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MrSarcasm

Why do we need a WR in the draft?

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You don’t draft a player for only one year. The Bills could use youth at the position.
There is a lot of quality at the position which the Bills should take advantage of.

The Bills offense is still there weakness and they need to improve it wherever they can.

Another offensive playmaker added to the mix would be a good thing.

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8 hours ago, Augie said:

Because Beasley and Brown are about 31 and 30 years old, as I recall. I didn’t look it up, but that’s close and our WR corp is getting up there in age. A young guy to bring along could come in handy in the next year or two. Find quality depth to start developing if its a good fit and value.  One bad hammy and you may need that help sooner than you think. 

 

You have possibly a generationally deep WR class. Why would you NOT want to take advantage of it if the cards fell that way? 

 

.


Augie, you’re the man.  Besides, Isiah is a gadget guy, Roberts is rally a returner, Foster did nothing last year, and Williams, maybe but he was a bit slow although made some nice catches last year.  I’d rather target a possession type WR as we missed out on the TE FA market.  If there for the same reason as Beasley and Brown, our current Edge rushers are over 30 so if there, I’d rather pick an Edge in the 2 Nd and a WR in the 3rd, or bundle a couple of the late picks and move up in those slots for the better position player.

 

Lastly, if there in these two spots, these are expensive experienced players on the second contract so for two high paying positions, you have cheap labor for the next four years.  Agreed on a middle rd pick at RB, and then maybe 1-2 more picks at most.  I’d rather just move up as much as you can and live with four people as we already have a very talented team with some depth.  We’re not in a rebuild.  We want a few quality pieces and make a run at it the next couple of years.  Financially, we have a number of resigning so the next couple of years that are not going to be cheap.

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7 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

Personally I feel 2nd and 3rd rounders should be starters or at least see significant playing time soon or soonish, granted Buffalo has been blessed most recently with not needing to much. Also WR and RBs tend to be over drafted and bust out the easiest.

What do you suggest the bills draft then where they can jump in and be starters right away?

 

 The way I see it the bills have no glaring holes. They will most likely be going bpa in the draft which means a good chance it will be a wr or rb. 

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7 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:


Well, you presented a question, but did not offer your solution as to what positions you think need attention over a WR.  Not saying you don’t have a point, so where would rather allocate those draft picks!

Our lead running back is rated about #20 in the nfl for 2019 in rushing and #44 in receiving. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

There are 3 outstanding RB who will likely go in the late 1st and early 2nd (Dobbins, Swift and Taylor), two that are just a little behind them (E-H and Akers- although Akers has some risk factor), and then 2 guys who should still be available in the 3d, Moss and Dillon.  Our backup RB did not play (and probably didn't dress- I'm finding that hard to check on) in 10 games last year.   This looks like the weak spot. 

 

Beane has said that he wants "touchdown makers", and that implies somebody who has the ball in their hands a lot.  Singletary had TWO TD's last year.  I think it is time to go for a RB-1A and upgrade on Singletary (RB-1B).

 

I also think that Beane tipped his hand in a recent press conference.   ( https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2020/04/nfl-draft-2020-buffalo-bills-gm-brandon-beane-not-ruling-out-trading-up-in-round-2.html)

 

Quote

".......And then secondly, start looking at all the teams in front of us and what their needs are. Let’s say we were looking at running backs, receivers and let’s say there’s three running backs  receivers in the second round, how many teams that didn’t take a running back receiver in the first that we have penciled as a team that we see a running back receiver need for, maybe they reach here in the second round for that guy, will the third guy get to us? Or maybe we’d love to have any of these three if two of them go, do we want to be aggressive and go get that other one, or do we want to be patient and maybe get one in the third round and focus on another position. That’ll be my plan, watch day one and see what’s on the board for us and be ready for day to" 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

OK, I doctored this up and replaced "receiver" (what he did say) with running back which is what I think he meant and was thinking. He couldn't just say that but was being honest. He had just finished getting his #1 WR and there is no case where he would be lusting after only three key WR 's dropping deep into the second round.  This is how they (Beane et.a;.) have run the early parts of the previous 3 drafts- I'm expecting the same approach this year.

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Here is an idea on wide receivers to consider.  A typical story is that there are 21 WR rated in the top 100 and 9 in the top 40. (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2864432-ranking-the-top-10-wide-receivers-of-potentially-historic-2020-nfl-draft-class#slide0).

