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Who are the 49er's going to take at 3


wagne591
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2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You don't trade three first rounders plus for a non-QB. It would be utterly crazy. Like if the house is offering you one-to-one odds on picking one number on a roulette wheel, and you take it and bet all your money on it ... that kind of crazy.

 

So I say there's no doubt they go QB there.

 

Which one? My guess is Mac. It's not that confident a guess, though. Based on what kind of QB he's gravitated towards and succeeded with in the past.

 

The only alternative to a QB I can seriously imagine is that they trade out from three and collect picks and a guy they like better than they would have liked the #12 pick. But IMO that's wildly unlikely.


From Albert Breer’s MMQB column today:

 

‘Here are 20 other things you need to know …

1) When I had Dilfer on my podcast, he said that Jones has a “twitchy mind,” a reference to how fast he processes and plays. This, so you know, checks out with NFL people. One team told me that it asked him in April to recall the first thing they’d installed with him over predraft meetings, and Jones immediately spit out everything about the play. And remember, at this point of the process, these kids have a lot floating around in their heads, given the number of teams (and other people) they’re talking to. “He’s as smart as advertised,” said one exec. “I’d say borderline genius when it comes to football.”

2) Obviously, the possibility that Jones would be in play has led to a lot of intrigue with the Niners at No. 3. The team’s brass is still swearing to other teams that they haven’t made a final decision on what they plan to do. Seem impossible? Sure it does, until you really think about it. Of course, Kyle Shanahan had a leaning when the trade was made. He’d done two months of work on those guys. It’d be hard not to have one at that point. But what if, for argument’s sake, Shanahan came to a comfort level with one of the three quarterbacks (beyond Lawrence and Wilson) that the Niners saw as first-rounders? And what if he said, I can see Mac Jones being my quarterback for the next 15 years? And what if he was also intrigued by Lance and Fields, but used Jones as the baseline, the I know I’m going to like what I get at No. 3 regardless guy? And what if that was just the starting point for a month of work to get to know all three and make the best call? That, it seems to me, would be a smart approach for a smart organization. And honestly, I think it is their approach.‘

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/19/mmqb-nfl-draft-primer-20-things-to-know-offseason-workout-squabble

 

From Peter King’s column:

 

”3. SAN FRANCISCO. Today’s the last day of substance in fact-finding for the Niners, with GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan expected in Fargo at North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance’s second workout. The leader in the clubhouse is still Alabama’s Mac Jones, but that’s all Jones is. Credit to Lynch and Shanahan for keeping a tight lid on their preference. I keep coming back to Jones’ accuracy (his 77.4-percent season in 2020 is the most accurate in major-college history) and his touch downfield, with the best accuracy of the top five quarterbacks on passes thrown 20 yards or more downfield.

I think Shanahan will value accuracy and presence over athleticism and prefer Jones, but that’s not inside info—just my gut feeling.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/

 

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Pick #3 for the 49er's will be a QB. Unless your Doug Whaley, you don't mortgage the future for a TE or WR. Shanahan seems to be a system guy and favors a certain type of QB. He is looking for a field general who has the capacity to know his system inside and out. QB movement doesn't appear to be a requirement. Kirk Cousins certainly isn't "the second coming of Michael Vick." I think Mac Jones is headed to SF.

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5 minutes ago, RosieLeaks48 said:

Pick #3 for the 49er's will be a QB. Unless your Doug Whaley, you don't mortgage the future for a TE or WR. Shanahan seems to be a system guy and favors a certain type of QB. He is looking for a field general who has the capacity to know his system inside and out. QB movement doesn't appear to be a requirement. Kirk Cousins certainly isn't "the second coming of Michael Vick." I think Mac Jones is headed to SF.

And Kirk cousins is hilarious to watch when under pressure.  Mobility is never a negative.  Only a positive.  Having mobility is always better than having no mobility.  

