PFF's QB Annual Report on Allen

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Those are just ranked ahead of Josh Allen on their end of season QB rankings. Also, Tannehill is ranked 4th overall by them. But he had a pretty nice run.

I could argue some of those guys did have better years but Flacco and Duck are pretty awful.  Probably should check those numbers again if Duck isn’t last on your list. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Not sure what the policy is in terms of pasting premium content, so I'm going to hold off on pasting the entire thing, but PFF released their QB Annual Report today with roughly 10 pages of content for each QB. Some of the main takeaways for Allen:

 

1. His improvement this year as a passer showed up in literally every passer rating category that they track. Passer rating when kept clean improved from 79.8 to 95.2. Passer rating with no blitz improved from 70.1 to 89.6. Passer rating under pressure improved from 47.4 to 60.5. Passer rating when blitzed improved from 62.9 to 78.0. Passer rating on 3rd down improved from 49 to 92.8. Passer rating in the red zone improved from 75.8 to 95.8. 
2. Having said that, the improvement did not show up in terms of PFF's Accuracy metrics. Last year, he hit the WR's frame on 53.7% of his passes; that dropped to 53.0% this year. Last year, he threw a catchable ball on 73.5% of his passes; that number didn't move at all this season (though confusingly, they also track "on target %" and they show Allen improving from 64.7% as a rookie to 71.7% this season). There are some improvements to be seen when you break it down by pass distance though. In terms of hitting the WR's frame, Rookie Allen was 3.2% worse than the average QB on passes behind the line of scrimmage, 3.5% worse on 0-9 yard passes, 3.9% worse on 10-19 yard passes, and 8.2% worse on 20+ yard passes. This year's Allen was 2.1% better on passes behind the line of scrimmage, 5.5% worse on 0-9 yard passes, 6.4% better on 10-19 yard passes, and 20.6% worse on 20+ yard passes. So all in all, he was legitimately good on the screens/swings and intermediate passes this year, but was bad on the 0-9 yard passes and ungodly terrible on deep balls. PFF has found that the shorter stuff is generally more stable year over year, whereas the deep ball comes and goes; based on that, they believe Allen's overall gains this year are pretty promising for his future projection.
3. Route distribution was more or less the same as it was a year ago. There wasn't really any movement in terms of which routes Allen threw more of in Year 2 as compared to Year 1.
4. Having said that, the routes seemed to be pulled in shorter this year; 51% of his passes as a rookie were within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage versus 62% this year. That resulted in his average depth of target decreasing from 11.5 yards as a rookie to 9.8 yards this year.
5. In his rookie year, 6.8% of his targeted passes were dropped. This season, that number increased to 7.1%, so that's obviously disappointing. A breakdown of each receiver:
   1. John Brown: 2.8%
   2. Cole Beasley: 6.3%
   3. Dawson Knox: 18.4%
   4. Devin Singletary: 13.2%
   5. Isaiah McKenzie: 2.9%

Edit: Staying away from the PFF Grades that are included since people seem to very much not be fans of their grades lol, but the grades remain mostly very bad, though there was some improvement in areas.

 

Allens "accuracy" this year was substantially dragged down by the deep misses over 30.  It was so poor there, that it really affected his overall accuracy numbers.  But he was a lot more accurate this year than last in other parts of the field IMO.  

Edited January 28, 2020 by Alphadawg7

[MJS]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I could argue some of those guys did have better years but Flacco and Duck are pretty awful.  Probably should check those numbers again if Duck isn’t last on your list. 

They didn't include Hodges in the end of season ranking, but they gave him great grades in the weeks leading up to the Bills game.

 

I don't think Allen deserves anything more than average grades, but he shouldn't be ranked as the 28th QB in the league. He's better than that.

[Alphadawg7]

27 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

 

There were many times he came close to losing fumbles, or generally carried the ball in a way it could be easily knocked away. 

 

This is true for all QB's even the greats...there are many times they should have thrown a pick or lost a fumble but didn't for whatever reason.  So lets not pretend this is unique to Josh as if its a monster problem.

