Here we go again.... Bills beat a decimated shell of a team in NO and now comes the test

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

How are the Bills a better team top to bottom?

If you go over to ItalianBills thread on position group to position group breakdown, the consensus appraisal seems to be very close talent wise.

 

 

The Bills should win why?  Because you think they have more talent?  Talent is as talent does - the Bills loss to the Jags showed that if nothing else.

 

No one can have a reasonable discussion with you if you dismiss any counterpoints anyone makes with "Quit making excuses The Bills should win".   You just make yourself sound like a Bot.

 

[teef]

17 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Are these the lyrics to an Eagles song?  It's beautiful.

i can't play an instrument, and i'd still be the best artist in the eagles.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

54 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Part of this is the type of routes Daboll prefers...lots of hitches and sideline routes that afford little to no YAC opportunities.  Unsure why we almost never run any type of slants that would allow Allen to hit them in stride close to the LOS and let them run.

 

That's a fair take, but I think it's also fair to point out that whether by design or personal wiring, Allen often seems to read plays deep to shallow and hesitate to take an easy throw to the sidelines or the flat.  At times, it's pretty clear that an immediate throw would result in good YAC while a hesitation allows coverage to close up.

 

It's also a point that except for Knox and to some extent Gabe Davis, the Bills receivers are not large bruisers who can gain YAC against smaller corners.

[Billsfan1972]

21 minutes ago, teef said:

why?  so you can post the same thing over and over?  we've been here before with you.  just post last year's box scores, and let us know again that the bills were picked to go to the sb.  people will give you countless reasons why this doesn't mean anything, yet you'll blow it off, and repeat what you've already said.  we get it.

 

did you notice that the only time this thread would go off the rails a bit is when you were involved.  posters were having decent discussions until you chimed in...in your own thread.  don't blame poster's reactions on me.  look at how you handle posting, and deal with yourself.  

So last year's box scores and showing that when they weren't scared of BB, they crushed them, means nothing?  I stated it after last year's first game, that they played into BB's hands and thought they played scared and almost lost.  In NE they buried them?  

 

And yes the Bills are still the #2 betting choice for the SB.  But that mean nothing.....  Let's hear again Any Given Sunday or another cliche.....

 

Let me guess in school you were the rat in the corner trying to pick on others and having your jock pals defend you, because you can't obviously articulate an opinion????

[muppy]

2 hours ago, colin said:

with tre out the d will have some challenges, but star and 49 being in means we have who we need to be fast and physical up front.

 

on O we need to set the tone, and a healthy top 5 guys on the field OL is the key to that.  brown brings so much juice it makes the whole line better.  we need dabol to forget his own tendencies and mix it up and instead of the "hit the open man" O, we need to scheme ways to get bease and most of all diggs the ball.  if Diggs goes off NE is toast.

 

aaaaand of course we have to avoid the billsiest way to lose, which is our special teams getting kicks/punts blocked or just swimming in laundry all day.  as a matter of fact, the O and D need to have a good fear of the color yellow.

Solid top to bottom Concur. Yellow Flags BAD.....avoid Yellow.....tck. JUST DO IT BUFFALO. Its a terrible look and the fanbase is sick and tired of it. That goes double for you Dion. meh not just him....

 

/vent

 

m

[teef]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

So last year's box scores and showing that when they weren't scared of BB, they crushed them, means nothing?  I stated it after last year's first game, that they played into BB's hands and thought they played scared and almost lost.  In NE they buried them?  

 

And yes the Bills are still the #2 betting choice for the SB.  But that mean nothing.....  Let's hear again Any Given Sunday or another cliche.....

 

Let me guess in school you were the rat in the corner trying to pick on others and having your jock pals defend you, because you can't obviously articulate an opinion????

correct.  it means absolutely nothing.

 

you just don't want to hear another opinion.  if you want to blame me for how people are treating, go ahead.  it won't help you, but go ahead.  let me guess...you were the kid in school that instigated arguments, and once they didn't go your way, you ran and complained that you were being bullied?  this isn't about me.  this is about how you have no ability to reason or see other people's points.   figure yourself out, or continue to be treated this way.