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51 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

From Peter King’s column:

 

”3. SAN FRANCISCO. Today’s the last day of substance in fact-finding for the Niners, with GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan expected in Fargo at North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance’s second workout. The leader in the clubhouse is still Alabama’s Mac Jones, but that’s all Jones is. Credit to Lynch and Shanahan for keeping a tight lid on their preference. I keep coming back to Jones’ accuracy (his 77.4-percent season in 2020 is the most accurate in major-college history) and his touch downfield, with the best accuracy of the top five quarterbacks on passes thrown 20 yards or more downfield.

I think Shanahan will value accuracy and presence over athleticism and prefer Jones, but that’s not inside info—just my gut feeling.”

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/

 

The thing about this is, Mac Jones isn't the most accurate QB in the class.

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1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Are your really suggesting that the niners should take Kyle Pitts after trading 3 1st rd picks and a 3rd?  

Strange considering your stance less than a year ago.  

“Hence the decreasing value of a top receiving TE on that team.  They essentially won (almost a SB) with him ghosting the playoffs.”  Now you suggest they trade 3 1sts and a 3rd to draft a SECOND tight end?  Can’t wait to see how you twist your words up this time.

 

 

 

You’re suggesting the niners (and shanahan) should put their trust in Jimmy Brokenappolo to stay healthy for more than 1 of 3 seasons?  The delicate and vulnerable midgeee QB that has no mobility  gives them their best chance for sustained success?  Or are you just talking about who gives them the best chance for one season if he were to remain healthy?  Two completely different things.

 

no one knows if any of these potential draftees will be good.  Lance or Mac may be bums when it’s all said and done.  Pitts may never make the playoffs if the the niners select him and keep Slimmy G as their franchise QB.  
 

My feelings remains the same.  You don’t trade all of those assets so you can draft a tight end, especially when you already have George Kittle and are paying him 15M a year.  It doesn’t make sense.  

 

No need to twist words.  That team needs playmakers.  Kittle and Pitts would be unstoppable.  

 

Why do you think it's wiser to spend 3 1st rounders and a 3rd for kid who played one season of small school college ball (2 years ago!) instead of an NFL ready stud ball catcher/playmaker?  Just curious.

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Do you think a real friend is going around on radio and giving away his buddy’s draft picks?

Read his post.  He acknowledges that Shanahan did not tell Simms who he’s drafting.

32 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

No need to twist words.  That team needs playmakers.  Kittle and Pitts would be unstoppable.  

 

Why do you think it's wiser to spend 3 1st rounders and a 3rd for kid who played one season of small school college ball (2 years ago!) instead of an NFL ready stud ball catcher/playmaker?  Just curious.

 

 

 

They are not taking Lance.  That would be totally reckless.

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1 hour ago, NewEra said:

And Kirk cousins is hilarious to watch when under pressure.  Mobility is never a negative.  Only a positive.  Having mobility is always better than having no mobility.  

The top QBs in this draft are all accurate. The difference between Jones and the other 3 (Wilson, Jones, Lance) is accuracy on the move. Who can win both inside and outside the pocket as well as unlock Shanny’s zone read concepts. The deep analysis shows Fields is more accurate out of the pocket and consistently better with ball placement. He was also asked to throw downfield significantly more. Peter King with some pretty lazy analysis upthread. There is no evidence that Jones is more accurate than fields. If you throw a lot of screen passes your percentage is inflated. Peter king also always admits to never watching CFB so there’s that. Fields accuracy at all 3 levels plus ability to run (which he really should do more than he does... he is ultra confident, even arrogant, in his arm and his accuracy and will take chances from the pocket when he could probably bail for a ton of rushing yards.)