 

So there should be about 21 or so, drafted in the first 3 rounds.   If all these guys stick, (and GM's don't like to give up on high draft picks the first year), then there will be 20 or so veteran WR's dropped from the rosters and hitting FA or the waiver wire.   They will be highly available, because, well, most everybody got their roster full with wide receivers.

 

We have 3 good starters and many Bills fans feel that we need more depth at WR.  I would think that this upcoming year, when we have a chance to go deep into the playoffs, it would be nice to get a veteran WR backup for several reasons.  

 

#1    rookie WR's have a high bust rate,,,,,,,     Suddenly a lot of money and fame,,, but have to work hard, maybe for the first time,   

#2    rookies have to learn the more complicated pro game and have to learn disciplined passing trees- it takes a while.......

#3   we could pick up a veteran who is a known quantity and would have film on him in the NFL (rather then 3 years against DB's who never made it to the NFL),,,,,, 

#4   we could get a guy who fulfills our needs to complement or injury-replace our starters rather than getting raw material that might not fit

#6   I always get leery about feeding frenzies, where greed ("everyone else got one, I GOTTA get one") starts to influence judgement. Even pro teams can be victims of this.

#7   With all the new guys, it is a buyer's market and veterans will be cheaper than usual

 

Getting this "nearly free" pro-ready, low risk WR could come from several places.

  • Roster cut-downs
  • Trades prior to roster cut-downs
  • poach somebody off of a practice squad
  • look into the 2021 draft, where there will be much less pressure on drafting additional WR-  everybody is nearly full of them

Anyway,  we may not have to use the draft to improve the backup WR position and the above might make this more palatable.

 

 

 

 

 

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If we play a lot of spread, and we do, then you are basically "starting" 4-5 WR's. Besides, with Beasley and Brown, we were like 2nd in the league in dropped passes. I have no issues with doubling down on fixing one of the most glaring weaknesses this team had last year. I especially like the idea of a large catch radius, red zone target type of WR. 

 

But, if we don't go with a WR, I guarantee that I won't be pronouncing all who disagree with me to be idiots. Period. 

 

Reasonable minds may differ and the draft is one long adventure into uncertainty. 

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At this point, drafting a WR isn't about need.  It's about value.

Nobody we draft this year is going to start, barring injury or absolutely exceptional play in training camp/preseason. 

 

Our biggest "needs" are considered by many to be Running Back (rookie would split carries with Devin Singletary), Edge Rusher (rookie would be in a rotation behind Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison - and possibly Trent Murphy and Darryl Johnson), Defensive Back (rookie would be the nickel DB behind Siran Neal and Taron Johnson) or maybe Linebacker (rookie would fight for reps behind AJ Klein).

 

Mock Drafts keep having us draft WR, because of the crazy depth of this class.  We could probably wait until the 3rd Round and get someone who would be a back-end 1st Rounder in most drafts.  

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, mjt328 said:

At this point, drafting a WR isn't about need.  It's about value.

Nobody we draft this year is going to start, barring injury or absolutely exceptional play in training camp/preseason. 

 

Our biggest "needs" are considered by many to be Running Back (rookie would split carries with Devin Singletary), Edge Rusher (rookie would be in a rotation behind Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison - and possibly Trent Murphy and Darryl Johnson), Defensive Back (rookie would be the nickel DB behind Siran Neal and Taron Johnson) or maybe Linebacker (rookie would fight for reps behind AJ Klein).

 

Mock Drafts keep having us draft WR, because of the crazy depth of this class.  We could probably wait until the 3rd Round and get someone who would be a back-end 1st Rounder in most drafts.  

 

 

 

I disagree that "Nobody we draft this year is going to start..."   Homerism aside, Singletary is not a top notch running back. He is top 20 in rushing and top 45 in receiving.  This year there are a number of very good running backs available.  One of the top 3-4 may be available at our #54 (or with a modest trade-up like the Bills have done with their early picks in 2017, 2018 and 2019).  The 4,5,6 guys would be around at #54 and would probably be an upgrade or equivalant (at worst) to Singletary.  So the new RB1A would share time with Singletary but could be considered a starter.

Edited by maryland-bills-fan

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11 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

Am I not seeing something? I keep seeing people are wanting us to go WR first/second pick in this years draft. Why? We now have a stud WR1, an excellent WR2 and an excellent slot. All of these guys are under contract for the next 3+ years as well.

 

So people want us to use our 2nd rounder or 3rd to draft a backup WR that will hardly see the field or they are expecting one of these three to be cut in the near future(I'd like to hear which one lol).

