Are our WRs not getting separation? Or is it Allen?

[Rubes]

One trend I've noticed in the last 3-4 games is that Allen has a huge amount of time in the pocket, but is just not pulling the trigger—at least not until very late. I can't quite figure out if it's Allen not trusting his receivers, or if the receivers just aren't getting separation. It seems incredibly unlikely that it's the latter, given the quality of our WRs and what we saw in the first few weeks. Especially this last game, against a NE**** team that was down their best CB and really had sub-par DBs.

 

It sure seemed like the first 4 games Josh was getting rid of it early, and trusting his WRs to make the catch even in tight windows. Is he just not doing it as much now? Or are our WRs just not getting the separation they were getting earlier in the season? Just baffling to me.

 

[Virgil]

It's the safety coverage over top.  They may have a step, but are also running towards coverage.  We have no problem getting open in short yardage, but it's not the game we want to play. 

[quinnearlysghost88]

Teams have figured out how to gameplay for us. They’re deploying more DBs. Working out of dime and nickel. They’re giving us underneath stuff. We were so pass centric for first couple of weeks. We need to integrate more balance. Yesterday was a good sign to the rest of the league that we will run effectively if you try to play small and defend the pass. 

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

It's the safety coverage over top.  They may have a step, but are also running towards coverage.  We have no problem getting open in short yardage, but it's not the game we want to play. 

 

Allen seemed to use that to good effect in the Jets game, but not so much in others.

 

Is this also more of a shift in defenses from man to zone? Seems like our WRs can take advantage of that.

 

[Putin]

2 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Teams have figured out how to gameplay for us. They’re deploying more DBs. Working out of dime and nickel. They’re giving us underneath stuff. We were so pass centric for first couple of weeks. We need to integrate more balance. Yesterday was a good sign to the rest of the league that we will run effectively if you try to play small and defend the pass. 

This ^^^^ 

[2003Contenders]

Defenses have adjusted. The early book on Allen was to stack the box, keep him in the pocket and force him to be a QB. When he rose to the challenge in those first 4 games, the defenses instead have tried to play a lot of 2-deep and double-cover Diggs. Having John Brown banged up has also hurt the passing game and the ability to take shots downfield. In review of the Chiefs and Jets games, there really was nowhere for Josh to go with the ball. It will be interesting to review the All-22 from yesterday's game -- as you said, there were numerous occasions where Josh had plenty of time and still could not locate an open receiver. And that was with a banged up NE secondary.

 

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Teams have figured out how to gameplay for us. They’re deploying more DBs. Working out of dime and nickel. They’re giving us underneath stuff. We were so pass centric for first couple of weeks. We need to integrate more balance. Yesterday was a good sign to the rest of the league that we will run effectively if you try to play small and defend the pass. 

 

I agree, and I think everyone noticed when the Pats**** came out with 7 DBs. I was hoping we would take advantage of that and run the ball down their throats, and it was actually nice to see it happen.

 

I still just wonder if Josh is having issues trusting the WRs to make the catch. I mean, some of the throws earlier in the year were into crazy tight windows.

 

[Success]

I mean, it's a little tough to gauge from yesterday.  The conditions were just bad, for both QB's.  

 

I thought Allen made good decisions yesterday, all things considered.  If you look at most of the passes on both sides, neither QB was trying to thread any needles. They mainly threw it when guys were pretty open.

 

[Dr.Sack]

It’s a combination of factors including John Brown out, lack of TE’s as a relief valve in between the hash marks, lack of execution by the route runners, drops, and a reluctance by Allen to put the ball in harms way as defenses are basically forcing us to play underneath their zone. 

[billsfan89]

The Jets and Titans gave the Bills a soft zone to take away the deep stuff. Against the Titans Josh got impatient and took shots deep and it didn't work out. Josh carved up the Jets and easily took what they gave him, but he just struggled in the red zone. Against the Chiefs Josh got blitzed in bad weather and it wasn't pretty. Against the Pats the running attack was cooking so they just stuck with that. 

 

Overall I don't think Josh or the WR's are a problem. Josh just needs to adjust his game to what the defense is giving him and things will pan out.

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Allen seemed to use that to good effect in the Jets game, but not so much in others.

 

Is this also more of a shift in defenses from man to zone? Seems like our WRs can take advantage of that.