 

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15 hours ago, wagne591 said:

People are saying the draft starts at pick 3 with the 49er's, but who will they pick? When Shanahan took over in 2017, the roster was in good shape except for a QB in which he traded for his guy in Jimmy Garoppolo and 2 years later they were in the Superbowl (2019 Season).  So why would the 49er's give up on Garoppolo so fast or are they. Maybe they are making smoke screens and have someone else in mind to get them over the hump once again. And at 12 they wouldn't be in line to get their guy. By essentially trading up to the #3 spot that is like the pick to pick anyone in the draft other then T. Lawrence, or the kid our of BYU (you go Jets waste another pick). They have set themselves up to get Jimmy G. a major weapon on the outside in any of the three WR's they like, or pick K. Pitts TE out of Florida which would be a major weapon in their offense and it would give the 49ers two major TE threats to push the ball down the field in Pitts and Kittle (that would be a scary duo). So why is everyone saying the 49er's are going to pick a QB when they already have a proven one at the helm if he can stay healthy. This reminds me of the movie the Draft Day where the Browns had their guy and he was worried about getting traded or let go....(Pitts No Matter What). If that happened that would make the whole first round much more entertaining and stress free because I don't want Pitts going to an AFC East team. Thoughts.....

Doubt they do it, and not the best use of resources...... that said, not my team and dont care if its a loss of better opportunity, but would love to see Pitts join them in a dual TE formation!  Would be fun to watch

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3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

He's an okay athlete. He definitely isn't faster than Allen though, nor is he anywhere near as comfortable moving as Allen is. Alabama reported that Mac ran like a 4.68 or something (Allen was in the 4.7s), but it sounds like all the scouts that were on hand had Mac in the 4.8's, which is still fine. Hell, Jameis was barely under a 5.0 and he still hurt defenses with his legs all the time. You don't have to be fast to be an effective runner at the QB position; it's just that read options will likely be a part of the offense under any of the other 1st round QBs, whereas running will be an absolute last resort for Mac.

Seems pretty likely that Jamarr Chase will also be going top 5 after not playing at all this year. It's not Lance's fault his school didn't have a season.

I love what I see of Lance so far. I didn’t watch him play in college but just in reading up on all of the analysts. I think that his experience under center, which is significantly higher than any of the QBs, might be a factor. 

 

 

Edited by YoloinOhio
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15 hours ago, DJB said:

Fields.

 

At no point at all have i ever believed the Mac Jones talk. You simply don't trade that draft capital for the concensus 4th rated QB. 

 

Consensus of whom?

 

The same people that had Allen rated as the 4th QB in 2018?

Just now, YoloinOhio said:

I love what I see of Lance so far. I think that his experience under center, which is significantly higher than any of the QBs, might be a factor. 

 

 

 

I think the most likely "shock" of the draft will be the Jets taking Lance #2. Based solely on the notion that crazy things happen every draft, and the Jets have been influenced by watching Josh Allen develop into a better QB than their recent "cant miss" blue chip prospect.

 

I think Wilson is Gabbert/Bortles/Trubisky fools gold.

 

JMO.

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I think that shanahan runs a very qb friendly offense and all of these QBs will fit well in their own ways. Just depends who he thinks gives him the best chance to win a SB.

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Consensus of whom?

 

The same people that had Allen rated as the 4th QB in 2018?

 

I think the most likely "shock" of the draft will be the Jets taking Lance #2. Based solely on the notion that crazy things happen every draft, and the Jets have been influenced by watching Josh Allen develop into a better QB than their recent "cant miss" blue chip prospect.

 

I think Wilson is Gabbert/Bortles/Trubisky fools gold.

 

JMO.

This is why the Niners would use a smokescreen (if they are). There is always a chance their guy could go before 3. They don’t want the Jets sitting around thinking “hmmm Kyle really likes lance/fields ... they are considered really smart... we are going to be running the same offense... maybe we should go back and reconsider.” If they think it’s Jones for whatever reason, which some media seem to be pushing, they might feel more comfortable in their evaluation of Wilson that they aren’t taking one of the other guys either. 

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55 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

The thing about this is, Mac Jones isn't the most accurate QB in the class.

