Alphas first stab at the 53 as we approach first preseason game

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Where that gets tricky is on defense... because are you saying your 11 spots include the 3rd linebacker or the nickel corner? Then how do you backfill those spots? The Bills actually went with 6 linebackers and 5 corners last year but played nickel way more than base. 

Yep…you’ve got the gist of it. As I said all of the in-play positions are due to situational football. The NFL doesn’t really allow a team to keep players as ‘development’ guys on the 53 man roster. So it’s not surprising that your Special Teams are made up of backup RB, WR, LB, DB etc.  Your 5 extra players are coming from those roster slots. Where do you invest them?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Matakevich

SLB:  Klien - Adams

Upon another look, I think a question you’ll have to wrestle with in your scenario, if they don’t keep Taiwan Jones or DE Johnson, both whom have been praised as solid ST guys, are they really going to keep 11 DL, and only 6 LBs? 
 

You know how much they love their special teams

10 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yep…you’ve got the gist of it. As I said all of the in-play positions are due to situational football. The NFL doesn’t really allow a team to keep players as ‘development’ guys on the 53 man roster. So it’s not surprising that your Special Teams are made up of backup RB, WR, LB, DB etc.  Your 5 extra players are coming from those roster slots. Where do you invest them?

In previous years, I’d say they’d be hanging onto developmental guys. Players that they took a chance on, or who they drafted and need time to groom. 
 

Reality is now upon us, and it’s time to win. I think they’re going to opt to send the “not ready” type players packing and hang onto guys who they know can fill a specific role (special teams, 3rd down pass rush, extra WR). 
 

They are in win now mode, IMO, and that means packing the 53 with guys who can play. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

12 hours ago, Doc said:

Yeah, 1 fewer DL (they kept 10 going into last season) and 1 more TE. 

I think @Alphadawg7 has a great point about Gilliam (FB) as an emergency TE. 
 

What does a 3rd TE offer you on your active roster? If they don’t play special teams, I’d rather them try to sneak a guy like Sweeney onto the PS and then have the option to promote him as needed given the current CoVID rules for PS elevations. 

13 hours ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Just curious, with your prediction regarding the RB's and FB.....do you see them keeping Gilliam over a 4th RB that can play ST? I agree with you about Gilliam and the FB position. I just think they keep 4 RB's and I'm looking at your list to try and see who would be replaced for that 4th RB. And going by your list I think it could be Gilliam. 

 

Either way, will be a few tough decisions to be made for sure, which is a good thing.

Historically, they’ve carried 3 RBs and 1 FB, or 4 in total. 
 

Think back to Pat DiMarco and his ST contributions. I don’t see a way they carry, 4RBs AND a FB unless they really only have 2 TEs on the roster. 

[BillsShredder83]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't think there is any possibility they will risk either Rousseau or Boogie on the PS.  I cant imagine any scenario where we will risk a first or 2nd round pick on our PS given they are the future of our position and invested valuable draft assets into them.  And both have been drawing praise from coaches and players all offseason.  

Id be beyond peeved if they exposed one of these guys, theres 0% chance of that happening, and 100% chance those players would get poached

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Upon another look, I think a question you’ll have to wrestle with in your scenario, if they don’t keep Taiwan Jones or DE Johnson, both whom have been praised as solid ST guys, are they really going to keep 11 DL, and only 6 LBs? 
 

You know how much they love their special teams

 

In Alpha's scenario presumably Jake Kumerow becomes the starting gunner in place of Taiwan Jones. Who replaces Johnson's snaps is trickier but all 3 of his backup linebackers are good teams players. 

 

I just don't see 11 on the dline. I expect the extra spot either goes to Taiwan Jones or if they are happy with Kumerow as a gunner it goes to Sweeney as a 3rd tight end. 

[Patrick Duffy]

18 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Historically, they’ve carried 3 RBs and 1 FB, or 4 in total. 
 

Think back to Pat DiMarco and his ST contributions. I don’t see a way they carry, 4RBs AND a FB unless they really only have 2 TEs on the roster

Well if you count T. Jones it is 4 RB's right? Isn't he listed as RB?

