5th year option on Allen or bid on Watson in FA in 22

[Hampton Josh fan]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

You can't do both? 

 

I believe Josh can be great in this league. I think you can support him but be critical at the same time. This thread is just a hypothetical question. Relax. 

I guess hypotheticals are pert of message boards, but I just can't see Watson being worth blowing your cap flexibility for minimal difference in productivity.  If the criticism is warranted and trading out of a high draft choice is needed, I'd be all in. 

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

 

I just don't believe you can remove the lynch pin of the offense in Hopkins, who was a great player before Watson came aboard, and expect everything to be fine.  But I guess we'll find out in a few months.

 

Watson is the lynchpin of that offense. 

[Hampton Josh fan]

7 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Some corrections:
- If there’s one guy who got the Bills out of purgatory, it is McDermott.

- Even if Watson were to get $40M/yr next season, that would still be less than 20% of the cap even in year 1.  That’s about what elite QBs will make.  Even middling QBs won’t be far behind at around $30M/yr.  

- Sure, the optimum situation is draft and keep an elite QB that you win Super Bowls with.  But it’d be really dumb to stick with a poor or middling QB just because you drafted him.  The next best situation is to find that elite QB some other way.  I don’t think anyone in New Orleans is upset that the Saints didn’t draft Brees.  Or anyone in Green Bay was pissed off that they didn’t draft Favre.

- Allen is only one season behind Watson in being due a new contract.  If he steps it up and becomes an elite QB, then he’s also going to get that $40M/yr deal.  I hope he does prove himself worthy of that.  But if he doesn’t, I’d rather the Bills have a different elite QB that they have to pay rather than a middling one that they have to pay almost as much. 

How many elite free agent QBs have come to Buffalo in the  team's history. If you said none,you'd be correct. I guess during the lockdown,  dreaming is allowed. Josh went 10 and 5 in year 2, without a #1 receiver.. Where are you going with this argument ?

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

 

I just don't believe you can remove the lynch pin of the offense in Hopkins, who was a great player before Watson came aboard, and expect everything to be fine.  But I guess we'll find out in a few months.

I guess that depends on if Hopkins was the lynchpin or Watson actually is.
 

im not saying zero impact but I think Watson is one of the better young QBs and won’t drastically regress Just because he isn’t being propped up artificially by the team around him like so many other young guys we’ve seen. He is a centerpiece player it seems. 

Edited April 4, 2020 by NoSaint

[Billl]

5 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I guess that depends on if Hopkins was the lynchpin or Watson actually is.
 

im not saying zero impact but I think Watson is one of the better young QBs and won’t drastically regress Just because he isn’t being propped up artificially by the team around him like so many other young guys we’ve seen. He is a centerpiece player it seems. 

Josh Allen stats:  20 TDs, 3,089 yards

Josh Allen stats subtracting John Brown’s catches:  14 TDs 2,029 yards

Deshaun Watson stats:  26 TDs, 3,852 yards

Deshaun Watson stats subtracting Hopkins’s catches:  19 TDs, 2,687 yards

 

 

[BarleyNY]

4 minutes ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

How many elite free agent QBs have come to Buffalo in the  team's history. If you said none,you'd be correct. I guess during the lockdown,  dreaming is allowed. Josh went 10 and 5 in year 2, without a #1 receiver.. Where are you going with this argument ?

Kelly was certainly elite.  My point is that your previous post was packed full of misinformation.  If someone has to blow smoke or outright lie to make a point, then they’re almost certainly wrong.  Also, Josh didn’t do anything by himself.  The Bills as a team are responsible for their record.  At times Allen helped the team win and at others he hindered it from doing so.  Watch the games without bias or look at metrics and either way the situation is pretty clear.  Right now Bills are a much better team than Allen is a QB.  That doesn’t mean that he isn’t going to improve.  Again, I hope he busts out and becomes elite - and the path forward is pretty clear if that’s the case.  But I’m not into hero worship and I’m willing to think about contingencies if he doesn’t.  That’s all the Watson thread was about.  