[FireChans]

On 11/29/2021 at 9:35 AM, No Place To Hyde said:

You make some very valid and reasonable points. The things that you hope to see are justified. However in all reality there is only 1 thing I need to see. 

 

1. Bills outscore Patriots.

 

Just win. Last night Lamar tossed 4 INTs. Baltimore still won. Last week the Ravens were down Lamar and Hollywood. Baltimore still won. They have had approx 317 running backs tear an ACL this year. Still winning. It always looks ugly. But they find ways. That's all that matters. 

 

Buffalo can play ugly, mistake filled football. Turn the ball over several times. As long as they win. No extra points for pretty in this league.

I don't think we are a team that can win ugly this season.

[BuffaninSarasota]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So last year's box scores and showing that when they weren't scared of BB, they crushed them, means nothing?  I stated it after last year's first game, that they played into BB's hands and thought they played scared and almost lost.  In NE they buried them?  

 

And yes the Bills are still the #2 betting choice for the SB.  But that mean nothing.....  Let's hear again Any Given Sunday or another cliche.....

 

Let me guess in school you were the rat in the corner trying to pick on others and having your jock pals defend you, because you can't obviously articulate an opinion????

what's funny is that you are digging yourself a bigger hole & don't even realize it

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The formation tell is definitely something the Bills have been trying to address since the Jags game. Think they accept they were too predictable. Setting a tendency is not always a bad thing if it gives you a big moments counter punch but 75% is too high, for certain. Equally agree the point about the running backs. I have said this before that I am not sure the backs they have drafted really compliment the way they try and block and the way they want their offense to attack more generally. I don't think the backs suck or necessarily that the line totally sucks. But the line is the bigger problem of the two for me. This season it has been the critical flaw on this football team - and the injuries / covid / constant shuffling of positions has not helped. 

 

I think the RBs, the OL, and the blocking by receivers have worked together to create a mess.

Turner of Cover1 somewhat alludes to this in a recent piece he did called "Breida Szn?" 

 

 

He points out that while the Bills OL RB is not always strong and well-coordinated, there are yards to be had - but (he's singling out Moss, but true of Motor as well), our backs are too slow to read and react to what's going on with the OL.  I think Turner exculpates the OL a bit much in a couple of his examples where the lineman clearly allowed the defender to get off his block, but the overall point is sound - it's in part mental processing, and in part just lack of quickness in executing cuts, and the result is that more of our runs get stuffed or only gain 1-2 yds where a more decisive and faster back would be able to gain yards.

 

To me it's sort of a "perfect storm" - an OL that struggles to create displacement, making reads muddled; combined with young backs who struggle to decode reads that aren't clean and lack quickness/speed to get to the holes (and get to the edge) if they aren't decisive.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

To me it's sort of a "perfect storm" - an OL that struggles to create displacement, making reads muddled; combined with young backs who struggle to decode reads that aren't clean and lack quickness/speed to get to the holes (and get to the edge) if they aren't decisive.

 

It's exactly this. Was last year too. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So last year's box scores and showing that when they weren't scared of BB, they crushed them, means nothing? 

 

Correct.  Last year's box scores mean nothing.

 

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And yes the Bills are still the #2 betting choice for the SB.

 

Correct.  Betting choices mean that's how Joe Average is willing to risk his rent money on a bet, which has to do with perception and not reality.

 

15 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Let me guess in school you were the rat in the corner trying to pick on others and having your jock pals defend you, because you can't obviously articulate an opinion????

 

If you've run out of actual counterpoints and people are not accepting the points you offer, it's time to agree to disagree and move on.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It's exactly this. Was last year too. 

 

The thing is, we've been doing the same thing with the same players and expecting different results.

 

When we signed Breida, I think we were all "OK, Change of Pace back that will give us a wider run play vocabulary"....then we see him inactive week after week.

When we ran back basically the same OL except for drafting a couple of talented but raw OLmen, I was like "OK, they must have decided the run scheme was at fault so we're going to try to address this schematically (oh, and maybe Forrest Lamp will overcome his injuries with our S&C staff and be an upgrade)"

 

Then Lamp is IR'd/released and we make no changes

Then we seem to be running the same plays with the same run/pass imbalance from shotgun and under center.

