The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[Chef Jim]

3 hours ago, Gene Frenkle said:

 

That's like half the country.

Good. Herd needs a good culling. 

52 minutes ago, BillStime said:

 

 

Apples and oranges. Again you have no clue what PPP was do you?  

[Big Blitz]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

It spares the young but they can be carriers.

 

 

The science has said the opposite (and I wasn't comparing viruses I was commenting on future alarmism) 

 

School kids don’t appear to transmit the new coronavirus to peers or teachers, a French study found, weighing in on the crucial topic of children’s role in propagating Covid-19.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/school-children-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows

 

 

Schools should be full normal. 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by Big Blitz

[Doc Brown]

11 hours ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

Do you honestly believe it's a fight that can be won?

 

I don't see it. What we're going to see is what the media is driving: the scary COVID numbers borne through increased testing will shut everyone down again. People will be out of work. Unemployment jumps. Economy schitts the bed. They blame all of it on Trump. Biden wins, Dems take House and Senate, and America spends the next four years lunging toward the socialist state, while defunding police, until people are too afraid to do anything other than lay low and stay home.

 

So I hate to admit, but the biggest bullhorn wins this, and the left owns the biggest bullhorn. The country is burnt toast. It's time to fend for yourself and hope you live long enought to get to see the looks on the leftists faces when they realize they've turned the US into Venezuela.

Yes.  The guy who helped pass the crime bill (he'll pry increase police funding), invade Iraq, took money from bank lobbyists for over 40 years, and helped pass a national version of Romneycare will lead us to us being Venezuala.  Give me a break. Bernie Sanders was rightfully rejected during the primaries just like McGovern was walloped in the '72 election to help bring an end to the hippie jam festival.  We're still a center right country and will remain that way. 

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

The science has said the opposite (and I wasn't comparing viruses I was commenting on future alarmism) 

 

School kids don’t appear to transmit the new coronavirus to peers or teachers, a French study found, weighing in on the crucial topic of children’s role in propagating Covid-19.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-23/school-children-don-t-spread-coronavirus-french-study-shows

 

 

Schools should be full normal. 

 

 

I agree that all elementary schools should be open with little precautions based on the available evidence (teachers may be hesitant given elementary schools are usually germ breeding grounds for colds and seasonal flu).  A little more cautious approach should pry be taken for middle and high schools.  Here's a decent breakdown about what we know so far about schools reopening in other countries.

 

You quoted a college football program though and college kids seem spread the virus just as efficiently as the rest of us.

[Big Blitz]

23 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Yes.  The guy who helped pass the crime bill (he'll pry increase police funding), invade Iraq, took money from bank lobbyists for over 40 years, and helped pass a national version of Romneycare will lead us to us being Venezuala.  Give me a break. Bernie Sanders was rightfully rejected during the primaries just like McGovern was walloped in the '72 election to help bring an end to the hippie jam festival.  We're still a center right country and will remain that way. 

I agree that all elementary schools should be open with little precautions based on the available evidence (teachers may be hesitant given elementary schools are usually germ breeding grounds for colds and seasonal flu).  A little more cautious approach should pry be taken for middle and high schools.  Here's a decent breakdown about what we know so far about schools reopening in other countries.

 

You quoted a college football program though and college kids seem spread the virus just as efficiently as the rest of us.

 

 

If I'm in charge that's what I'd do.

 

K-8 full normal.  

 

High school slow reopen with plan to go full normal mid year.  I'd lesson classroom time....if you have a school that does 90 minute blocks, they need to end.  45 minutes.  In, out.  Find a way to get half the kids in the building to see their teachers each day they are in.  

[shoshin]

9 hours ago, Magox said:

 

People are nearly fully out in New York City, Italy, France, Belgium, Sweden and the U.K. and they were all hard hit and they seem to have hit that “burn out” level and are showing no signs of increased infections. 
 

 

PA back on the rise.

 

The reason they can resume normalcy in those countries and Canada is likely less because they got to herd immunity (in most of those countries, the outbreaks were geographically pretty limited) than because their cases are now so incredibly low. They had a unified plan: serious shutdown, slow reopen, complaint masking and distancing, etc. They did what we wouldn't. We are trying a different plan with long term consequences TBD but at 900 new deaths per day recently. 