[Doc]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Watson is the lynchpin of that offense. 

 

58 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I guess that depends on if Hopkins was the lynchpin or Watson actually is.
 

im not saying zero impact but I think Watson is one of the better young QBs and won’t drastically regress Just because he isn’t being propped up artificially by the team around him like so many other young guys we’ve seen. He is a centerpiece player it seems. 

 

Hopkins had virtually the same (career) season in 2018 with Watson as he did in 2015 with a bunch of schlubs (Hoyer, Mallett, Yates, Weeden) throwing to him.  The Texans also made the playoffs that year and in 2016, the year before Watson arrived.  I'm inclined to lean towards Hopkins being the lynch pin.

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Doc

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

 

Hopkins had had virtually the same (career) season he had in 2018 with Watson as he did in 2015 with a bunch of schlubs (Hoyer, Mallett, Yates, Weeden) throwing to him.  The Texans also made the playoffs that year and in 2016, the year before Watson arrived.  I'm inclined to lean towards Hopkins being the lynch pin.

 

My feelings exactly. 

[Hampton Josh fan]

4 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Kelly was certainly elite.  My point is that your previous post was packed full of misinformation.  If someone has to blow smoke or outright lie to make a point, then they’re almost certainly wrong.  Also, Josh didn’t do anything by himself.  The Bills as a team are responsible for their record.  At times Allen helped the team win and at others he hindered it from doing so.  Watch the games without bias or look at metrics and either way the situation is pretty clear.  Right now Bills are a much better team than Allen is a QB.  That doesn’t mean that he isn’t going to improve.  Again, I hope he busts out and becomes elite - and the path forward is pretty clear if that’s the case.  But I’m not into hero worship and I’m willing to think about contingencies if he doesn’t.  That’s all the Watson thread was about.  

This will be my final installment. Kelly was a Bills draft choice back in 83 and his first instinct was to play in the USFL. Point being, elite free agent QBs aren't coming here. The Bill's offense was subpar last year and JAs running was a huge positive. Gore was MIA in the last half of the. season. Brown was solid, but when the Texans decided to take him away, the Bill's were JA runs and plays he pulled out of his behind, running for his life. Why call it hero worship, it's a young talent on the come. Think about contingencies all you  want, there all worse than being a big Josh fan.

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

 

Hopkins had had virtually the same (career) season he had in 2018 with Watson as he did in 2015 with a bunch of schlubs (Hoyer, Mallett, Yates, Weeden) throwing to him.  The Texans also made the playoffs that year and in 2016, the year before Watson arrived.  I'm inclined to lean towards Hopkins being the lynch pin.

 

 

Well I am very confident your mind will be changed. If your mind is actually open to being changed that is.

[Doc]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

Well I am very confident your mind will be changed. If your mind is actually open to being changed that is.

 

Hey, if Watson can put up close to the numbers he has the past 2 years without arguably the best WR in the NFL, I'll give him props.  Again I never said he wasn't a good QB, just that Hopkins' absence will affect his production. 

[Hardhatharry]

Watson is slightly above average but he needs a WRs like Hopkins.

[GoBills808]

14 hours ago, Mango said:

Because your allegiance is to your team, so you would rather upgrade the position (in your opinion) for the Buffalo Bills. Where as his allegiance is to Josh Allen, regardless of possibly (or not in his opinion) upgrading the position. 

My allegiance is to the fact that if Josh Allen is not the guy, none of the progress the team has made over the last three years will matter. If he busts we won't be able to afford to keep this defense together, bring along a new QB or one in free agency, AND keep the staff/culture in place to win a Super Bowl for the next 3-6 years.

 

So yeah, I have a vested interest in Allen succeeding. The Bills' window is wide open and there are only a few things that will shut it, Allen flaming out chief among them. That's why I stand on saying there will be no point in asking this question in 2 years because we will already have won the Super Bowl and Allen cements himself as a top 5 guy.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

I'm sure Josh will make his money if he wins games and especially playoff games, but just my opinion, he would be more likely to give a team friendly deal in order to keep the team at a high level, like Brady

 

 

Think that is complete wishful thinking. If Josh gets to that level he is getting paid. And if Buffalo doesn't pay him someone else will. With Brady he just always backfilled. Which meant the Pats were competitive while he was there but were always gonna be left with a big cap hit when he left. 

