JGMcD2 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) I've seen a lot of debate about how McBeane favor spending resources on defense rather than offense. It piqued my curiosity so I decided to do a little study. I went back through our drafts in two different ways - Beane only (2018 and beyond) and McBeane (2017 and beyond) because there are typically arguments that McDermott conducted the first draft in 2017 and therefore Beane can't be credited with the results. Which is more than fair, but I wanted to account for both his arrival as well as the arrival of the brain trust known as McBeane. This first chart here represents all of our draft picks under McDermott (2017) and Beane (2018 and beyond). It includes both Epenesa and Moss. The players highlighted in yellow are those that are no longer with the Bills organization. This image here is a breakdown of how we've spent our draft picks. One accounts for all picks from 2017 - 2020 (McBeane) and another solely Beane's decisions. As you can see, in both instances we have made an equal number of picks offensively and defensively. Which I found to be interesting, but also misleading, as the majority of late round draft picks don't make a roster, let alone a significant impact. Why should Austin Proehl work in favor of the argument that McBeane have spent enough resources towards improving the offense? He really shouldn't. I made the determination that we should filter it based on how we spend our draft capital in the first three rounds, marked in both 'BEANE DRAFT' and 'MCDERMOTT + BEANE' as 'OFFENSE(1-3)' and 'DEFENSE(1-3)'. As you can see, in both instances the Bills have actually invested more draft capital into offensive selections in Rounds 1-3 rather than defensive selections. I found this quite interesting, but I know there will be arguments that we've used draft capital to trade up for specific players, so it's not an accurate depiction of what we've actually invested in offense and defense via the draft. So I went back through all of our trades that we used draft picks to MOVE UP in the draft to acquire a player of interest. We used a 2nd (44) and 3rd (91) to move up in order to draft Zay Jones (WR) in the 2nd (37) in 2017. We used a 3rd (75), 5th (149) and 5th (156) in order to draft Dion Dawkins (OT) in the 2nd (63) in 2017. We used a 1st (22) and 3rd (65) in order to draft Tremaine Edmunds (LB) in the 1st (16) in 2018. We used a 1st (12), 2nd (53) and 2nd (56) in order to draft Josh Allen (QB) in the 1st (7) in 2018. We used a 4th (112) and 4th (131) in order to draft Dawson Knox (TE) in the 3rd (96) in 2019. We used a 2nd (40) and 5th (158) in order to draft Cody Ford (OT) in the 2nd (38) in 2019. McBeane has spent 12 additional picks (1st (12), 2nd (53), 2nd (56), 2nd (44), 2nd (40), 3rd (91), 3rd (75),4th (112), 4th (131), 5th (149), 5th (156), 5th (158) ) to trade up for an offensive (7 extra picks in Rounds 1-3) as opposed to only 2 additional picks to move up for a defensive player (1st (22) and 3rd (65)). A lot of draft capital invested into improving the offense since they've come to Buffalo. Overall for those keeping score at home: Offense: 14 picks in rounds 1-3 Defense: 7 picks in rounds 1-3 Free agency also tends to be a big argument... we spend all of our money on defense. The breakdown is done in a similar format to the draft breakdown, one for just Beane and one for McDermott + Beane. The image above shows all signings that the players received more than $1M AAV (This is right in line with the median NFL salary in 2019). Offense wins again... but I don't want to use crappy offensive depth signings to bolster one side of the argument... so I decided to filter all of the signings by players that received an AVV greater than $3M... I felt this was a more significant investment in a player, one that REALLY shows where the money is going and takes depth signings completely out of the equation. Here we see for the first time defense outweigh offense. Under Beane's guidance it's only by 1 signing and McDermott + Beane accounts for Hyde and Poyer in 2017, bringing the total to 12. I'm going to include the figures here in terms of total money spent on each side of the ball since 2017 to paint a more complete picture (this is only for the players with an AVV greater than $3M). I can't include another attachment because I am over my size limit... so I will explain. For the 12 defenders that McBeane have signed since 2017, they have spent $214,550,000 in total money on those players. On the 9 offensive players that they have signed they have spent $168,100,000 on those players. Clearly they've spent more total money on the defense as compared to the offense... but they've signed 3 more defenders... so I thought it was best to find the average $/Player on both offense and defense. Offense: Defense: You can make the argument that they have struggled to build an offense, in a timely manner, especially in comparison to their defense. But I think the narrative needs to die that McBeane heavily favors defense when it comes to FA and the draft, they simply DO NOT! Edited April 25, 2020 by JGMcD2 5 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 The “building of the offense” is now in place. If they still can’t score more than 20pts/game on average after adding singletary, brown, beasley, knox, diggs, kroft, and moss then the problem is with the guy on offense I didn’t name. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ManRaid Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 You're putting in a lot of effort and logic to just be ignored by the doom and gloomers who point to taking "yet another defender" with our "first" pick as proof that McBeane only cares about defense. There's no shaking them from their narratives. Negativity blinders for days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJB Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 One draft tendency is we take productive players regardless of their combine numbers. Singletary, Espenesa , Moss. Which is good because it means they value tape and production over the underwear Olympics. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Thoughtful. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 2 hours ago, JoPoy88 said: The “building of the offense” is now in place. If they still can’t score more than 20pts/game on average after adding singletary, brown, beasley, knox, diggs, kroft, and moss then the problem is with the guy on offense I didn’t name. Or the coordination of the offense. I will not name him either 4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said: I've seen a lot of debate about how McBeane favor spending resources on defense rather than offense. It piqued my curiosity so I decided to do a little study. I went back through our drafts in two different ways - Beane only (2018 and beyond) and McBeane (2017 and beyond) because there are typically arguments that McDermott conducted the first draft in 2017 and therefore Beane can't be credited with the results. Which is more than fair, but I wanted to account for both his arrival as well as the arrival of the brain trust known as McBeane. This first chart here represents all of our draft picks under McDermott (2017) and Beane (2018 and beyond). It includes both Epenesa and Moss. The players highlighted in yellow are those that are no longer with the Bills organization. This image here is a breakdown of how we've spent our draft picks. One accounts for all picks from 2017 - 2020 (McBeane) and another solely Beane's decisions. As you can see, in both instances we have made an equal number of picks offensively and defensively. Which I found to be interesting, but also misleading, as the majority of late round draft picks don't make a roster, let alone a significant impact. Why should Austin Proehl work in favor of the argument that McBeane have spent enough resources towards improving the offense? He really shouldn't. I made the determination that we should filter it based on how we spend our draft capital in the first three rounds, marked in both 'BEANE DRAFT' and 'MCDERMOTT + BEANE' as 'OFFENSE(1-3)' and 'DEFENSE(1-3)'. As you can see, in both instances the Bills have actually invested more draft capital into offensive selections in Rounds 1-3 rather than defensive selections. I found this quite interesting, but I know there will be arguments that we've used draft capital to trade up for specific players, so it's not an accurate depiction of what we've actually invested in offense and defense via the draft. So I went back through all of our trades that we used draft picks to MOVE UP in the draft to acquire a player of interest. We used a 2nd (44) and 3rd (91) to move up in order to draft Zay Jones (WR) in the 2nd (37) in 2017. We used a 3rd (75), 5th (149) and 5th (156) in order to draft Dion Dawkins (OT) in the 2nd (63) in 2017. We used a 1st (22) and 3rd (65) in order to draft Tremaine Edmunds (LB) in the 1st (16) in 2018. We used a 1st (12), 2nd (53) and 2nd (56) in order to draft Josh Allen (QB) in the 1st (7) in 2018. We used a 4th (112) and 4th (131) in order to draft Dawson Knox (TE) in the 3rd (96) in 2019. We used a 2nd (40) and 5th (158) in order to draft Cody Ford (OT) in the 2nd (38) in 2019. McBeane has spent 12 additional picks (1st (12), 2nd (53), 2nd (56), 2nd (44), 2nd (40), 3rd (91), 3rd (75),4th (112), 4th (131), 5th (149), 5th (156), 5th (158) ) to trade up for an offensive (7 extra picks in Rounds 1-3) as opposed to only 2 additional picks to move up for a defensive player (1st (22) and 3rd (65)). A lot of draft capital invested into improving the offense since they've come to Buffalo. Overall for those keeping score at home: Offense: 14 picks in rounds 1-3 Defense: 7 picks in rounds 1-3 Free agency also tends to be a big argument... we spend all of our money on defense. The breakdown is done in a similar format to the draft breakdown, one for just Beane and one for McDermott + Beane. The image above shows all signings that the players received more than $1M AAV (This is right in line with the median NFL salary in 2019). Offense wins again... but I don't want to use crappy offensive depth signings to bolster one side of the argument... so I decided to filter all of the signings by players that received an AVV greater than $3M... I felt this was a more significant investment in a player, one that REALLY shows where the money is going and takes depth signings completely out of the equation. Here we see for the first time defense outweigh offense. Under Beane's guidance it's only by 1 signing and McDermott + Beane accounts for Hyde and Poyer in 2017, bringing the total to 12. I'm going to include the figures here in terms of total money spent on each side of the ball since 2017 to paint a more complete picture (this is only for the players with an AVV greater than $3M). I can't include another attachment because I am over my size limit... so I will explain. For the 12 defenders that McBeane have signed since 2017, they have spent $214,550,000 in total money on those players. On the 9 offensive players that they have signed they have spent $168,100,000 on those players. Clearly they've spent more total money on the defense as compared to the offense... but they've signed 3 more defenders... so I thought it was best to find the average $/Player on both offense and defense. Offense: Defense: You can make the argument that they have struggled to build an offense, in a timely manner, especially in comparison to their defense. But I think the narrative needs to die that McBeane heavily favors defense when it comes to FA and the draft, they simply DO NOT! Thanks for the time and thought you put into this. Great post! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 2 hours ago, JoPoy88 said: The “building of the offense” is now in place. If they still can’t score more than 20pts/game on average after adding singletary, brown, beasley, knox, diggs, kroft, and moss then the problem is with the guy on offense I didn’t name. Im high on Josh Allen, and I think he makes the next required jump this year, but you are correct: Solid OL Playmaking RB duo of Singletary/Moss Upper third of the league WR trio in Diggs/Brown/Beasley Your franchise QB has to be able to score points with that. *Jury is still out on the TE position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) The thing I’ve always thought about a Josh Allen led offense is, at no time in his life before the NFL, did his offenses score a lot of points...same for his own personal stats- he never put up great numbers... Thats why I always felt it was going to be difficult to have a high powered offense with him as the QB...it’s just never been in his nature to be that kind of QB... In addition, I feel with McD as his HC, it hinders Josh as well, because McD doesn’t encourage an explosive offense...Once McD has the slightest of leads, he just wants to get the game over with as soon as possible- he doesn’t go into every game with the mind set of trying to score 30 points, regardless of what the other team is doing... Edited April 25, 2020 by JaCrispy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Wow, that was an insightful analysis. Nice job. It would be interesting to look at their trades as well. They've traded for Kelvin Benjamin and Stefon Diggs now. Both were significant trades aimed at bolstering the offense. Let's hope the Diggs trade turns out better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGMcD2 Posted April 25, 2020 Author Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, MJS said: Wow, that was an insightful analysis. Nice job. It would be interesting to look at their trades as well. They've traded for Kelvin Benjamin and Stefon Diggs now. Both were significant trades aimed at bolstering the offense. Let's hope the Diggs trade turns out better. I did in depth analysis of the trades and where the picks have gone last night when I was writing this main post up! I can post when I’m near my computer. It shows what picks we acquired and subsequently traded away... also shows the result of who the other team drafted. Edited April 25, 2020 by JGMcD2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 1 minute ago, ScottLaw said: These are similarly to my thoughts as well. Not sure why Knox gets pushed into that category as a playmaker or already established good offensive player. He isn't to this point. Love the trio of Beasley, Brown, Diggs. I'd like them to bring in another compliment behind those 3 so fringe NFL guys like McKenzie and Foster are forced off the roster. RBs look solid but not spectacular. Not a great offense but it should be a solid one, the question is how far does that get you in today's NFL? I don't think anyone should expect some massive improvement. I think we'll see a better offense and a better Josh Allen, but I don't expect our offense to be top 5 all of the sudden. Allen just has a long way to go and he'll continue to make improvements, but I don't see him having a breakout year like some fans expect. But if we can get our offense at least to an average place, that's big. I expect an average passing attack and top 10 rushing attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatloaf63 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 4 hours ago, JoPoy88 said: The “building of the offense” is now in place. If they still can’t score more than 20pts/game on average after adding singletary, brown, beasley, knox, diggs, kroft, and moss then the problem is with the guy on offense I didn’t name. Spot on if that Coordinator can’t get his act together, he needs to go? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillyguy1 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 I think as far as team building, this shows that they really value Mcdermott's ability to evaluate talent to fit his defense. That's why they are a little more willing to invest value in offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGMcD2 Posted April 25, 2020 Author Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, phillyguy1 said: I think as far as team building, this shows that they really value Mcdermott's ability to evaluate talent to fit his defense. That's why they are a little more willing to invest value in offense. I think the other thing we need to realize is the plan was never to build up a Super Bowl contender overnight like the Rams did. I’ve posted about this before but it’s an unsustainable model... Beane has been very clear about wanting to have sustained success. It’s always supposed to have been a slow burn. We could’ve opted for the approach... but we would’ve had a 2 year window to be competitive and then we’d be in salary cap h*ll. Think Green Bay Packers or Pittsburgh Steelers... not Los Angeles Rams. Edited April 25, 2020 by JGMcD2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirAndrew Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 5 hours ago, JoPoy88 said: The “building of the offense” is now in place. If they still can’t score more than 20pts/game on average after adding singletary, brown, beasley, knox, diggs, kroft, and moss then the problem is with the guy on offense I didn’t name. Absolutely, this season is on Allen. However, I think our O line is very overrated, and it looks like we’ll roll with the same group. They are very inconsistent, with a few guys that make huge blunders on a regular basis. 