 

Please someone shed some light on the matter.

 

 

Very seldom do teams go through an entire season without having receivers injured and missing games.  Good teams have a 4th WR that can play at a high level.  Buffalo does not have that kind of 4th WR.  Beasley and Brown are both 30 years old and are not the answer to the long term needs of a consistently competitive team.  With this being a very deep draft with really good talented players, it may be the only opportunity for a long time to draft a player with first round skills with a day two pick.  When you combine all of this with the fact that there really aren't any glaring holes in the roster, it's easy to see why the Bills go WR on day two, if they choose to do that.

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IMO, the problem with Drafting any player you "need" to produce is that Rookies rarely come right in and make a measurable impact. Most, nearly all, Rookies need at least a season in the NFL to make the type of contribution you hope they make when you Draft them. Getting good to great players who have the luxury of learning for a year means their development and career impact will most likely be improved while the team doesn't depend on their production. 

 

For too many years the Buffalo Bills were Drafting for "need" and then expecting to squeeze diamonds out of dog ****. But Drafting a WR this year (or two) means they get to learn behind good Vets and develop their own game and if they out play one of those Vets, then that just means the level of excellence has risen and I think we can all agree that's a good thing. To me, if I were Beane, I would be targeting a guy to take over for John Brown first. He has two years left and getting a guy like Ayiuk who can play the slot or the outside allows for versatility and growth. Ayiuk is also a solid returner, which means that's probably where he could see some immediate time to relieve Roberts as well. Claypool is another guy who can go between outside, bigger than Ayiuk, or play in the slot. But, having a WR this year who does not HAVE TO be their #2 / #3 and can learn for a year while the team is still thriving with their current WRs is a perfect example of why Beane has done such a terrific job. Nobody they Draft will "need" to be the primary at their position. RB will most likely need to help Singletary but he won't be expected to carry the load just yet, if ever. 

 

That's what good GMs do: they Draft for the present AND the future, rather than running to fire and hoping their extinguisher works.

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11 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:
  11 hours ago, Augie said:

 

He could very well contribute early next year. What happens when one guy pulls a hammy or gets a concussion? We will be back to playing the same folks we complained about last season. 

 

Period. 

Really??? So people complained last year and we go out and trade a 1st rounder for a Stefon Diggs and you are saying that is not enough?

 

Any stats out there on how often we went with 4 WRs out on the field?(not DeMarco lining up wide lol)

 

A teams 4th WR should not be drafted in the first 3 rounds.

 

Period.

 

It's like you read the 1st sentence and pounced on the keyboard. If an injury happens(especially to Diggs) we're right back where we started. You mention Mckendrick, Foster, Duke and Roberts. Again, we're right back to last years lineup and everyone agreed we needed help at WR. We should upgrade this roster anywhere we can.

One more thing. You asked for people to shed some light on this matter. You should have added "You're all going to be wrong, though".

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11 hours ago, Augie said:

Because Beasley and Brown are about 31 and 30 years old, as I recall. I didn’t look it up, but that’s close and our WR corp is getting up there in age. A young guy to bring along could come in handy in the next year or two. Find quality depth to start developing if its a good fit and value.  One bad hammy and you may need that help sooner than you think. 

 

You have possibly a generationally deep WR class. Why would you NOT want to take advantage of it if the cards fell that way? 

 

.

 

Exactly this.  The Bills are at the point where they can afford to look to the future.   WRs taken after the first round tend to need a couple of years to come into their own, so if the Bills can grab a talented youngster who needs a season or two to adjust to the pro game, that would provide them with upgraded depth now (2nd or 3rd round picks tend to be more talented than 6th or 7th round players) and possibly a quality starter in a season or two.   That's how winning teams are built -- always looking to upgrade the talent on the team -- rather than creating roster holes with short-sighted personnel decisions,  using the draft to fill those holes, and depending upon bottom feeder FAs and UDFA rookies for depth, which was how the Bills operated pretty much since Polian left until the Beane regime.

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It’s nothing more than a numbers game. You only have +/- seven draft picks each year and you have a number of roster positions that have  multiple players (O-Line, CB, Wr) on the field every single play. Factor in the natural turnover due to age (not talent) and it’s hard to imagine a team not drafting a player at each of these positions EVERY year. 

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10 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

That's most backups for many teams. Is their a free agent WR that would be an upgrade in your opinion?

