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Fairburn would swap Allen for Mahomes. Would you?


Would you swap Allen for Mahomes in a player for player swap?  

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  1. 1. Would you swap Allen for Mahomes in a player for player swap?



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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah, you're right. That argument holds no water. It's also a disgusting twisting of one small part of what I said while leaving out a bunch of other important stuff:

 

Mahomes has been the better QB, obviously.  But he's benefitted from so many things that have already been talked about, including growing up with a professional athlete as a father, being recruited by D1 schools out of HS and playing legit college competition along with all the other KC stuff (Redshirt year, Tyreek Hill & Travis Kelce, excellent OL right out the gate, Alex Smith showing him the ropes, Andy Reid, being on a team that's made the playoffs consistently, etc.) in ways that Josh simply hasn't... and yet Josh, despite starting out 1 minute behind has pretty much caught up with Mahomes--or is pretty close to it--and also benefits from the added internal motivation from his hundreds of unread letters/emails to college coaches out of HS, the continued disrespect, and all those physical traits he has that Mahomes doesn't have--Josh is taller, huskier and stronger and is at least the equal in terms of arm strength and mobility.  Plus, we've seen that he's now caught up (or is nearly there) in terms of accuracy, as well.

 

Pretty much that entire paragraph is why I choose Josh on the Bills over Mahomes on the Bills. 

 

Which parts are irrational?

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Like I said.

 

You can try to make a predictive argument, “this guy isn’t better than the other guy but will be,” which is based on nothing.

 

Your issue is that everyone picking Mahomes is talking about the past. Unfortunately, in a situation like this, the past is reality. It’s all we truly know. There is a bunch of a fluff arguments as to why Josh will be better than Mahomes (and this is a Bills board so I get it, I get caught up in it too) but that’s it. It’s based on nonsense like “he’s hungrier! He’s perfect for Buffalo! He’s tough!! He didn’t get offers in college, he got so much better from SUCKING that he will put up 80 TDs on this TRAJECTORY” all of which are absolute JOKES in terms of argumentative gravity. It’s the same spin of why Tyrod is quietly spectacular and the rest of the clown car of QB’s in Bills past. Just pure nonsense and fandom. “He’s got a bigger frame so he’ll be better” is not an argument, it’s a prediction. What am I supposed to say to that, no he won’t? He isn’t bigger? It’s like two children in a sand box playing pretend trumping each other with super powers. “I shoot you with my eye lasers and you die” “well I have a super secret eye laser shield so I deflect it and you die.” 
 

Again, it’s a Bills board so whatever. Half of these folks thought Mahomes 2018 was a flash in the pan and he was gonna be the next RG3. I really don’t care to convince homers not to be homers. Do your thang. I’m just pretty confident on 31 other NFL teams message boards and in a majority of NFL front offices, they are picking Mahomes over Allen. And guess what, I’m okay with that too. Allen is the second best young QB in football, he’s a great kid, he’s easy to root for and he’s a superstar. The best QB doesn’t win the Super Bowl every year. This isn’t the NBA.

Edited by FireChans
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4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Pretty hard to look at Allen’s statistical ascendancy and claim there is zero reason to predict he’ll be better than Mahomes but eh

No, I think that argument holds some merit. It just has two large problems.

 

1. Holds Mahomes’ greatness against him. Allen got his weapons and time to develop and became a superstar. Mahomes had weapons in place and was a superstar out of the box (in terms of when he first started.)

 

2. Piggybacking off that, if Mahomes and Allen were drafted to opposite teams, like is so often argued, and Mahomes had to deal with the bum brigade in 18, then 19 with Brown and Bease, then a true 1 in Diggs in 2020, wouldn’t we have expected a meteoric rise in his statistics as well?

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No way would I swap them.  

 

Look at the trajectory.  Mahomes is the same guy he was when he first became a starter and took the league by storm. Allen's improvement is legendary at this point, and there are no real signs that he has hit his ceiling.

 

I also think that - while both are competitive - Allen has more of that psycho Brady thing in him.  

 

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The thing that skews things in favor for Mahomes is that Andy Reid historically has a great track record of building extraordinary teams. He always seems to have playmakers everywhere on his roster dating back to his days in Philly with McNabb. Now he finally has an A+ QB in Pat Mahomes. I will say that Allen would not of had the success that Mahomes has had in KC, but I will also say that Mahomes would have not had the same success he’s had with KC in Buffalo. Mahomes is the better QB, but Allen was built for this city and this team. Given the choice between Kermit the Frog and Josh Allen, I take Allen.

