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Matt Miller: 2020 draft set to have a "historic group" at WR, RB

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On 5/8/2019 at 11:28 AM, ScottLaw said:

So basically you are saying they aren't getting fired because you like them.... despite them impressing you a mediocre 8-8 season and 3 mediocre to below average years since coming here wouldn't be impressive at all.

 

There's plenty of examples of recent teams being awful and then going far into the playoffs in the first or second year of their new regimes.... but some fans here would be ok with McBeane hovering around .500 for 3 straight years. 

 

I get it. Many Bills fans are used to absolutely awful football that even average football is considered impressive, but look around the league and get some perspective. It's not.👍🏻

 

 

 

Um, no. He's saying that they aren't getting fired because the Pegulas like them. That's massively different from saying that a poster on a message board likes them, Scott.

 

And that the Pegulas knew that the first couple of years were not likely to be good.

 

And yeah, there are plenty of examples of teams being awful and then going far into the playoffs in the first or second year of their new regimes. Those instances happened in reload situations. Or sometimes it happens in situations where the "awful" year was the second or third year of a rebuild. Where it simply doesn't happen is in near-complete rebuilds like the one going on here. 

 

And it ain't about whether fans would be OK with 3 straight years of not being very good. It's understanding that rebuilds show massive improvement in the third year a very small amount of the time. I found it was around 20% of the time when I did a major research project a few years back on rebuilds and successful rebuilds in particular. Much more often it takes till the fourth or sometimes even the fifth year for successful rebuilds to hit the real fast track. No, fans wouldn't be thrilled. But the smarter ones would understand, through their exasperation. I absolutely expect some real improvement this year. But it's very possible that that improvement might result in maybe two or three or four more wins, and that would not look like a bad thing at all ... in the long run.

Edited by Thurman#1

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1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Um, no. He's saying that they aren't getting fired because the Pegulas like them. That's massively different from saying that a poster on a message board likes them, Scott.

 

And that the Pegulas knew that the first couple of years were not likely to be good.

 

And yeah, plenty of examples of teams being awful and then going far into the playoffs in the first or second year of their new regimes. Those instances happened in reload situations. Or sometimes it happens in situations where the "awful" year was the second or third year of a rebuild. Where it simply doesn't happen is in near-complete rebuilds like the one going on here. 

 

And it ain't about whether fans would be OK with 3 straight years of not being very good. It's understanding that rebuilds show massive improvement in the third year a very small amount of the time. I found it was around 20% of the time when I did a major research project a few years back on rebuilds and successful rebuilds in particular. Much more often it takes till the fourth or sometimes even the fifth year for successful rebuilds to hit the real fast track. No, fans wouldn't be thrilled. But the smarter ones would understand, through their exasperation. I absolutely expect some real improvement this year. But it's very possible that that improvement might result in maybe two or three or four more wins, and that would not look like a bad thing at all ... in the long run.

Four or five years? Seriously?

 

Tell me who the last franchise was with the same regime that won in their fourth year after three straight mediocre seasons?

 

You don't get 5 years in this league with 4 straight mediocre years. Just doesn't happen. 

 

Anything less than 9 wins is disappointing IMO. 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Um, no. He's saying that they aren't getting fired because the Pegulas like them. That's massively different from saying that a poster on a message board likes them, Scott.

 

And that the Pegulas knew that the first couple of years were not likely to be good.

 

And yeah, plenty of examples of teams being awful and then going far into the playoffs in the first or second year of their new regimes. Those instances happened in reload situations. Or sometimes it happens in situations where the "awful" year was the second or third year of a rebuild. Where it simply doesn't happen is in near-complete rebuilds like the one going on here. 

 

And it ain't about whether fans would be OK with 3 straight years of not being very good. It's understanding that rebuilds show massive improvement in the third year a very small amount of the time. I found it was around 20% of the time when I did a major research project a few years back on rebuilds and successful rebuilds in particular. Much more often it takes till the fourth or sometimes even the fifth year for successful rebuilds to hit the real fast track. No, fans wouldn't be thrilled. But the smarter ones would understand, through their exasperation. I absolutely expect some real improvement this year. But it's very possible that that improvement might result in maybe two or three or four more wins, and that would not look like a bad thing at all ... in the long run.

I'm not going to get into what the Pegulas "knew" about how the first couple years would play out or how much they like McBeane; that's nothing but speculation.

