Can someone explain QBR & Allen's 75.2% QBR vs. SF???

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. For one, you could have dialed up 100 pass plays a game for Tyrod, he'd still have run around in circles behind the line of scrimmage cradling the football like his newborn child and refusing to let it go. 

LOL - would of looked like Beasley and Mongo - putting him to sleep.

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They did.... and yet this crew is STILL better than last year's MNF clown show. It might be the best MNF crew since Tirico and Gruden. Which doesn't say a lot. 

 

Totally agree - I did not mind the few mistakes.  Not a bad crew - although I think Griese adds very little - I really like Riddick and Levy.

[Nick the Greek]

4 hours ago, artmalibu said:

 

Josh fumbled an Dion recovered it.  Maybe they mixed that up.

 

The announcers had a few mixups too, called Matt- Mike, Brandon- Jeff and said the Bills started in good field position when they started at their own 10.  

I think they referred to Cole as Vic Beasley as well 😂

[MJS]

Wow. I guess you should be coaching the team? Is that what you are trying to say? You should probably be GM too, I reckon. Maybe owner as well?

[Billsfan1972]

10 minutes ago, MJS said:

Wow. I guess you should be coaching the team? Is that what you are trying to say? You should probably be GM too, I reckon. Maybe owner as well?

So again we have many tellING me that there is ABSOLUTELY no scenario or way where Allen could not have done better in 2018/19 because the coaching and planning was so brilliant that it was mapped out to begin opening day 2020 vs. the Jets.

 

I didn't know the coaching was that good?????😉

 

Okay you're right Daboll was always a genius and McD too.

 

My only defense is I can say McD named Peterman his starting QB vs. SD in 2017 and the starter in 2018 (and no 300 yard games for 3 years), so excuse me if I am skeptical of his eye for talent at QB.😜 

Edited December 8, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[Rk_Bills86]

I would like to chime in on the Daboll system stuff. Let's get a few things out of the way:

 

- It's not an easy system

- It takes 1) time to learn and 2) time to take advantage of it

- As players (mainly young ones) get used to NFL level/concepts,  Daboll's system thrives in setting up players to succeed 

 

@Billsfan1972 You should know that throwing for 300 yards doesn't mean jack - it's a poor argument - and a terrible hill to die on. You would be better off arguing that the offense felt anemic prior to this season... But... Just to kind of hammer the point that 300 yds passing is a terrible metric to care about:

 

- Man those Chargers and Bengals sure are killing it with all those 300+ yard passing games

- I will give a less facetious retort ... in 2018 teams that threw for 300+ yards won less than 50% of the time while in 2019 teams throwing for 300+ yards won 52% of the time. Passing Yards is not a metric to measure a teams success NOR is it a metric to measure a QBs skills and abilities (Case in point: Jameis Winston)

- McD had TT as his QB with K. Benjamin and Zay Jones as his top 2 WRs for the first 16 games.... and MADE the playoffs (I concede it took a literal miracle in a game we did not play in to get in - but we still got there) - no one was going to throw for 300 yards on our team that year.

- Year two for McD ..... our starting QB was supposed to be Derek Anderson (yeah that screams 300 yards) and a rookie JA with the top two WRs being..... Foster and Zay Jones.... I can not in all honesty tell you that our combo of top WRs in 2018 was any better than the Jets this year. To expand on this point - the Jets this year with what I would say is a comparable WR core to our 2018 group has a season high of 257 passing yards.... So we can remove another 16 games from your count

 

So when you really look at it, McD and Daboll and JA took 17 games to have a 300 yard passing game. Josh Allen, a Project QB, who was always going to time to bring along, who was by no means a polished product, learning not only a complicated system, but to read NFL defenses, and then have to combine both of those knowledge pools to be effective. The Bills had good WR's last year with some additional help/weapons and along with basic improvement, JA's stats improved. They went out and got him even more help and along with his drive to succeed, a better understanding of the game and scheme, Allen is going bonkers.

 

Dabolls system didn't hold Allen back in 2018 and 2019 - Allen's lack of football knowledge at the NFL level on both sides of the ball along with mechanical deficiencies and a lack of or limited weapons hamstrung his progression. The 2020 Bills offense success is not and can not be 100% contributed to a single aspect but you can look at the following factors:

 

- The Bills have weapons on Offense at every position

- The Diggs acquisition broke the flood gates, but Brown and Beasley with another year together, and what appears to be a steal in the Rookie Davis have all be evident.

- JA is driven to improve his mechanics and skillset (ignoring his improved footwork - his timing, placement, and touch are all leaps and bounds better)

- JA is now in year 3 of Daboll's system and the training wheels are off.

