There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[SoCal Deek]

8 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..we cannot close....we're deemed an Essential Business under NYS guidelines...…..we provide electrical services (200 employees) and maintenance to all hospitals locally, the University of Rochester medical campus, 47 Wegmans stores in NYS as well as their production facilities for starters...….

We never actually closed operations, but we did close our offices.  We're a large California architectural firm specializing in K14 educational projects, with over a million square feet of construction underway.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

We never actually closed operations, but we did close our offices.  We're a large California architectural firm specializing in K14 educational projects, with over a million square feet of construction underway.

 

…...seeing that the stadium project in Cali is now delayed, I assume all of your projects are affected as well...….

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

…...seeing that the stadium project in Cali is now delayed, I assume all of your projects are affected as well...….

slowed but not stopped

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

10 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

slowed but not stopped

 

…...so you have ongoing design work being done remotely?...……...

[dpberr]

28 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

She's a lot like President Trump - a leader with zero personal intuition for how desperate/lonely/useless the average person may feel right now.   

 

None of these governors seem to realize at least publicly is that these lockdowns will never work again in most parts of the United States. 

 

 

[3rdnlng]

47 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

She reminds me of Leader Obama who closed previously unmanned monuments during a government shutdown. The guy who evicted homeowners from their homes because they lived on federal leased land. The guy who said he wanted to make the shutdown as painful as possible. Those lefties sure like to tell other people what to do!

3 minutes ago, dpberr said:

She's a lot like President Trump - a leader with zero personal intuition for how desperate/lonely/useless the average person may feel right now.   

 

None of these governors seem to realize at least publicly is that these lockdowns will never work again in most parts of the United States. 

 

 

So, you think Trump is tone deaf to the average person?

[dpberr]

3 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

She reminds me of Leader Obama who closed previously unmanned monuments during a government shutdown. The guy who evicted homeowners from their homes because they lived on federal leased land. The guy who said he wanted to make the shutdown as painful as possible. Those lefties sure like to tell other people what to do!

So, you think Trump is tone deaf to the average person?

 

Absolutely.  And that comes from a person who voted for him in 2016.  It has never been one of his strengths, and this crisis highlights the weakness.  

   

[3rdnlng]

12 minutes ago, dpberr said:

 

Absolutely.  And that comes from a person who voted for him in 2016.  It has never been one of his strengths, and this crisis highlights the weakness.  

   

Trump relates to the average person more than any president since 1988. "I feel your pain" was contrived. 

[B-Man]

 

 

If you're sitting around watching TV news commentary about our coronavirus predicament...

 

... and I don't recommend that you do... here's a drinking game you can play... not that I recommend drinking... either seriously or in a game... maybe just pay attention and — like us — exclaim in delighted outrage whenever this happens:

Somebody who means to say "open the economy" says "open the government."

It's telling! And it happens a lot!

 

Posted by Ann Althouse

 

 

.

[MILFHUNTER#518]

5 hours ago, B-Man said:

Here’s One Thing Officials Can Do to Make Lockdown Life Better: Stop Being Hypocritical Tyrants.

 

There are the police officers who thought it was a good idea to pester a little girl shooting baskets alone in a park. She was socially distanced. She was fine. If a game of street 3-on-3 suddenly broke out, well, that’s a different story. But she was alone. So leave her alone. The police later apologized, but they should have just used some common sense and avoided the whole situation. And there are the police officers in Colorado who arrested a dad playing ball with his daughter in a park. Leave people alone or this could start getting ugly. Most Americans support the police, but we don’t support a police state.

 

There are the officials who decided Easter weekend was a good opportunity to start messing with churches struggling like everyone else to deal with the new reality. California’s Mendocino County is banning church singing on a livestream. How does this help stop the spread of coronavirus? Kentucky’s Democrat governor took to taking down Christians’ license plates for going to church in their cars. How does this help halt the virus from spreading? It doesn’t. It just makes people who are already on edge that much edgier. Elections matter. Remember this in a few years and do better.

 

Michigan should also do better. It elected the cluelessly tyrannical Gretchen Whitmer as its governor. A few weeks ago Whitmer was a rising Democrat star. Now, she’s a petty thug who’s in over her head (which doesn’t rule her out of still being a rising Democrat star). She’s awful. She has gone on a power trip worthy of Blofeld, the nutty Bond villain who built a fortress in a volcano and fed his underlings to piranhas. . . .