 

It makes me want to thump my head against the wall

 

The best explanation I've come up with is that Daboll honestly doesn't believe we need a run game.  He may pay lip service when forced, but he really believes that there is no offensive downside to coming out of the tunnel with a game plan to sling the ball 50 times and run 5, when the opponent knows that's what you're going to do and has schemed up exotic pressures to take advantage of that tendency.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, teef said:

i can't play an instrument, and i'd still be the best artist in the eagles.

I bet you wouldn’t say that to Don Henley’s face!

[GunnerBill]

47 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The thing is, we've been doing the same thing with the same players and expecting different results.

 

When we signed Breida, I think we were all "OK, Change of Pace back that will give us a wider run play vocabulary"....then we see him inactive week after week.

When we ran back basically the same OL except for drafting a couple of talented but raw OLmen, I was like "OK, they must have decided the run scheme was at fault so we're going to try to address this schematically (oh, and maybe Forrest Lamp will overcome his injuries with our S&C staff and be an upgrade)"

 

Then Lamp is IR'd/released and we make no changes

Then we seem to be running the same plays with the same run/pass imbalance from shotgun and under center.

 

It makes me want to thump my head against the wall

 

The best explanation I've come up with is that Daboll honestly doesn't believe we need a run game.  He may pay lip service when forced, but he really believes that there is no offensive downside to coming out of the tunnel with a game plan to sling the ball 50 times and run 5, when the opponent knows that's what you're going to do and has schemed up exotic pressures to take advantage of that tendency.

 

 

 

See I am with you largely but I think I come to the view that Beane and McDermott took the view that what they have is good enough and that their little money was better spent on a receiver that, largely, keeps Gabe Davis off the field. My apportionment of blame starts there before it comes back to gameplan. I think Daboll has showed he is willing to run in it games where the running is having some effect. He does, I agree, abandon it quickly when it stalls. To an extent I understand that. I want the game in Josh Allen's hands not in Zack Moss's. 

[BuffaninSarasota]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Correct.  Last year's box scores mean nothing.

 

 

Correct.  Betting choices mean that's how Joe Average is willing to risk his rent money on a bet, which has to do with perception and not reality.

 

 

If you've run out of actual counterpoints and people are not accepting the points you offer, it's time to agree to disagree and move on.

FTW

[Jrb1979]

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-odds-picks-predictions-experts-bet-patriots-cover-spread-bills-week-13-2021

 

If you want a good opinion about the game this week read what bettors at Action Network are saying. 

 

From the article,

While most people will see this as a step up in class for the Patriots, the Bills are just 3-4 when facing teams other than the Dolphins, Jets and Texans. The Bills’ last win came against Trevor Siemian, who never really gave the Saints a chance, going 17-of-29 for just 163 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

[John from Riverside]

Hmmmmm

 

The pats just beat a shell of a team and now comes THEIR real test

[Billsfan1972]

45 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-odds-picks-predictions-experts-bet-patriots-cover-spread-bills-week-13-2021

 

If you want a good opinion about the game this week read what bettors at Action Network are saying. 

 

From the article,

While most people will see this as a step up in class for the Patriots, the Bills are just 3-4 when facing teams other than the Dolphins, Jets and Texans. The Bills’ last win came against Trevor Siemian, who never really gave the Saints a chance, going 17-of-29 for just 163 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Yep the Bills should be underdogs.  How the mighty have fallen......😜

[Patrick Duffy]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Yep the Bills should be underdogs.  How the mighty have fallen......😜

Actually Bills probably would be underdogs if game was in N.E.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 11/29/2021 at 9:40 AM, Billsfan1972 said:

Does anyone remember last year......  

 

Played scared game 1 vs. NE & almost lost (great weather)

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401220115

 

Game 2 - Played 2020 Bills football

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401220130

 

Forget the run (sarcasm) and punch them in the nose.

 

 

It was not great weather.  You state that but the links you show don't demonstrate.

