Fairburn would swap Allen for Mahomes. Would you?

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not basing it on stats. I object to that assertion. I am basing it on football. I have never seen a Quarterback be as consistently excellent as Patrick Mahomes out of the box. He was pretty much the best Quarterback in the league the moment he stepped on the field. I see absolutely zero reason to suspect he slows down. I totally reject your "he needs Andy Reid" assertion. So in order to pass him Josh needs to continue on his phenomenal upward curve. Possible? Yes. But at some point the progression likely levels off (which is no bad thing because levelling off at last year's standard means being an elite Quarterback) but it isn't enough to surpass Mahomes.

 

Did you watch the Super Bowl?

 

His last game in the NFL was his worst game. It's possible the league is figuring out how to slow him down.

Edited May 28, 2021 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Substantially worse playcaller?

 

Absolutely disagree. Reid is a great coach. Daboll isn’t as good. But you know what, Daboll OCed the #2 offense in football last year. And he looks better every year his QB plays better because execution has been this teams’ #1 problem since he was hired.

 

Do you know why Andy Reid has been so much better in KC? It’s because his QB’s are better. 
 

Your hypothetical is exactly right. Objectively, you’d take Mahomes. If Josh is your boy, you want to take your boy. 
 

I’ve said this for like 15 pages now.

 

If you agree one choice is objectively the superior pick, but someone might take someone else because he plays for the Bills, that’s definitely a bias. Call it homer, call it whatever you want.

 

Hilariously enough, if I was the Bills GM I don’t know if I could make that trade if it was offered. I love Josh. But I can admit that’s not me being objective. That’s all.

 

Before Mahomes Andy Reid made Alex Smith a pro bowler, turned Mike Vick into a legitimate passing threat, coached Kevin Kolb into the mirage of a good QB so he could stay in the NFL and get a lucrative contract, and brought Philadelphia to the NFC Championship 4 years in a row with non HOF talent on offense save for one year with T.O.

 

We all love Daboll... now.

 

Andy Reid is very clearly the superior play caller and QB developer. It's absolutely foolish to argue otherwise.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did you watch the Super Bowl?

 

His last game in the NFL was his worst game. It's possible the league is figuring out how to slow him down.

Did you not see 4 tampa bay pass rushers whoop 5 KC backup OLmen the entire game.  You can’t act like this doesn’t matter.  Josh had 4 starters (basically 5 as Ford is barely considered a starter and we were better without him) and was running for his life vs a lesser (than Tampa’s) front 4.  Look at how many bad games Mahomes has had in his career.  How many would you say he’s had? Yes, the SB was his worst.... and his supporting cast was also his worst. People here are always saying that Josh sucked his rookie year, mainly because his WRs were awful .... well Mahomes sucked in the SB, mainly because his OL was beyond awful.  Rewatch the game and see how many times (and how quickly) the KC OL got whooped 1 on 1. 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

With all due respect, what does this mean? It’s one game. The worst of his career.....playing with 5 backup OL.  How many backup OL did Josh have in the AFCCG?  Mahomes played behind a inferior OL vs a much better front 7.  Mahomes has already accomplished the 2 things that potential GOATs need to accomplish to “be in the conversation”.  He knocked both out in his first 2 years as a starter.  Josh has accomplished neither.  Sure, he might..... but he hasn’t.  As of now, talking about Josh in terms of being one of the greatest ever is pure speculation.  The only thing he’s won is our hearts.  Meanwhile, Mahomes is checking off the boxes that make one the GOAT.

Sorry guys, but this is the facts.  I love Josh as much as anyone here, but this talk.....after one amazing season, is premature.  Jumping the gun.  Sustained dominance. When Josh wins a SB, we can have this conversation for real.  All the talk about supporting cast is nonsense.  No one cares.  Ask Dan Marino

 

Holy

 

Crap...

 

The bolded...

 

reverse it...

 

consider Allen's entry into Football and his first couple years vs Mahomes...

 

that's why you don't trade Allen for Mahomes.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

26 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did you watch the Super Bowl?

 

His last game in the NFL was his worst game. It's possible the league is figuring out how to slow him down.

 Damn that’s bad news for Josh considering his last game 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

It seems you and @FireChan think Allen has hit his ceiling and is about to hit a wall. Am I wrong?

 

 

Yes. You are wrong. I have said elsewhere on this board since January that I think there may still be headroom left for Allen. It is just a little bit the law of diminishing returns at this stage because the plateau is undoubtedly closer. My view on this matter is much less about Josh Allen and much more about Patrick Mahomes. The kid is so good that only teams who pressure him on more than 50% of his dropbacks can beat him. They are the numbers. You have to get to him at an incredible rate to make him human. I believe he is incredibly special.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Did you watch the Super Bowl?

 

His last game in the NFL was his worst game. It's possible the league is figuring out how to slow him down.