 

Quote

Same goes for Boston, New Jersey and Connecticut.  The infections have plummeted and no signs of re-emerging.

 

The places that are most risk of increased infections are the places that haven’t burnt out and ironically the hottest temperatures. 

 

 

 

NJ has been in the top 5 in deaths almost every day this week. I can't find any report or data to suggest a data dump but given the low cases, it has to be but I can't back that up. Someone in the media is not digging in on this. The rest are the places you'd expect with the overburdened hospitals and cases that won't go away, and that are starting to consider shutdowns and enacting them again. 

 

Overall, we have gone from 500 and less deaths per day to nearly 1000 in a week--that is some jump.

 

 

Newsome never thumped his chest on CA's success. Can't say the same for DeSantis and Abbott. 

 

Was this avoidable with a single plan (see most EU countries), consistent messaging on masks and distancing, and idiots not making defeating Covid into a party-driven war? 

 

Imagine, if you will, making defeating a disease about party politics. This special kind of idiocy is something you can see play out, right here, daily, on The Twilight Zone a football discussion board.

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[shoshin]

Simple science. Good title to this series: It's okay to be Smart.

 

 

 

He has an episode on vaccines too but I don't want to be too extreme. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

PA back on the rise.

 

The reason they can resume normalcy in those countries and Canada is likely less because they got to herd immunity (in most of those countries, the outbreaks were geographically pretty limited) than because their cases are now so incredibly low. They had a unified plan: serious shutdown, slow reopen, complaint masking and distancing, etc. They did what we wouldn't. We are trying a different plan with long term consequences TBD but at 900 new deaths per day recently. 

 

 

NJ has been in the top 5 in deaths almost every day this week. I can't find any report or data to suggest a data dump but given the low cases, it has to be but I can't back that up. Someone in the media is not digging in on this. The rest are the places you'd expect with the overburdened hospitals and cases that won't go away, and that are starting to consider shutdowns and enacting them again. 

 

Overall, we have gone from 500 and less deaths per day to nearly 1000 in a week--that is some jump.

 

 

Newsome never thumped his chest on CA's success. Can't say the same for DeSantis and Abbott. 

 

Was this avoidable with a single plan (see most EU countries), consistent messaging on masks and distancing, and idiots not making defeating Covid into a party-driven war? 

 

Imagine, if you will, making defeating a disease about party politics. This special kind of idiocy is something you can see play out, right here, daily, on The Twilight Zone a football discussion board.

 

A) I didn’t mention Pennsylvania

B) New Jersey is seeing no jump up to this point in new cases which indicates the deaths are coming from backlog and older patients (who they have done a terrible job of protecting) that have been hospitalized for months.  

3) we haven’t gone from 500-1000 a day.  You have to look at 7 day moving average and it’s around 600.   Which is what I predicted.  I predicted we would bottom out at around 500 over a month ago and that is EXACTLY where it bottomed out.  I also said two weeks ago that I thought this was the week we would see it increase which it was.  That trend will continue to go higher for the next 4-6 weeks Before it begins to head down.  We will see if that plays out.

4) You don’t understand how this country works.  The only way that you can enforce a “national plan” is by breaking the constitution in which states would be able to challenge it in court.  This is just a bunch of hand wringing from someone who buys into what the media’s hysteria.   That’s what you do, you buy into media panic porn and everything they tell you.   Maybe you can try to critically think for yourself once in a while.  
5). Poor naive shoshin.  Doesn’t believe that the whole hysteria from the media isn’t politically driven.  

[123719bwiqrb]

1 hour ago, shoshin said:

Simple science. Good title to this series: It's okay to be Smart.

 

 

 

He has an episode on vaccines too but I don't want to be too extreme. 

 

Simple question - When do we stop wearing them?  If everyone wears them to infinity, we could save maybe half the 30-60k a year that die from the standard flu, right?  

[shoshin]

5 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

Simple question - When do we stop wearing them?  If everyone wears them to infinity, we could save maybe half the 30-60k a year that die from the standard flu, right?  

 

My feeling: How about when we feel confident that hospitals won't be overburdened. We see what's happening in the south. We see cases rising in many NE states. So let's keep trying to keep cases down for a bit. Some areas have been masking for what, 10 weeks so far? Others have barely even started masking. We have had seriously mixed messaging from leadership on masking with a lot of people only coming on board once their states got hit in the last couple of weeks. (Until recently, there were several posters here still saying masks are useless!)