 

IMO the shoulder injury was probably the more relevant

 

The point is, the data show a different game plan, but it's your (probably faulty) inference as to the reason for the game plan.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I am with you largely but I think I come to the view that Beane and McDermott took the view that what they have is good enough and that their little money was better spent on a receiver that, largely, keeps Gabe Davis off the field. My apportionment of blame starts there before it comes back to gameplan. I think Daboll has showed he is willing to run in it games where the running is having some effect. He does, I agree, abandon it quickly when it stalls. To an extent I understand that. I want the game in Josh Allen's hands not in Zack Moss's. 

 

I don't think we're saying anything that different when you look under the hood.

 

"Daboll has shown he is willing to run it in games where the running is having some effect" is only a sidestep away from "Daboll honestly doesn't believe we need a run game.  He may pay lip service when forced, but he really believes that there is no offensive downside to coming out of the tunnel with a game plan to sling the ball 50 times and run 5, when the opponent knows that's what you're going to do and has schemed up exotic pressures to take advantage of that tendency."

 

Daboll has repeatedly said that he game plans week to week to take advantage of an opponent.  Everything we see suggests that part of that game plan is to look at (say) the Colts or the Ravens in the playoffs last year, decide that we won't be able to run effectively, and work on a game plan that doesn't involve the run.  Or look at the Jags, decide that we can exploit their secondary, and ditto.  Now sure, he can and will design game plans that are very run heavy as with last year against NE or against San Diego.  But that's different from saying "we have to at least show a credible threat to run, Every Single Game".

 

The difference may be that I buy into Greg Cosell's point (and Tony Dungy's etc etc) that even if you aren't running very effectively, the threat of running keeps the defense in need to defend the run and keeps them from going nutsoid with the pressure looks that overload one side of the line and have no one home on the other (what Pittsburgh and the Jags and to a lesser extent to Colts seem to have done). 

 

I also buy into Steve Tasker's point that if you create a pass-heavy game plan, the runs just don't get practiced as much, so the timing and execution on run plays will suffer.

 

Now sure, what he perceives as likely to be effective DOES depend upon the player personnel we've got, and the "buck" for that stops with McBeane.  But I don't believe for a minute that Daboll doesn't have strong input into the team's prioritization.  I don't think Beane went off to sign Sanders without input from Daboll.  Therefore if the big bucks in FA got spent on Sanders, it's because Daboll said his #1 priority was another receiver to pair with Beasley who could also run deep routes and get open when Diggs was doubled.  If Daboll said his #1 priority was improving the IOL, do you really think McDermott and Beane would have ignored that and run out to sign Sanders?

 

I don't.  I think Daboll signed off on the idea that the IOL was "good enough", that Ford would likely develop given an injury-free off season, and that some combination of Feliciano, Boettger, Lamp and Douglas would be servicable.

[djp14150]

On 11/29/2021 at 9:27 AM, Billsfan1972 said:

I have 100% confidence in the Bills talent and skill positions, but again that nagging feeling whether NO was at all an indicator of where the Bills are.  

 

I said the same after the Dolphins & Jets games.

 

They should beat the Pats and by 10 imo, but I would take very little from the NO game that they still need to clean up things and particularly on defense be aggressive vs. NE.

 

So some things I want to see.

 

1. Pressure on Jones
2. Don't play a loose secondary
3. Don't allow underneath as Jones will take easy completions and yac
4. Allen takes what is given 
5. Careful not to force the ball as NE seems to deflect a lot and are opportunistic
6. Get outside the pocket 

 

Most of all be aggressive like they were game #2 last year vs. NE.  Don't give Belichek too much respect, which they did the first game in 2020 and almost lost it.  Take a look at the two box scores from last year.  Seems pretty obvious what the Bills need to do.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401220115

 

vs.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401220130

 

N.e got quite a few shell team too….

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

On 11/29/2021 at 3:21 PM, Mr. WEO said:

 

Jones has been a dud.  Only 6 games played and hasn't cracked 350 yards.

 

Without Henry, Titans had 2 guys combine for 240 yards rushing. 

 

Their D blows.