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2 hours ago, FireChans said:

No, I think that argument holds some merit. It just has two large problems.

 

1. Holds Mahomes’ greatness against him. Allen got his weapons and time to develop and became a superstar. Mahomes had weapons in place and was a superstar out of the box (in terms of when he first started.)

 

2. Piggybacking off that, if Mahomes and Allen were drafted to opposite teams, like is so often argued, and Mahomes had to deal with the bum brigade in 18, then 19 with Brown and Bease, then a true 1 in Diggs in 2020, wouldn’t we have expected a meteoric rise in his statistics as well?

Sure, and then there would have been equally valid reasons to suggest that Mahomes might be better than Allen.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Sure, and then there would have been equally valid reasons to suggest that Mahomes might be better than Allen.

If that would be equally valid the other way, then it supports “nothing.” Lol. It’s a wash.

Edited by FireChans
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I wouldn't trade. 

 

Mahomes has been better for each of the last three seasons.  However, I'm trading for the future, not the past, and the question is who will be better on the long run?   It's a close question, and I'd bet that on a Chiefs board, the vote comes out the opposite as here.   Still, here is why I prefer Allen:

 

1.  Better arm.  Yes, Mahomes has a howitzer, but Allen can make all the fundamental throws more easily than Mahomes, because he has better arm strength.  All hasn't made the highlight-reel no-look passes that Mahomes is famous for, but Allen already is making the sidearm throws and most other funky throws.   But plain all slants, outs, deep balls all are less work for Allen to throw, which means he can make those throws better when he's in trouble, and it probably means he will age better.  Big Ben still makes some amazing throws, and it's just because of his size.  

 

2.  Running ability. May not be a long-term benefit, but so long as Allen is a true running threat, he has an edge on Mahomes. 

 

3.  Ability to avoid pressure in the pocket.   Allen's strength in the face of pressure is a clear advantage.   Incidental hits don't both him. 

 

4.  Coaching and surrounding cast.   Part of Mahomes success has been that he has an offensive genius as a coach and he has Kelce and Hill.  I think that if the Bills and Chiefs traded QBs, Allen would clearly be better in KC that Mahomes in Buffalo.  In other words, I think Allen is a good QB, period.  Put him on any team, and he's going to excel.   Put Mahomes on a mediocre team and he'll struggle more.  

 

5.  I'm a Bills fan. 

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13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think when Mahomes retires he will have multiple Superbowl titles and every major passing record in NFL history. He has already had the best 3 year start to a career ever and I don't see much reason to expect it to slow down. 

I think the important question is when will Andy Reid retire?   If Reid is there 15 more years, yes, you may be right.   But he's 63, and he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who's going to do this past age 70.  Reid would have to coach past 75 to be Mahomes' only coach.   Just my hunch.   

 

Mahomes is a QB who's made for Reid, and Reid is a coach made for homes.   I don't know that Mahomes will have the same success with the next coach. 

 

Allen and McDermott fit, too.   They likely will be together for all of Allen's career.   McDermott hasn't isn't the genius Reid is, but in time he will have a genius OC, and then we'll see Allen really excel.  For example, if Reid were Allen's offensive coordinator with the Bills in 2021 , Allen the current receivers might blow the top off the league.   McDermott and his OC will get there, but it will take a few years. 

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8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think the important question is when will Andy Reid retire?   If Reid is there 15 more years, yes, you may be right.   But he's 63, and he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who's going to do this past age 70.  Reid would have to coach past 75 to be Mahomes' only coach.   Just my hunch.   

 

Mahomes is a QB who's made for Reid, and Reid is a coach made for homes.   I don't know that Mahomes will have the same success with the next coach. 

 

Allen and McDermott fit, too.   They likely will be together for all of Allen's career.   McDermott hasn't isn't the genius Reid is, but in time he will have a genius OC, and then we'll see Allen really excel.  For example, if Reid were Allen's offensive coordinator with the Bills in 2021 , Allen the current receivers might blow the top off the league.   McDermott and his OC will get there, but it will take a few years. 