 

And after that, maybe we will be a touch more like Japan and people might be inclined to wear them during worse flu outbreaks. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

Even though I do believe masks help, they certainly aren't the end-all-be-all.

Los Angeles has had the mask mandate since June 18th and Los Angeles county is home of one of the worst if not worst viral infection outbreaks in the country.   This is a folly to believe that masks are THE solution.    

 

When you strip away all the panic porn from the media and their hysterical followers who parrot what they say, the virus is about on par with the common flu for the vast majority of the population.  It sucks that the Virus got here from a country that covered this up, but we are where we are.  Normalization of life has to return, the costs of doing so from both a public health and economic standpoint are much greater than the risks of the Virus itself.  We just have to learn to live with it.   

 

[123719bwiqrb]

10 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

My feeling: How about when we feel confident that hospitals won't be overburdened. We see what's happening in the south. We see cases rising in many NE states. So let's keep trying to keep cases down for a bit. Some areas have been masking for what, 10 weeks so far? Others have barely even started masking. We have had seriously mixed messaging from leadership on masking with a lot of people only coming on board once their states got hit in the last couple of weeks. (Until recently, there were several posters here still saying masks are useless!)

 

And after that, maybe we will be a touch more like Japan and people might be inclined to wear them during worse flu outbreaks. 

 

Fair enough.  They seem to be working in NYS right now. 

 

I just don't ever see them going away, too many airborne threats identified in the world now.  Kind of like wearing your seat belt.

[shoshin]

16 minutes ago, Magox said:

Even though I do believe masks help, they certainly aren't the end-all-be-all.

Los Angeles has had the mask mandate since June 18th and Los Angeles county is home of one of the worst if not worst viral infection outbreaks in the country.   This is a folly to believe that masks are THE solution.    

 

June 18...3 weeks ago June 18? I can't believe it didn't have a HUGE impact in 3 weeks!

 

Quote

 

When you strip away all the panic porn from the media and their hysterical followers who parrot what they say, the virus is about on par with the common flu for the vast majority of the population.  It sucks that the Virus got here from a country that covered this up, but we are where we are.  Normalization of life has to return, the costs of doing so from both a public health and economic standpoint are much greater than the risks of the Virus itself.  We just have to learn to live with it.   

 

 

It is not on par with the common flu unless you maybe believe only in case fatality once contacted (and even there it is more fatal in most studies). It spreads much easier so total fatalities and % hospitalized are much, much higher ESPECIALLY among older and at risk people.

 

"On par with the common flu for the vast majority of the population" is one of the dumbest things you could say. There are over 50 million Americans age 65 or older. And I don't know how many others have the many other risk factors but certainly tens of millions if you include obesity and hypertension. 

 

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[Kemp]

The pandemic has only been with us for 6 months. 

 

Stop blaming Trump for not having a national policy, yet.

 

He has been very busy whining and tweeting.

 

If everyone would only say nice things about him, we could finally start beating the virus.

[shoshin]

17 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

Fair enough.  They seem to be working in NYS right now. 

 

I think the lockdown worked more than the masks to lower cases, and lowering cases leads to less cases. But masks clearly help too.

 

17 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

I just don't ever see them going away, too many airborne threats identified in the world now.  Kind of like wearing your seat belt.

 

I hate them so I won't be wearing them one more minute than makes sense and/or is required. 

[SoCal Deek]

Shosin has started showing the same death chart I’ve been quoting and summarizing for weeks/months now. It’s appreciated! So....I could give my usual daily tally but I won’t. My observation is a simple one: the virus, which is passed from person to person, has obviously moved from the NE to the SW corner of the country. Much like a cold front on a weather map. It’s definitely NOT random. And it’s definitely NOT linked to politics. As others have cited, the outlier is New Jersey but again it’s an outlier.

The nonsense you read about Trump’s Tulsa rally is nonsense. The nonsense you used to read about how great California was doing was, nonsense. The nonsense about this being a second wave is nonsense. The virus is doing exactly what contagious viruses do. And I’m guessing it would have done it sooner had the country not stopped virtually all domestic air travel. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by SoCal Deek

[123719bwiqrb]

9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Shosin has started showing the same death chart I’ve been quoting and summarizing for weeks/months now. It’s appreciated! So....I could give my usual daily tally but I won’t. My observation is a simple one: the virus, which is passed from person to person, has obviously moved from the NE to the SW corner of the country. Much like a cold front on a weather map. It’s definitely NOT random. And it’s definitely NOT linked to politics. As others have cited, the outlier is New Jersey but again it’s an outlier.