 

Here's the situation:  Through two years, McBeane has the same record as the Rex Ryan regime, and they have been utterly noncompetitive against NE.  They need to show significantly better results this year or people are going to seriously question whether they know what they are doing.  That probably means making the playoffs and winning a game against NE.  I can't predict whether a failure to achieve that would lead to one or both being fired, but, depending on how it all unfolds, it could very well land them in the hot seat.  

Edited by mannc
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1 minute ago, mannc said:

I'm not going to get into what the Pegulas "knew" about how the first couple years would play out or how much they like McBeane; that's nothing but speculation.

 

Here's the situation:  Through two years, McBeane has the same record as the Rex Ryan regime, and they have been utterly noncompetitive against NE.  They need to show significantly better results this year or people are going to seriously question whether they know what they are doing.  That probably means making the playoffs and winning a game against NE.  I can't predict whether a failure to achieve that would lead to one or both being fired, but, depending on how it all unfolds, it could very well land them in the hot seat.  

100%

 

A win against the Patriots would be a start. McDermotts been absolutely dominated by BB to this point.

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4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Four or five years? Seriously?

 

Tell me who the last franchise was with the same regime that won in their fourth year after three straight mediocre seasons?

 

You don't get 5 years in this league with 4 straight mediocre years. Just doesn't happen. 

 

Anything less than 9 wins is disappointing IMO. 

I can pretty much guarantee that in his interview, McDermott did not tell Pegula he was going to completely tear down the team that Rex coached to a .500 record and that the process would take 4-5 years.  

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Four or five years? Seriously?

 

Tell me who the last franchise was with the same regime that won in their fourth year after three straight mediocre seasons?

 

You don't get 5 years in this league with 4 straight mediocre years. Just doesn't happen. 

 

Anything less than 9 wins is disappointing IMO. 

 

 

Sorry, that's not a difficult challenge, Scott.

 

The Harbaugh Niners are a recent one. They reloaded with Harbaugh and a few extra guys. And it had been an awful lot more than three mediocre seasons, and yet that FO was not turned out, they'd been one long regime under McCloughan and Baalke for around eight years, a regime that kept chugging right along. The Texans didn't win ten games till the 6th year of Rick Smith's tenure at GM. Look at Ozzie Newsome's first four years in Baltimore.  Look at the Jags' current GM, Caldwell. Four very mediocre years from 2013 to 2016 and he's still there. So that's just wrong that you don't get 5 years after 4 straight mediocre years. It's not all that common but it happens. The way it actually works is that some owners have patience and some don't.

 

And that's fine that you think less than 9 wins would be disappointing. Unless your real last name is Pegula, it's hard for me to care whether you'll be disappointed. Not that I'd be thrilled myself. But if it happens and they win seven or eight and show signs of progress, I'll understand why they keep McDermott and Beane.

Edited by Thurman#1

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Posted (edited)

 

 

 

42 minutes ago, mannc said:

I can pretty much guarantee that in his interview, McDermott did not tell Pegula he was going to completely tear down the team that Rex coached to a .500 record and that the process would take 4-5 years.  

 

 

I'd agree. He said he was going to tear down the Rex team and that the process was going to take time. Why would he say it would take 4-5 years when there certainly was a chance it would only take three, not a great chance, but a chance.

 

 

 

 

47 minutes ago, mannc said:

I'm not going to get into what the Pegulas "knew" about how the first couple years would play out or how much they like McBeane; that's nothing but speculation.

 

Here's the situation:  Through two years, McBeane has the same record as the Rex Ryan regime, and they have been utterly noncompetitive against NE.  They need to show significantly better results this year or people are going to seriously question whether they know what they are doing.  That probably means making the playoffs and winning a game against NE.  I can't predict whether a failure to achieve that would lead to one or both being fired, but, depending on how it all unfolds, it could very well land them in the hot seat.  

 

It's not speculation that they told the Pegulas the cap situation was a disaster and promised to get it in great shape by the 2019 season. Which meant a rebuild. Nor is it speculation that they like this regime. They hired McDermott and it was about a week later that they loved him so much they put him in charge over Whaley who at that point looked like the one guy that they really trusted and liked. They absolutely do love this brain trust. Not that that means that if the team falls apart it would all be OK. But the Pegulas understand rebuilds.