It’s very hard on free people who are used to being able to do what they want when they want, who had a job one day and thanks to a government decree they don’t have a job the next day. They didn’t ask for any of this, nor did they cause it. When we see Chicago’s mayor ban haircuts, and then get one herself because she’s privileged and you’re not and she imposes a curfew on others for no evident reason, and when we see a Texas county judge apparently violate his own stay at home order, it sends the entirely wrong signal in a republic where the people are supposed to be the government.

 

It also hints at something a whole lot darker that our dear leaders had better not let fester. And the best thing they can do to prevent that is to stop acting like petty little tyrants.

 

 

 

I’m not saying that these people should be horswhipped naked through the streets. Yet. But examples need to be made, and I don’t just mean half-assed after-the-fact apologies.

 

 

 

.

Amen brother! 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

She reminds me of Leader Obama who closed previously unmanned monuments during a government shutdown. The guy who evicted homeowners from their homes because they lived on federal leased land. The guy who said he wanted to make the shutdown as painful as possible. Those lefties sure like to tell other people what to do!

So, you think Trump is tone deaf to the average person?

...that is where I had to stop reading in deference to an obvious "oxymoron"..............

[SoCal Deek]

19 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

…...so you have ongoing design work being done remotely?...……...

Yes. Nothing is drawn by hand anymore. Everything is designed/modeled/drafted on the computer. CADD has now evolved into 3D believe it or not. We do however work a lot in teams on our larger projects so while it’s been a bit strained it’s certainly been doable. Daily check in video meeting with my design studio every morning.

[Gary M]

16 hours ago, B-Man said:

 

If you're sitting around watching TV news commentary about our coronavirus predicament...

 

... and I don't recommend that you do... here's a drinking game you can play... not that I recommend drinking... either seriously or in a game... maybe just pay attention and — like us — exclaim in delighted outrage whenever this happens:

Somebody who means to say "open the economy" says "open the government."

It's telling! And it happens a lot!

 

Posted by Ann Althouse

 

 

I noticed that the other day

[ChevyVanMiller]

 I only had the time to read through a couple of pages of this thread so forgive me if this has already been discussed. I'm wondering what everyone's thoughts are on how we can successfully reopen businesses once quarantines begin being lifted?

 

I listened to the governor of California who stated that things as we knew them will no longer exist. He mentioned that restaurants would have to be only partially full with people sitting at proper social distancing rates from one another. The same for things like movie theaters and entertainment venues.

.

The problem with that is that most business models in our society are predicated on places being full to survive and thrive. Restaurants that don't have full tables and people waiting to get in very rarely survive. The same for movie theaters, concert venues, hotels, retail outlets  and any sort of entertainment attraction.

 

I work in that field (for a 1,000 room hotel) and I fear that most most businesses will not survive unless people come back in droves.

 

I don't have the answer, but would love to be part of a think tank that figures out ways that we can get the economy rolling again because to do it with only partially full businesses is going to mean most of them are going to go bankrupt.

 

Would love to hear your thoughts.

 

 

 

 

 

[RochesterRob]

16 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

 I only had the time to read through a couple of pages of this thread so forgive me if this has already been discussed. I'm wondering what everyone's thoughts are on how we can successfully reopen businesses once quarantines begin being lifted?

 

I listened to the governor of California who stated that things as we knew them will no longer exist. He mentioned that restaurants would have to be only partially full with people sitting at proper social distancing rates from one another. The same for things like movie theaters and entertainment venues.

.

The problem with that is that most business models in our society are predicated on places being full to survive and thrive. Restaurants that don't have full tables and people waiting to get in very rarely survive. The same for movie theaters, concert venues, hotels, retail outlets  and any sort of entertainment attraction.

 

I work in that field (for a 1,000 room hotel) and I fear that most most businesses will not survive unless people come back in droves.

 

I don't have the answer, but would love to be part of a think tank that figures out ways that we can get the economy rolling again because to do it with only partially full businesses is going to mean most of them are going to go bankrupt.

 

Would love to hear your thoughts.