1 hour ago, ScottLaw said: These are similarly to my thoughts as well. Not sure why Knox gets pushed into that category as a playmaker or already established good offensive player. He isn't to this point. Love the trio of Beasley, Brown, Diggs. I'd like them to bring in another compliment behind those 3 so fringe NFL guys like McKenzie and Foster are forced off the roster. RBs look solid but not spectacular. Not a great offense but it should be a solid one, the question is how far does that get you in today's NFL? Exactly, how well can a solid offense compete in today’s NFL? We have some really good talent, but it’s not spectacular across the board, and Allen is still a question mark. I’m leery of our O line and TE most of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) Just wanted to say I love how McDermott always stays out of the spotlight during the draft and free agency. He's such a good head football coach and leader. Edited April 25, 2020 by Buffalo_Stampede 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 5 hours ago, JoPoy88 said: The “building of the offense” is now in place. If they still can’t score more than 20pts/game on average after adding singletary, brown, beasley, knox, diggs, kroft, and moss then the problem is with the guy on offense I didn’t name. 3 hours ago, 1ManRaid said: You're putting in a lot of effort and logic to just be ignored by the doom and gloomers who point to taking "yet another defender" with our "first" pick as proof that McBeane only cares about defense. There's no shaking them from their narratives. Negativity blinders for days. These replies are it. ESPECIALLY the first one. If Allen can't get it done with this crew, well...he ain't the guy. Anyone who thinks a WR4 was gonna be the difference are nuts. Anyone who thinks that Dobbins instead of Moss would've made the difference is nuts. They've put a good cast around Allen. It's up to him now. Oh and you just can't -- ABSOLUTELY CANNOT -- please some people, no matter what. Ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 4 hours ago, Meatloaf63 said: Spot on if that Coordinator can’t get his act together, he needs to go? Another favorite scapegoat around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatloaf63 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 1 minute ago, JoPoy88 said: Another favorite scapegoat around here. His play design, play and player selection, and feel for the game are all questionable at times whether you admit it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoPoy88 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Just now, Meatloaf63 said: His play design, play and player selection, and feel for the game are all questionable at times whether you admit it or not. “at times”...which can mean anything from “occasionally” to “frequently.” If Daboll was frequently calling a bad offense then I’d say you have a point. But I don’t see evidence of that. No he does not have a perfect playbook or call games perfectly. But if the offense fails its on the QB now, although I understand some like you will never bring yourselves to admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatloaf63 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 16 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said: “at times”...which can mean anything from “occasionally” to “frequently.” If Daboll was frequently calling a bad offense then I’d say you have a point. But I don’t see evidence of that. No he does not have a perfect playbook or call games perfectly. But if the offense fails its on the QB now, although I understand some like you will never bring yourselves to admit it. From Gugny : “But why was Singletary out of the game vs. Houston? That's still a mystery to everyone. Also a mystery why Gore was in pads and Yeldon was not. There's a difference between not having the right players and not using the players you have properly.” Every game at some point he gets away from what was working. Last year he cost us games with the overuse of Gore. I didn’t say we should get rid off him, I’m saying he still has much to prove as does Allen. I don’t know what games you have been watching or why you can’t admit that. I imagine basic stubbornness to admit you are wrong it’s a typical trait here for people like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 12 hours ago, ScottLaw said: Yea. If Allen really steps up sky’s the limit.... I’d really like one more big playmaker. Go after Julio if the Falcons start out 2-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapeBreton Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 On 4/25/2020 at 9:31 AM, DJB said: One draft tendency is we take productive players regardless of their combine numbers. Singletary, Espenesa , Moss. Which is good because it means they value tape and production over the underwear Olympics. I was going to say this as well, Beane clearly didn’t care one bit about combine numbers this year. None of the picks stand out from a testing perspective, it’s all about onfield production. Even Jake Fromm had an awful combine (both in numbers and drills) but Beane identified that he is a winner with other intangibles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motor26 Posted April 27, 2020 Share Posted April 27, 2020 On 4/25/2020 at 9:23 AM, JaCrispy said: The thing I’ve always thought about a Josh Allen led offense is, at no time in his life before the NFL, did his offenses score a lot of points...same for his own personal stats- he never put up great numbers... Thats why I always felt it was going to be difficult to have a high powered offense with him as the QB...it’s just never been in his nature to be that kind of QB... In addition, I feel with McD as his HC, it hinders Josh as well, because McD doesn’t encourage an explosive offense...Once McD has the slightest of leads, he just wants to get the game over with as soon as possible- he doesn’t go into every game with the mind set of trying to score 30 points, regardless of what the other team is doing... Yupp. McDermott needs to learn to keep his foot on the gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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