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Time to hate PFF again...Allen #40, Diggs #45...


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21 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Speaking of regression, it's been statistical regression. 

 

PFF obviously expects more than a statistical regression. 

You make no sense man.  Good night 

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PFF's rankings are ridiculous. Josh Allen should not be rated any lower than the 7th best player.

 

Here are the only 6 players who may have a case for being better right now than Allen

 

1.  Rodgers (reigning MVP)

2. Donald (best Def Player)

3. Mahomes (toss-up w/Allen)

4. Tim Tebow (Chuck Norris status)

5. Ko Simpson (worth millions)

6A Q. Nelson (the one fan that obsesses over a dominant guard)

6B Brady (NE and Tampa fans)

7. Josh Allen

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1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Lol. What? I don't know what has you all worked up man. 

 

 

no what your doing is calling people sensitive and saying there all worked up to try and flame and troll... just knock it off

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3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

no what your doing is calling people sensitive and saying there all worked up to try and flame and troll... just knock it off

I apologize calling you sensitive. I wasn't being mindful of your feelings. I also apologize for saying most people believe Allen will regress statistically. 

 

I'm not trolling though. I can back up what I'm saying. Look up the stats. It's very likely Allen and the offense scores less. Less TD's is very likely. 

 

I won't respond again though. 

Edited by Buffalo_Stampede
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14 hours ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Haha. 8 WRs ranked ahead of Diggs. Another PFF gem. 

I counted 7 - Adams, Hopkins, Hill, Robinson, Jones, Brown & Thomas :) But your point of this being a Diggs snub is certainly valid.

 

For a player like Robinson, the fact he has been catching balls from bad QBs doesnt hurt him - but if Josh Allen is not a great QB, doesnt that make Diggs' 2020 performance standout more? You cant have the cake and eat it too. When a QB - WR duo standout like All-Diggs in 2020, you cannot simultaneously diss both. PFF needs a lesson in internal consistency.

Edited by IgotBILLStopay
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13 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Justin Simmons, a Safety for the Denver Broncos is the 23rd best player in the NFL?  I'm guessing half of NFL Fans have no idea who he is, what he looks like, and who he plays for.

Broncos just made him the highest paid safety in the league. He appears legit - cant say top 50 legit or not for sure - but pretty pretty solid.

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11 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Speaking of regression, it's been statistical regression. 

 

PFF obviously expects more than a statistical regression. 

Heres an excerpt from an article based in Bill Barnwells analytical standpoint on Allen and a regression. This is based mostly from the statistical perspective. Interesting stuff.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31686086/where-2018-nfl-qb-draft-class-stands-three-years-evaluating-lamar-jackson-josh-allen-baker-mayfield-sam-darnold-josh-rosen

 

Was it a fluke? I don't think so. When Wentz made his second-year leap in 2017, there were obvious unsustainable elements of his performance. As I wrote about back then, Wentz's 2017 season was built upon historically great performance on third down and in the red zone, with Wentz posting one of the 10 best seasons of the last decade in either category. Performance in those areas is tough to sustain unless you're dominating elsewhere on the field, and they were a one-year fluke for Wentz; he's 21st in third-down QBR and 10th in red zone QBR over the past three seasons.

There are no obvious outliers like that on Allen's 2020 record. His receivers posted a 2.6% drop rate, which was just a little better than league average. Defenses dropped six would-be Allen interceptions last year, which was slightly below league average. He was fourth in red zone QBR and 10th on third downs. Nothing about his performance suggests he was riding his luck or building his success on an unsustainable house of cards.

 

 

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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1 hour ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Broncos just made him the highest paid safety in the league. He appears legit - cant say top 50 legit or not for sure - but pretty pretty solid.

That may be true but my comments still stand. By the way, don't we have the highest paid Long Snapper?  Where's he on the list?

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2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

That may be true but my comments still stand. By the way, don't we have the highest paid Long Snapper?  Where's he on the list?

I was trying to answer your question in a serious manner. That, however, my friend, is a frivolous argument. Are you seriously comparing a safety to a long snapper?