The nonsense you read about Trump’s Tulsa rally is nonsense. The nonsense you used to read about how great California was doing was, nonsense. The nonsense about this being a second wave is nonsense. The virus is doing exactly what contagious viruses do. And I’m guessing it would have done it sooner had the country not stopped virtually all domestic air travel. 

 

I agree, you guys are posting good stuff.  I give people gruff about inconsistencies in their thinking, but things change fast and it''s hard to know who you can trust.

 

Ultimately, we will achieve those evil words (herd immunity).  I'd guess it will still circulate thru the population from time to time, but NYC hasn't seen an uptick, and I'd like to believe it is because they hit a level where the transmission goes way way down.  Maybe the "immunity" will only last 6 months?  Waiting games suck, but we better get this understood by the end of 2020.  What else does Fauci and his ilk have on their collective plates?

Edited July 10, 2020 by 123719bwiqrb

[shoshin]

11 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Shosin has started showing the same death chart I’ve been quoting and summarizing for weeks/months now. It’s appreciated! So....I could give my usual daily tally but I won’t. My observation is a simple one: the virus, which is passed from person to person, has obviously moved from the NE to the SW corner of the country. Much like a cold front on a weather map. It’s definitely NOT random. And it’s definitely NOT linked to politics. As others have cited, the outlier is New Jersey but again it’s an outlier.

 

 

I don't know WTF is going on in NJ. Cases are super low, deaths are very high. So many inconsistent data points throughout this. The numbers don't lie but nor do they tell the clearest tale. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

I agree, you guys are posting good stuff.  I give people gruff about inconsistencies in their thinking, but things change fast and it''s hard to know who you can trust.

 

Ultimately, we will achieve those evil words (herd immunity).  I'd guess it will still circulate thru the population from time to time, but NYC hasn't seen an uptick, and I'd like to believe it is because they hit a level where the transmission goes way way down.  Maybe it will only last 6 months?  Waiting games suck.

 

Thanks for the thanks. It’s really rare around here. I’ve tried to remain utterly unemotionally consistent in my reporting. I wish the national media did the same....but there’s little profit in that. I’ve just been looking at the number of fatalities through it all. Cases are WAY TOO variable. My conclusions would be totally different if the high numbers showed a different pattern, but they don’t. The ‘hot spots’ are not spots at all! They’re entire contiguous regions. First the NY/NE metro corridor and now the SW. They’re also not related to politics. The party affiliations for the governors is NOT the common denominator.

[Gary M]

10 hours ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

I think scientists agree herd immunity for covid would be in the 65-75% range for exposures to the virus.

 

 

You're wrong, they don't agree, I have seen estimates of 15% to 43% never saw 65-75%

[plenzmd1]

35 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I don't know WTF is going on in NJ. Cases are super low, deaths are very high. So many inconsistent data points throughout this. The numbers don't lie but nor do they tell the clearest tale. 

A week or so back, Jersey added 600 some deaths that had previously not been noted as Covid, to Covid. My guess is that is continuing to occur. Frustrating for sure 

[SoCal Deek]

35 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I don't know WTF is going on in NJ. Cases are super low, deaths are very high. So many inconsistent data points throughout this. The numbers don't lie but nor do they tell the clearest tale. 

It’s clearly an outlier. Bad data and really bad reporting. That’s exactly where the federal government officials should be heading today. It’s not helping anyone if you have a state in such total disarray. 

[realtruelove]

34 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

I don't know WTF is going on in NJ. Cases are super low, deaths are very high. So many inconsistent data points throughout this. The numbers don't lie but nor do they tell the clearest tale. 

There has to be some clue or clues regarding NJ and the high deaths.  Is there something unique about the environment, the makeup of that population?  Any common threads with those dead?

 

[Gary M]

3 hours ago, shoshin said:

Simple science. Good title to this series: It's okay to be Smart.

 

 

 

He has an episode on vaccines too but I don't want to be too extreme. 