 

Most teams also don't make the playoffs.  If a team doesn't have quality backups throughout most of the roster, then they are aren't really Super Bowl contenders.   Consider that both KC and New Orleans lost their starting QBs for several weeks early in the season.   Seattle went through all their RBs but still made the playoffs and Philly went through their entire WR corps and still made the playoffs.   A team can't play "next man up" if the "next man" isn't good enough.

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12 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

Am I not seeing something? I keep seeing people are wanting us to go WR first/second pick in this years draft. Why? We now have a stud WR1, an excellent WR2 and an excellent slot. All of these guys are under contract for the next 3+ years as well.

 

So people want us to use our 2nd rounder or 3rd to draft a backup WR that will hardly see the field or they are expecting one of these three to be cut in the near future(I'd like to hear which one lol).

 

Please someone shed some light on the matter.

 

 


Where are people saying they want a WR in round 2 or 3?  It’s a deep draft and we sure could use a WR or two for depth and development, but who’s saying it should happen on day 2 of the draft?

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15 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

Most teams also don't make the playoffs.  If a team doesn't have quality backups throughout most of the roster, then they are aren't really Super Bowl contenders.   Consider that both KC and New Orleans lost their starting QBs for several weeks early in the season.   Seattle went through all their RBs but still made the playoffs and Philly went through their entire WR corps and still made the playoffs.   A team can't play "next man up" if the "next man" isn't good enough.

If you read many posts on here you’d think the Bills played the ENTIRE season without a Right Tackle but still made the playoffs. 😂

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6 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

Mckendrick is the best, all of those end arounds. Also he can play special teams. 

 

There isn't anyone on the team named "McKendrick." 

 

I've seen multiple posters here sufficiently demonstrate the need for another WR given current league trends, potential for injuries, etc.  What I don't see is an understanding beyond a surface level of how little it takes to get into depth.  Besides, competition is good and developing players is essential. 

 

The Bills were a very healthy team last season and hopefully it continues in 2020.  For the record, I believe this GM and HC are trying to anticipate issues and preemptively address them.  They don't sit there and have something happen without a contingency plan. 

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Free agency is for shoring up your roster now, adding vets that can play.

 

Drafting in all rounds but particularly outside of round 1, is about building your roster for the future. 

 

Beane has shown he understands that and essentially has characterized both in this way. 

 

Why a WR? As others have pointed out while Diggs is young (26) and signed for 4 years, Brown and Beasley have only 2 years left on their deals and are around 30 years old. Bringing in young talent to eventually replace 1 or both and maybe chip in a little now is super smart and strategic. That is how you have sustained success. 

 

If I was a GM, I would look at the draft in rolling 4 year cycles. If I have a full complement of picks in rounds 1-4 each year I would draft:

  • A WR 3 out of 4 years
  • A CB 3 of 4 years
  • A RB 2 of 4 years (and 1 in rounds 5-7 at least 1 year)
  • OL 3 of 4 years
  • DL 3 of 4 years

That's 14 picks, then I use the others to address the other positions like S, LB, TE. Hopefully you have your QB so don't need that for awhile though at some point you bring in a developmental guy but use free agency to have a vet backup. 

 

Use rounds 5-7 for BPA and draft athletes hopefully at least 1 per year turns into a player and 1 other sticks on roster. 

 

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13 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

Am I not seeing something? I keep seeing people are wanting us to go WR first/second pick in this years draft. Why? We now have a stud WR1, an excellent WR2 and an excellent slot. All of these guys are under contract for the next 3+ years as well.

 

So people want us to use our 2nd rounder or 3rd to draft a backup WR that will hardly see the field or they are expecting one of these three to be cut in the near future(I'd like to hear which one lol).

 

Please someone shed some light on the matter.

 

 

Because ( God forbid) BUT injuries do happen 

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13 hours ago, MrSarcasm said:

Am I not seeing something? I keep seeing people are wanting us to go WR first/second pick in this years draft. Why? We now have a stud WR1, an excellent WR2 and an excellent slot. All of these guys are under contract for the next 3+ years as well.

 

So people want us to use our 2nd rounder or 3rd to draft a backup WR that will hardly see the field or they are expecting one of these three to be cut in the near future(I'd like to hear which one lol).

 

Please someone shed some light on the matter.

 

 

 

Because you always need to plan for 2-3 years down the road not just the upcoming year if you want to build a successful team for the long haul.  So you draft a WR this year knowing he might not contribute a lot this year but he will get a chance to develop and learn the offense and then have a bigger role next year and the year after that as both Brown and Beasley are getting older...

 

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