throws hit his receivers right in their hands. Matt Ryan also got sacked twice on passing downs. That is just the first quarter, sure. I'm not going to go back and scrutinize the rest of the QB play in that game, but suffice to say that in my opinion, Allen was the better passer for at least a good portion of that game.

 

And listen, a couple days ago, Joe B. of the Athletic gave Allen a grade "B" in that game. Would he have given him that grade if his passing was a solid, low "F" ? I don't think so. I mean, come on, how enlightening do you guys really think that number 17.0 is?

 

 

An awful lot of his hitting guys in the hands and getting drops was because while lately his touch has gotten better and better, it about disappeared in that game. He was whipping the ball in even when he didn't have to, and on cold days if you do that, you'll get a lot of drops.

 

Agreed that Josh had parts of the game where he was better than Ryan. But again, just take out the five interceptions and Peterman actually passed pretty well in that game. He played very well for parts of it. Part of the game doesn't matter squat. If you want to evaluate a guy's passing game, it's really simple. You evaluate the passing game. You don't evaluate his passing in part of the game and leave out the good parts or the bad parts depending what POV you're selling.

 

And Joe B. was rating Allen's whole game. Including the running, which was excellent. He would likely have given a much lower ranking if he were only looking at the passing game.

 

Allen's a terrific QB, nobody with any sense argues that. But he had a bad game passing. The Bills showed that even when they couldn't count on Allen in the passing game, they could find a way to win. It was really great to see.

Edited January 8, 2022 by Thurman#1

[UKBillFan]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

An awful lot of his hitting guys in the hands and getting drops was because while lately his touch has gotten better and better, it about disappeared in that game. He was whipping the ball in even when he didn't have to, and on cold days if you do that, you'll get a lot of drops.

 

Agreed that Josh had parts of the game where he was better than Ryan. But again, just take out the five interceptions and Peterman actually passed pretty well in that game. He played very well for parts of it. Part of the game doesn't matter squat. If you want to evaluate a guy's passing game, it's really simple. You evaluate the passing game. You don't evaluate his passing in part of the game and leave out the good parts or the bad parts depending what POV you're selling.

 

And Joe B. was rating Allen's whole game. Including the running, which was excellent. He would likely have given a much lower ranking if he were only looking at the passing game.

 

Allen's a terrific QB, nobody with any sense argues that. But he had a bad game passing. The Bills showed that even when they couldn't count on Allen in the passing game, they could find a way to win. It was really great to see.

 

Though we won because of Josh's running game so, even though his passing was poor last week, the win was still down to him.

[Since1981]

At Tampa half they collectively realized that if Josh has to run, jump or fly…he has to. Held back at JAX. Mark Sanchez kept talking about his QB stats ratings—-says as much about Mr. Sanchez as Allen. Glad our boy is not a stat watcher. 

[FireChans]

On 1/6/2022 at 12:58 AM, Rocky Landing said:

Of course I read your post. I just don't happen to agree with it. And let's be clear-- you were responding to me, not the other way around.

 

"...small differences in passer rating, say the difference between an 85 and a 95, are not signficant"

In the Pats* game I referenced, Allen, with a lesser passer rating, was actually a significantly better passer than Mac Jones. And in a game where Matt Ryan had a much better passer rating than Allen, Ryan struggled to convert on third down, whereas Allen converted, through the air, several times, as well as a fourth down conversion, and a two point conversion. Those are just a few examples of context missing from the PR stat. In fact, with the exception of Allen's three INTs, which all happened over the course of four consecutive plays, I submit that Allen was the better passer for most of the game. 

 

Here's another comparison: in Nate Peterman's horrendous 5 INT game vs the Chargers back in 2017, he had a passer rating of 17.9. Think that and Allen's performances were of similar caliber? Not even remotely.

 

My takeaway? The passer rating as an average over the course of an entire season is useful. For use in evaluating a QB for a single game? It's worthy of being ignored.