[EmotionallyUnstable]

44 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Well if you count T. Jones it is 4 RB's right? Isn't he listed as RB?

Yup which is why I don’t see a scenario with Moss, Single, Breida, Jones AND Gilliam (5) unless they only carry two TEs as Gunner mentions above 

[Patrick Duffy]

4 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Yup which is why I don’t see a scenario with Moss, Single, Breida, Jones AND Gilliam (5) unless they only carry two TEs as Gunner mentions above 

Ok gotcha....see I on the other hand think they keep 4 RBs this time. Just hard to pin point who gets the short end of the stick if they do. I think one of the DL players will go, maybe Butler? 

[Craig Oi]

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is my first attempt at the final 53 and also who I think starts come week 1 based on camp reports ahead of our first preseason game.  Obviously some of these are certain locks, and others are fluid and preseason could change some of them:  

 

Preseason is going to be quite important I think this year to the final makeup on this roster at several key positions.  And not just for backup roles, quite a few starting roles up for grabs too as we all know.  I would say RB, TE, DE, CB2, and KR (although I think McKinzie is now a pretty strong favorite for KR/PR duties) are all spots where not only is depth chart uncertain, but the starting spot is certainly in play as well.  

 

My first stab at the final 53 (starters listed in bold first, followed by backups)

 

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox

WRS Diggs and Sanders - Davis, Kumerow

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle 

 

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Matakevich

SLB:  Klien - Adams

LCB:  Tre - Taron

RCB:  Levi - Dane, Lewis

SS:  Poyer - Neal

FS:  Hyde - Johnson, Hamlin

 

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

 

NOTES ON ABOVE:

As you can see I have AJE beating out Addison, Singletary staying atop the depth chart, Levi starting, and Hollister Beating out Knox.  

 

At CB, I think Dane is still in the mix, but I think Levi has got a sizable enough lead that its probable he holds down the starting job week 1.  

 

With AJE, I think they want to get some of that youth on the field and AJE has apparently been tearing up camp.  With Addison being older, rotating him in to keep him fresh makes a lot of sense even though Addison has been getting his own share of praise too and still could start come week 1.  AJE and Hughes is a nice balance of vet and youth, with a nice combo of vet and youth rotating through as well.  

 

At RB, I think all 3 of them have had good moments in camp, but Moss is dinged up again and coming off an injury.  Singletary has been looking good in camp, so I think he holds onto his starting spot to start the season with Brieda being more used as a change of pace back.  Honestly, I think our run game is going to be a lot like SF had when Brieda was there, any given week one of them can be the lead dog and have a big game.  I think we will have a good overall ground game, with no one guy dominating the season touches as they ride the hot hand or game plan each week.  

 

With Hollister and Knox, the guy I want to win the job is Knox just based on the matchup problems his physical ability can create.  But he didn't have a very consistent camp, and that opens up the door for Hollister, who was pretty solid in his opportunities in Seattle.  We won't know if Hollister is a true threat to beat out Knox until we get to see some in game action, but my pick right now is more based on Knox lack of momentum coming out of camp.  This is really a toss up for me right now on who will start week 1, either one of them could or even someone not even on the roster yet...see note below

 

• NOTE:  (Queue the eye rolls) Don't rule out a move before the end of preseason for another TE if Knox and Hollister struggle at all this preseason.  I don't think Beane will make a move until he see's them in some games to get a better feel if we even need to or not.  But Beane has proven he is not afraid to make a move at any point in a season if he thinks it makes our team better.  And if Knox and Hollister struggle at all this preseason, get ready for the daily dose of "Ertz" rumors again lol, although there are more potential options beyond just Ertz that could fit into Beane's target list.  

