The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[shoshin]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Yep. Dropped 4000 points that last week of February.

More to come. 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, shoshin said:

More to come. 

 

I would have thought already. Surprisingly, it is holding fairly steady

6 minutes ago, shoshin said:

2400+ dead today. Really big jump. the highest before today was just over 2000. 
 

I hope this is the peak for this wave. I doubt it’s the peak for us as a country because I don’t see that we have the will to do what needs to be done to keep the economy rolling and manage this at the same time.
 

Trying to remain optimistic but the will for people to do what’s needed seems lacking. People want their cell phones free of apps. People want to walk the beach. People want to go to church in groups. If nothing gives on this, we all give. 

 

People don't like living in fear.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Adam (somebody) working on a program to allow hospitals to lend ventilators when needed. He's naming some big places (like Cleveland clinic, mayo clinic). This is a virtual reserve, along with the federal reserve, will ensure no American who needs a ventilator is without one.
 

Trump: met with leaders of hospitals and hospital associations. Partnering for the ventilator reserve (what the Adam-guy did).

Dynamic Ventilator Reserve Program

He's got some big name heads of hospitals up there now.

 

At least in NYS hospitals already HAD such agreements to loan equipment to hospitals that have shortages if others had spare capacity.  Which makes the Friday Cuomo press conference a week back saying he was calling in the National Guard so confounding.  Of course, maybe somebody explained that to him over that weekend which would explain his about face on that Monday.

[shoshin]

9 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I would have thought already. Surprisingly, it is holding fairly steady

 

 

It won’t if we don’t get back to work very soon. The July August talk is a bomb. 
 

Quote

 

People don't like living in fear.

 

I like a working economy. The virus is what it is. This was a good shutdown if we act in a way that makes it a single event in one wave. It is a debacle if we open early and the cases jump and surpass our current peak. 
 

I hope the politicians make the right call. Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by shoshin

[Troll Toll]

9 minutes ago, shoshin said:

2400+ dead today. Really big jump. the highest before today was just over 2000. 
 

I hope this is the peak for this wave. I doubt it’s the peak for us as a country because I don’t see that we have the will to do what needs to be done to keep the economy rolling and manage this at the same time.
 

Trying to remain optimistic but the will for people to do what’s needed seems lacking. People want their cell phones free of apps. People want to walk the beach. People want to go to church in groups. If nothing gives on this, we all give. 

It isn’t going to be easy, but look at it this way: 

 

1. We will have far better testing for future waves

2. We will have way more of the necessary medical equipment available

3. Employers will be putting in policies to help mitigate transmissions in the work place.

4. We have some promising medical treatments whereas initially we were flying blind

 

I know people find Fauci polarizing, and some would probably see it as CYA when he says we are so far below the model estimates because of how well we have followed the guidelines. I actually find this to be a genuine sentiment from him. You see pictures of NYC where there are no cars and no people. 
 

Due to the nature of NYC, I don’t know how long it will take to clean up the mess. I think most of the country will do well though.

[Doc Brown]

20 minutes ago, shoshin said:

2400+ dead today. Really big jump. the highest before today was just over 2000. 
 

I hope this is the peak for this wave. I doubt it’s the peak for us as a country because I don’t see that we have the will to do what needs to be done to keep the economy rolling and manage this at the same time.
 

Trying to remain optimistic but the will for people to do what’s needed seems lacking. People want their cell phones free of apps. People want to walk the beach. People want to go to church in groups. If nothing gives on this, we all give. 

Tuesday effect.  Saw a similar spike last Tuesday as hospitals are slow to report over the weekend.  I'd be shocked if the last couple of days weren't are peak.

[shoshin]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Tuesday effect.  Saw a similar spike last Tuesday as hospitals are slow to report over the weekend.  I'd be shocked if the last couple of days weren't are peak.

The highest day before was 5 days ago. And the big leap before that was not on a Tuesday. 
 

The last time it jumped on a Tuesday and you said this, the total stayed high, so that really doesn’t stand up. It only would make sense if Tuesdays were big leaps and then the number dropped. 

[GG]

Here we go

 

"Although the the U.S. intelligence community early on dismissed the notion that the coronavirus is a synthesized bioweapon, it is still weighing the possibility that the pandemic might have been touched off by an accident at a research facility rather than by an infection from a live-animal market, according to nine current and former intelligence and national security officials familiar with ongoing investigations."

[SydneyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

The WHO investigation will be 60-90 days.

 

I expect nothing less than a full root and branch investigation, Trump style.

 

Most to blame for this debacle: GOLD - China....SILVER - W.H.O.....BRONZE - Leftist media

 

I expect Trump to do the following - no stone left unturned, no individual spared from merciless scrutiny, 100% unfiltered accountability. You can bank on it!!

 

Trump's 2016 election victory is proving to be the political equivalent of the guy who invested all his money in Microsoft shares the day before Bill Gates launched Windows 95. Its the investment that keeps on giving!

Edited April 15, 2020 by SydneyBillsFan

[Doc Brown]

47 minutes ago, shoshin said:

The highest day before was 5 days ago. And the big leap before that was not on a Tuesday. 
 

The last time it jumped on a Tuesday and you said this, the total stayed high, so that really doesn’t stand up. It only would make sense if Tuesdays were big leaps and then the number dropped. 

I'm not saying it's not bad.  It's just that you saw a significant spike in the last three Tuesday's so take today's numbers with a grain of salt.

 

 

 

 

 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

Researchers have identified microscopic features that could make the pathogen more infectious than the SARS virus — and serve as drug targets.

 

Smriti Mallapaty

 

•  
•  

• Why does the coronavirus spread so easily between people?

 PDF version

An image of the new coronavirus taken with an electron microscope.Credit: U.S. National Institutes of Health/AP/Shutterstock

As the number of coronavirus infections approaches 100,000 people worldwide, researchers are racing to understand what makes it spread so easily.

A handful of genetic and structural analyses have identified a key feature of the virus — a protein on its surface — that might explain why it infects human cells so readily.

Other groups are investigating the doorway through which the new coronavirus enters human tissues — a receptor on cell membranes. Both the cell receptor and the virus protein offer potential targets for drugs to block the pathogen, but researchers say it is too early to be sure.

“Understanding transmission of the virus is key to its containment and future prevention,” says David Veesler, a structural virologist at the University of Washington in Seattle, who posted his team’s findings about the virus protein on the biomedical preprint server bioRxiv on 20 February¹.

The new virus spreads much more readily than the one that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS (also a coronavirus), and has infected more than ten times the number of people who contracted SARS.

Spiky invader

To infect a cell, coronaviruses use a ‘spike’ protein that binds to the cell membrane, a process that's activated by specific cell enzymes. Genomic analyses of the new coronavirus have revealed that its spike protein differs from those of close relatives, and suggest that the protein has a site on it which is activated by a host-cell enzyme called furin.

This is significant because furin is found in lots of human tissues, including the lungs, liver and small intestines, which means that the virus has the potential to attack multiple organs, says Li Hua, a structural biologist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began. The finding could explain some of the symptoms observed in people with the coronavirus, such as liver failure, says Li, who co-authored a genetic analysis of the virus that was posted on the ChinaXiv preprint server on 23 February². SARS and other coronaviruses in the same genus as the new virus don't have furin activation sites, he says.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00660-x

 

 

More covid19 can get into. Furin, ACE2 and CD147.

[Gene Frenkle]

9 hours ago, GG said:

 

Are liquor stores or pot dispensaries?  Heck, there's a dollar store that's still open nearby.

 

Yeah, I guess you're right. It's about the same thing.

[MILFHUNTER#518]

Apparently,  this is mutating in a way that could make it super tough to make a vaccine for....

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/newly-found-coronavirus-mutation-could-threaten-vaccine-race-study-says/

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said:

Apparently,  this is mutating in a way that could make it super tough to make a vaccine for....

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/14/newly-found-coronavirus-mutation-could-threaten-vaccine-race-study-says/

Your summary is not what the scientists in the article say.

 

Negative headlines get eyeballs though. 
 

Here’s an alternative accurate summary. 
 

Virus mutates to less harmful variant. Vaccines may be adapted in future, similar to flu. 
 

RNA replication is sloppy. Mutations are expected. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by shoshin

[Magox]

It appears New York is going to count all deaths  from people who were never tested to be positive for CoronaVirus but suspected to have it.