- Daboll's system is complex but designed to force the D to show their hand (initially)

- JA's ability to understand and take advantage of the above statement has been the biggest factor of success

 

I also want to bring up that everyone was giving Allen crap for regressing for about 4 games.... Except he had a separate shoulder on his non-throwing arm.... The only commentator that even weighed in on this was Hasselbeck, who said he sustained a similar injury and it effected his throwing for 5 weeks (which lines up Allen's performances)

 

[MJS]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So again we have many tellING me that there is ABSOLUTELY no scenario or way where Allen could not have done better in 2018/19 because the coaching and planning was so brilliant that it was mapped out to begin opening day 2020 vs. the Jets.

 

I didn't know the coaching was that good?????😉

 

Okay you're right Daboll was always a genius and McD too.

 

My only defense is I can say McD named Peterman his starting QB vs. SD in 2017 and the starter in 2018, so excuse me if I am skeptical of his eye for talent at QB.😜 

No. I don't excuse you. Now go root for the Pats. You would fit in well with their arrogant fan base.

[prissythecat]

23 minutes ago, Rk_Bills86 said:

I would like to chime in on the Daboll system stuff. Let's get a few things out of the way:

 

- It's not an easy system

- It takes 1) time to learn and 2) time to take advantage of it

- As players (mainly young ones) get used to NFL level/concepts,  Daboll's system thrives in setting up players to succeed 

 

@Billsfan1972 You should know that throwing for 300 yards doesn't mean jack - it's a poor argument - and a terrible hill to die on. You would be better off arguing that the offense felt anemic prior to this season... But... Just to kind of hammer the point that 300 yds passing is a terrible metric to care about:

 

- Man those Chargers and Bengals sure are killing it with all those 300+ yard passing games

- I will give a less facetious retort ... in 2018 teams that threw for 300+ yards won less than 50% of the time while in 2019 teams throwing for 300+ yards won 52% of the time. Passing Yards is not a metric to measure a teams success NOR is it a metric to measure a QBs skills and abilities (Case in point: Jameis Winston)

- McD had TT as his QB with K. Benjamin and Zay Jones as his top 2 WRs for the first 16 games.... and MADE the playoffs (I concede it took a literal miracle in a game we did not play in to get in - but we still got there) - no one was going to throw for 300 yards on our team that year.

- Year two for McD ..... our starting QB was supposed to be Derek Anderson (yeah that screams 300 yards) and a rookie JA with the top two WRs being..... Foster and Zay Jones.... I can not in all honesty tell you that our combo of top WRs in 2018 was any better than the Jets this year. To expand on this point - the Jets this year with what I would say is a comparable WR core to our 2018 group has a season high of 257 passing yards.... So we can remove another 16 games from your count

 

So when you really look at it, McD and Daboll and JA took 17 games to have a 300 yard passing game. Josh Allen, a Project QB, who was always going to time to bring along, who was by no means a polished product, learning not only a complicated system, but to read NFL defenses, and then have to combine both of those knowledge pools to be effective. The Bills had good WR's last year with some additional help/weapons and along with basic improvement, JA's stats improved. They went out and got him even more help and along with his drive to succeed, a better understanding of the game and scheme, Allen is going bonkers.

 

Dabolls system didn't hold Allen back in 2018 and 2019 - Allen's lack of football knowledge at the NFL level on both sides of the ball along with mechanical deficiencies and a lack of or limited weapons hamstrung his progression. The 2020 Bills offense success is not and can not be 100% contributed to a single aspect but you can look at the following factors:

 

- The Bills have weapons on Offense at every position

- The Diggs acquisition broke the flood gates, but Brown and Beasley with another year together, and what appears to be a steal in the Rookie Davis have all be evident.

- JA is driven to improve his mechanics and skillset (ignoring his improved footwork - his timing, placement, and touch are all leaps and bounds better)

- JA is now in year 3 of Daboll's system and the training wheels are off.

- Daboll's system is complex but designed to force the D to show their hand (initially)

- JA's ability to understand and take advantage of the above statement has been the biggest factor of success

 

I also want to bring up that everyone was giving Allen crap for regressing for about 4 games.... Except he had a separate shoulder on his non-throwing arm.... The only commentator that even weighed in on this was Hasselbeck, who said he sustained a similar injury and it effected his throwing for 5 weeks (which lines up Allen's performances)

 

 

Really nice post.     But am sure the OP won't listen and will still keep spouting nonsense.

[r00tabaga]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think there is confusion on the fumble. Josh had 1 fumble, on the sack. Dawkins recovered. The fumble inside the 5 went down on Moss. 

Officially only one fumble..... the Moss play, credited to Allen

 

 the other play was overruled... no fumble

 👍 

[Rochesterfan]

32 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So again we have many tellING me that there is ABSOLUTELY no scenario or way where Allen could not have done better in 2018/19 because the coaching and planning was so brilliant that it was mapped out to begin opening day 2020 vs. the Jets.