[BarleyNY]

45 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

My allegiance is to the fact that if Josh Allen is not the guy, none of the progress the team has made over the last three years will matter. If he busts we won't be able to afford to keep this defense together, bring along a new QB or one in free agency, AND keep the staff/culture in place to win a Super Bowl for the next 3-6 years.

 

So yeah, I have a vested interest in Allen succeeding. The Bills' window is wide open and there are only a few things that will shut it, Allen flaming out chief among them. That's why I stand on saying there will be no point in asking this question in 2 years because we will already have won the Super Bowl and Allen cements himself as a top 5 guy.

I really disagree that all of the Bills eggs are in the Allen basket.  Why wouldn't the Bills be able to attract a franchise QB like Watson if they have their team built otherwise?  In that case Buffalo would be highly desirable.
 

As far as keeping the team together, we only have Allen under a cheap contract this season and next.  Fifth year options for QBs are not cheap.  We are going to have to pay him or someone else by then (unless we were to draft someone else).  

[Hampton Josh fan]

48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think that is complete wishful thinking. If Josh gets to that level he is getting paid. And if Buffalo doesn't pay him someone else will. With Brady he just always backfilled. Which meant the Pats were competitive while he was there but were always gonna be left with a big cap hit when he left. 

Maybe it's wishful thinking. Let's hope he gives us a good ride before we get there. 

[ColoradoBills]

On 4/3/2020 at 12:30 PM, Mango said:

COVID had me thinking. With all the trade rumors and twitter posts about Watson in Houston, I have a gut feeling he would rather see FA than re sign there (but who knows I guess). The Texans would be foolish to not take the 5th year option.

 

If he hits FA in 2 years, would you rather get into a bidding war and pay him $40M per (guessing 2022 value) or keep moving forward with Allen, taking his 5th year option, to an eventual extension?

 

I typically avoid these "would you do this or this" threads like they are the plague (Covid remark intended) BUT it seems to me

your hypothetical situation will probably not happen.

 

The Texans have to decide on whether they pick up Watson's 5th year option by May 30, 2020.  That is before the 2020 season begins.

Allen is 1 year behind Watson so the Bills have to decide on Allen's 5th year option before the start of the 2021 season.

 

IF Watson decides to become a FA in 2022 and/or has to wait on the Texans Franchise Tag option the decision on Allen's 5th year option

will already have happened.

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, Hampton Josh fan said:

This will be my final installment. Kelly was a Bills draft choice back in 83 and his first instinct was to play in the USFL. Point being, elite free agent QBs aren't coming here. The Bill's offense was subpar last year and JAs running was a huge positive. Gore was MIA in the last half of the. season. Brown was solid, but when the Texans decided to take him away, the Bill's were JA runs and plays he pulled out of his behind, running for his life. Why call it hero worship, it's a young talent on the come. Think about contingencies all you  want, there all worse than being a big Josh fan.

You can be as big of a Josh fan as you want.  I prefer being a Bills fan. 

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I typically avoid these "would you do this or this" threads like they are the plague (Covid remark intended) BUT it seems to me

your hypothetical situation will probably not happen.

 

The Texans have to decide on whether they pick up Watson's 5th year option by May 30, 2020.  That is before the 2020 season begins.

Allen is 1 year behind Watson so the Bills have to decide on Allen's 5th year option before the start of the 2021 season.

 

IF Watson decides to become a FA in 2022 and/or has to wait on the Texans Franchise Tag option the decision on Allen's 5th year option

will already have happened.

 

Where it could (and I agree it almost certainly won't) come into being is if Watson is tagged after his 5th year. Allen plays out his 5th year while Watson plays on the tag. Then both are FAs at the same time potentially. Agree it won't happen but that is the only plausible way it could. 