 

I certainly understand that it's important for families of wanting to know the true reasons why they passed away, but without doubt there will be many people who may have had flu symptoms but had other underlying conditions that passed away to something aside from CoronaVirus.

 

I'm not sure I agree with this policy.

[Taro T]

58 minutes ago, Magox said:

It appears New York is going to count all deaths  from people who were never tested to be positive for CoronaVirus but suspected to have it.

 

I certainly understand that it's important for families of wanting to know the true reasons why they passed away, but without doubt there will be many people who may have had flu symptoms but had other underlying conditions that passed away to something aside from CoronaVirus.

 

I'm not sure I agree with this policy.

 

IF this is how they've reported suspected deaths from flu and other illnesses then don't have a huge issue with it, but doubt that's the case.

 

Every year, when the CDC reports flu deaths they provide a count but also report the upper and lower confidence intervals for that range.  On the surface, it seems this new policy will cause the reported deaths to be extremely close to the high end of that confidence interval.

 

Will have to look back through the CARES Act and see how the sections on medical aid determine how that is allocated.  Expecting that it's based on total cases and this way NY is goosing the total cases.  It'd also make NY's cardiologists and pulmonary care Drs. appear to be miracle workers as they'll've somehow reduced deaths from heart attacks and diseases such as emphysema and pneumonia down to record lows.  Win - win.  The state gets more CARES Act cash and also gets higher Medicaid/Medicare reimbursement rates as outcomes are improved.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Taro T

[GG]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

IF this is how they've reported suspected deaths from flu and other illnesses then don't have a huge issue with it, but doubt that's the case.

 

Every year, when the CDC reports flu deaths they provide a count but also report the upper and lower confidence intervals for that range.  On the surface, it seems this new policy will cause the reported deaths to be extremely close to the high end of that confidence interval.

 

Will have to look back through the CARES Act and see how the sections on medical aid determine how that is allocated.  Expecting that it's based on total cases and this way NY is goosing the total cases.  It'd also make NY's cardiologists and pulmonary care Drs. appear to be miracle workers as they'll've somehow reduced deaths from heart attacks and diseases such as emphysema and pneumonia down to record lows.  Win - win.  The state gets more CARES Act cash and also gets higher Medicaid/Medicare reimbursement rates as outcomes are improved.

 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

It appears New York is going to count all deaths  from people who were never tested to be positive for CoronaVirus but suspected to have it.

 

I certainly understand that it's important for families of wanting to know the true reasons why they passed away, but without doubt there will be many people who may have had flu symptoms but had other underlying conditions that passed away to something aside from CoronaVirus.

 

I'm not sure I agree with this policy.

 

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.  These were the cases where the deceased never went into the hospital, died at home and were never tested.  Don't know the certainty of the cause, but according to EMTs they were making up to 5x the number of these pick ups than normal.

[Foxx]

11 hours ago, shoshin said:

2400+ dead today. Really big jump. the highest before today was just over 2000. 
 

I hope this is the peak for this wave. I doubt it’s the peak for us as a country because I don’t see that we have the will to do what needs to be done to keep the economy rolling and manage this at the same time.
 

Trying to remain optimistic but the will for people to do what’s needed seems lacking. People want their cell phones free of apps. People want to walk the beach. People want to go to church in groups. If nothing gives on this, we all give. 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, GG said:

 

 

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.  These were the cases where the deceased never went into the hospital, died at home and were never tested.  Don't know the certainty of the cause, but according to EMTs they were making up to 5x the number of these pick ups than normal.

 

As NY had already said last week it would start following this policy, curious if that accounts for at least some of the spike in reported deaths we saw yesterday.  If people that did a month ago are getting added to the daily totals, we're going to see elevated death tolls until they've gone through the entire list.

[SoCal Deek]

I read through page after page of commentary on the virus, number of cases, deaths, etc

 

If you haven’t already, I urge all of you to go to a site called worldometer.com and you’ll see the daily updates on all the key statistics for both the US (state by state) and the world (country by country).
 

It’s an eye opener and really highlights the truly NYC centric nature of this problem. There are entire regions of the country where the virus has had little to no impact. For example, California is something like 1/20th of the cases and that fraction would be significantly smaller if you remove NYC from New York State.