 

If they work why are we not fully open now, i understand the democrat caused shortage of masks early on, but now we have plenty. We should be fully open

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, realtruelove said:

There has to be some clue or clues regarding NJ and the high deaths.  Is there something unique about the environment, the makeup of that population?  Any common threads with those dead?

 

It’s total incompetence on the part of their public health office. That data is garbage and someone needs to lose their job.

[WEATHER DOT COM]

3 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

You're wrong, they don't agree, I have seen estimates of 15% to 43% never saw 65-75%

 

NIH, Johns Hopkins, Stanford, and May Clinic are all within the range I stated.

 

What scientific institutions/scientists have estimated 15-43%? 

[Gary M]

2 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

NIH, Johns Hopkins, Stanford, and May Clinic are all within the range I stated.

 

What scientific institutions/scientists have estimated 15-43%?

 

When did they estimate that, March?

 

https://reason.com/2020/05/15/whats-the-herd-immunity-threshold-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus/

 

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-achieving-herd-immunity-may-occur-sooner-than-previously-thought

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200623111329.htm

 

BTW I meant you were wrong about the consensus

[SoCal Deek]

6 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

NIH, Johns Hopkins, Stanford, and May Clinic are all within the range I stated.

 

What scientific institutions/scientists have estimated 15-43%? 

Since we’ve only tested barely 15% of the population it’s impossible to tell the level of immunity we’re at. And it shows how ridiculous the ‘test everyone’ crowd was back in April. It cannot be done. So...when will we reach herd immunity? Nobody really knows for sure but we’re clearly not there yet in the newly fertile SW part of the country.

[Gary M]

59 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Shosin has started showing the same death chart I’ve been quoting and summarizing for weeks/months now. It’s appreciated! So....I could give my usual daily tally but I won’t. My observation is a simple one: the virus, which is passed from person to person, has obviously moved from the NE to the SW corner of the country. Much like a cold front on a weather map. It’s definitely NOT random. And it’s definitely NOT linked to politics. As others have cited, the outlier is New Jersey but again it’s an outlier.

The nonsense you read about Trump’s Tulsa rally is nonsense. The nonsense you used to read about how great California was doing was, nonsense. The nonsense about this being a second wave is nonsense. The virus is doing exactly what contagious viruses do. And I’m guessing it would have done it sooner had the country not stopped virtually all domestic air travel. 

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/animated-world-map

 

was hoping for better animation

[WEATHER DOT COM]

13 minutes ago, Gary M said:

 

When did they estimate that, March?

 

https://reason.com/2020/05/15/whats-the-herd-immunity-threshold-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus/

 

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-achieving-herd-immunity-may-occur-sooner-than-previously-thought

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200623111329.htm

 

BTW I meant you were wrong about the consensus

 

Your reason article even states this...

 

Most the evidence so far suggests that people who recover from a COVID-19 coronavirus infection do, at least for a time, develop immunity to the microbe. If that's true, what is the disease-induced herd immunity threshold for the COVID-19 coronavirus? Various epidemiologists offer different answers, depending upon their estimates for the disease's R0 and other variables, but most have converged on a threshold at around 60 to 70 percent.

 

That article seems to be based on the sciencedaily study - haven't had time to check out the mdnewstoday one. The study seems interesting - I'll give it a read when I had a chance. Thanks.

Edited July 10, 2020 by wAcKy ZeBrA

[123719bwiqrb]

5 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

Your reason article even states this...

 

Most the evidence so far suggests that people who recover from a COVID-19 coronavirus infection do, at least for a time, develop immunity to the microbe. If that's true, what is the disease-induced herd immunity threshold for the COVID-19 coronavirus? Various epidemiologists offer different answers, depending upon their estimates for the disease's R0 and other variables, but most have converged on a threshold at around 60 to 70 percent.

 

That article seems to be based on the sciencedaily study - haven't had time to check out the mdnewstoday one. The study seems interesting - I'll give it a read when I had a chance. Thanks.

