Intriguing article: The Best Interior Run Defenders Probably Won’t Make Your Defense Better (538)

[Hapless Bills Fan]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-interior-run-defenders-probably-wont-make-your-defense-better/

Josh Hermsmeyer

 

Nate Silver, who founded 538, is probably an analytics geek's analytics geek.

 

Discuss.

 

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The Best Interior Run Defenders Probably Won’t Make Your Defense Better. 

In fact, they might make it worse.

 

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......Clearly, teams believe stopping the run is important, or they wouldn’t spend premium picks to acquire players adept at that skill......Given this belief, we were curious which teams were best at stopping the opposing ball carrier, and how much that actually matters. Specifically, we wanted to measure if a good interior run defense contributes to winning football games. Does interior run defense impact the number of points that a team allows? Does a stout interior line encourage the other team to pass more — and, by extension, gain more yards?

 

They created a new metric called "Run Stop Wins over Expected"

 

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We call our new metric “run stop wins over expected” (RSWOE). According to it, the New York Jets had the best interior run defense in the NFL in 2020 — and it wasn’t even close. Led by Williams’s 36.9 RSWOE, which is the highest of any interior lineman in a season since 2017 (when player-tracking began), the Jets lapped the field, adding over twice as many run wins as the second-place Los Angeles Rams.

 

OK, let's do a little "basic numbers" benchmarking.  The Jets had a good run D by Y/A - 6th best at 4.0 YPA.

4.0 YPA moves the chains.

 

But they were 24th in rushing attempts against them - 445

They were also tied (22-26) in passing Y/A against them and 28th in total passing yards against them, and passing attempts.

 

That kind of suggests to me that maybe they were pretty good at run D because teams were just passing all over them.

 

But I know others here have talked about the waning importance of run-stuffing defensive linemen, so maybe I'm simplistic.

 

[Simon]

You can't necessarily win a game with them.

But you can lose one without them.

[Shaw66]

Well, who knows how statistically solid this is, but it's consistent with what I've been saying about the Bills' seeming lack of emphasis on stopping the run, and with what I've been saying about Edmunds in particular.  The Bills seem to be designed to pass and stop the pass.  Edmunds isn't shooting gaps and making tackles for loss.   He isn't good at that, it's true, but I don't think that's the point.  I think the point is that McDermott and Frazier aren't asking him to do that.   They're asking him to be a pass defender.   I wouldn't be surprised to discover that he's the best pass defending middle linebacker in the league, not because he has a lot of passes defended, but because he occupies so much space that QBs don't throw into the short middle.  

[ColoradoBills]

I see it as a simple math equation.

As the points scored per game has increased over the years the importance of the running game has waned.

Ergo, the importance of run defense has waned.

 

Fans on game day go nuts when a team has a 12 yard run up the middle.  A quick slant pass play can give you the same result.

It's the combined points against both running and passing that matters.  IMO.

[Orlando Tim]

The issue is that football, especially defenses, is not based around one defender. Rams had Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald and we put up 28 points on them in just over 30 minutes of football. It is better to have 3 levels of great players than half elite and half average. The definite statement is that edge rushers are more important than run stuffers today.

[LeGOATski]

I think the big 330lb, 1-tech, run-stopping specialist is certainly not a high-demand position.

 

Run-stopping hasn't become less important, it's just that the evolution of the game has changed how teams stop the run.

 

If you're run-stopping ability makes a team pass more, that's good. It means you're making them one-dimensional. If you can't stop the pass at all, then that's a whole 'nother problem.

 

I think the Bills would love to force teams to pass and then get after it. They can do that with a high powered offense that puts the opponent in a hole. If they can do it by stopping the run on any given Sunday, then that's icing on the cake.

[MJS]

This is what I've been talking about. Everytime the Chiefs run the ball on us, that is keeping the ball out of the hands of Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill. It severely limits their potential for an explosive play.

 

So yeah, let teams run the ball on us and force them to execute 15 play drives to score on us. Chances are they will not always be able to do that. Sometimes, yes, but not all the time.

 

Build the defense to stop the pass and get after the QB.