 

There is no secret how to stop Mahomes. Get pressure on him more than 50% of his dropbacks. It is just that formula is incredibly difficult to achieve. And this is where the homerism is in this argument to me. It isn't in what Bills fans think of Allen - he had an incredible 2020 and is going to be really good for a very long time. The homerism is Bills fans concocting arguments about why there is going to be some slowing down or dropping off from Mahomes. I have heard "wait until Reid retires" and "he hurt his foot in the playoffs he will never be the same" and "concussions!" and "he was not good in the Superbowl". I reject every single one of those arguments as nothing but blind hope. The Bills are really good. Allen is elite. But the roadblock between this team and the Lombardi is, to my mind, the most talented Quarterback I have ever seen. There are ways past him but I am not going to pretend they are easy. Because for as long as he is strapping them up in Kansas City they are the team everyone else in the AFC has to beat.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

 Damn that’s bad news for Josh considering his last game 

 

Maybe. But Josh's last game wasn't as bad as Mahomes's last game.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Holy

 

Crap...

 

The bolded...

 

reverse it...

 

consider Allen's entry into Football and his first couple years vs Mahomes...

 

that's why you don't trade Allen for Mahomes.

Yeah......like I said.....the bolded has been rehashed here several times over.  Everyone, me included, has said that our OL and WRs in 2018 played a huge part in Allens bad play as a rookie.  Regardless of how bad they were, the 2018 Josh Allen wasn’t nearly the QB that 2020 allen was.  He has improved leaps and bounds.  That Josh allen wouldn’t have won an mvp and a super bowl in his first 2 years of he were on the chiefs.  My opinion of course.  
 

I think your take is one sided and you don’t give Mahomes nearly the credit he deserves.  I think Allen is god like..... but the disrespect Mahomes gets here shows how so much of this fan base doesn’t know how to deal with success. We finally have an elite qb....but we can’t just enjoy him for what he is, a top 3 QB that’s just getting better, without conjuring up over reactionary projections that denounces the accomplishments of others.

 

the last sentence you wrote.....that’s why YOU take allen over Mahomes. I take him because he’s a badass

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is no secret how to stop Mahomes. Get pressure on him more than 50% of his dropbacks. It is just that formula is incredibly difficult to achieve. And this is where the homerism is in this argument to me. It isn't in what Bills fans think of Allen - he had an incredible 2020 and is going to be really good for a very long time. The homerism is Bills fans concocting arguments about why there is going to be some slowing down or dropping off from Mahomes. I have heard "wait until Reid retires" and "he hurt his foot in the playoffs he will never be the same" and "concussions!" and "he was not good in the Superbowl". I reject every single one of those arguments as nothing but blind hope. The Bills are really good. Allen is elite. But the roadblock between this team and the Lombardi is, to my mind, the most talented Quarterback I have ever seen. There are ways past him but I am not going to pretend they are easy. Because for as long as he is strapping them up in Kansas City they are the team everyone else in the AFC has to beat.

This is the same reason they all shat on Watson pre-2020. It’s not enough that Allen is great and one of the best. Everyone else must be torn down!

[Thurman#1]

Yeah, I'd do it, and I love Josh Allen.

[HappyDays]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The homerism is Bills fans concocting arguments about why there is going to be some slowing down or dropping off from Mahomes.

 

If you believe Allen played just as well as Mahomes in 2020, and also that only a homer would take Allen over Mahomes, then you must be predicting Allen will drop off from his play last year, right? That or you're projecting Mahomes to get even better.

[GoBills808]

36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you believe Allen played just as well as Mahomes in 2020, and also that only a homer would take Allen over Mahomes, then you must be predicting Allen will drop off from his play last year, right? That or you're projecting Mahomes to get even better.

Ask him what he said when Allen was drafted. I’d go elsewhere for my QB takes😂😂

[DCOrange]

Love Allen, but yeah, I'd swap without hesitation.

 

Not sure that's the biggest upgrade we could make though even factoring in the importance of the QB position.

[Shaw66]

55 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you believe Allen played just as well as Mahomes in 2020, and also that only a homer would take Allen over Mahomes, then you must be predicting Allen will drop off from his play last year, right? That or you're projecting Mahomes to get even better.

I would not trade Allen for Mahomes, for reasons I've already stated.   And Gunner doesn't need anyone to speak for him, but now that I understand what he's saying, let me give it a shot. 

 

Over the past three seasons Mahomes probably has played quarterback better than anyone we've ever seen, and it really isn't close.   You can compare stats with Brady if you want, and maybe you can find three years where Brady is his equal, but probably not and certainly not Brady's first three years.    Peyton maybe - stats don't capture the extraordinary field general qualities that Peyton had.  Over three years, though, Mahomes statistically has easily been their equal or surpassed them.   On top of that Mahomes has shown the ability to make the extraordinary play - he personally is a game changer.  Neither Peyton nor Brady could run, and Mahomes is a serious threat to take off with the ball.    Brady and Peyton were extraordinary technicians; Mahomes is a magician.  