 

I think the confounding part is a large percentage of the population get the virus but are asymptomatic.  This asymptomatic population is the reason for the new theory that the herd immunity threshold is much lower.  What that % number is seems to depend on your political leanings more than science.  The 60-70% is the old theory, 20% is the new theory being floated about, and practically speaking it is probably somewhere between those 2 numbers.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

I think the confounding part is a large percentage of the population get the virus but are asymptomatic.  This asymptomatic population is the reason for the new theory that the herd immunity threshold is much lower.  What that % number is seems to depend on your political leanings more than science.  The 60-70% is the old theory, 20% is the new theory being floated about, and practically speaking it is probably somewhere between those 2 numbers.

 

It seems the theory is that to reach herd immunity you need to have ~80% of the population exhibit resistance to catching/transmitting the virus.

 

Initial theories were that because this virus is "novel" that nearly 0% of the population would be naturally resistant to it and you'd need 70%+ of the population to be exposed to it to reach herd immunity.

 

There are now studies (no idea whether they are valid) estimating that up to 70% of the population may have a natural resistance to the virus due to exposure to other coronaviruses over their lives.  My guess is that is an overly optimistic estimate.  But there are studies that suggest in the places that had major hot spots, such as Milan or NYC, that ~20% of the population was exposed to the point of contracting the virus.  NYC also doesn't seem to be having a 2nd wave despite the fact that there were thousands of people out at the protests.  So, maybe that 20% is accurate and also maybe NYC has reached the mythical herd immunity.  If so, it would seem ~60% of the population is naturally resistant.

 

If the 20% is the true threshold we need to reach herd immunity, then these new areas having their 1st wave is a good thing as they'll get to that level sometime in the next few weeks.  And those areas should be in decent shape in the fall.

 

IF those assumptions are valid, then it's those of us that live rurally that haven't seen the 1st wave yet that will have to deal with this in the fall when the normal flu season starts.

 

Hard to say about any of it because there is so much BS getting floated from both directions.  Thanks @Magox @SoCal Deek and even @shoshin for bringing us data that seems to be more reliable than a lot of it.

[Gary M]

41 minutes ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:

 

Your reason article even states this...

 

Most the evidence so far suggests that people who recover from a COVID-19 coronavirus infection do, at least for a time, develop immunity to the microbe. If that's true, what is the disease-induced herd immunity threshold for the COVID-19 coronavirus? Various epidemiologists offer different answers, depending upon their estimates for the disease's R0 and other variables, but most have converged on a threshold at around 60 to 70 percent.

 

That article seems to be based on the sciencedaily study - haven't had time to check out the mdnewstoday one. The study seems interesting - I'll give it a read when I had a chance. Thanks.

 

I was showing how the estimates are changing over time, the reason article is two months old.

 

Testing is the key, especially antibody testing.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Gary M

[Tiberius]

ASU researchers develop cheaper, faster saliva test for COVID-19 

 

 

Researchers at the ASU Biodesign Institute must wear protective gear while testing samples for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. (Source: ASU Biodesign Institute) 

By Nathaniel Boyle | July 8, 2020 at 5:16 PM MST - Updated July 8 at 5:18 PM 

PHOENIX — As the number of Arizonans who have contracted COVID-19 has raced past 100,000, testing for the novel coronavirus that causes the respiratory disease has become a priority. Some of that testing now is being done through saliva, a process that’s easier and less expensive.

Arizona’s first saliva test – designed by scientists at Arizona State University to make university-wide testing feasible in the fall – already has been administered to more than 6,000 people, according to Vel Murugan, an associate research professor at ASU’s Biodesign Institute. It’s an alternative to nasopharyngeal swabs, which are uncomfortable and can be dangerous to frontline workers.

Saliva tests may be even more accurate than nasal tests, said Joshua LaBaer, executive director of the Biodesign Institute. Nasopharyngeal swabs involve inserting a cotton swab into the nose and pushing it to the back of the palate, where the sample is collected. The swab then is put into about half a teaspoon of liquid, mostly saline.

“But in the case of the saliva test, the entire sample is produced by the person,” he said. “So, if there’s virus in there, there’s probably a little bit more virus in the saliva test. So, in our hands, it’s as effective, and in at least a couple of cases it looks like it might be a little bit more effective.”

[123719bwiqrb]

3 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

ASU researchers develop cheaper, faster saliva test for COVID-19 

 

 

Researchers at the ASU Biodesign Institute must wear protective gear while testing samples for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. (Source: ASU Biodesign Institute) 

By Nathaniel Boyle | July 8, 2020 at 5:16 PM MST - Updated July 8 at 5:18 PM 

PHOENIX — As the number of Arizonans who have contracted COVID-19 has raced past 100,000, testing for the novel coronavirus that causes the respiratory disease has become a priority. Some of that testing now is being done through saliva, a process that’s easier and less expensive.