 

I disagree that it matters much. It matters early in a Quarterback's development but I don't think once you have a seasoned vet it matters. I think Mahomes would be great at this point with Chan Gailey calling the plays. He wouldn't have been great off the bat in that scenario, I grant you, but at this point I don't think it matters. Similarly while I think Daboll deserves credit for his work with Josh at this stage where Josh is I don't think he'd have regressed had Daboll moved on. The early years it matters much more.

 

Pat Mahomes, in my opinion, is very likely to be considered the greatest to ever do it at the point he retires. I know that isn't a popular opinion here, but that is genuinely my view. 

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1 hour ago, NJKBillsfan said:

Anyone reasonable person would swap Allen for Mahomes.


This is just ridiculous. Lol

Nah.  Any reasonable person would see that there are pros and cons to each qb.  I feel that Mahomes is the better QB but there are several reasons why I wouldn’t swap Allen for Mahomes. 

 

 

I’m already married to 17.  There isn’t another QB that could even tempt me to cheat. Til retirement due us part. 
 

He’s a big m************r that choke slams opposing defensive ends and LB on the same play.

 

That arm.

 

Those legs.

 

His wife.  Mahomes has one of the most annoying families ever

 

His parents.  They go to every game and is always out and about at the big tailgates drinking with the Mafia

 

His ceiling.  Name a QB in league history with a higher ceiling and I’ll call your bluff.  

 

His personality. He is Buffalo.

 

He’s ours.
 

 

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7 hours ago, FireChans said:

Like I said.

 

You can try to make a predictive argument, “this guy isn’t better than the other guy but will be,” which is based on nothing.

 

 

Except it's not based on nothing.  You just don't read.

 

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

Your issue is that everyone picking Mahomes is talking about the past. Unfortunately, in a situation like this, the past is reality. It’s all we truly know. There is a bunch of a fluff arguments as to why Josh will be better than Mahomes (and this is a Bills board so I get it, I get caught up in it too) but that’s it. It’s based on nonsense like “he’s hungrier! He’s perfect for Buffalo! He’s tough!! He didn’t get offers in college, he got so much better from SUCKING that he will put up 80 TDs on this TRAJECTORY” all of which are absolute JOKES in terms of argumentative gravity. It’s the same spin of why Tyrod is quietly spectacular and the rest of the clown car of QB’s in Bills past. Just pure nonsense and fandom. “He’s got a bigger frame so he’ll be better” is not an argument, it’s a prediction. What am I supposed to say to that, no he won’t? He isn’t bigger? It’s like two children in a sand box playing pretend trumping each other with super powers. “I shoot you with my eye lasers and you die” “well I have a super secret eye laser shield so I deflect it and you die.” 
 

 

You're being silly.  I don't mind someone saying they'd make the trade because Mahomes has been better than Josh Allen in his first 3 years and is better right now.  That's what you're saying, and that's fine.

 

But what you're also saying, which borders on arrogance, is that it's completely irrational to argue otherwise.  You're arguing that the only thing you CAN consider is the past, and that's just silly.

 

Since you're being silly, humor me with a silly exercise.

 

Train A and train B leave a train station at exactly the same time on a parallel path and we know nothing about either's max speed or where certain checkpoints are... only the time each reaches 6 specific out of 10.  

 

Checkpoint 1:  Train A (1 hour)            Train B (3 hours)

Checkpoint 2:  Train A (2 1/2 hours)   Train B (4 hours)

Checkpoint 3:  Train A (3 1/2 hours)   Train B (5 hours)

Checkpoint 4:  Train A (4 1/2 hours)   Train B (5 hours 45 minutes)

Checkpoint 5:  Train A (5 1/2 hours)   Train B (6 hours 20 minutes)

Checkpoint 6:  Train A (6 1/2 hours)   Train B (6 hours 45 minutes)

Checkpoint 7:

Checkpoint 8:

Checkpoint 9:

Final Destination:

 

 

So, at this point I'm sure you've figured out that in my eyes, Patrick Mahomes is Train A and Josh Allen is Train B.  Train B started waaaaAAAaaayyyy behind Train A, which clearly accelerated much more quickly and reached its top speed early, which it maintained very consistently.  But train B, while behind, has been making up lost ground pretty quickly.

 

Train A is clearly ahead of Train B right now.  And maybe Train A isn't maxing out its speed, but Train B is.  Or maybe Train B will need to stop soon for a lengthy refuel because it's using too much in order to run at such a high speed.  We don't know those things right now, just what we have there.