 

Speaking of trades, after the draft I have previously speculated, like many, that Addison (or maybe Hughes, but less likely) could be someone who gets traded if AJE, Obada, and the rookies keep impressing.  And while I won't rule it out, the more I think about it, the less likely I think it happens.  If I had to guess right now, I think we keep all 6 DE's and constantly rotate fresh legs to help wreak havoc in a year we are expected to challenge for a SB.  ESPECIALLY after how they saw the Bucs get to Mahomes and beat the Chiefs in the SB.  And right now, it appears we have 4 starting quality DE's and 2 high quality rookies for our future.  Thats a lot of pass rush fire power for us to have fresh to go after Mahomes and the Chiefs, the biggest foe in our path to a SB.

A really good and well thought out post. Roster spots are at a premium this year an a few of our "traditional" practices of roster make up will have to change. Hopefully a few tough cuts will be IR'ed. I think if Taiwan can reasonably be replaced as a gunner he is cut. I have heard that they have been trying Brieda and Kumerow  as gunners...  I see 4 DT's ( Oliver, Star, Harrison, & Zimmer) and 6 DE's.  Rousseau, Basham, AJE, are locks Obada is fast approaching that status. That leaves the 2 vets and Johnson...One has to go and I'd like to keep Johnson. I think we then roll with 5 LB's ( Edmunds, Milano, Klein, Matakevich, Adams)  ,6(7) CB's ( 'Tre, Wallace, Dane, Taron, Neal, Lewis/Wildgoose) and 4 safeties ( Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Hamlin). 2 QB's( Allen, Mitch)3 RB's ( Singletary, Moss, Brieda) ,1 FB (Gilliam), 3 TE's(Knox, Hollister, Sweeney), 6(7)WR's(Diggs, Saunders, Cole, McKenzie, Davis, Kumerow/Hodgins) & 9OL ( Dawkins, Ford, Mitch, Mongo, Williams, Brown, Bates, Ike, Doyle) and the 3 ST specialists brings us to 53 choosing between a 7th CB or WR for the last spot whichever player they think they can sneak onto the PS being cut.

[HOUSE]

UN-Vaccinated players could be the deciding factor here. 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I think @Alphadawg7 has a great point about Gilliam (FB) as an emergency TE. 
 

What does a 3rd TE offer you on your active roster? If they don’t play special teams, I’d rather them try to sneak a guy like Sweeney onto the PS and then have the option to promote him as needed given the current CoVID rules for PS elevations. 

 

This is actually a point.  Last year they kept Lee Smith on the roster as their 3rd TE (in addition to Gilliam as a FB/TE).  They could easily decide to keep an extra utility OLman instead.

 

 

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Historically, they’ve carried 3 RBs and 1 FB, or 4 in total. 

 

?

Last year, Singletary, Moss, Yates, Taiwan Jones.  That's 4.  Plus Gilliam, if you want to consider him a FB

 

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Think back to Pat DiMarco and his ST contributions. I don’t see a way they carry, 4RBs AND a FB unless they really only have 2 TEs on the roster. 

 

RB is a high injury position whose players take a lot of wear and tear.

I don't see them carrying less than they carried last season.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This is actually a point.  Last year they kept Lee Smith on the roster as their 3rd TE (in addition to Gilliam as a FB/TE).  They could easily decide to keep an extra utility OLman instead.

 

 

 

?

Last year, Singletary, Moss, Yates, Taiwan Jones.  That's 4.  Plus Gilliam, if you want to consider him a FB

 

 

RB is a high injury position whose players take a lot of wear and tear.

I don't see them carrying less than they carried last season.

Wasn’t he listed as a TE last year? 
 

maybe I’m splitting hairs 

[qwksilver]

3 hours ago, Rock'em Sock'em said:

$$$$ - increased cap, but being spread around to the same number of guys.

My angle of thinking was the beating these men take. More bodies would have been better. Your point makes sense as well.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Wasn’t he listed as a TE last year? 
 

maybe I’m splitting hairs 

 

He was, but the count of 3 TE last year (Knox Kroft Smith) doesn't include him.

That's why I think 2 TE is unlikely, but it is our thinnest position and it's quite possible no one is watching Sweeney too closely so they could PS him.

[SCBills]

Knox and Hollister are both athletic, young tight ends.  