 

{still being serious}

 

Safety is a pretty important position especially in a passing league. What if I told ya, Simmons is better than Jamal Adams, Honey Badger and Minkah Fitzpatrick - names you might have heard of? Two safeties gets drafted in the first round, on average. It is not so useless a position as you make it out to be. Our defense has performed decently the past few years in no small part because of Hyde and Poyer (even Belichick said so).

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2 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Heres an excerpt from an article based in Bill Barnwells analytical standpoint on Allen and a regression. This is based mostly from the statistical perspective. Interesting stuff.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31686086/where-2018-nfl-qb-draft-class-stands-three-years-evaluating-lamar-jackson-josh-allen-baker-mayfield-sam-darnold-josh-rosen

 

Was it a fluke? I don't think so. When Wentz made his second-year leap in 2017, there were obvious unsustainable elements of his performance. As I wrote about back then, Wentz's 2017 season was built upon historically great performance on third down and in the red zone, with Wentz posting one of the 10 best seasons of the last decade in either category. Performance in those areas is tough to sustain unless you're dominating elsewhere on the field, and they were a one-year fluke for Wentz; he's 21st in third-down QBR and 10th in red zone QBR over the past three seasons.

There are no obvious outliers like that on Allen's 2020 record. His receivers posted a 2.6% drop rate, which was just a little better than league average. Defenses dropped six would-be Allen interceptions last year, which was slightly below league average. He was fourth in red zone QBR and 10th on third downs. Nothing about his performance suggests he was riding his luck or building his success on an unsustainable house of cards.

 

 

One thing stood out to me that I don’t think 17 can replicate.  From my recollection, I have no stats to back this up, Josh completed 49 out of 50 passes to the sideline while in the scramble drill.  Several times, the ball was a couple feet out of bounds and in a spot where only our wr could get close to it.  Seemed like every time he threw it to the sideline, it was picture perfect.  
 

that said, he may go 48/50 this year and I don’t expect that a slight regression in his sideline throws would have an much, if any, impact on his success.  
 

 

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1 hour ago, NewEra said:

One thing stood out to me that I don’t think 17 can replicate.  From my recollection, I have no stats to back this up, Josh completed 49 out of 50 passes to the sideline while in the scramble drill.  Several times, the ball was a couple feet out of bounds and in a spot where only our wr could get close to it.  Seemed like every time he threw it to the sideline, it was picture perfect.  
 

that said, he may go 48/50 this year and I don’t expect that a slight regression in his sideline throws would have an much, if any, impact on his success.  
 

 

That’s a crazy stat. But honestly if a D lets him roll to his right they may as well just head back to the huddle at that point. He’s just an absolute assassin when rolling that way and I have a hard time believing he won’t always be that way…. It also doesn’t hurt that we seem to have Wr’s with great sideline awareness. 
 

Riddick commented on it in the Niners game. If you let him out to his right you may as well just let him sit in a clean pocket. It’s gonna be the same result most likely. 

Edited by Stank_Nasty
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Starting with the idea that this is just plain stupid … a little explanation of what may have gone wrong. 
 

I used to spend a lot of time (too much time) with baseball stats. Baseball is the sport most amenable to these types of stats - it’s a team game composed of individual one on one performances. The standard way to project a player’s future performance is to look at his past 3 or 4 seasons in a weighted average. Something like 40% most recent year, 35%/25% for the 2 years before that. The weightings change as we learn which curve fits better, but the concept remains: it has proven to be the best concept for projecting future performance. Period.

 

Football isn’t baseball. It is much more of a true team game. But if you’ve got a baseball analytics background, your tendency is to use the same tricks. Take a weighted 3 year average of Josh Allen and, well, that rough first year will drag him down, even if only weighted at something like 20%. Should we focus only on his most recent season? No, that would be a mistake too. Should we then go all subjective and say that I just feel that he’s only scratched the surface of his potential? That too is silly. 
 

Long way of saying I just ignore these types of lists in football. One that is based on real value (Expected Performance - Salary) does have some value because it tells us the relative value of young/pre-free agency players vs. free agent veterans. If Josh ranked 20th or so on that list with Trevor Lawrence above him, well, that list is worth arguing over. This one isn’t. 

 

Edited by The Frankish Reich
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