 

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Not the entire game, no. But, I'll say this, I rewatched just the first quarter, and for the duration of that quarter, yes, Allen was the better passer. Ryan had a much better completion percentage, but all of his completions were on short throws, most behind the LOS. And Ryan threw incomplete on both of their third downs. Allen threw for more yards, had longer completions, and converted all of the Bills' third downs (three) through the air. And regarding his incompletions, he had to throw the ball away twice, and had five throws hit his receivers right in their hands. Matt Ryan also got sacked twice on passing downs. That is just the first quarter, sure. I'm not going to go back and scrutinize the rest of the QB play in that game, but suffice to say that in my opinion, Allen was the better passer for at least a good portion of that game.

 

And listen, a couple days ago, Joe B. of the Athletic gave Allen a grade "B" in that game. Would he have given him that grade if his passing was a solid, low "F" ? I don't think so. I mean, come on, how enlightening do you guys really think that number 17.0 is?

I mean, if you exclude all his bad plays, he didn't play all that bad lol.

 

I really don't know why folks are so hung up on this. Allen's passing numbers were really freaking bad. His output was really bad. His passer rating reflects that. It's working as intended. 

[CincyBillsFan]

7 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Not the entire game, no. But, I'll say this, I rewatched just the first quarter, and for the duration of that quarter, yes, Allen was the better passer. Ryan had a much better completion percentage, but all of his completions were on short throws, most behind the LOS. And Ryan threw incomplete on both of their third downs. Allen threw for more yards, had longer completions, and converted all of the Bills' third downs (three) through the air. And regarding his incompletions, he had to throw the ball away twice, and had five throws hit his receivers right in their hands. Matt Ryan also got sacked twice on passing downs. That is just the first quarter, sure. I'm not going to go back and scrutinize the rest of the QB play in that game, but suffice to say that in my opinion, Allen was the better passer for at least a good portion of that game.

 

And listen, a couple days ago, Joe B. of the Athletic gave Allen a grade "B" in that game. Would he have given him that grade if his passing was a solid, low "F" ? I don't think so. I mean, come on, how enlightening do you guys really think that number 17.0 is?

On the 4 TD drives Allen threw the ball very well converting a number of 3rd downs along the way.  Ryan benefited from a lot of YAC.  I'm to lazy to look it up but more then half of Ryan's passing yards had to be YAC.

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

 

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

An awful lot of his hitting guys in the hands and getting drops was because while lately his touch has gotten better and better, it about disappeared in that game. He was whipping the ball in even when he didn't have to, and on cold days if you do that, you'll get a lot of drops.

 

Agreed that Josh had parts of the game where he was better than Ryan. But again, just take out the five interceptions and Peterman actually passed pretty well in that game. He played very well for parts of it. Part of the game doesn't matter squat. If you want to evaluate a guy's passing game, it's really simple. You evaluate the passing game. You don't evaluate his passing in part of the game and leave out the good parts or the bad parts depending what POV you're selling.

 

And Joe B. was rating Allen's whole game. Including the running, which was excellent. He would likely have given a much lower ranking if he were only looking at the passing game.

 

Allen's a terrific QB, nobody with any sense argues that. But he had a bad game passing. The Bills showed that even when they couldn't count on Allen in the passing game, they could find a way to win. It was really great to see.

 

Woah, dude, you're kinda hitting a sore spot with me, here. I was at that game in Los Angeles. And, after spending a lot of money to watch historically bad football (from the 14th row by the 40 yard line, no less!) I have consistently maintained that those five interceptions only told half the story of how bad Late Nate was in that game. ..anyway...

 

I can't keep going back and forth disagreeing with you, when we're really not that far apart in the first place. I don't want to argue, just for the sake of arguing.  It is a fair point on how hard Allen was throwing the football. But, I have to say that in that first quarter, Motor's drop wasn't a rifle at all-- just a drop. Diggs' drop in the end zone absolutely should have been pulled in (from the slo-mo, looked more like a question of hand-placement-- certainly uncharacteristic of Diggs). The throw to Beasley was a cannon shot. But, that was the underneath route Beasley was running. It's a throw they've completed a thousand times, and the route required it. Beasley knew what was coming.