 

I didn't know the coaching was that good?????😉

 

Okay you're right Daboll was always a genius and McD too.

 

My only defense is I can say McD named Peterman his starting QB vs. SD in 2017 and the starter in 2018 (and no 300 yard games for 3 years), so excuse me if I am skeptical of his eye for talent at QB.😜 

 

Because you are consistently wrong and show it with your big argument continuing to be about useless 300 yard games.

 

I am skeptical of your football knowledge, but oh well.

[MJS]

300 yards is not the meaningful threshold. The real number is like 200 to 220. Less than that and yes, you are limiting your team's ability to win.

 

But I highly doubt that getting over 300 yards is equated with more winning than, say 250 yards.

2 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

Because you are consistently wrong and show it with your big argument continuing to be about useless 300 yard games.

 

I am skeptical of your football knowledge, but oh well.

Seriously. Nick Mullens threw for 300 yards against us. He must be super awesome.

 

Oh, and also two INT's, but who's counting?

[Billsfan1972]

2 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Because you are consistently wrong and show it with your big argument continuing to be about useless 300 yard games.

 

I am skeptical of your football knowledge, but oh well.

How about ranked 30th, 29th & 24th in Offense the past 3 years?  Is that only something TSW fans are proud of & okay with?

 

300 does matter.....  Again when both QB's throw for 300, usually pretty important that the winning team's QB di that.....  

 

If you want to argue that it is not important when only the losin g QB threw for 300, maybe there is an argument.

[Rochesterfan]

2 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

How about ranked 30th, 29th & 24th in Offense the past 3 years?  Is that only something TSW fans are proud of & okay with?

 

300 does matter.....  Again when both QB's throw for 300, usually pretty important that the winning team's QB di that.....  

 

If you want to argue that it is not important when only the losin g QB threw for 300, maybe there is an argument.

 

It is never important - it is a useless stat.  Teams win all the time with under 300 yard passing and teams lose with over 300 yards - the percentage is right around 50% - meaning it is useless.

 

Yes the offense was poorly ranked and that has been addressed - the Bills were a defense oriented team and lacked talent on Offense.  The coaching did not hold them back - the lack of talent held them back.  
 

The difference was things like completion percentage - the Bills could not keep drives going because of the lack of receiver talent.  First downs lead to more drives and more plays and therefore more throws.  The argument that the offense was held back by coaching is just wrong - it was lack of talent and lack of experience.

[Rk_Bills86]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

How about ranked 30th, 29th & 24th in Offense the past 3 years?  Is that only something TSW fans are proud of & okay with?

 

300 does matter.....  Again when both QB's throw for 300, usually pretty important that the winning team's QB di that.....  

 

If you want to argue that it is not important when only the losin g QB threw for 300, maybe there is an argument.

 

I'll say it again - Passing for 300 yards is NOT a valid singular end-all metric for measuring a QB - Just like wins are NOT a valid singular end-all metric for measuring a QB.

 

Your first line of our O - Ranking  IS however valid but lacks context and content. The fact that you refuse to engage in meaningful discussion surrounding that context honestly shows you don't have enough knowledge on the last four seasons to be debate the subject. Your arguments are the same old tripe that has fans and some franchises stuck in the past. Analytics are a thing, step up your arguments with stats backed by large sample sizes.

 

And just to note - the Offense improved each year that Daboll has been here.... interesting. 

[MJS]

28 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

How about ranked 30th, 29th & 24th in Offense the past 3 years?  Is that only something TSW fans are proud of & okay with?

 

300 does matter.....  Again when both QB's throw for 300, usually pretty important that the winning team's QB di that.....  

 

If you want to argue that it is not important when only the losin g QB threw for 300, maybe there is an argument.

Nobody claimed the offense was good. We all just realized that it takes some time to add talent and coach up young guys like Allen. Meanwhile, we went to the playoffs two out of three years and fixed the cap.

 

If you want to condemn the coaches and GM for offensive failures the past couple of seasons, go right ahead. It just is not a fair or logical way to look at it. The team was rebuilding. There was huge turnover. We had a young, extremely raw QB prospect.

 

And other NFL coaches and GM's give ours a ton of credit and praise. And Flores for the Dolphins has openly said that he is using McDermott and Beane as an example and template for fixing the Dolphins.

[Rochesterfan]

41 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

How about ranked 30th, 29th & 24th in Offense the past 3 years?  Is that only something TSW fans are proud of & okay with?

 

300 does matter.....  Again when both QB's throw for 300, usually pretty important that the winning team's QB di that.....  

 

If you want to argue that it is not important when only the losin g QB threw for 300, maybe there is an argument.

 

So last year just the Bills - won 2 games Miami and Dallas (both handily) and in neither game did we throw for 300 yards and the opponent threw for well over 300 yards even approaching 400.  
 