 

 

 

 

 

  My gut feeling is a lot of things are going to struggle badly.  Thanks for giving us a perspective from the hospitality industry.  My perspective from watching the country cousins is that agriculture is and will struggle badly.  There is still milk not being picked up costing farmers income.  Meat processing plants are dealing with COVID 19 concerns in terms of employees forcing some closures.  Both milk and meat not being processed creates a cascade through the economy.  Many businesses here in WNY depends on agriculture for their survival.  Banks depend on healthy portfolios of the various businesses that they finance and when balance sheets erode it affects the health of the bank as well as its customers.

Edited April 16, 2020 by RochesterRob

[Magox]

17 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:

 I only had the time to read through a couple of pages of this thread so forgive me if this has already been discussed. I'm wondering what everyone's thoughts are on how we can successfully reopen businesses once quarantines begin being lifted?

 

I listened to the governor of California who stated that things as we knew them will no longer exist. He mentioned that restaurants would have to be only partially full with people sitting at proper social distancing rates from one another. The same for things like movie theaters and entertainment venues.

.

The problem with that is that most business models in our society are predicated on places being full to survive and thrive. Restaurants that don't have full tables and people waiting to get in very rarely survive. The same for movie theaters, concert venues, hotels, retail outlets  and any sort of entertainment attraction.

 

I work in that field (for a 1,000 room hotel) and I fear that most most businesses will not survive unless people come back in droves.

 

I don't have the answer, but would love to be part of a think tank that figures out ways that we can get the economy rolling again because to do it with only partially full businesses is going to mean most of them are going to go bankrupt.

 

Would love to hear your thoughts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately, I don't think people are going to come back in droves in the airline, hotel and vacation business anytime soon.  Or for that matter a number of other industries, until the public perception believes that the Virus is pretty much under near full control which won't be until after a vaccine.   And even then, it takes time for the Vaccine to be applied to the masses and then there is still the economic fallout that will take time to rebuild.  I don't see places like Vegas or South Beach being what they were for probably another 30 months or so.  That's not to say that other industries won't recover sooner than that or even all hospitality businesses.  There are a number of variables involved.

 

The two big keys will be:  Public perception, when the public feels safe to go back to life pre COVID 19.    And the economic fallout, how long will it take to recover?

[RochesterRob]

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

Unfortunately, I don't think people are going to come back in droves in the airline, hotel and vacation business anytime soon.  Or for that matter a number of other industries, until the public perception believes that the Virus is pretty much under near full control which won't be until after a vaccine.   And even then, it takes time for the Vaccine to be applied to the masses and then there is still the economic fallout that will take time to rebuild.  I don't see places like Vegas or South Beach being what they were for probably another 30 months or so.  That's not to say that other industries won't recover sooner than that or even all hospitality businesses.  There are a number of variables involved.

 

The two big keys will be:  Public perception, when the public feels safe to go back to life pre COVID 19.    And the economic fallout, how long will it take to recover?

  Most vulnerable businesses will cease to exist long before 30 months elapses.  Nearly all have to borrow money to operate and no doubt the creditors are feeling very vulnerable themselves.

[B-Man]

 

 

PUSHBACK: Pennsylvania State Senate votes to override governor’s stay-at-home order. 

 

“The measure, Senate Bill 613, would require the governor’s office to align with federal guidelines in determining which businesses will be allowed to reopen during the pandemic, allowing all those that can safely operate with mitigation strategies under Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency guidelines. The measure passed the senate 29-21 Wednesday after passing the state House 107-95 Tuesday.”

 

 

.

 

[Magox]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  Most vulnerable businesses will cease to exist long before 30 months elapses.  Nearly all have to borrow money to operate and no doubt the creditors are feeling very vulnerable themselves.

 

For sure, but that's not what I was implying.  I'm taking into account businesses permanently shuddering which there will be lots and eventually new businesses replacing them in some sort of capacity.  And that full economic activity won't return to pre Covid 19 levels for some industries for at least 30 months.

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

For sure, but that's not what I was implying.  I'm taking into account businesses permanently shuddering which there will be lots and eventually new businesses replacing them in some sort of capacity.  And that full economic activity won't return to pre Covid 19 levels for some industries for at least 30 months.

  And where is the money coming from for these new businesses?  From under the mattress?  The sock drawer?  Most businesses depend on the ability to borrow money.  Who gets to decide who fails and who takes the place of the fallen?  There will be many chit storms over that.

