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dma0034

Bills have tie breakers over Colts and Raiders

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7 hours ago, dma0034 said:

In common games the Bills are 3-0 (Dolphins-Titans) and the Colts are 2-2 (Wins versus Broncos and Titans, Losses to Dolphins and Steelers).

 

So a win against the Broncos (or Steelers later) will give them the tiebreaker versus the Colts

This won't matter when we win the division.  I think the Patriots will drop 2 games and then lose to us in week 16.

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3 minutes ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:

This won't matter when we win the division.  I think the Patriots will drop 2 games and then lose to us in week 16.

 

I think I will this week's Euromillions lottery too. And I haven't even bought a ticket.

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6 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Beating Denver and getting to 8-3 is huge. Do we get to 8 wins Sunday?

 

To answer your question......YES :)

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I hate to be “that guy” but conference record supersedes common opponent record.  https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures. We don’t know how Indy will finish in conference as they still have 3 NFC games left. The Bills have 1. It’s possible that the teams tie but Indy wins more AFC games and finishes ahead of the Bills.

Edited by Kirby Jackson
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8 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Yeah, I get the premise, and it’s not a bad thing to point out. Just seems early to be playing the tie-breaker game already. 

 

Dude what?      You've been out of the playoff game too long (we all have)  its not too early to point this out at all.

 

Some teams have easy schedules coming up, we play the two best teams in the AFC and if Brisset rebounds Indy can easily tie us.  Owning the tiebreaker is like getting a free win. 

 

Tie breakers have kept 11 win teams from making the playoffs before.  ELEVEN wins and you still go home.

 

Its huge.

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When talking wild card, conference record comes before common games. So yeah, beat Denver.

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I hate to be “that guy” but conference record supersedes common opponent record.  https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures. We don’t know how Indy will finish in conference as they still have 3 NFC games left. The Bills have 1. It’s possible that the teams tie but Indy wins more AFC games and finishes ahead of the Bills.

Beat me by a minute. But the Bills have 5 conference games left, not 1. 

EDIT: Okay you were talking about NFC games left. I was talking AFC because, you know, that's our conference. LOL

Edited by Tuco

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4 minutes ago, Tuco said:

When talking wild card, conference record comes before common games. So yeah, beat Denver.

Beat me by a minute. But the Bills have 5 conference games left, not 1.

I said 1 non-conference (same thing).

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1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I hate to be “that guy” but conference record supersedes common opponent record.  https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures. We don’t know how Indy will finish in conference as they still have 3 NFC games left. The Bills have 1. It’s possible that the teams tie but Indy wins more AFC games and finishes ahead of the Bills.

 

The fact that Indy has 3 left makes it easier to work out what their AFC record will be. They are 5-4 in the AFC. The best they can finish is 8-4. The Bills are 5-2 in the AFC. Realistically if we are thinking we need tiebreakers we are probably meaning a 9-7 finish which likely means 7-5 in the AFC. So we need one more Indy loss..... we need a Houston win on Thursday because that means if we beat Denver and the Jets the Colts are the most likely AFCS wildcard team and cannot possibly old a two team tiebreaker over us.

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Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

I said 1 non-conference (same thing).

 

Got it. It just took me a minute, as posted above.

 

So for the record, in the AFC it currently stands-

 

Bills      5-2

Colts    5-4

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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The fact that Indy has 3 left makes it easier to work out what their AFC record will be. They are 5-4 in the AFC. The best they can finish is 8-4. The Bills are 5-2 in the AFC. Realistically if we are thinking we need tiebreakers we are probably meaning a 9-7 finish which likely means 7-5 in the AFC. So we need one more Indy loss..... we need a Houston win on Thursday because that means if we beat Denver and the Jets the Colts are the most likely AFCS wildcard team and cannot possibly old a two team tiebreaker over us.

Not too mention Old Uncle Kirb’s has the Texans +220 to win the AFC South and the Colts under 7.5 wins (not looking so hot here). 

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8 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Beating Denver and getting to 8-3 is huge. Do we get to 8 wins Sunday?

 

1 hour ago, JinxedBill said:

Broncos game is a must win regardless looking ahead at the schedule.  Steelers are also a must win for post season action.