 

Without a Lee Smith to activate as a blocking tight end, I see zero reason to carry 3 young tight ends on the 53, when we can likely keep Sweeney on the PS. 

[NickelCity]

It does feel like Butler is going to be the odd man out at DT.

 

DE is a total log jam. One of Addison or Johnson won't be on the 53, I think.

 

I see them keeping the 6 WR Alpha mentioned - going to 7 seems like a stretch. 

 

A RB trade wouldn't surprise me, as well. AW's preseason snaps are maybe what I'm looking forward to most. 

[Punching Bag]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

He was, but the count of 3 TE last year (Knox Kroft Smith) doesn't include him.

That's why I think 2 TE is unlikely, but it is our thinnest position and it's quite possible no one is watching Sweeney too closely so they could PS him.

 

Since Sweeney came off medical most teams will probably think he needs more time conditioning before he can take a role on 53.

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

 

Reality is now upon us, and it’s time to win. I think they’re going to opt to send the “not ready” type players packing and hang onto guys who they know can fill a specific role (special teams, 3rd down pass rush, extra WR). 
 

They are in win now mode, IMO, and that means packing the 53 with guys who can play. 

This is an interesting point.  McBeane have been very clear that they are in continuous improvement mode, and by implication they've been clear that they won't mortgage the future to win now.   This issue, who goes unprotected to practice squad, is where McBeane gets tested.  

 

I think it works like this:  If you've got a rookie you think has a good chance of emerging as a quality player, you want to hold on to him.  If he's a battle with a guy with a little more experience, the rookie is losing, do you put on the PS?   I think you ask one more question.  We know that the rookie isn't as good as the vet right now, and if we keep the rookie over the vet, the team will be weaker.  The final question is whether if you put the rookie on the 53, and if he's going to be a relative liability in Week 1, what will he be in Week 12?  Because if you think the rookie will close the experience gap in 10 weeks and will be the equal or even better player, then you go with the rookie. 

 

Other than that situation, I think "the time is now" has to control the roster decisions.   All good teams have the problem of losing good young talent.   It's part of success in the NFL.  So, you make the right roster decision for this year's team, and you let the chips fall where they may with the guys you'd like to stash on the practice squad.   It has to be that way.  Are you going to tell a Jerry Hughes "this kid is really important to the future, so we're putting him on the roster instead of the veteran, who makes us better this year, sure, but who won't be here in a year or two."   A veteran like Hughes would be rightly upset at that.   He, and everyone else on the team, is playing to win now. 

 

One slight edge I think the Bills have is that their culture is so attractive to some players that they may be willing to take a PS spot rather than go to another team.  Obviously, not everyone is going to make that choice - these guys have been focused for 8 or 10 years to make it to the NFL, not to make a practice squad.  But one or two or three guys may be told, "look, you need more experience, but you look like you're going to play for us.  If we get an injury, for sure you're getting called up.  If you show well in practice and continue to improve, you may get called up.   And we're planning on going places - you'd like to be part of it."  

 

So, yes, go with the best 53, but fudge it a bit with guys who seem to have a real future. 

[CaptnCoke11]

5 DTs won’t happen.  

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

The reason I have us keeping just 2 TE's right now, is because I think Gilliam is essentially a 3rd TE even though he would be kept as a "FB".  So I think Gilliam most likely remains on this roster.  

 

But RB is a very interesting situation with really 4 RBs having a strong camp so far in Devin, Moss, Brieda and AW.  But if Gilliam wasn't kept, I think it would be to keep Sweeney though rather than a 4th RB who wont even be active on gameday.

 

I wont rule out keeping 4 RB's, however, I think we most likely keep 3.  And if AW makes his case for one of those 3, then I think we will likely see Beane first try and trade one of the other 3 rather than go into each week with only 2 TE's (again Gillian basically is a 3rd TE as a FB). 

I agree with this personally, but the Bills seem to be 100% committed to Taiwan Jones. He is going to be on the roster and active every game day, even though he offers no positional flexibility or offensive depth.