Tiberius Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 (edited) The Electoral College would very heavily favor the Democratic party. Without a single other state Trump won in 2016, the Democratic candidate will have 270 EC votes. 38 EC votes. Two polls right now have the race a dead heat there with Trump and Biden. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html Obama lost Texas by 16 points in 2012. Hillary lost by 9 in 2016. Beto lost by 2% in 2018 and the Demographics of the state are changing very fast. Even better, the Democrats are getting out the vote (increasing the number of their voters) faster than the population of Democratic leaning voters. Arizona, New Mexico and yes, California have all followed a similar pattern. California and Texas actually have about the same Hispanic population percentage. So just turning out the vote right now would do it, but the demographic shifts are making all this happen faster. Quote But the blue shift isn’t coming just from the growing minority population. Younger white voters are significantly more likely to identify as Democrats than their older counterparts. Consider the chart below, which is based on our recent research. It presents the percentage of Texans of color (on the left) and whites (on the right) who said they identified with the Democratic Party in 2009, 2013 and 2017. We include independent-leaning Democrats in this analysis. These figures come from analysis of Texas Politics Project Polls, with large samples that allow us to differentiate between age groups within the two categories. Figure: Juan Carlos Huerta As you can see, among people of color, both older and younger Texans have been solidly Democratic. For instance, in 2017, 68 percent of voters born before 1979 (i.e., 40 or older) and those born since 1979 identified with or leaned toward the Democrats. Although that represents a slight uptick among older voters since 2009, their numbers have generally been consistent over this period. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/12/18/are-texass-demographics-finally-turning-the-state-blue-we-looked-at-the-electorate-to-find-out/?utm_term=.16e4f8594d76 Edited July 24, 2020 by Tiberius 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdutton Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 No wonder Democrats don't want a wall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted June 3, 2019 Author Share Posted June 3, 2019 Quote The population influx has shown few signs of abating in recent years. Denton and Collin counties each added around 27,000 residents last year — averaging 75 new residents a day, each. Tarrant County added about 90 people a day; Houston’s Harris County added almost 100 new people every 24 hours. The pace of growth is so fast that some mayors and county officials in suburban cities worry they will not be able to build sewer, school and power infrastructure fast enough. “Everyone talks about the sleeping giant here in Texas, the Latino vote is going to rise up one day. The other giant that they don’t talk about is Texas is the fastest growing state in the country,” said Ed Espinoza, executive director of the liberal group Progress Texas. “These new voters are voting for Democrats over Republicans by a ratio of 5 to 1.” https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/434161-orourke-renews-dem-hopes-about-turning-texas-blue 1 minute ago, bdutton said: No wonder Democrats don't want a wall. Why? That won't stop anything. The wall is stupid and useless SAW-1 Hacksaw | Park Tool parktool.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted June 3, 2019 Author Share Posted June 3, 2019 If you had a brain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, /dev/null said: If my aunt had balls she'd be my transgender uncle FIFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 most amusing scenario is Donald takes the popular and loses the EC, but the Dem states pledging to vote EC for the popular winner give him the second term 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary M Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 (edited) 38 minutes ago, row_33 said: most amusing scenario is Donald takes the popular and loses the EC, but the Dem states pledging to vote EC for the popular winner give him the second term They will renege. Edited June 3, 2019 by Gary M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Tiberius said: The Electoral College would very heavily favor the Democratic party. Without a single other state Trump won in 2016, the Democratic candidate will have 270 EC votes. 38 EC votes. Two polls right now have the race a dead heat there with Trump and Biden. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html Obama lost Texas by 16 points in 2012. Hillary lost by 9 in 2016. Beto lost by 2% in 2018 and the Demographics of the state are changing very fast. Even better, the Democrats are getting out the vote (increasing the number of their voters) faster than the population of Democratic leaning voters. Arizona, New Mexico and yes, California have all followed a similar pattern. California and Texas actually have about the same Hispanic population percentage. So just turning out the vote right now would do it, but the demographic shifts are making all this happen faster. Please fix your title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Q-baby! Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Please fix your panties. Fify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 22 minutes ago, Gary M said: They will renege. you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 (edited) There has been a move from the left to turn Texas blue for a long time. This comes from the addition of latino's, people relocating to Texas from blue-er states like CA and younger voters. As for any polls, too soon and Trump has shown to under-poll just about everywhere. Pollsters and media know it but they love to push that thinking. Edited June 3, 2019 by keepthefaith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted June 3, 2019 Author Share Posted June 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, keepthefaith said: There has been a move from the left to turn Texas blue for a long time. This comes from the addition of latino's, people relocating to Texas from blue-er states like CA and younger voters. As for any polls, too soon and Trump has shown to under-poll just about everywhere. Pollsters and media know it but they love to push that thinking. It might not happen in 2020. It's looking closer than in