 

Im tired of the scenario waiting.  Let’s be in the drivers seat.  TCB!

People have been saying games are "must wins" ever since week 1.

 

I hope people just realize that every single game is important. Losing any game hurts your chances significantly. Winning any game helps your chances significantly. There's only 16 of them.

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

How does it work with the Dolphins? We played them twice and the Colts only once - so in the common games record do we get credit for both wins? 

 

Having the tiebreaker over the Colts is important in my opinion. I still think the Texans ultimately win the South and the two spots come down to the Bills, Raiders and Colts. 

I believe....and I may be wrong here..we get the tiebreaker over the dolphins if need be.

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42 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

 

Dude what?      You've been out of the playoff game too long (we all have)  its not too early to point this out at all.

 

Some teams have easy schedules coming up, we play the two best teams in the AFC and if Brisset rebounds Indy can easily tie us.  Owning the tiebreaker is like getting a free win. 

 

Tie breakers have kept 11 win teams from making the playoffs before.  ELEVEN wins and you still go home.

 

Its huge.

 

Right now we have the tie-breaker over the colts... an extra win. My point is that it's early to worry about this when our destiny is completely in our hands. If we lose to the Broncos we have bigger issues than missing the tie-breaker vs the colts. 

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9 hours ago, whatdrought said:

 

Yeah, I get the premise, and it’s not a bad thing to point out. Just seems early to be playing the tie-breaker game already. 

First off, not quite sure you did understand the premise. Seems to me you reacted without fully understanding what was written and are now trying to back out of it. 

 

With that said, if we do take your back out attempt at face value, i think you're 100% wrong. I think an interesting point is interesting at any time. 

 

Of course i'm one of those crazy people that enjoys knowledge. I understand that's not always typical. 

 

Thanks for the interesting tidbit OP, it certainly adds a bit more weight to the game. 

Edited by Bobby Hooks

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We've hit the point in the season where all of the NFL broadcasts are now showing the "playoff picture" during each game.  There are only 6 games left.  It is not too early to talk about tie-breakers, whether we control our own destiny or not.  In fact, earning a tie-breaker is a further step in controlling our own destiny.  I was not aware of the potential good news of a win this weekend impacting our tie-breaker status against one of the teams we are competing with, so I;m glad to now this now.  Thumbs up on the post! 

 

Now let's focus on beating Denver.  With a challenging upcoming schedule, we need every win we can squeeze out.  As others have said, the Pittsburgh game may turn out to be a "play in" game for us.  If we can beat Denver, the Jests, and Pittsburgh, I believe we are in.  If we lose to Pittsburgh, a lot of things would have to go our way for us to get in.

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42 minutes ago, Bobby Hooks said:

First off, not quite sure you did understand the premise. Seems to me you reacted without fully understanding what was written and are now trying to back out of it. 

 

With that said, if we do take your back out attempt at face value, i think you're 100% wrong. I think an interesting point is interesting at any time. 

 

Of course i'm one of those crazy people that enjoys knowledge. I understand that's not always typical. 

 

Thanks for the interesting tidbit OP, it certainly adds a bit more weight to the game. 

 

tenor.gif?itemid=14520039

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I worry about tie breakers when its week 16 or 17, and the bills are either tied with somebody, or likely to be tied with somebody. Its week 12, lets just think about how the texans and colts both play each other this week, which will drop one of them to 6-5. And how do the bills offense score against the broncos defense?

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1 hour ago, Bobby Hooks said:

First off, not quite sure you did understand the premise. Seems to me you reacted without fully understanding what was written and are now trying to back out of it. 

 

With that said, if we do take your back out attempt at face value, i think you're 100% wrong. I think an interesting point is interesting at any time. 

 

Of course i'm one of those crazy people that enjoys knowledge. I understand that's not always typical. 

 

Thanks for the interesting tidbit OP, it certainly adds a bit more weight to the game. 