 

Most importantly, after the NE game...Josh put up 21 TD's (second most in NFL behind only Lamar) and just 3 Turnovers over that span.  He certainly got a LOT better protecting the ball after learning some hard lessons early in the season.  

 

And like someone pointed out, not too shabby for a 2nd year QB...who also saw the Bills drop the most passes in the NFL and was saddled with a top 3 WR group made up of receivers 5'11", 5'8" and 5'8" tall (and only 2 of them are really worthy of being top 3 guys on any team).  

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is true for all QB's even the greats...there are many times they should have thrown a pick or lost a fumble but didn't for whatever reason.  So lets not pretend this is unique to Josh as if its a monster problem.

 

Most importantly, after the NE game...Josh put up 21 TD's (second most in NFL behind only Lamar) and just 3 Turnovers over that span.  He certainly got a LOT better protecting the ball after learning some hard lessons early in the season.  

 

And like someone pointed out, not too shabby for a 2nd year QB...who also saw the Bills drop the most passes in the NFL and was saddled with a top 3 WR group made up of receivers 5'11", 5'8" and 5'8" tall (and only 2 of them are really worthy of being top 3 guys on any team).  

Honestly, this year should tell us one way or another.  On paper, it is a much, much tougher schedule.  What I want to see is if the defense slips, and given the competition, it may, Allen carry this team.  I still have some questions about that.  He has shown flashes but never consistently.  

[GreggTX]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

They didn't include Hodges in the end of season ranking, but they gave him great grades in the weeks leading up to the Bills game.

 

I don't think Allen deserves anything more than average grades, but he shouldn't be ranked as the 28th QB in the league. He's better than that.

 

I agree Allen is average overall, but that's only when you factor in his elite open field running. I just hope his ability as a passer takes a huge leap in terms of his mental game because I don't see his accuracy getting considerably better. There is hope, but I really wish we had a top 3 passing QB.

[123719bwiqrb]

2 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

People only remember the circus catches and the stiff arms.

 

He was NOT GOOD this year.

I liked what I saw out of Sweeney vs the Jets.  I'd like to see what he can do long term.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, GreggTX said:

 

I agree Allen is average overall, but that's only when you factor in his elite open field running. I just hope his ability as a passer takes a huge leap in terms of his mental game because I don't see his accuracy getting considerably better. There is hope, but I really wish we had a top 3 passing QB.

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem at all. He can whip the ball around with the best of them and can be pin point accurate. His problem is decision making and taking what the defense gives him. Completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, ScotSHO said:

I liked what I saw out of Sweeney vs the Jets.  I'd like to see what he can do long term.

 

Sweeny - and not Kroft - should have been the other tight end on the field with Knox.

 

I haven't lost faith in Knox.  I love the kid.  But he has to catch passes that touch his hands and/or chest.  100% of them.

 

Kroft is a worthless piece of *****.

[DCOrange]

13 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem at all. He can whip the ball around with the best of them and can be pin point accurate. His problem is decision making and taking what the defense gives him. Completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.

He definitely is not as accurate as most other starting QBs. I do think the mental side of things is a larger issue at this point though. I think he’s accurate enough to be a good QB if he gets the reads and decisions right.

 

Definitely hope to see him improve the deep ball though. I don’t need it to be good or even necessarily average, but it has to be at least a part of his game. This past season it was not. 

[JoPoy88]

18 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem at all. He can whip the ball around with the best of them and can be pin point accurate. His problem is decision making and taking what the defense gives him. Completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.

his deep ball accuracy is most definitely a problem. there is no decision making deficiency in correctly identifying a wide open receiver who has gotten behind the entire defense and proceeding to overthrow him by 5 yards. That’s leaving points on the field and that’s a problem.
 

Short and intermediate accuracy to both the sidelines and middle of the field though was much, much improved from his rookie year. 

[transplantbillsfan]

The drop percentage is both disgusting and encouraging moving forward.

 

Disgusting because they both had very high drop percentages and the 2 of them combined for nearly 20% of Allen's total passes this year.