[Magox]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  And where is the money coming from for these new businesses?  From under the mattress?  The sock drawer?  Most businesses depend on the ability to borrow money.  Who gets to decide who fails and who takes the place of the fallen?  There will be many chit storms over that.

 

It's gonna suck.  But I believe we'll get there, just that it will take some time.  I know Trump believes it will be a V recovery, I just don't see that happening.

[RochesterRob]

4 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

It's gonna suck.  But I believe we'll get there, just that it will take some time.  I know Trump believes it will be a V recovery, I just don't see that happening.

  It's gonna more than just suck.  People will be flocking to extremist groups and civil unrest will be far and wide unfortunately.

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  It's gonna more than just suck.  People will be flocking to extremist groups and civil unrest will be far and wide unfortunately.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see some realignments from a socioeconomic standpoint.   

 

I could see people moving slightly more towards a libertarianish bent if these social distancing and infringement of civil liberty policies persist.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

4 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yes. Nothing is drawn by hand anymore. Everything is designed/modeled/drafted on the computer. CADD has now evolved into 3D believe it or not. We do however work a lot in teams on our larger projects so while it’s been a bit strained it’s certainly been doable. Daily check in video meeting with my design studio every morning.

 

...same parameters for our Electrical Design Department.....

[BuffaloHokie13]

4 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Yes. Nothing is drawn by hand anymore. Everything is designed/modeled/drafted on the computer. CADD has now evolved into 3D believe it or not. We do however work a lot in teams on our larger projects so while it’s been a bit strained it’s certainly been doable. Daily check in video meeting with my design studio every morning.

Wanna buy some townhouse lots? ?

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[3rdnlng]

I posted a few days ago that the time to get back to something near normal is when we get to a point where we wouldn't have shut down the economy in the first place. When each state or area becomes prepared enough to handle the influx of new cases then it's back to work we go. We should use precautions such as masks in crowded areas, frequent hand washing and extra precautions for the elderly or those susceptible to infection. 

 

The thing to worry the most here is the desire by those people, politicians and leftist looking demagogues that want to use this pandemic to fundamentally change our country. No, we don't need to change the way we vote, free prisoners or outlaw protests because of Covid-19. We need to stay practical and adhere to our constitution and culture. 

[dpberr]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see some realignments from a socioeconomic standpoint.   

 

I could see people moving slightly more towards a libertarianish bent if these social distancing and infringement of civil liberty policies persist.

 

People without money, without purpose and feeling helpless are formidable opponents to a civil society.  

 

[Magox]

7 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

He should be hammering this in stark terms during the briefers.  He made mention of it yesterday but didn’t put nearly enough oomph into it.

 

it should be something like:

 

Every day Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer hold the PPP hostage is a day where millions of Americans are suffering.   This is a popular bill that has already been passed and agreed upon by both parties and now they are holding it hostage.   Americans are suffering and all Nancy and Chuck have to do is put it up for a vote and help the engine of our economy.   
 

 

He just needs to hammer this over and over and over until they feel the political wrath of the public. 

[shoshin]

24 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

I posted a few days ago that the time to get back to something near normal is when we get to a point where we wouldn't have shut down the economy in the first place. When each state or area becomes prepared enough to handle the influx of new cases then it's back to work we go. We should use precautions such as masks in crowded areas, frequent hand washing and extra precautions for the elderly or those susceptible to infection. 

 

That's what Merkel said today. And her reopening was an announcement of extreme caution that they are reopening on a knife's edge. I hope that when we reopen, we heed her caution. We may not bounce back economically once for a long time. Twice is unthinkable.

 

 

15 minutes ago, Magox said:

He should be hammering this in stark terms during the briefers.  He made mention of it yesterday but didn’t put nearly enough oomph into it.

 

it should be something like:

 

Every day Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer hold the PPP hostage is a day where millions of Americans are suffering.   This is a popular bill that has already been passed and agreed upon by both parties and now they are holding it hostage.   Americans are suffering and all Nancy and Chuck have to do is put it up for a vote and help the engine of our economy.   
 

He just needs to hammer this over and over and over until they feel the political wrath of the public. 

 

It's wrangling over something. It will pass. 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

It's wrangling over something. It will pass. 

 

 

It will.  But that's not the point.  It's a true statement to say that every day that they don't replenish the funds is a day where more businesses will permanently shudder.  So to have a blase attitude with no urgency is something that should be highlighted.  Because there is urgency involved here and businesses are at stake.