 

I think it's happening around the league.  Teams are playing more zone to keep the play in front of them, especially if the QB can run.   Playing man against teams like the Bills is deadly, because you get beat once in a while, and you give Allen some big opportunities to run.  Against the zone, if you want anything that is at least a little bit downfield, you need the whole pass pattern to play out before you can throw.   Receivers have to run their routes so that the zone reshapes itself in response to threats, and then receivers have to run to the openings created in the zone by the reshaping.   It takes time.   

 

Allen seemed to do an excellent job waiting for the opportunities to arise.   

 

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

I think it's happening around the league.  Teams are playing more zone to keep the play in front of them, especially if the QB can run.   Playing man against teams like the Bills is deadly, because you get beat once in a while, and you give Allen some big opportunities to run.  Against the zone, if you want anything that is at least a little bit downfield, you need the whole pass pattern to play out before you can throw.   Receivers have to run their routes so that the zone reshapes itself in response to threats, and then receivers have to run to the openings created in the zone by the reshaping.   It takes time.   

 

Allen seemed to do an excellent job waiting for the opportunities to arise.   

 

 

That's a nice explanation, thanks.

 

[Clemfield2622]

I think it is a combination of things. Teams are taking the deep stuff away, while also getting good pressure.

 

Some teams are blitzing, but a lot are getting good pressure with 4. Particularly up the middle, particularly over Brian Winters. Allen is being forced off his spot, and often rolling out. 

 

If we get Morse and Ford back, with Feliciano in, i think the pass blocking will come up a level and give Josh more time in the pocket to feel comfortable again. 

[BITE ME]

John Brown injury is the problem.  When your number 2 receiver has 1 catch in the last 6 games you are going to struggle.

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, Clemfield2622 said:

I think it is a combination of things. Teams are taking the deep stuff away, while also getting good pressure.

 

Some teams are blitzing, but a lot are getting good pressure with 4. Particularly up the middle, particularly over Brian Winters. Allen is being forced off his spot, and often rolling out. 

 

If we get Morse and Ford back, with Feliciano in, i think the pass blocking will come up a level and give Josh more time in the pocket to feel comfortable again. 

 

I didn't get the sense, at least yesterday, that Josh was getting tremendous pressure in the pocket. He was sitting back there a lot, waiting, waiting, waiting, then finally pulling the trigger.

 

[quinnearlysghost88]

5 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

I agree, and I think everyone noticed when the Pats**** came out with 7 DBs. I was hoping we would take advantage of that and run the ball down their throats, and it was actually nice to see it happen.

 

I still just wonder if Josh is having issues trusting the WRs to make the catch. I mean, some of the throws earlier in the year were into crazy tight windows.

 

The consequence of running more is Josh gets fewer game reps, so he might be a little rusty. Also Davis dropped a TD, which could’ve boosted his stats a little. No TD passes in two games doesn’t look great. 

[TBBills]

Allen hasn't been throwing the ball like he was in the first 4 weeks. He isn't bad but he is also clearly needs to relax and get back to his easy flow in the first 4 weeks. 

 

If you watch first 4 weeks he was like a leaf in the wind with his motion, his motion has been more tense as of late and it changed the way his passes come out.

Edited November 2, 2020 by TBBills

[Rubes]

1 minute ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

The consequence of running more is Josh gets fewer game reps, so he might be a little rusty. Also Davis dropped a TD, which could’ve boosted his stats a little. No TD passes in two games doesn’t look great. 

 

Actually, I think the main consequence is that drives take longer, which means fewer drives per game and fewer opportunities for TDs.

 

A little like our strategy against KC and the Giants strategy against the Bills in SBXXV, keeping pass-happy teams running the ball helps keep the scoring low and the game tighter.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Let's see what happens with a healthy Brown and Diggs

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

Defenses have adjusted. The early book on Allen was to stack the box, keep him in the pocket and force him to be a QB. When he rose to the challenge in those first 4 games, the defenses instead have tried to play a lot of 2-deep and double-cover Diggs. Having John Brown banged up has also hurt the passing game and the ability to take shots downfield. In review of the Chiefs and Jets games, there really was nowhere for Josh to go with the ball. It will be interesting to review the All-22 from yesterday's game -- as you said, there were numerous occasions where Josh had plenty of time and still could not locate an open receiver. And that was with a banged up NE secondary.

 

 

But this was against NE and Belichick.  I'll bet even after looking at the All-22 you may think that was simple, Allen just didn't read it correctly, he waited too long.  But knowing it was NE, there likely were things going on that were better disguised than when facing other teams and while viewing the tape may not be obvious, to Allens eyes, thinks may have looked different at least on some drop backs.