 

Encouraging because they're both rookies and I'll attribute the excessive dropsies to the rookie yips.  

 

I think both will be better moving forward.  I'm particularly excited about Knox once he learns how to hold onto the football.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

He definitely is not as accurate as most other starting QBs. I do think the mental side of things is a larger issue at this point though. I think he’s accurate enough to be a good QB if he gets the reads and decisions right.

 

Definitely hope to see him improve the deep ball though. I don’t need it to be good or even necessarily average, but it has to be at least a part of his game. This past season it was not. 

That's bull.

[Da webster guy]

5 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

That drop % for Knox is disgusting. 

 

it sure is.   it basically rounds out to dropping one out of every 5 passes.

 

Oddly, he had our best two catches of the year in terms of difficulty, but he will be out of football if he doesn't cut that number in half.   

Remember, he never caught any passes in college, the only real film we have on him is what he's done since he's been here, and he dropped quite a few in camp too.  More than anyone else for the practices I saw.

[Billl]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem at all. He can whip the ball around with the best of them and can be pin point accurate. His problem is decision making and taking what the defense gives him. Completion percentage is not a measure of accuracy.

So what inaccurate QBs have high completion percentages?  What other accurate passers but finished dead last in the league in completion percentage in consecutive seasons?

Edited January 29, 2020 by Billl

[Mat68]

Imo, PFF put some of those Qbs above Allen to click bait Bills fans.  Allen was the 2nd best Qb out of his draft class last year.  He looks poised to make a leap in year 3.  

[Stank_Nasty]

7 hours ago, DCOrange said:

My personal opinion is that their stats are undeniably helpful and interesting. Their grades are much, much more debatable. And in general, Bills fans seem to think higher of their players than PFF does.

They ranked FIRST TEAM ALL PRO Tre white the 19th overall corner in the league. It’s not just bills fans that seem to think higher of some of our players. Basically everyone else on the planet saw a better player in white than what PFF saw. 
 

how can somebody see that ranking and doing anything but laugh? It’s really hard to take that seriously. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

52 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Imo, PFF put some of those Qbs above Allen to click bait Bills fans.  Allen was the 2nd best Qb out of his draft class last year.  He looks poised to make a leap in year 3.  

 

Nah, they don't care enough about Bills fans.  They honestly believe in their stuff.

 

 

[DCOrange]

10 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

They ranked FIRST TEAM ALL PRO Tre white the 19th overall corner in the league. It’s not just bills fans that seem to think higher of some of our players. Basically everyone else on the planet saw a better player in white than what PFF saw. 
 

how can somebody see that ranking and doing anything but laugh? It’s really hard to take that seriously. 

Sure but that’s one player. They’re ranking thousands of players; of course people will disagree with some rankings. 

[LSHMEAB]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I know, right? 

 

Especially considering it's very consistent (edit: actually, PFR and NFL stats are worse - a full 20% drops!) between different stat sites that score drops a bit differently - and that it just includes drops, not "catches top TE make routinely but I don't" or "route variations where I didn't provide clear enough body language to let Josh know which I was running" or "totally whiffed blocks that got my QB plastered" (I grant him that asking a rook to block an all pro isn't all on him that it didn't work)

 

I like Knox, I really do.  I want to see him be the Beast that he shows the potential to become.  But I also want to see the Bills not "bet" the TE situation "rent" on Knox, Sweeney, Kroft, or Croom because maybe one or more of them will step up and improve next year - or maybe they won't.

I wouldn't bet the farm, but there is a very good chance Knox can cut down on that drop rate considering he's relatively inexperienced as a pass catcher. He's got big play ability and "explosiveness," something the offense is severely lacking. Brown has top end speed, but explosive? Not so sure. It's such a cliche, but many of the Knox drops were just a matter of turning upfield before securing the ball.

 

The drops with Knox were almost entirely on Knox. As far as Singletary's drop rate, I'm going to have to place some of the blame on Allen. He was much, much better in the short/intermediate game, but he still wasn't particularly good at throwing dumpoffs/screens right on target. Considering Singletary also has very limited experience as a receiver, I'm not overly concerned.