[Utah John]

These statistical analyses are supposed to isolate the factor that's being studied.  I didn't read the article about how that study was conducted, but I really don't see how you can factor out all the other parts of a team's performance.  Does the offense score a lot of points, quickly, and make it less likely that the other team will attempt to run the ball?  Does the defensive scheme call for a lot of blitzes and stunts to try to get after the QB, leaving the defense more vulnerable to gashing by runs?  There are just too many variables.

 

The old expression, the best defense is a good offense, does apply.  The Bills have a lethal offense and can easily be envisioned to put up 14 or 21 points in most first quarters.  Once the opponent falls behind by 14 points or more, can it afford to stay patient and keep trying to run?  Most don't.  (Tennessee might be the exception, since Henry is so good.)  I think the best way to stop the opponent's rushing attack is to have a very strong offense of your own, to get the other guys to move away from rushing on their own.

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, MJS said:

This is what I've been talking about. Everytime the Chiefs run the ball on us, that is keeping the ball out of the hands of Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill. It severely limits their potential for an explosive play.

 

So yeah, let teams run the ball on us and force them to execute 15 play drives to score on us. Chances are they will not always be able to do that. Sometimes, yes, but not all the time.

 

Build the defense to stop the pass and get after the QB.

 

The game plan McDermott and Frazier used first time round against the Chiefs last year was a good plan. I get it that fans hate it. A lot of them grew up when football was about toughness first and toughness last and having yards piled up against you on the ground was an affront to your manhood. But that isn't the NFL anymore. It so nearly worked too. An inch away from a forced fumble that would have likely won us the game and then a blown coverage on a broken play on a 3rd down scramble drill. The NFL used to be a run and stop the run league. It is now a pass and stop the pass league.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

31 minutes ago, MJS said:

This is what I've been talking about. Everytime the Chiefs run the ball on us, that is keeping the ball out of the hands of Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill. It severely limits their potential for an explosive play.

 

So yeah, let teams run the ball on us and force them to execute 15 play drives to score on us. Chances are they will not always be able to do that. Sometimes, yes, but not all the time.

 

Build the defense to stop the pass and get after the QB.

 

Fair enough.  But the counter argument is that when a team sets out to stifle the pass - as the Bills did in their first meeting with the Chiefs and were "successful" with to the tune of "only" 225 yds ....if that team still makes 245 rushing yards, as the Chiefs did, it has two effects:

 

1) the opponent still sustained several long drives culminating in a TD, so the pressure is on our offense to score points

2) the opponent may dominate TOP unless the Bills also manage to sustain long scoring drives, meaning they're keeping our potent O off the field

 

In running the ball for those 245 yds we couldn't stop, the Chiefs dominated TOP 37:45 to 22:15.  The end result is we had to score more points in less time.  It didn't work out too well for us.

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The game plan McDermott and Frazier used first time round against the Chiefs last year was a good plan. I get it that fans hate it. A lot of them grew up when football was about toughness first and toughness last and having yards piled up against you on the ground was an affront to your manhood. But that isn't the NFL anymore. It so nearly worked too. An inch away from a forced fumble that would have likely won us the game and then a blown coverage on a broken play on a 3rd down scramble drill. The NFL used to be a run and stop the run league. It is now a pass and stop the pass league.

 

I don't know that I agree that it was a good plan.  If our offense had been patient in return, able and willing to sustain long drives and able to score a TD instead of a FG, it might have worked better, but when our O was having trouble finding a rhythm we had nothin'

[BarleyNY]

This isn’t saying that it’s okay to be terrible at run defense.  It makes a lot of sense if you think about it like this: it’s better to be average at run defense and great at rushing the passer rather than the other way around. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

I don't know that I agree that it was a good plan.  If our offense had been patient in return, able and willing to sustain long drives and able to score a TD instead of a FG, it might have worked better, but when our O was having trouble finding a rhythm we had nothin'

 

I agree it didn't exactly look like complimentary football that night but I put the offense's struggles against KC last year in both games down to physicality both on the line and the boundary.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

This isn’t saying that it’s okay to be terrible at run defense.  It makes a lot of sense if you think about it like this: it’s better to be average at run defense and great at rushing the passer rather than the other way around. 