Arizona’s first saliva test – designed by scientists at Arizona State University to make university-wide testing feasible in the fall – already has been administered to more than 6,000 people, according to Vel Murugan, an associate research professor at ASU’s Biodesign Institute. It’s an alternative to nasopharyngeal swabs, which are uncomfortable and can be dangerous to frontline workers.

Saliva tests may be even more accurate than nasal tests, said Joshua LaBaer, executive director of the Biodesign Institute. Nasopharyngeal swabs involve inserting a cotton swab into the nose and pushing it to the back of the palate, where the sample is collected. The swab then is put into about half a teaspoon of liquid, mostly saline.

“But in the case of the saliva test, the entire sample is produced by the person,” he said. “So, if there’s virus in there, there’s probably a little bit more virus in the saliva test. So, in our hands, it’s as effective, and in at least a couple of cases it looks like it might be a little bit more effective.”

 

That's cool.  While some people don't mind the nasal swab test, my wife described it as a lobotomy via q-tip. She is a blonde, so she doesn't have much to work with either.

Edited July 10, 2020 by 123719bwiqrb

[Buffalo_Gal]

If half the country wore one of these, the mask argument would be over in two seconds.

Seems that no one says anything to me...lol. one guy said, you're either packing or crazy...I replied, "DO YOU WANTA FIND OUT?"....He walked away...lol
 

 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

A week or so back, Jersey added 600 some deaths that had previously not been noted as Covid, to Covid. My guess is that is continuing to occur. Frustrating for sure 

 

Worldometer didn't add those on that day. I don't know what is going on. Maybe it's more reclassification but I'd like someone to write about it because it's really striking. 

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

Since we’ve only tested barely 15% of the population it’s impossible to tell the level of immunity we’re at. And it shows how ridiculous the ‘test everyone’ crowd was back in April. It cannot be done. So...when will we reach herd immunity? Nobody really knows for sure but we’re clearly not there yet in the newly fertile SW part of the country.

 

And even that's not true because lots of people have been tested twice or more, and my negative test from last week is irrelevant today. 

29 minutes ago, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

That's cool.  While some people don't mind the nasal swab test, my wife described it as a lobotomy via q-tip. She is a blonde, so she doesn't have much to work with either.

 

Your wife is a drama Q (do not comment!) or the person giving the test was an idiot. I've had three tests and none were anything more than awkward feeling. Zero pain. 

 

People have been talking about the salvia test and the rapid test now since March. Zero widespread usage of either one at this point. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by shoshin

[WEATHER DOT COM]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

If half the country wore one of these, the mask argument would be over in two seconds.

Seems that no one says anything to me...lol. one guy said, you're either packing or crazy...I replied, "DO YOU WANTA FIND OUT?"....He walked away...lol
 

 

 

This liberal would love it. The more people who wear masks, the quicker this ***** is over with. I'd like to watch a kickoff in September.

Edited July 10, 2020 by wAcKy ZeBrA

[123719bwiqrb]

4 minutes ago, shoshin said:

First, your wife is absurd or the person giving the test was an idiot. I've had three tests and none were more than awkward. Zero pain. 

 

She is a goof, but I witnessed it.  I was driving the car and she was in the passenger seat, and the dude went the full swab's length into her nostril.  Looked painful to me.

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, realtruelove said:

There has to be some clue or clues regarding NJ and the high deaths.  Is there something unique about the environment, the makeup of that population?  Any common threads with those dead?

 

 

I can't answer. Someone out there probably has written something up but it's not on top of Twitter or the news. Yesterday had 300 cases, 100 deaths. That's a super WTF ratio. 

Just now, 123719bwiqrb said:

 

She is a goof, but I witnessed it.  I was driving the car and she was in the passenger seat, and the dude went the full swab's length into her nostril.  Looked painful to me.

 

That's on the dude sticking it into your wife. Most guys couldn't watch that but different strokes for different folks. 

[WEATHER DOT COM]

Interesting thing I found researching the NJ deaths. Like you, @shoshin, I can't find anything at the moment that explains their high death to cases ratio.