 

No, I did understand the premise and I wasn’t walking back anything. I was speaking out against the poverty mindset around here that we’re gonna need all the help we can get to get into the playoffs- and this has been decided in week 11. We have a lot of season left and we’re 100% in control of our playoff odds right now. We as bills fans can’t enjoy that. So while it’s fine to talk tie breakers, and it doesn’t hurt to have that perspective on this game, it’s also not crazy to say that right now we have the only tie-breaker that matters... the most wins. Until that changes, common wins don’t matter. 

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Good to know!  Colts are one of the main teams that the Bills would be competing with for a wild card birth.   

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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

How does it work with the Dolphins? We played them twice and the Colts only once - so in the common games record do we get credit for both wins? 

 

Having the tiebreaker over the Colts is important in my opinion. I still think the Texans ultimately win the South and the two spots come down to the Bills, Raiders and Colts. 

I think both count as do both Colts/Tenn games.

 

It doesn't really matter because it doesn't get to common opponents until after the conference record tiebreaker is over.  We are 2-1 with Dallas still pending.  The Colts are 1-0 having beaten Atl.  They still play NO, TB, and CAR.  If we beat Dallas and Indy loses to NO and TB but beats CAR for example, then the common opponents thing kicks in.  If we were to lose at Dallas, Indy would have to lose all 3 to beat us in the tiebreaker or lose 2 to tie us.  Winning all three would screw them.

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57 minutes ago, Say When... said:

 

tenor.gif?itemid=14520039

 

passive aggressive? is this something you've just recently heard about and are trying to use it (incorrectly) in internet land? 

 

that was straight up aggressive aggressive. unless you're one of those types that only consider name-calling, and  cuss words usage aggressive. i don't conduct myself in that type of low-brow tomfoolery. 

 

 

Edited by Bobby Hooks

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3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think both count as do both Colts/Tenn games.

 

It doesn't really matter because it doesn't get to common opponents until after the conference record tiebreaker is over.  We are 2-1 with Dallas still pending.  The Colts are 1-0 having beaten Atl.  They still play NO, TB, and CAR.  If we beat Dallas and Indy loses to NO and TB but beats CAR for example, then the common opponents thing kicks in.  If we were to lose at Dallas, Indy would have to lose all 3 to beat us in the tiebreaker or lose 2 to tie us.  Winning all three would screw them.

 

I worked it out after. If we beat Devner and the Jets and they lose Thursday night to Houston (or in fact any of their remaining AFC games) there is no way that in a two team tiebreaker the Colts could hold an advantage over us. The Bills with those two wins would be at worst 7-5 in conference. With one more AFC loss that is the best the Colts could finish and then you are onto common opponents where we have them beat. The bigger risks for me at the moment are either the Colts and Raiders both winning 10 and us only getting to 9 (possible I think) or a 3 way tiebreaker between the Bills, Raiders and Colts. In a 3 way tiebreaker it is win % in common games. So the only common opponents that all 3 have played are Tennessee and Denver. Currently in those games:

 

Bills are 1-0 with 1 to play (vs Denver)

Colts are 2-0 with 1 to play (vs Tennessee)

Raiders are 1-0 with 2 to play (vs Denver and @ Tennessee)

 

If that tiebreaker is equal then it goes to conference record (so other way round compared to a two team tiebreak) and at the moment the Bills are 5-2, the Colts are 5-4, the Raiders are 4-2. In that scenario we need one of the other two to finish with only 6 AFC wins. There is no way for the Raiders to get to 9-7 without getting to at least 7 AFC wins because their NFC slate is done. So realistically we need the Colts to lose two in the conference. After that it goes to strength of victory and then strength of schedule and if our only two remaining wins are Denver and the Jets that basically is us done.

 

You might be thinking "ah but the Colts could win and go on to win the division leaving Houston in the wildcard race." And that is true, they could. But that is not great for us either the Texans are 4-2 in conference as well. So it is highly preferable for the Bills that it is Indy who end up in the wildcard race because they already have FOUR AFC losses on their record (Chargers, Raiders, Steelers, Dolphins). One more is probably curtains for them so long as the Bills don't blow it against Denver or the Jets.

 

Conclusion? It is really important the Texans beat the Colts tomorrow night if we are in a tiebreaker situation. If they don't then I think we need 10 wins to have any level of comfort.

 

 

Edited by GunnerBill
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