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DJB

Bills final PFF ratings - Offence

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For those that enjoy the PFF ratings . 

 

Josh Allen

Passing - 61.9

Rushing - 65.8

Overall - 64.2

 

Cole Beasley

Recieving - 73.8

Overall - 73.6

 

John Brown

Rushing - 50.9

Receiving - 75.9

Overall - 75.8

 

Isaiah McKenzie 

Rushing - 73.7

Receiving - 66.0

Overall - 68.8

 

Duke Williams 

Receiving 64.8

Overall - 65.3

 

D Singletary 

Rushing - 74.9

Recieving - 47.7

Overall - 66.0

 

Dawson Knox 

Recieving  - 55.3

Rushing - 62.8

Overall  - 60.0

 

Dion Dawkins 

Pass pro - 76.4

Run block - 64.0

Overall - 73.3

 

Q Spain

Pass pro - 70.4

Run block - 45.8

Overall - 55.4

 

M Morse 

Pass pro - 71.1

Run block - 62.6

Overall - 66.4

 

J Feliciano

Pass pro - 66.6

Run block - 63.2

Overall - 64.1

 

C Ford 

Pass pro - 57.7

Run block - 49.4

Overall - 52.4

 

T Neskhe 

Pass pro - 71.1

Run block - 69.1

Overall - 67.3

 

Some thoughts

- Beasley and Smoke were solid

- Singletary was terrific running the ball and needs to work on the recieving game

- Knox was average. He was pretty decent when it was a TE run which reflects his numbers there

- Dawkins is a solid LT. 

- Spains numbers reflect the eye test with me. I thought he was poor all year long and the numbers agree

 - Cody Ford is a work in progress. Probably should be moved inside

- Feliciano and Morse are solid 

- Neskhe had great numbers and deserves to be the full time RT next season

 

 

 

Edited by DJB
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Well, those numbers aren't really numbers, though. They are subjective guesses. It's the same as arbitrarily assigning a letter grade or gold stars.

 

They would like to view their method as data collection, but it is nothing of the sort.

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7 minutes ago, DJB said:

- Neskhe had great numbers and deserves to be the full time RT next season

 

 

 

He’s good, but his injury history says he will never survive a full season as a starter. He’s no spring chicken. 
He’s better served as depth who can step in and play at a high level when needed. The ultimate swing tackle if you will. 
Getting a legit starting right tackle should be fairly high on the list unless they’re keeping Ford there. 

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PFF is Chris Collinsworth and his hired tools.  

 

They are NOT the objective stats guys they pretend to be.

 

Good or bad, take them with a pound of salt.

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We need a big running back for tough yards. It would be like Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn ( Singletary already better than Dunn was on his best day)  from the late 90's Bucs . We do that and get a solid WR we are golden.

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25 minutes ago, DJB said:

For those that enjoy the PFF ratings . 

 

Josh Allen

Passing - 61.9

Rushing - 65.8

Overall - 64.2

 

Cole Beasley

Recieving - 73.8

Overall - 73.6

 

John Brown

Rushing - 50.9

Receiving - 75.9

Overall - 75.8

 

Isaiah McKenzie 

Rushing - 73.7

Receiving - 66.0

Overall - 68.8

 

Duke Williams 

Receiving 64.8

Overall - 65.3

 

D Singletary 

Rushing - 74.9

Recieving - 47.7

Overall - 66.0

 

Dawson Knox 

Recieving  - 55.3

Rushing - 62.8

Overall  - 60.0

 

Dion Dawkins 

Pass pro - 76.4

Run block - 64.0

Overall - 73.3

 

Q Spain

Pass pro - 70.4

Run block - 45.8

Overall - 55.4

 

M Morse 

Pass pro - 71.1

Run block - 62.6

Overall - 66.4

 

J Feliciano

Pass pro - 66.6

Run block - 63.2

Overall - 64.1

 

C Ford 

Pass pro - 57.7

Run block - 49.4

Overall - 52.4

 

T Neskhe 

Pass pro - 71.1

Run block - 69.1

Overall - 67.3

 

Some thoughts

- Beasley and Smoke were solid

- Singletary was terrific running the ball and needs to work on the recieving game

- Knox was average. He was pretty decent when it was a TE run which reflects his numbers there

- Dawkins is a solid LT. 

- Spains numbers reflect the eye test with me. I thought he was poor all year long and the numbers agree

 - Cody Ford is a work in progress. Probably should be moved inside

- Feliciano and Morse are solid 

- Neskhe had great numbers and deserves to be the full time RT next season

 

What do these numbers even mean?  

Someone, @Logic I think, posted some top-notch PFF stuff elsewhere - "heat map" showing how often we targeted different areas of the field relative to NFL average, overthrow distance graph, stuff based on hard data.  Fascinating.