 

Some injuries on D as well.  Obviously on O they're missing henry, julio, brown so... a lot.  They're also missing bud dupree, david long, rashaan evans, caleb farley on defense vs. the team that played buffalo.  Landry and autry gave us problems, but dupree on the other side requires some additional thought.  They were missing both ILB's on defense and it seems like NE made their money in that area of the field.  Farley was their 1st round pick and starting CB.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think we're saying anything that different when you look under the hood.

 

"Daboll has shown he is willing to run it in games where the running is having some effect" is only a sidestep away from "Daboll honestly doesn't believe we need a run game.  He may pay lip service when forced, but he really believes that there is no offensive downside to coming out of the tunnel with a game plan to sling the ball 50 times and run 5, when the opponent knows that's what you're going to do and has schemed up exotic pressures to take advantage of that tendency."

 

Daboll has repeatedly said that he game plans week to week to take advantage of an opponent.  Everything we see suggests that part of that game plan is to look at (say) the Colts or the Ravens in the playoffs last year, decide that we won't be able to run effectively, and work on a game plan that doesn't involve the run.  Or look at the Jags, decide that we can exploit their secondary, and ditto.  Now sure, he can and will design game plans that are very run heavy as with last year against NE or against San Diego.  But that's different from saying "we have to at least show a credible threat to run, Every Single Game".

 

The difference may be that I buy into Greg Cosell's point (and Tony Dungy's etc etc) that even if you aren't running very effectively, the threat of running keeps the defense in need to defend the run and keeps them from going nutsoid with the pressure looks that overload one side of the line and have no one home on the other (what Pittsburgh and the Jags and to a lesser extent to Colts seem to have done). 

 

I also buy into Steve Tasker's point that if you create a pass-heavy game plan, the runs just don't get practiced as much, so the timing and execution on run plays will suffer.

 

Now sure, what he perceives as likely to be effective DOES depend upon the player personnel we've got, and the "buck" for that stops with McBeane.  But I don't believe for a minute that Daboll doesn't have strong input into the team's prioritization.  I don't think Beane went off to sign Sanders without input from Daboll.  Therefore if the big bucks in FA got spent on Sanders, it's because Daboll said his #1 priority was another receiver to pair with Beasley who could also run deep routes and get open when Diggs was doubled.  If Daboll said his #1 priority was improving the IOL, do you really think McDermott and Beane would have ignored that and run out to sign Sanders?

 

I don't.  I think Daboll signed off on the idea that the IOL was "good enough", that Ford would likely develop given an injury-free off season, and that some combination of Feliciano, Boettger, Lamp and Douglas would be servicable.

 

Sure Daboll likely agreed on them going for Sanders. But the IOL is on Brandon Beane and ultimately Sean McDermott IMO. Even if Daboll might have thought the IOL is good enough that isn't, ever, an OC call. They will take input but that is on the personnel people to decide. That is Beane with ultimate sign off from Sean. 

[Mr. WEO]

7 hours ago, dneveu said:

 

Some injuries on D as well.  Obviously on O they're missing henry, julio, brown so... a lot.  They're also missing bud dupree, david long, rashaan evans, caleb farley on defense vs. the team that played buffalo.  Landry and autry gave us problems, but dupree on the other side requires some additional thought.  They were missing both ILB's on defense and it seems like NE made their money in that area of the field.  Farley was their 1st round pick and starting CB.

 

My points that without Henry, they still ran wild.  And that Julio hasn't paid off for them this season. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

My points that without Henry, they still ran wild.  And that Julio hasn't paid off for them this season. 

 

Yeah - i questioned the julio addition when they did it.  I think the idea was to replace corey davis - limit the route tree and have that deep threat over the top, and someone who can make contested catches.  Tannehill throws a good deep ball when its there, but Julio's lack of health has harmed them and now without AJ brown they're missing their main threat in the passing game.  

 

I'm not sure Julio is straight up washed though either.  I also don't really know how to fix a player whos hamstring has been screwed up since the beginning of 2020.  Prior to this consistent hamstring issue his injury history was mostly stuff he could play through, and the broken foot that took him out of the 2013 season.