 

You're claiming I'm being irrational betting on Train B because Train A is still clearly ahead of Train B and always has been.  And that makes you silly.

 

You can't simultaneously claim that the past in terms of production for Mahomes is predictive while also saying that Allen's recent past in terms of drastic offseason improvement is fantasy.  If you can't consider both, you're being silly.  You can consider both and still reach the conclusion that you'd take Mahomes over Allen.  I'd disagree.  But at least at that point you're being honest in your consideration.

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2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Except it's not based on nothing.  You just don't read.

 

 

You're being silly.  I don't mind someone saying they'd make the trade because Mahomes has been better than Josh Allen in his first 3 years and is better right now.  That's what you're saying, and that's fine.

 

But what you're also saying, which borders on arrogance, is that it's completely irrational to argue otherwise.  You're arguing that the only thing you CAN consider is the past, and that's just silly.

 

Since you're being silly, humor me with a silly exercise.

 

Train A and train B leave a train station at exactly the same time on a parallel path and we know nothing about either's max speed or where certain checkpoints are... only the time each reaches 6 specific out of 10.  

 

Checkpoint 1:  Train A (1 hour)            Train B (3 hours)

Checkpoint 2:  Train A (2 1/2 hours)   Train B (4 hours)

Checkpoint 3:  Train A (3 1/2 hours)   Train B (5 hours)

Checkpoint 4:  Train A (4 1/2 hours)   Train B (5 hours 45 minutes)

Checkpoint 5:  Train A (5 1/2 hours)   Train B (6 hours 20 minutes)

Checkpoint 6:  Train A (6 1/2 hours)   Train B (6 hours 45 minutes)

Checkpoint 7:

Checkpoint 8:

Checkpoint 9:

Final Destination:

 

 

So, at this point I'm sure you've figured out that in my eyes, Patrick Mahomes is Train A and Josh Allen is Train B.  Train B started waaaaAAAaaayyyy behind Train A, which clearly accelerated much more quickly and reached its top speed early, which it maintained very consistently.  But train B, while behind, has been making up lost ground pretty quickly.

 

Train A is clearly ahead of Train B right now.  And maybe Train A isn't maxing out its speed, but Train B is.  Or maybe Train B will need to stop soon for a lengthy refuel because it's using too much in order to run at such a high speed.  We don't know those things right now, just what we have there.

 

You're claiming I'm being irrational betting on Train B because Train A is still clearly ahead of Train B and always has been.  And that makes you silly.

 

You can't simultaneously claim that the past in terms of production for Mahomes is predictive while also saying that Allen's recent past in terms of drastic offseason improvement is fantasy.  If you can't consider both, you're being silly.  You can consider both and still reach the conclusion that you'd take Mahomes over Allen.  I'd disagree.  But at least at that point you're being honest in your consideration.

Yes. You can parse it any way you want, but at best there’s a 51% chance Mahomes is better and 49% chance Allen is. That’s just based on reality.

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8 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

Your issue is that everyone picking Mahomes is talking about the past. Unfortunately, in a situation like this, the past is reality. It’s all we truly know.

Someone hasn't watched Tenet!

 

Im Ready Lets Go GIF by Regal

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16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yes. You can parse it any way you want, but at best there’s a 51% chance Mahomes is better and 49% chance Allen is. That’s just based on reality.

 

It's funny that you refuse to respond to rational arguments, but choose to cherry pick phrases and sentences from larger arguments as indications that the whole argument is irrational.

 

As for 51% vs 49%, I think any statistician would call that a statistical tie.

 

This must be you actually conceding that your initial definitive "the correct answer is yes" was off-base.  Thank you  :beer:

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's funny that you refuse to respond to rational arguments, but choose to cherry pick phrases and sentences from larger arguments as indications that the whole argument is irrational.

 

As for 51% vs 49%, I think any statistician would call that a statistical tie.

 

This must be you actually conceding that your initial definitive "the correct answer is yes" was off-base.  Thank you  :beer:

You just write such large posts. Brevity is the soul of wit and all that you know?

 

51% vs 49% as an abstract would demonstrate that while you can argue it’s close, Mahomes still has a better chance. 
 

So again, the correct answer is yes. As I said at that start. Picking a lower probability is how you lose all your money in cards.

Edited by FireChans
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