 

So, Gunner's argument is not about one getting better or another getting worse.  His argument is that Mahomes through three years has been in a class by himself.   Allen, even last season, was not that guy.   Now, you can argue that last point.   Statistically they were a push, more or less, neither won the Super Bowl.  But despite all the magical things that Allen has been doing, and they've been truly magical, Mahomes is the guy you want on the field with two minutes left needing a score to win.  As Gunner says, he's just that good. 

 

It's a good argument.  

 

I just think the chances are pretty good that Allen will continue to improve, I think Allen's size will give him an advantage later in his career when he has to stand in the pocket more and run less, and despite what Gunner says, I think Mahomes will not be as good when Reid retires.  

 

After the 2019 season, I concluded that Allen and Mahomes would be the two greatest QBs of the era, because just like it is obvious that there never has been any QB like Mahomes, there's never been a QB like Allen, either.    I think if you asked NFL GMs if they were building a team for the next 15 years and they could have any QB they wanted, there's a good chance that EVERY GM would say Mahomes or Allen.  Who else are you going to take?  Herbert?  Tua?  Watson?  Mayfield?  Lamar?   Are you going to bet on Trevor Lawrence over either Mahomes or Allen without having seen him take an NFL snap?  Seems to me it's a no brainer.  Gunner would take Mahomes, I'd take Allen, but he'd be happy (I think) with Allen and I'd be happy with Mahomes.   The other 30 GMs would be guessing.  

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

I like to take the argument “Mahomes wouldn’t have been as good if he were drafted by Buffalo” and look at it from another angle. How good would the Bills have been with Mahomes in 2017 (and beyond)?

I think they still go with Tyrod as the starter, but Tyrod still gets benched in this alternate reality and instead of Peterman stepping in it’s Mahomes taking the reigns against LA and maybe sooner.
 

While I have to agree that Mahomes wouldn’t have put up the same insane numbers in Buffalo that he did on a loaded KC offense; I believe he could have put up more than 10 points against Jacksonville in the wild card game. The Jax team that made the championship and was a quarter away from the Super Bowl. 

[Doc]

15 hours ago, NewEra said:

Sure, just like jerry Rices supporting cast.  I don’t hear anyone saying that Larry Fitz would be better if he played with Rices’ supporting cast.  Or Calvin Johnson.  Or Wayne Gretzkys supporting cast.  Bill Russel”s.  It’s just part of the equation.   Meanwhile, Dan Marino and his crap cast of teammates sits outside in the cold.  That’s just how it is.  
 

of course the talk of Mahomes being the GOAT is premature.  He’s only started 3 years.  And had the best first 3 years of any QB in history.....and it’s not really close.  Is it? 
 

It didn’t stop anyone from talking about Tiger catching Jack after his third year.  When athletes come in and win the sports 3 most prestigious awards in their first 2 years, talk of all time greatness is inevitable.  premature or not, his projection is that of one of the best ever.  It’s not slight on Josh.  As much as I can’t stand him, Mahomes is worthy of the discussion imo.  

 

We can argue about the supporting casts of those greats.  However for the current discussion, Mahomes clearly has a better supporting cast and as such, I'd still keep Allen for numerous reasons.  And I was a guy who wanted nothing to do with Allen prior to the draft and thought he wasn't the guy even as recent as a year ago.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

If you believe Allen played just as well as Mahomes in 2020, and also that only a homer would take Allen over Mahomes, then you must be predicting Allen will drop off from his play last year, right? That or you're projecting Mahomes to get even better.

 

I never said only a homer would take Allen over Mahomes. I said I see the argument. What I consider homerish is the belief that it is more likely than not that Allen outperforms Mahomes. That to me is people projecting Mahomes gets worse and I see no justification for that argument. 

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Ask him what he said when Allen was drafted. I’d go elsewhere for my QB takes😂😂

 

I did not like Allen as a draft pick. But that is totally irrelevant to the current discussion unless you want to play the emotion game. Which I have zero time for.

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

What I consider homerish is the belief that it is more likely than not that Allen outperforms Mahomes.

 

I don't think anyone is trying to argue this, unless I've missing something. There are several people in this thread arguing that it is objectively true that Mahomes should be the pick over Allen, I haven't seen the opposite.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think anyone is trying to argue this, unless I've missing something. There are several people in this thread arguing that it is objectively true that Mahomes should be the pick over Allen, I haven't seen the opposite.

That’s the implication behind “Josh’s trajectory.”

 

No one has said “I think it’s more likely Mahomes is slightly better but I stick with Allen.” Except maybe @NewEra

Edited May 28, 2021 by FireChans