Did we not get the win?  Did Miami or Dallas get some hidden unlocked victory point for throwing for 300 yards?

 

I do not get your point or your obsession with that value - it is just a number - it does not mean the coaching is holding teams back by not getting there - it does not show the coaching is aggressive if you get there.  It just shows nothing.

 

Matt Stafford and Matt Ryan are the kings of meaningless 300 yard games and they show exactly why is is a stupid stat.

 

In any case - I will reiterate- as the talent got better the offense got better, the completion percentage went up, more drives were extended, that allows more plays and more completions and most importantly more scores.

 

As the talent increased on offense - it allows the coaching staff to look at advanced metrics and decide - I can go for 4th down here because the talent on my offense is better.  It allows all sorts of different and expanded choices that the team could not make and hope to succeed early on.

 

This coaching staff understood what they had and what they lacked.  They put everything and more on Josh’s plate early.  At few points did they harness him and try to limit his throws, but they tried to teach him Hero ball was not the only way.  They did not hold him back - they expanded his horizons and pushed him to get better and better and also to understand that others are there to help.

 

Was it perfect - Heck No!  It was a solid plan though and it got us here as talent and experience expanded.

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

LOL - would of looked like Beasley and Mongo - putting him to sleep.

 

 

Totally agree - I did not mind the few mistakes.  Not a bad crew - although I think Griese adds very little - I really like Riddick and Levy.

Griese is growing on me.

One telling comment: he talked about how the city of a Buffalo has embraced Josh in a way that means a lot to a young QB. Those of us who watched him in Denver understood all too well what he meant—he really played pretty well here, but he was

never going to win over the post-Elway fan base. Plus he came off as kind of standoffish and thin skinned. I never thought he’d succeed in broadcasting because of those traits, but I think he’s finally grown into the role. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

300 yards means something 

 

it always has.   
 

for years I said we need a QB to reach the 300 yard plateau.  From EJ though Tyrod 

 

some people just got to complacent and just took the W. 
 

now we are seeing the breaking of 2 decades old records and SB dreams are a reality!!!!

[Jpsredemption]

Remember when people called him “Scam Newton”? What a joke that looks like. 

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Fumble gets credited to the QB as the last one to control the ball. QBR gives credit for rushing yards. Josh only had one positive rush all night. 
After the Hyde pick, I thought we would see a QB draw on first down. 

 

I thought that play was there to be had on the 4th down early in the game where he tried to hit Smith in the back of the endzone...Allen had the angle to make it to the endzone I believe...

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, matter2003 said:

 

I thought that play was there to be had on the 4th down early in the game where he tried to hit Smith in the back of the endzone...Allen had the angle to make it to the endzone I believe...

Yeah i agree but if Smith just stops running its an easy TD.  

[Billsfan1972]

4 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

300 yards means something 

 

it always has.   
 

for years I said we need a QB to reach the 300 yard plateau.  From EJ though Tyrod 

 

some people just got to complacent and just took the W. 
 

now we are seeing the breaking of 2 decades old records and SB dreams are a reality!!!!

It's just no fun throwing for 300 vs. knowing each and every game (unless McD get's scared of the opponent i.e. NE or Pitt or the elements) that 300 is in play vs. 2017-19, just ask the experts here.....

 

Most telling backhanded comment yesterday was the crew saying Beane & McD came to the realization you can't win averaging <20/game....😋

 

[H2o]

23 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

375, 4 TD's no picks, 80% completions and 139.1% Rating I get.

 

Also somehow on ESPN they claimed he fumbled not Moss.

 

I'd love to see all those posts I defended him in 2018 & 2019, blaming it on Daboll and the play calling holding him back and now we see how being aggressive and paying playmakers actually works in the NFL..... Who would have thought that????😜😉

This right here alone (this week's example anyway) proves that QBR is nothing but horse crap. Lamar Jackson, who was 12/17 for 107 yds with 2 TD 1INT, had a higher rating than Josh this week. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=401220151

 

[BruceVilanch]

21 hours ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Evabody funny.  Now they funny too.

I had one bourbon, one scotch, and one beer after the game.

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

This right here alone (this week's example anyway) proves that QBR is nothing but horse crap. Lamar Jackson, who was 12/17 for 107 yds with 2 TD 1INT, had a higher rating than Josh this week. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=401220151

 

With lower yards, % completions, avg/attempt an Int & a fumble (not lost).

 

Pretty much says that QBR maybe right up there with PFF's rating system in making no sense whatsoever....   

Edited December 9, 2020 by Billsfan1972

[Billy Claude]

56 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

With lower yards, % completions, avg/attempt an Int & a fumble (not lost).  

 

Not defending it, but QBR is the only rating system that includes QB runs so that undoubtedly contributed to Jackson's better than expected numbers.