 

As far as I can tell, with this stuff they could say

D Singletary 

Rushing - Quetzalcoatl

Recieving - Overcoat

Overall - Lithoplasty

 

and it would have about as much objective meaning, as far as I can tell

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23 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

He’s good, but his injury history says he will never survive a full season as a starter. He’s no spring chicken. 
He’s better served as depth who can step in and play at a high level when needed. The ultimate swing tackle if you will. 
Getting a legit starting right tackle should be fairly high on the list unless they’re keeping Ford there. 

 

So I'm curious about this.  I googled and looked a few places.

 

What exactly is Nsekhe's injury history that leads you to say this?

 

He is an older guy (34) but given his path to the NFL, he's probably had a bit less wear and tear from weekly games than many at that age.  He's been in the league 5 years.  If you know his backstory, he barely played for a college program and broke in to the NFL through Arena League ball and a CFL stint.

 

I can't find anything on him other than two broken fingers in an arena league game, he was waived and IR'd by the Saints back in 2014 which can be a means to stash a player for a bit, and then this year's ankle sprain or whatever it was.  He didn't play that much in Washington but that's because he was their backup swing tackle.

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Knock these rankings all you want, but they certainly have some merit.

 

Allen needs to get better. We all know that. 

 

Spain rated 45!!!! as a run blocker, which surprises me 0.0 percent. He needs to go. Cody Ford also graded low as a run blocker. That's a problem for a guy his size.

 

My main takeaway is that the offensive line needs to add a couple part to become a competent RUN BLOCK unit. The pass pro wasn't all that much of an issue.

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24 minutes ago, BeefCurtns said:

We need a big running back for tough yards. It would be like Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn ( Singletary already better than Dunn was on his best day)  from the late 90's Bucs . We do that and get a solid WR we are golden.

  Not saying Singletary can't become a better rb than Dunn, but to say he is a better running back than Dunn ever was is stretching it a bit IMO. You do realize Dunn had a very good career and almost 11,000 rushing yards in the league BC? I am bias about my team at times but that is kind of silly.

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Josh improves this year but he needs to continue to get better. If he improves by the same margin this year as he does next we will have a really good thing going. He needs to complete more passes. 

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44 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Knock these rankings all you want, but they certainly have some merit.

 

How do you assess this?

 

It's not by saying players we know need to get better, need to get better.

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1 hour ago, BeefCurtns said:

We need a big running back for tough yards. It would be like Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn ( Singletary already better than Dunn was on his best day)  from the late 90's Bucs . We do that and get a solid WR we are golden.

Gotta be honest, I don’t love the clamor for a big back.  Give me a decently sized back with speed and the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and I’m a lot happier. 

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43 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Spain rated 45!!!! as a run blocker, which surprises me 0.0 percent. He needs to go. Cody Ford also graded low as a run blocker. That's a problem for a guy his size.

My main takeaway is that the offensive line needs to add a couple part to become a competent RUN BLOCK unit. The pass pro wasn't all that much of an issue.

 

I disagree.  Pass protection was a serious issue.  Now maybe part of it was scheme, or failing to recognize the D and set the right protections at times.  But there were times when they had the right guys and were just getting shoved back or whupped.

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10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So I'm curious about this.  I googled and looked a few places.

 

What exactly is Nsekhe's injury history that leads you to say this?

 

He is an older guy (34) but given his path to the NFL, he's probably had a bit less wear and tear from weekly games than many at that age.  He's been in the league 5 years.  If you know his backstory, he barely played for a college program and broke in to the NFL through Arena League ball and a CFL stint.

 

I can't find anything on him other than two broken fingers in an arena league game, he was waived and IR'd by the Saints back in 2014 which can be a means to stash a player for a bit, and then this year's ankle sprain or whatever it was.  He didn't play that much in Washington but that's because he was their backup swing tackle.

 

I thought he had some knee issues with the redskins.. 

 

Yeah, he had a core surgery, then knee issues as a backup in Washington. I remembered cause he left a game I watched early over a knee issue. 
https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/ty-nsekhe-player-injuries

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/washington/washington-redskins/redskins-week-4-injury-report-ty-nsekhe-out-after-surgery%3famp

 

 

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Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I disagree.  Pass protection was a serious issue.  Now maybe part of it was scheme, or failing to recognize the D and set the right protections at times.  But there were times when they had the right guys and were just getting shoved back or whupped.

As far as PFF, I said "some" merit because I do know NFL teams use their info. I've read quite a bit about their methodology that I can't recall at the moment because I'm losing EVERY bet I made, but I believe the consensus is that there are flaws, but the info is still somewhat useful. 

 

I think a great deal of the pass pro issues came from one position and that's RT. There were times when they seemed out of sync with the play call, but I'd say the pass pro was LESS of an issue than the overall run blocking. In other words, I think it's easier to fix the issues with pass pro considering there was a serious liability at just one position.