 

We're really not in a huge disagreement here. And I never said, or implied that Allen had a great day passing. And I'm obviously aware that Joe Bus was looking at his whole game, and "would likely have given a much lower ranking if he were only looking at the passing game." But, Thurman, two things: one, if he were only looking at the passing game, he still likely wouldn't have given him an "F" (a 17.0 would certainly imply an "F"!). And two, to say that Joe Bus was "looking at his whole game," is really implying that he was applying context to Allen's performance.

 

And that has been my point this entire discussion. As has been pointed out, all stats lack context, sure. But the passer rating is a collection of stats that eschews context. There are too many things the stat ignores (strength of pass rush, drops, throw-aways, situational awareness, check-downs, ability to avoid a sack, third, and fourth down conversions, length of pass, etc) to make it useful as a single game stat. Allen had a ton of these contextual variables in this game. Over the course of the season, I assume these variables average out between QBs, but for one game? That "career-worst single-game passer rating" does not come close to denoting his worst game passing. 

[Rocky Landing]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

I mean, if you exclude all his bad plays, he didn't play all that bad lol.

 

I really don't know why folks are so hung up on this. Allen's passing numbers were really freaking bad. His output was really bad. His passer rating reflects that. It's working as intended. 

"Hung up?" I have no idea what that even means.

 

We disagree on the efficacy of the passer rating as a single-game stat. I rewatched the game, and don't agree that Allen had a bottom-floor, Nate-Peterman-bad, career-worst day passing, as his PR would reflect.

 

And seriously, to "exclude all his bad plays, he didn't play all that bad lol." is a lot different than applying context to Allen's performance, but I'm pretty sure you know that. Let's just agree to disagree.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:

"Hung up?" I have no idea what that even means.

 

We disagree on the efficacy of the passer rating as a single-game stat. I rewatched the game, and don't agree that Allen had a bottom-floor, Nate-Peterman-bad, career-worst day passing, as his PR would reflect.

 

And seriously, to "exclude all his bad plays, he didn't play all that bad lol." is a lot different than applying context to Allen's performance, but I'm pretty sure you know that. Let's just agree to disagree.

Applying context? I don’t understand. Tossing 3 picks in a row, including 1 to start the third Q after your other two led to points and allowed a terrible team to stay in the game and take the league is quite possibly the WORST context you could throw a pick in outside of a game-sealing pick with no time left.

 

Let me put this in context, what if Devin Singletary didn’t have a good day and the Bills lost. Would we be sitting here and saying, well Allen didn’t pass the ball that bad considering the context? No. 
 

let’s put it another way. If Josh wasn’t so dang effective running the ball, his game would have been HORRIFIC, especially in light of playing a piss poor team like the Falcons.

 

I would love to see what QB you believe had a worse performance than Allen passing but had a better passer rating . 

 

[Rocky Landing]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Applying context? I don’t understand. Tossing 3 picks in a row, including 1 to start the third Q after your other two led to points and allowed a terrible team to stay in the game and take the league is quite possibly the WORST context you could throw a pick in outside of a game-sealing pick with no time left.

 

Let me put this in context, what if Devin Singletary didn’t have a good day and the Bills lost. Would we be sitting here and saying, well Allen didn’t pass the ball that bad considering the context? No. 
 

let’s put it another way. If Josh wasn’t so dang effective running the ball, his game would have been HORRIFIC, especially in light of playing a piss poor team like the Falcons.

 

I would love to see what QB you believe had a worse performance than Allen passing but had a better passer rating . 

 

To the bolded: clearly.

 

I already mentioned the Late Nate Peterman vs. Chargers game. But, if I were willing to really get into the weeds (I'm not) I'm quite sure I could find plenty of QB performances above 17.0 that were worse than Allen's, given context. Which only means that we disagree on the efficacy of the passer rating as a single-game stat. It's really no big deal.