[Mango]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Where it could (and I agree it almost certainly won't) come into being is if Watson is tagged after his 5th year. Allen plays out his 5th year while Watson plays on the tag. Then both are FAs at the same time potentially. Agree it won't happen but that is the only plausible way it could. 

I agree with this and I started this thread. Haha

 

If Watson leaves Houston, and that’s a HUGE if, I would imagine it is a tag and trade. But yes, unlikely.

[DefenseWins]

I hate to be the "Devil's Advocate" in all this discussion but at this point none of us knows whether there will even be a 2020 NFL season. Poloncarz was asked about that and seemed to say that he wasn't so sure there would even be a season with the Covid-19 situation. There has already been some discussion on what the league "might" do under these conditions as to whether or not a player would even accrue credit for a season if the season had to be cancelled. Right now it is hard to count on much of anything...

[Doc]

2 hours ago, DefenseWins said:

I hate to be the "Devil's Advocate" in all this discussion but at this point none of us knows whether there will even be a 2020 NFL season. Poloncarz was asked about that and seemed to say that he wasn't so sure there would even be a season with the Covid-19 situation. There has already been some discussion on what the league "might" do under these conditions as to whether or not a player would even accrue credit for a season if the season had to be cancelled. Right now it is hard to count on much of anything...

 

I think that at worst, they'll play games without fans.  The majority of their revenue comes from TV and those ratings will be huge.  And by then, they should be able to test players at-will.

[DefenseWins]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

I think that at worst, they'll play games without fans.  The majority of their revenue comes from TV and those ratings will be huge.  And by then, they should be able to test players at-will.

 

Yeah, I've heard about that. Wrestlemania over the weekend took place without fans present. I'm not sure that can work over a 16 game season. But it's beginning to appear like we just might find out. 

[Putin]

On 4/3/2020 at 6:15 PM, FarrellsFinest said:

Idk why we passed on Watson to begin with..or Pat. They were great in college and we needed a qb. But im all in on Allen at this point ride or die!

 

I think having Tyrod at the time not being able to stay in the pocket and throw the ball ,and really I think we were looking  for a pocket passer with a BIG arm , I’m sure the weather in Buffalo had to be on they’re mind as well 

just my opinion ( I’m probably wrong as hell )

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/4/2020 at 11:48 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Think that is complete wishful thinking. If Josh gets to that level he is getting paid. And if Buffalo doesn't pay him someone else will. With Brady he just always backfilled. Which meant the Pats were competitive while he was there but were always gonna be left with a big cap hit when he left. 

 

Agreed.  Brady also had a wife who made more money than him and made a killing in endorsements.  Brady's situation was about as unique as one can get in terms of making it easy to take team friendly deals.  

[Don Otreply]

Allen in all reality has this upcoming season and next season with good results to show he is worth another contract before he gets booted. He will get resigned if he gets us playoff wins, QBs that can do that with some regularity don’t just get tossed, and it appears likely this will be the case. 
   For those that have fear otherwise, relax, Beane already has plans for that possibility. 
 

Stay healthy Bills Nation!!!

[Doc]

22 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Agreed.  Brady also had a wife who made more money than him and made a killing in endorsements.  Brady's situation was about as unique as one can get in terms of making it easy to take team friendly deals.  

 

And he was probably getting paid under the table as well.

[DCofNC]

On 4/3/2020 at 3:47 PM, Billl said:

There is a LOT of buzz that DW wants out of Houston.  Watson already is what everyone hopes Allen will someday become.  Given the choice, you pay whatever it takes to get Watson and see what you can get in trade for Allen.  I can’t imagine there is a GM in the league (Beane possibly excluded) who would prefer Allen at $30,000,000 over Watson at $40,000,000.

Watson can force his way out, but it’s going to be after the 5th year and the 6th year franchise tag and quite possibly the 7th year Franchise tag if he won’t extend.  At that point it’s going to be a couple of 1st rounders minimum to make the trade for him and pay 40m+ a year.  I’m still ok with that, I think. Who knows, maybe they play him on the 2nd franchise tag and then tag him a 3rd time or transition tag?  It will be interesting.