 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

A grading system from 1-100 that nobody understands. 

 

Yet many will use to support their narrative.

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1 hour ago, MJS said:

Well, those numbers aren't really numbers, though. They are subjective guesses. It's the same as arbitrarily assigning a letter grade or gold stars.

Never realized numbers weren't really numbers.

 

Given that, a gold, silver, red or blue star rating system would be more convincing.

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38 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I disagree.  Pass protection was a serious issue.  Now maybe part of it was scheme, or failing to recognize the D and set the right protections at times.  But there were times when they had the right guys and were just getting shoved back or whupped.

It honestly was too frequent during the season

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OK, PFF haters. You have a point -- they don't exactly do a good job of explaining their grading system. But it ain't that hard to find. From the wiki page on PFF:

 

Quote

 

PFF grades every NFL player on every play on a scale of -2 to +2 using half point increments.[6] The grades are based on context and performance. A four-yard run that gains a first down after two broken tackles will receive a better grade than a four-yard run on 3rd & 5, where the ball carrier does nothing more than expected. A quarterback who makes a good pass that a receiver tips into the arms of a defender will not negatively affect the quarterback's grade on that play, despite the overall negative result for the team.

Furthermore, grades are separated by play type. Beyond just an overall grade, an offensive lineman receives one grade for pass-blocking and one for run-blocking.[7] The average grade is meant to be zero, and raw grades are normalized.

 

 

So, after they do that, here's what the total scores add up to (from PFF's own twitter):


 

Quote

 

The Player Grading Scale:

100-90 Elite

89-85 Pro Bowler

84-70 Starter

69-60 Backup

59-0 Replaceable

 

 

So PFF is what it is. It's not scientific, or "analytic" in any meaningful sense. It may not be better than a pro scout's impressionistic grades. But I find it useful in the way advanced defensive metrics are in baseball: I watch the games, I have a seat of the pants idea of how good a certain player is, I check PFF and it either confirms that or causes me to take a closer look if it doesn't. What it tells us here is that although a lot of Bills fans were thrilled (me among them) with how we upgraded our receiving corps, it's still just ordinary overall (worse than ordinary if we consider TEs). And while we were positively ecstatic about the improvement in the O line, it really just went from historically awful in 2018 to ordinary crappy in 2019; there's ton of room for improvement there.

EDIT: Thanks to the OP for compiling this. I don't subscribe. One comment: Nsekhe was not "great" by PFF's rating. He was a lower-end starting quality RT. But Ford was so, so bad that Nsekhe was a huge upgrade whenever he was on the field.

Edited by The Frankish Reich
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55 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

As far as PFF, I said "some" merit because I do know NFL teams use their info. I've read quite a bit about their methodology that I can't recall at the moment because I'm losing EVERY bet I made, but I believe the consensus is that there are flaws, but the info is still somewhat useful. 

 

I thought we were specifically discussing the numerical rankings given above: "Knock these rankings all you want, but they certainly have some merit."

The NFL doesn't use rankings like this AFAIK - in fact Eric Wood called them out in one interview, pointing out that he'd been ranked as the 2nd to last rushing center or something the same year he was given an extension "I can guarantee, I wasn't extended because that's how our coaches graded me".  

 

PFF does have some good stuff, but it's the stuff that's built more directly on data like the passing heat map posted elsewhere.

 

I'm not aware of a consensus saying PFF's numerical scoring and other "special sauce" metrics are so useful, of course there are many things of which I'm unaware.

 

Quote

I think a great deal of the pass pro issues came from one position and that's RT. There were times when they seemed out of sync with the play call, but I'd say the pass pro was LESS of an issue than the overall run blocking. In other words, I think it's easier to fix the issues with pass pro considering there was a serious liability at just one position.

 

I disagree RT was the only area with a serious liability in pass pro

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No winner Daboll passed more in key moments when you line blocks well in pass than run, it make sense.

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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

I disagree RT was the only area with a serious liability in pass pro

I would say RT is the only POSITION of concern personnel wise WRT pass pro. Nsekhe was certainly better than Ford when healthy. I saw your take on Ty earlier and perhaps that's correct. Maybe he can man down RT in 2020. We'll see. As far as overall issues with pass pro, I don't see any of the other 4 starters in 2019 as liabilities. There were definitely times when the communication/assignments were off(not a GREAT look for Morse or Daboll), but that wasn't necessarily a personnel issue. That's mainly on Daboll and Johnson.

 

As far as PFF, there are a ton of diverging opinions and you very well may be right. I WILL say that Spain's run blocking "number" was exactly where I'd expect it to be, so there's that. 

 

The Bills need a "mauler"(becoming redundant with that word) and LG seems like the perfect spot to upgrade all things considered as it applies to the Bills situation.

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