 

Now this, I can 100% go with

[JerseyBills]

That's why you gotta double Star which in turn opens up favorable matchups for the rest of DL

Edited August 29, 2021 by JerseyBills

[Bob in NoCal]

That great play by Klein finally made me a believer…. in Star. 

[Orlando Tim]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The game plan McDermott and Frazier used first time round against the Chiefs last year was a good plan. I get it that fans hate it. A lot of them grew up when football was about toughness first and toughness last and having yards piled up against you on the ground was an affront to your manhood. But that isn't the NFL anymore. It so nearly worked too. An inch away from a forced fumble that would have likely won us the game and then a blown coverage on a broken play on a 3rd down scramble drill. The NFL used to be a run and stop the run league. It is now a pass and stop the pass league.

That game against KC was not that our defense was bad against the run, just that it we chose to be better against the pass. Sometimes you have to pick your poison and we did it properly, despite Josh having a poor game by his 2020 standard we were one play from winning. Your point is why this study is so flawed.

[billybrew1]

Can't wait to see our four man front featuring four defensive ends.....

 

Jerry - Groot - Basham - AJ.......

 

Far Out!

 

Maybe Put in a twist and safety blitz. Get there in a hurry....

 

That would give us five rushers that can move side to side....that can adjust to a moving QB some....

Say, a smaller, moving QB dressed in red.....

When you think about it, most DTs don't even scare Mahomes as he is too quick (but I saw a SF tackle hit him in the Super Bowl. Most can't get near him. Maybe Groot can latch onto him with those long arms, maybe Basham forces him to duck and roll?

[Max Fischer]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, who knows how statistically solid this is, but it's consistent with what I've been saying about the Bills' seeming lack of emphasis on stopping the run, and with what I've been saying about Edmunds in particular.  The Bills seem to be designed to pass and stop the pass.  Edmunds isn't shooting gaps and making tackles for loss.   He isn't good at that, it's true, but I don't think that's the point.  I think the point is that McDermott and Frazier aren't asking him to do that.   They're asking him to be a pass defender.   I wouldn't be surprised to discover that he's the best pass defending middle linebacker in the league, not because he has a lot of passes defended, but because he occupies so much space that QBs don't throw into the short middle.  

I’m not aware of evidence that proves Edmunds “isn’t good” shooting the gap, but I’m quite certain he isn’t asked to play that role. If anything that’s what Milano, Klien and even Poyer do much more often. 
 

As you note, Edmunds is a superior space eater in pass coverage, which is his job. Fans say Edmunds doesn’t have “good instincts” but he doesn’t play down hill, he plays a step back and then sideline to side line - not shooting gaps. 
 

Saturday’s goal line plays illustrated this well. 

[Max Fischer]

4 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I think the big 330lb, 1-tech, run-stopping specialist is certainly not a high-demand position.

 

Run-stopping hasn't become less important, it's just that the evolution of the game has changed how teams stop the run.

 

If you're run-stopping ability makes a team pass more, that's good. It means you're making them one-dimensional. If you can't stop the pass at all, then that's a whole 'nother problem.

 

I think the Bills would love to force teams to pass and then get after it. They can do that with a high powered offense that puts the opponent in a hole. If they can do it by stopping the run on any given Sunday, then that's icing on the cake.

Also, build a good lead and opponents will abandon the run game. 

[Shaw66]

43 minutes ago, Max Fischer said:

I’m not aware of evidence that proves Edmunds “isn’t good” shooting the gap, but I’m quite certain he isn’t asked to play that role. If anything that’s what Milano, Klien and even Poyer do much more often. 
 

As you note, Edmunds is a superior space eater in pass coverage, which is his job. Fans say Edmunds doesn’t have “good instincts” but he doesn’t play down hill, he plays a step back and then sideline to side line - not shooting gaps. 
 

Saturday’s goal line plays illustrated this well. 

Finally, an ally! Nicely said. Thanks