[shoshin]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

It will.  But that's not the point.  It's a true statement to say that every day that they don't replenish the funds is a day where more businesses will permanently shudder.  So to have a blase attitude with no urgency is something that should be highlighted.  Because there is urgency involved here and businesses are at stake.

 

My company is in line for the PPP money too, and it won't be enough but it will help. 

 

But when we are spending 2.3T in a few weeks time, it can take a day or two. The PPP rollout has changed multiple times since it was passed and it's being implemented in wayes the CARES act is not written. 

 

On another note, the NYS shutdown to May 15 seems like a dramatic overreaction. I know the IHME model has not been good but it's also been the best thing we have, and it shows that the health crisis will be way behind us on May 1. May 15 is waiting for it to get to near 0. We can't wait that long. Maybe in NYC they will need to but the rest of the country can't. This is the NYC projected healthcare needs.

 

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

 

My company is in line for the PPP money too, and it won't be enough but it will help. 

 

But when we are spending 2.3T in a few weeks time, it can take a day or two. The PPP rollout has changed multiple times since it was passed and it's being implemented in wayes the CARES act is not written. 

 

On another note, the NYS shutdown to May 15 seems like a dramatic overreaction. I know the IHME model has not been good but it's also been the best thing we have, and it shows that the health crisis will be way behind us on May 1. May 15 is waiting for it to get to near 0. We can't wait that long. Maybe in NYC they will need to but the rest of the country can't. This is the NYC projected healthcare needs.

 

 

 

 

I am very eager to see how things unfold.  I see how the PA. state senate passed something asking for the Democratic Governor to begin lifting the Stay-at-home order and gradually phase in the economy following CDC's eventual guidelines.   He is threatening to Veto that.

 

I have a feeling this is going to be a common theme, Democratic Governors extending stay-at-home orders and slow to restart their phase in's of the economy vs the red states.  I think this will be the next political battle field similar to what we are seeing in KY, NC and Michigan.    

 

I don't know, but my sense is that the governors who are perceived as slow and overly cautious are going to be playing a lot of defense over the next couple months.

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

 

[shoshin]

15 minutes ago, Magox said:

I don't know, but my sense is that the governors who are perceived as slow and overly cautious are going to be playing a lot of defense over the next couple months.

 

 

 

This is exactly right. 

 

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

I really hope there are specifics but I doubt there will be. Not a knock on the administration. Just that it's too early for them to have that in hand. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by shoshin

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[RochesterRob]

  Cuomo extending shutdown until May 15 per Marketwatch earlier today.

[Koko78]

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

My company is in line for the PPP money too, and it won't be enough but it will help. 

 

But when we are spending 2.3T in a few weeks time, it can take a day or two. The PPP rollout has changed multiple times since it was passed and it's being implemented in wayes the CARES act is not written. 

 

On another note, the NYS shutdown to May 15 seems like a dramatic overreaction. I know the IHME model has not been good but it's also been the best thing we have, and it shows that the health crisis will be way behind us on May 1. May 15 is waiting for it to get to near 0. We can't wait that long. Maybe in NYC they will need to but the rest of the country can't. This is the NYC projected healthcare needs.

 

 

 

I can tell you that as of yesterday, the NY Court shutdown has been extended to May 30 for most matters.

[3rdnlng]

56 minutes ago, Koko78 said:

 

I can tell you that as of yesterday, the NY Court shutdown has been extended to May 30 for most matters.

I'm not sure I understand why the government entities have to decide today what's going to happen 4-6 weeks from now. One would think that they would follow things closely enough that they could keep extending the shutdown by a week or two if needed. Again, I guess they could be trying to lower expectations. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

I'm not sure I understand why the government entities have to decide today what's going to happen 4-6 weeks from now. One would think that they would follow things closely enough that they could keep extending the shutdown by a week or two if needed. Again, I guess they could be trying to lower expectations. 

 

 

...because you're trying to rationalize with common sense.......flatly refuse to politicize the decision making process re-opening which should be at the states level....what is the priority of politicians at the top state level and down in making re-opening decisions?.....is the fear factor tempered by their re-election being affected  or the infection/death toll in their state?....which do you think is their priority?.....is there a "wait and see" position as far as "let's see what our neighboring state(s) do ?......a/k/a "who wants to go first?".....