Intriguing article: The Best Interior Run Defenders Probably Won’t Make Your Defense Better (538)

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Fans would have loved the game plan if our offense had gotten anything done in either matchup.  Daboll had no answers in either contest.

 

We couldn't protect. That was the biggest issue in both games. Whatever Spags did Bobby Johnson and Daboll couldn't figure it out.

[MJS]

2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

This is a very good argument.

But there's a greedy side  to me that says we should be able to stop anything the offense tries to do.  We should render them helpless and break their spirits.  

Yeah. In a perfect world you would be able to stop both, and I think it is possible to do that to a certain extent. But there are going to be situations where you play the pass and risk giving up runs, and vice versa.

 

In the red zone you have the luxury of devoting more manpower to stopping the run because there is much less ground to cover for the pass.

53 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

We couldn't protect. That was the biggest issue in both games. Whatever Spags did Bobby Johnson and Daboll couldn't figure it out.

Their secondary was also allowed to play very physical against our receivers, something that the officials cracked down on in the Superbowl against Tampa Bay.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think it's that simple.  We didn't just give up points with our plan, we gave up TOP.  If your offense doesn't have the ball, it can't score. 

 

Especially if the offense is having trouble figuring out what it can do successfully, it needs to get the ball back so it can figure it out.

 

Chris Simms Unbuttoned had a good piece on it just after the game.

 

I'm not saying the offense had a good game, but just pointing at them (all on the offense) is missing my point.

 

 

I think it's precisely that simple.

 

The only real problem with letting the the other team get a lot of TOP is that you get fewer possessions. Other than that, it's fine.

 

The Kelly-Thurman Bills used to be killed week after week in TOP. But the offense was good and so even if they got fewer possessions, they scored enough points to make it work. To work very well indeed.

 

I'm getting your point. I'm disagreeing strongly. The Bills offense had nine possessions and punted four times and was intercepted once. That's awful, and it is basically the reason KC won.

[JerseyBills]

17 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

Can't wait to see our four man front featuring four defensive ends.....

 

Jerry - Groot - Basham - AJ.......

 

Far Out!

 

Maybe Put in a twist and safety blitz. Get there in a hurry....

 

That would give us five rushers that can move side to side....that can adjust to a moving QB some....

Say, a smaller, moving QB dressed in red.....

When you think about it, most DTs don't even scare Mahomes as he is too quick (but I saw a SF tackle hit him in the Super Bowl. Most can't get near him. Maybe Groot can latch onto him with those long arms, maybe Basham forces him to duck and roll?

McD and Frazier can get very creative on the DL.   Groot, Boogie,AJ and Efe can all play inside too. Will be very interesting and fun to see

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thurm -

 

Thanks for doing the research, but what they describe is not what I see.  And I think what you say - too tall and rangy, is correct and part of the problem.  

 

I don't see burst.   I see good open field speed, but not great acceleration.   I don't see him beating blockers to the gap, and I don't see him slipping blocks.   He doesn't beat runners into the gap, and he doesn't burst through the line and appear in the QB's face on blitzes.   Maybe you're correct - he isn't bad at that stuff, but I think in a different system, one that required him to be that kind of tackle-for-loss middle linebacker, he'd be average at best.  He isn't a mauler, as you say.   

 

That's why so many people around here are down on him.  They expected and they want Keuchly or someone.  They wanted London Fletcher playing behind a nasty 1-tech or 0-tech guy, diving into holes and stuffing runs at the line of scrimmage.   It's just so clear now that that is not what McDermott wants.  

 

People should look at the video of the fourth-and-1 stop at the goal line.   That's vintage Edmunds.   Klein is slashing into the gap, slipping a block, moving laterally behind the line of scrimmage to make the stop.  Edmunds is up right, behind the line, just playing off his blocker and reading.  Now, I know people will look at that and say it's terrible, Edmunds isn't attacking, he isn't shedding the blocker, there's instinctual play on display.  Well, fine, that's all true.  But to those people think that Frazier and McDermott don't look at the film?  Do they think they don't see that?   So, why don't they do something about it?  After three seasons, it's clear - they don't do something about it because Edmunds is doing exactly what he's been coached to do.  I mean, he isn't even trying to plug a gap.   If diving into some gap was his job on that play, Edmunds would be mired so far down the bench, he'd be outside 716.  

 

So, whether you're correct about his ability to play the slashing, run-stuffing linebacker or I am, it's pretty much beside the point.  He isn't asked to be that guy.  Just like Star isn't asked to be a sackmeister and Knox isn't asked to be Lee Smith.  

 

 

You don't see burst? I don't know what to say. I see burst. Again and again and again. The evaluators saw burst. Burst just does not appear to be the problem.

 

When it comes down to change of direction I'd agree that at that point he does sometimes seem a bit awkwardish, and his height does appear to be an issue on that kind of play, but in terms of immediate burst, he's really good. Yeah, good speed as well, we see that the same, but that's not all it is, he's also quick. As I say, those were the first three evaluations I saw, and after I copied those three I looked at four or five others. They all said he had burst and was athletic as hell. Every one.

