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15 win teams aren't built overnight


wagon127

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Going into this game, I cautioned people who were thinking this was a 13, 14 or 15 win team. It takes more then just talent and a favorable schedule to get there. It takes a mental preparedness that can only come from players and leaders who are accustomed to winning. Almost everybody on this team, is not used to having winning seasons in the NFL. They are going to have ups and downs throughout this season. The Eagles are having such an up and down season. Still not able to handle their super bowl hangover. They have lost to and beaten bad teams, and lost to and beat good teams. The cowboys and Ravens are the same way. I still think this is a 10 or 11 win team. There's no reason to think the sky is falling, and we need to abandon the plan to develop with Josh Allen, and this coaching staff.

Edited by wagon127
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Well, the Bills don't have the talent to be a 15 win team, sir.  They have a few really good pieces, some good pieces, some prospects, and a lot of JAGs on their starting rosters.  Get past the starters, and this team is full of 6th and 7th rounders and UDFAs.  Some of their starters on both sides of the ball are at the ends of their careers.   I think that their current talent level is about that of an 8 or 9 win team.  Because of their schedule, they should be able to win 9  games this season, and they seem more likely to make the playoffs than in any season in the last decade but they are going to need significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball to win 10 or 11 games.  They cannot continue to turn the ball over to the opposition and squander opportunities with stupid pre-snap penalties. 

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Good points, however I think this is really, probably, a 7-9 team which is playing a very favorable schedule.

 

o  Offense - 19 in yards/game.  24 in points/game.  Very weak QB play / passing game.  Turnovers.

o  Defense - 5 in points / game - for now.  Very good passing D - Bad run D.  (See Philly and Dolphins)

o  S. T. - Horrible - bottom of league. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst/2019

 

This is year 3 of the rebuild - looking pretty shaky IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Bangarang said:

Andy Reid inherited a Chiefs team that won 2 games the year prior. His first year they won 11 games and made the playoffs. 
 

This whole nonsense of it takes 4 or 5 years to become a good team is exactly that. 

 

once every 50 years is not a normative model for pro sports

 

don't go insane if they fail to win the SB the next 6 years in Buffalo....

 

 

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18 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Well, the Bills don't have the talent to be a 15 win team, sir.  They have a few really good pieces, some good pieces, some prospects, and a lot of JAGs on their starting rosters.  Get past the starters, and this team is full of 6th and 7th rounders and UDFAs.  Some of their starters on both sides of the ball are at the ends of their careers.   I think that their current talent level is about that of an 8 or 9 win team.  Because of their schedule, they should be able to win 9  games this season, and they seem more likely to make the playoffs than in any season in the last decade but they are going to need significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball to win 10 or 11 games.  They cannot continue to turn the ball over to the opposition and squander opportunities with stupid pre-snap penalties. 

 

Which is why gutting a roster of talent in the name of "my guys" (cap hell was self created) is silly at best because it removes any depth. You create holes, then have to dedicate resources to replace them. Then ignore other holes to fill the self created. 

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Just now, Bangarang said:

Andy Reid inherited a Chiefs team that won 2 games the year prior. His first year they won 11 games and made the playoffs. 
 

This whole nonsense of it takes 4 or 5 years to become a good team is exactly that. 

I'm not suggesting it would take 4 or 5 years to become an 11 win team. I'm talking about 13, 14, or 15 win teams. I think this Bills team can win 10 or 11 games this year.

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2 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

I'm not suggesting it would take 4 or 5 years to become an 11 win team. I'm talking about 13, 14, or 15 win teams. I think this Bills team can win 10 or 11 games this year.


Whether we win 10 games or 15 games, I want sustained success. You don’t have that with a bottom tier offense. McD has proven he can build a good defense. It’s his offense that has been the problem every year and I question whether he knows how to fix it.

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15 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Andy Reid inherited a Chiefs team that won 2 games the year prior. His first year they won 11 games and made the playoffs. 
 

This whole nonsense of it takes 4 or 5 years to become a good team is exactly that. 

 

13 minutes ago, wagon127 said:

I'm not suggesting it would take 4 or 5 years to become an 11 win team. I'm talking about 13, 14, or 15 win teams. I think this Bills team can win 10 or 11 games this year.

 

15 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

once every 50 years is not a normative model for pro sports

 

don't go insane if they fail to win the SB the next 6 years in Buffalo....

 

 

Groundhogs day forever. Its always the next year and the next year and the next. 

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29 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Andy Reid inherited a Chiefs team that won 2 games the year prior. His first year they won 11 games and made the playoffs. 
This whole nonsense of it takes 4 or 5 years to become a good team is exactly that. 

 

It remains to be seen but SF may be an example

2016 2-14

2017 Shanahan takes over.  Acquires Jimmy G. 6-10

2018 4-12 (Jimmy G lost to injury early in season)

2019 7-0.  Plenty of football left, but barring major injuries they seem pretty legit in Shanahan's 3rd year.


LA Rams may be another example

2016 4-12, draft Goff

2017 McVay takes over  11-5

2018 13-3, SB

2019  5-3 and 1 game off pace to claw for a WC spot

 

We don't seem to be in the same place as these teams after 3 years.

 

I don't think the Chiefs were a "once in 50 years" exception to the "takes 4-5 years" rule.

 

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1 hour ago, wagon127 said:

Going into this game, I cautioned people who were thinking this was a 13, 14 or 15 win team. It takes more then just talent and a favorable schedule to get there. It takes a mental preparedness that can only come from players and leaders who are accustomed to winning. Almost everybody on this team, is not used to having winning seasons in the NFL. They are going to have ups and downs throughout this season. The Eagles are having such an up and down season. Still not able to handle their super bowl hangover. They have lost to and beaten bad teams, and lost to and beat good teams. The cowboys and Ravens are the same way. I still think this is a 10 or 11 win team. There's no reason to think the sky is falling, and we need to abandon the plan to develop with Josh Allen, and this coaching staff.

 

1 - some people just want to have fun.  Roll with it. 

2 - 12 wins can be had.

3 - Most every teams has ups and downs.  That is not a revelation.

 

4 - Joe Gibbs said  - When you win a lot of games it is fun.  If you get used to it and  lose it hurts more. 

 

 

some people are overreacting imo 

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1 hour ago, Socal-805 said:

 

 

Good points, however I think this is really, probably, a 7-9 team which is playing a very favorable schedule.

 

o  Offense - 19 in yards/game.  24 in points/game.  Very weak QB play / passing game.  Turnovers.

o  Defense - 5 in points / game - for now.  Very good passing D - Bad run D.  (See Philly and Dolphins)

o  S. T. - Horrible - bottom of league. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst/2019

 

This is year 3 of the rebuild - looking pretty shaky IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

One of the big problems that Beane encountered was reshaping this roster. So many changes had to be made...high turnover with so many good players needed. 

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1 hour ago, row_33 said:

Wild Card and a decent showing that weekend is a great achievement, all things considered.

 

 

What “things considered”?  These guys took over a .500 operation, this is year 3, and we have an almost unbelievably easy schedule in a weakling conference. I’m not seeing the “great achievement “.

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