longtimebillsfan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Share Posted March 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, White Linen said: That's not what was said. He said if we get to x point offensively it'll firmly put us in the conversation as a top 10 team. We already are. Got it. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicken Boo Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Hebert19 said: Dont care. Win baby. If he does what it takes to get us 10 to 12 wins and into the playoffs I could care less about stats. Matt ryan and matt Stafford have nice stats. Hows that working out for then. If Josh remains in the bottom 5 of numerous statistical categories, chances are we won't get much further than simply making the playoffs. The goal is a Super Bowl victory. So while your original take is a sane one, I couldn't care less about "12 wins". He needs to be able to play well enough to win a Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said: Unless he stops playing like a one man gang he'll not reach his potential and neither will the team. The reason you mention, intact offense with one big exception (Diggs) and soon to be chosen complementary RB is the exact reason why the pressure is indeed on Josh Allen. He has one season to prove it or the team is going to be forced to bring in competition in 2021. He is either going to command big bucks or he won't and Beane needs to know by the end of the 2020 season. I think you really underestimate how much Beane and McD think of Allen. This is not a make or break year for him IMO. If guys like Tannehill, Winston, and Mariota get their full rookie deals, then Allen will too. I truly believe Beane and McD are fully committed to him. They truly believe that he can be developed and already possesses traits that can’t be taught. I think those traits are what drew them to him in the first place. It just so happens that he has a winning record in two seasons working with an incomplete offense. Let’s see what he does with good, seasoned players. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said: If Josh remains in the bottom 5 of numerous statistical categories, chances are we won't get much further than simply making the playoffs. The goal is a Super Bowl victory. So while your original take is a sane one, I couldn't care less about "12 wins". He needs to be able to play well enough to win a Super Bowl. Bottom 5 of which 'numerous' statistical categories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Bottom 5 of which 'numerous' statistical categories? #crickets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 (edited) Get a grip, he's the QB they are going to build around. He pretty much just has to maintain and kinda exhibit that he is getting some modicum of "veteran seasoning", and he is the guy...they won't draft or trade to replace him. Unless he falls apart this season AND the next, he ain't going anywhere. Edited March 23, 2020 by 32ABBA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 It would help if pass catcher's would simply help their QB out by catching balls they should catrch. Dawson Knox.....who I think is a stud......is one o the main culprits of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, 32ABBA said: Get a grip, he's the QB they are going to build around. He pretty much just has to maintain and kinda exhibit that he is getting some modicum of "veteran seasoning", and he is the guy...they won't draft or trade to replace him. Unless he falls apart this season AND the next, he ain't going anywhere. I totally agree. It’s foolish to think Beane and McD are going to give up on him and hit the reset at the position unless he totally melts down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 such a fresh scent, right here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 hour ago, whorlnut said: You brought up Brady. While Allen isn’t as refined, he has that burning desire to be great like Brady. I just don’t see that with all the other young QBs. Most of them seem to be satisfied with just being in the league. Allen really couldn’t care about anything less than wins. That’s got to speak for something. Who do you think this applies to when you say "other young QBs"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 hours ago, GoBills808 said: You understand the concept of stats right...I'm adjusting for average. Some had more than average, some had less. Allen had a lot more than average You don't seem to get it. Go adjust each teams completion percentage by the number of drops. The Bills were still bottom 5. Unless you only want to adjust for the passes Bills receivers dropped, and not the ones other teams dropped, what you're saying doesn't make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBillsFan Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Bottom 5 of which 'numerous' statistical categories? Fumbles Completion % Yards per game Yards TDs thrown per game QB Rating (RTG) bottom 3rd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 hours ago, GoBills808 said: Keep in mind his first idea was that 'QBs are the new RB!' Never mind that the entire concept of professional football, past present and future, stands in opposition to this moment of clarity The entire concept of professional football is incredibly flawed. The bust rate for first round QBs is well above 50%. You're acting as though the NFL has a solid track record when evaluating, drafting and paying big money to Quarterbacks. That couldn't be farther from the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longtimebillsfan Posted March 23, 2020 Author Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 hours ago, TuelTime said: How much would you pay Josh Allen if he were a FA today? 10, 15, 20 mil a year?? Russell Wilson gets 35 a year, Tom Brady just got 25, and Tyrod and Fitz are at 5.5. He already makes 5.2 a year so I doubt he would take less than that, but in your most objective opinion, how much do you think Josh Allen is worth? How many years and how much guaranteed? Teddy Bridgewater just got 21 million a year.. Has Josh shown enough yet to be worth more than Bridgewater? I would think Allen is at the Bridgewater level with much higher ceiling. At least Josh is durable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: Fumbles Completion % Yards per game Yards TDs thrown per game QB Rating (RTG) bottom 3rd Passing TDs are up.....he is a multi thread so you have to count Running TDs does that go into your bull#### math? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 Just now, jrober38 said: You don't seem to get it. Go adjust each teams completion percentage by the number of drops. The Bills were still bottom 5. Unless you only want to adjust for the passes Bills receivers dropped, and not the ones other teams dropped, what you're saying doesn't make sense. 62.2% adjusted comp, not bottom 5 when rest of league adjusted for drops as well. but lol I'm not getting it...give us those bottom 5 categories again lmaoooooooooo 2 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: Fumbles Completion % Yards per game Yards TDs thrown per game QB Rating (RTG) bottom 3rd Trying too hard chief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBillsFan Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: Passing TDs are up.....he is a multi thread so you have to count Running TDs does that go into your bull#### math? No one was arguing if they were up. Facts are stubborn things and yes he was bottom 5 for thrown TDs so work on that ol' readin' comprehension Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrober38 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: 62.2% adjusted comp, not bottom 5 when rest of league adjusted for drops as well. but lol I'm not getting it...give us those bottom 5 categories again lmaoooooooooo I've yet to see any data that breaks down when passes were dropped so I have to go off team completion percentage. Josh threw 90% of our passes this year and I'll use the Washington Post's stats for drops by team. I can't see how many passes each QB had dropped. Adjusting for drops the Bills completed 63.4% of their passes. 299 of 513 becomes 325 of 513. The only teams lower than that were Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa (62.2%), and Detroit (62.5%). Teams that winded up just higher were Miami (64.9%), Carolina (63.9%), Indy (63.5%). Any way you slice it it was bad. None of those teams had a passing game that anyone would consider "good" a year ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: No one was arguing if they were up. Facts are stubborn things and yes he was bottom 5 for thrown TDs so work on that ol' readin' comprehension He was tied for 21st w/Murray and Fitz for TD passes. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBillsFan Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Trying too hard chief Maybe he's #1 in completion % if we factor in the sun in his eyes too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 33 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: such a fresh scent, right here.... This one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Who do you think this applies to when you say "other young QBs"? I think Mayfield is a complete head case who has a massive chip on his shoulder. To me, all he cares about is being a rock star. Darnold just seems like he is in a constant daze and overwhelmed. He has the talent, but I don’t know if he has the killer instinct. We all know about Rosen and his entitled personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBillsFan Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: He was tied for 21st w/Murray and Fitz for TD passes. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm Per game not total TDs. He's bottom 5 unless you want to compare him to Mason Rudolph with 10 games. Trying too hard chief hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, jrober38 said: I've yet to see any data that breaks down when passes were dropped so I have to go off team completion percentage. Josh threw 90% of our passes this year and I'll use the Washington Post's stats for drops by team. I can't see how many passes each QB had dropped. Adjusting for drops the Bills completed 63.4% of their passes. 299 of 513 becomes 325 of 513. The only teams lower than that were Cincinnati, Cleveland, Tampa (62.2%), and Detroit (62.5%). Teams that winded up just higher were Miami (64.9%), Carolina (63.9%), Indy (63.5%). Any way you slice it it was bad. None of those teams had a passing game that anyone would consider "good" a year ago. You can’t see the data? We’ve posted it about 200 times for you: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm Josh Allen—7.2% drop rate; by FAR the highest in the league. And normalizing stats doesn’t mean you remove all the drops; it means you compare QBs based upon the average number of drops. But don’t bother; there’s already a stat for what you want to know, it’s called on-target %age. Allen was 21st...otherwise known by some stubborn folks as “bottom 5” in a 32-team league ? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, KD in CA said: This one? At least that turd can still give off an odor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, BigBillsFan said: Per game not total TDs. He's bottom 5 unless you want to compare him to Mason Rudolph with 10 games. Trying too hard chief hahaha Let me guess you're using 16 as the number of games Allen played in lmao Of course you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelingOnYouboty Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 I’d be very disappointed if his 2020 season looks like 2019. He needs to make another big jump this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 27 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: No one was arguing if they were up. Facts are stubborn things and yes he was bottom 5 for thrown TDs so work on that ol' readin' comprehension Reading comp is fine...….you need to understand what type of QB you have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 42 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said: No one was arguing if they were up. Facts are stubborn things and yes he was bottom 5 for thrown TDs so work on that ol' readin' comprehension In what universe is 23rd “bottom 5” in a 32-team league? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm I swear it’s like people just throw ? at the wall and hope nobody notices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: In what universe is 23rd “bottom 5” in a 32-team league? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm I swear it’s like people just throw ? at the wall and hope nobody notices He changed it to 'per game TDs thrown' immediately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, GoBills808 said: He changed it to 'per game TDs thrown' immediately Why per-game? Why not go with straight TD% since some teams throw less than others? I’ll handle this one: because Allen ranked 18th in TD%, and that’s not bottom-5, so it’s it out because reasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 1 minute ago, thebandit27 said: Why per-game? Why not go with straight TD% since some teams throw less than others? I’ll handle this one: because Allen ranked 18th in TD%, and that’s not bottom-5, so it’s it out because reasons. You know exactly why...this thread is full of people just outright fabricating statistics to try to argue a point. Once those are disproven, they try to invent new ones that aren't relevant. Feels like the football IQ of this place is dropping rapidly...probably should have left this one alone smdh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: You know exactly why...this thread is full of people just outright fabricating statistics to try to argue a point. Once those are disproven, they try to invent new ones that aren't relevant. Feels like the football IQ of this place is dropping rapidly...probably should have left this one alone smdh I don’t understand why people are more interested in proving a point than actual analysis, but I suppose that’s nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 41 minutes ago, whorlnut said: I think Mayfield is a complete head case who has a massive chip on his shoulder. To me, all he cares about is being a rock star. Darnold just seems like he is in a constant daze and overwhelmed. He has the talent, but I don’t know if he has the killer instinct. We all know about Rosen and his entitled personality. So I think Rosen ***** hates losing. He hasn't always gone about it the right way in Miami but I think he wants to win. Mayfield is as competitive a human being as you can come across and I don't agree on Darnold either. Didn't he help rally a 1-7 team to a 7-9 finish? Doesn't sound like a guy who lacks competitiveness to me. I think it is very easy for fans to point at pro sports people and say "they don't care" but it's rarely true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayray808 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 make the easy plays, keep being the God of 3rd and long, and hit a deep ball once in awhile - he does that and he is a top 3 QB in this league with our defense PS - I love him (in a Gerard Butler voice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 I mean....if the OP would have said something like "the team doesn't go 10 and 6 without a dominating defense helping out a poor offense......I mean who could argue with that.....but now......gotta point that hate at Josh Allen......throwing numbers at the wall to see what sticks......I say that we DONT go 10 and 6 without Josh Allen.....who also had a fair amount of game winning drives How a about this Needs to stop fumbling Needs to start throwing deep balls closer to his receivers and let them fight for it instead of overthrowing it Got much better at throwing the ball away Short game greatl improved Better decision making.....less throws into coverage STAYED IN THE POCKET MORE.....much less taking off and running last year.....learning to be a QB Career years for his two top wide receivers A completely revamped offensive line But all in all.....improvement....ppl need to understand just how raw he was coming out...….the bust rate for QBs.....the lack of offensive weapons.....all of these things need to go into the equation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gobills404 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 This may be a lazy take, but if Allen cleans up his deep ball even to point it was at his rookie year then both his volume stats and efficiency stats (per attempt) would most likely improve significantly considering how often he throws deep. Just watching him play his deep ball is the only thing that really jumps out as being poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I don’t understand why people are more interested in proving a point than actual analysis, but I suppose that’s nothing new. imo any reasonable analysis has him anywhere in that 23rd-18th range lots to work on, obviously, but the 'bottom 5' stuff is just pure nonsense 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whorlnut Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: So I think Rosen ***** hates losing. He hasn't always gone about it the right way in Miami but I think he wants to win. Mayfield is as competitive a human being as you can come across and I don't agree on Darnold either. Didn't he help rally a 1-7 team to a 7-9 finish? Doesn't sound like a guy who lacks competitiveness to me. I think it is very easy for fans to point at pro sports people and say "they don't care" but it's rarely true. Allen comes from a small town golly gee upbringing. The rest of those guys (except maybe Mayfield) have always had the spotlight and fanfare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted March 23, 2020 Share Posted March 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: So I think Rosen ***** hates losing. He hasn't always gone about it the right way in Miami but I think he wants to win. Mayfield is as competitive a human being as you can come across and I don't agree on Darnold either. Didn't he help rally a 1-7 team to a 7-9 finish? Doesn't sound like a guy who lacks competitiveness to me. I think it is very easy for fans to point at pro sports people and say "they don't care" but it's rarely true. I don't think that its "don't care: so much as they don't know what to do when things don't go their way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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