Who is? The numbers suggest it's Jones. His ypa and adjusted ypa are off the charts too. Granted, I know he played for Alabama, but it's not as if Fields' didn't play for a similarly stacked program. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mac-jones-1.html

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/justin-fields-2.html 

 

Don't get me wrong -- I have no love for Mac Jones and don't really care who the Niners take. That said, I suspect it'll be Jones a) because most of the clued-in people think they will and b) because I think NFL people have a very different opinion of his readiness to do well in the NFL than people who focus on his 40 time. I may well be wrong; perhaps Shanahan doesn't buy the talk that Fields' floor is low. But I always come back to the fact that Shanahan has to win this season. If he goes 6-10 (let's assume JG has some injuries and Fields has to play), his job will be highly endangered -- he'll have had 4 losing seasons in 5 years and an overall record of 35-45. Just about every NFL coach gets fired at that point.  Anyway, we'll find out in less than two weeks.

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14 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Do you think a real friend is going around on radio and giving away his buddy’s draft picks?

What does it matter?  The first two picks are set. There is no reason to blow smoke at 3...

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12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Consensus of whom?

 

The same people that had Allen rated as the 4th QB in 2018?

 

I think the most likely "shock" of the draft will be the Jets taking Lance #2. Based solely on the notion that crazy things happen every draft, and the Jets have been influenced by watching Josh Allen develop into a better QB than their recent "cant miss" blue chip prospect.

 

I think Wilson is Gabbert/Bortles/Trubisky fools gold.

 

JMO.

I really hope they take Wilson as he seems like he could be the most flash in the pan of the bunch. But he could also be really good. He will have a better surrounding cast than Darnold, that is for sure. 

He’s just so punchable 😄

 

 

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8 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I really hope they take Wilson as he seems like he could be the most flash in the pan of the bunch. But he could also be really good. He will have a better surrounding cast than Darnold, that is for sure. 

He’s just so punchable 😄

 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, mannc said:

Read his post.  He acknowledges that Shanahan did not tell Simms who he’s drafting.

They are not taking Lance.  That would be totally reckless.

 

 

I was responding to another poster that mentioned him.

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34 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I really hope they take Wilson as he seems like he could be the most flash in the pan of the bunch. But he could also be really good. He will have a better surrounding cast than Darnold, that is for sure. 

 

He’s just so punchable 😄

 

 

Bold is so effin true. I just can't see him coming in and leading an NFL locker room.

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49 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Who is? The numbers suggest it's Jones. His ypa and adjusted ypa are off the charts too. Granted, I know he played for Alabama, but it's not as if Fields' didn't play for a similarly stacked program. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mac-jones-1.html

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/justin-fields-2.html 

 

Don't get me wrong -- I have no love for Mac Jones and don't really care who the Niners take. That said, I suspect it'll be Jones a) because most of the clued-in people think they will and b) because I think NFL people have a very different opinion of his readiness to do well in the NFL than people who focus on his 40 time. I may well be wrong; perhaps Shanahan doesn't buy the talk that Fields' floor is low. But I always come back to the fact that Shanahan has to win this season. If he goes 6-10 (let's assume JG has some injuries and Fields has to play), his job will be highly endangered -- he'll have had 4 losing seasons in 5 years and an overall record of 35-45. Just about every NFL coach gets fired at that point.  Anyway, we'll find out in less than two weeks.

I think Fields is pretty comfortably the most accurate QB in this draft. Fields had a good support cast no doubt, but nobody has anything close to what Alabama has. I know others like Benjamin Solak and PFF do more in-depth charting that came to the same conclusion (Fields being #1 in terms of accuracy), but in my personal charting of the QBs, Fields threw a perfectly placed or nearly perfectly placed ball on 53% of his passes and was accurate on 80%. Mac was at 46% and 69% respectively, which is currently 4th or 5th in the class out of the 6 that I've charted so far.

57 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I love what I see of Lance so far. I didn’t watch him play in college but just in reading up on all of the analysts. I think that his experience under center, which is significantly higher than any of the QBs, might be a factor. 

 

 

Lance is a guy that those that liked Josh Allen as a prospect should love. Those that didn't like Allen probably won't like Lance either. He's a better decision maker and runner than Allen was in college but very similar otherwise, accuracy questions and all.

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