awhile. But it does look like the process is well under way. So even if not this election, perhaps the next or the one after. But when and if it does happen--all things being equal--the EC becomes a huge bonus for Dems. So all this complaining about the EC is misplaced. Yes its unfair, but what comes around, go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 3,502 https://www.numbersusa.com/news/not-my-backyard-feds-efforts-relocate-illegal-aliens-border It appears the Obama administration resettled illegal immigrants in a strategic manner in states that they thought they could eventually move into solid blue column. Note Tejas and Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 Younger white voters have bought into the idea of “ shaming” and white guilt, sadly. It’s bad and deteriorating every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 Isn't Texas pretty much already democratic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Isn't Texas pretty much already democratic? not for POTUS since 1968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Isn't Texas pretty much already democratic? Well, it's a democratic state for voting purposes but not controlled by the democrats. Too many people think that the democrat party is the democratic party, which is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 I love how Beta v. Cruz is supposed to mean something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Isn't Texas pretty much already democratic? Since it joined the United States. As far as if it's turning blue, I doubt it if Beto couldn't beat one of the least charismatic politicians ever in a blue wave midterm election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, row_33 said: not for POTUS since 1968 Hasn't every POTUS since Texas became part of the United States in 1845 been Democratic. 2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Well, it's a democratic state for voting purposes but not controlled by the democrats. Too many people think that the democrat party is the democratic party, which is wrong. That is the point I'm making you knucklehead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 13 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: That is the point I'm making you knucklehead. LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 55 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: 3,502 https://www.numbersusa.com/news/not-my-backyard-feds-efforts-relocate-illegal-aliens-border It appears the Obama administration resettled illegal immigrants in a strategic manner in states that they thought they could eventually move into solid blue column. Note Tejas and Florida. Yeah but they can't vote... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Hasn't every POTUS since Texas became part of the United States in 1845 been Democratic. That is the point I'm making you knucklehead. Then make it. 1 minute ago, Doc said: Yeah but they can't vote... Of course they can't vote...……………………………………….legally. They're playing the long game and figure they might gain citizenship or at the very least their progeny will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said: Then make it. Sorry I was being too deep for you to get my point. I'll tone it down a bit for you next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 11 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Sorry I was being too deep for you to get my point. I'll tone it down a bit for you next time. sadly he sometimes has to go on ignore usually good points, but not enough extra powerful oopmh to make it worth the unpacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 Just now, Chef Jim said: Sorry I was being too deep for you to get my point. I'll tone it down a bit for you next time. I made the point first when I told HAHA Gator to correct the title of his thread. Did you not understand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 1 minute ago, 3rdnlng said: I made the point first when I told HAHA Gator to correct the title of his thread. Did you not understand? Oooooooh you made it first! Yeah I got it. Now give me your milk money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 Just now, Chef Jim said: Oooooooh you made it first! Yeah I got it. Now give me your milk money! Don't you have a little old lady with blue hair that you should be fleecing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 Just now, 3rdnlng said: Don't you have a little old lady with blue hair that you should be fleecing? Geez. Pulling from the incredibly well thought out BigMcD come back repertoire I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
row_33 Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Geez. Pulling from the incredibly well thought out BigMcD come back repertoire I see. he's having one of those days, again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chef Jim said: Geez. Pulling from the incredibly well thought out BigMcD come back repertoire I see. Now that hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Jim Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 Just now, 3rdnlng said: Now that hurts. Well had you given me your milk money.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 3, 2019 Share Posted June 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Chef Jim said: Well had you given me your milk money.............. "Millions for defense, but not one cent for tribute." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted June 5, 2019 Author Share Posted June 5, 2019 https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted June 5, 2019 Share Posted June 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, Tiberius said: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285 ? The Democrats will be reduced to rubble by 2020. Whose banner will Joe march under come next year? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted June 5, 2019 Author Share Posted June 5, 2019 1 hour ago, RochesterRob said: The Democrats will be reduced to rubble by 2020. Whose banner will Joe march under come next year? 38 Electoral College votes! I love the EC!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 If Texas becomes “Democratic,” Tibs will still be the great great great grandson of slavers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulus Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 The Republicans must start punishing those who exploit the illegal aliens, and punishing them hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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