 

As for the goal line stand play, yeah, Klein slashes into a gap, and Edmunds doesn't. But the fact is, there was a gap just in front of Klein for him to run into, and in front of Edmunds was a mosh pit that looked like it might move over to his right allowing a gap to open up just in front of Edmunds. So yeah, he waited, but the instant that gap appeared, he filled it. If he'd done anything else, it would have been a touchdown.

 

I agree that the people who don't like him seem to want a slobber-knocker, and I think you're right that that's not what McDermott needs, nor what Edmunds is. 

 

Here's Baldinger talking going on about what a savage he is:

 

 

 

Here's Mirsky and Troia breaking down a bunch of plays. It's good stuff, and you see him filling a lot of holes, beating blockers to the point of attack, and so on. It's good stuff, certainly not all positive. It's a couple of months old, well before camp started, but the breakdowns are good.

 

 

 

 

He fills a lot of area in the middle in the pass game. But he's a good run defender too.

Edited August 30, 2021 by Thurman#1

[BuffBillsForLife]

At the risk of letting my inner "Grug hit rock" out, I think it's crazy that people are still trying to use analytics on football.  There are too many variables, too many moving parts, and too many intangibles for it it to ever work out like it does in baseball.  Don't forget that draftniks and analytics types all said that Allen would be a monumental bust that would shame the Bills franchise for all time.  Now he's walking over the corpse of mathematics to claim that future MVP and super bowl ring.

 

There have only ever been two things that matter in football: is the guy fast and does he pass the eye test.  So to get back on topic, give me a monster DT who excels in their made up statistic and plug him in on the Bills D-line and watch my average blood pressure while watching the Bills drop dramatically.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You don't see burst? I don't know what to say. I see burst. Again and again and again. The evaluators saw burst. Burst just does not appear to be the problem.

 

When it comes down to change of direction I'd agree that at that point he does sometimes seem a bit awkwardish, and his height does appear to be an issue on that kind of play, but in terms of immediate burst, he's really good. Yeah, good speed as well, we see that the same, but that's not all it is, he's also quick. As I say, those were the first three evaluations I saw, and after I copied those three I looked at four or five others. They all said he had burst and was athletic as hell. Every one.

 

As for the goal line stand play, yeah, Klein slashes into a gap, and Edmunds doesn't. But the fact is, there was a gap just in front of Klein for him to run into, and in front of Edmunds was a mosh pit that looked like it might move over to his right allowing a gap to open up just in front of Edmunds. So yeah, he waited, but the instant that gap appeared, he filled it. If he'd done anything else, it would have been a touchdown.

 

I agree that the people who don't like him seem to want a slobber-knocker, and I think you're right that that's not what McDermott needs, nor what Edmunds is. 

 

Here's Baldinger talking going on about what a savage he is:

 

 

 

Here's Mirsky and Troia breaking down a bunch of plays. It's good stuff, and you see him filling a lot of holes, beating blockers to the point of attack, and so on. It's good stuff, certainly not all positive. It's a couple of months old, well before camp started, but the breakdowns are good.

 

 

 

 

He fills a lot of area in the middle in the pass game. But he's a good run defender too.

Thanks.  Can't watch that stuff now, but I'll look at it when I can.  I'm interested in it. 

 

You missed my point about the goal line play.   The point is that Edmunds' assignment on that play, like most plays, is NOT to slash.   Klein made the play and Edmunds didn't precisely because the Bills don't ask Edmunds to do that - that's what Klein was in there for.  It isn't Edmunds assignment, which is completely beside the point about whether he CAN do it.   You and I may disagree about whether he can, but we don't disagree about how he's used.  

 

I'm not one of those who complains about Edmunds.   I'm convinced that his value is in something that I can't see, which is how he disrupts the passing game.   There was a thread several weeks that had quotes from GMs, scouts, and coaches, and someone said he's just a real problem in the passing game, because he covers more ground than the average MLB, he is taller than the average MLB, and he has longer arms than the average MLB.   The combined result is that he takes away a much larger part of the middle of the field than pretty much all MLBs.   That doesn't show up in any stats that the average fan looks at, but it's obvious how it helps the four DBs.  It means the DBs have less of the field to cover, which allows them to stay closer to receivers and close on them more easily.  

 

And I think his assignment in the run game is not to get tackles for loss, but to help keep running plays at 3-7 yards when the ball carrier breaks through the front four.   The Bills won't commit Edmunds or Milano to filling gaps, because they want them dropping in the passing game.   So, their jobs are to limit the damage when the front four doesn't make the stop, not make a tackle for no gain.  

 

I think if you could interview Beane and McDermott and have them answer frankly, they would say they're getting exactly the value from Edmunds that they wanted.  They'd say that since then there hasn't been another player to come into the league who can play the pass the way Edmunds does.   And I'd guess they'd also say that he is going to continue to improve against both the pass and the run.

Edited August 30, 2021 by Shaw66

[billsfan89]

The best value is to get a player that stuffs the run and is a positive pass rusher. Their metric in saying that having a big time run stuffer will make your defense worse is just flawed. Run stuffers help a defense but one dimensional run stuffers are more of a niche in the modern NFL.