 

And yeah, the first two seasons of that rebuild have not shown inspiring football, particularly against good teams. That's what rebuilds look like for the first two years.

 

And agreed, if they don't show progress this year I'd agree that the hot seat is a good possibility. But it won't require playoffs and winning a game against NE. It'll require observable progress.

Edited by Thurman#1

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8 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sorry, that's not a difficult challenge, Scott.

 

The Harbaugh Niners are a recent one. They reloaded with Harbaugh and a few extra guys. And it had been an awful lot more than three mediocre seasons, and yet that FO was not turned out, they'd been one long regime under McCloughan and Baalke for around eight years, a regime that kept chugging right along. The Texans didn't win ten games till the 6th year of Rick Smith's tenure at GM. Look at Ozzie Newsome's first four years in Baltimore.  Look at the Jags' current GM, Caldwell. Four very mediocre years from 2013 to 2016 and he's still there. So that's just wrong that you don't get 5 years after 4 straight mediocre years. It's not all that common but it happens. The way it actually works is that some owners have patience and some don't.

 

And that's fine that you think less than 9 wins would be disappointing. Unless your real last name is Pegula, it's hard for me to care whether you'll be disappointed. Not that I'd be thrilled myself. But if it happens and they win seven or eight and show signs of progress, I'll understand why they keep McDermott and Beane.

 

 

I'd agree. He said he was going to tear down the Rex team and that the process was going to take time. Why would he say it would take 4-5 years when there certainly was a chance it would only take three, not a great chance, but a chance.

I don't disagree, in that I assume Beane, as a GM, has a significantly longer leash than McDermott does.  Everyone assumes that the two are attached at the hip and that if one goes, they both go.  I don't think that's necessarily the case.  If the Bills go 6-10 again this year and McDermott once again looks like a deer in headlights against Belichick, then Beane might feel pressure to make a difficult decision.  

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sorry, that's not a difficult challenge, Scott.

 

The Harbaugh Niners are a recent one. They reloaded with Harbaugh and a few extra guys. And it had been an awful lot more than three mediocre seasons, and yet that FO was not turned out, they'd been one long regime under McCloughan and Baalke for around eight years, a regime that kept chugging right along. The Texans didn't win ten games till the 6th year of Rick Smith's tenure at GM. Look at Ozzie Newsome's first four years in Baltimore.  Look at the Jags' current GM, Caldwell. Four very mediocre years from 2013 to 2016 and he's still there. So that's just wrong that you don't get 5 years after 4 straight mediocre years. It's not all that common but it happens. The way it actually works is that some owners have patience and some don't.

 

And that's fine that you think less than 9 wins would be disappointing. Unless your real last name is Pegula, it's hard for me to care whether you'll be disappointed. Not that I'd be thrilled myself. But if it happens and they win seven or eight and show signs of progress, I'll understand why they keep McDermott and Beane.

Well I was referring to both McDermott and Beane. 

 

One or both will def go if there are four mediocre seasons in a row. 

 

And the Jags didn't turn things around till they hired Coughlin, an experienced guy who knows the league and knows how to win who made Marrone HC. 

 

The 49ers? They won right away after hiring Balke as GM and Harbaugh as HC in 2011 and continued to win for 3 more years. Big difference from the McBeane situation. Balke has proven he can build a winning team so you can at least understand why he's still around. McBeane haven't proven or won jack *****. 

Edited by ScottLaw

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6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Four or five years? Seriously?

 

Tell me who the last franchise was with the same regime that won in their fourth year after three straight mediocre seasons?

 

You don't get 5 years in this league with 4 straight mediocre years. Just doesn't happen. 

 

Anything less than 9 wins is disappointing IMO. 

Anything less than 9 wins is disappointing, period.

 

I get it. These guys do seem to have a plan. Unless that plan yields wins in year 3, it's time to start seriously questioning whether they know what they're doing.

 

I'm not even predicting failure. I'm not playing the what-if game. I just notice some really low expectations creeping around the board. Plans are great. Wins are better.

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36 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Anything less than 9 wins is disappointing, period.

 

I get it. These guys do seem to have a plan. Unless that plan yields wins in year 3, it's time to start seriously questioning whether they know what they're doing.

 

I'm not even predicting failure. I'm not playing the what-if game. I just notice some really low expectations creeping around the board. Plans are great. Wins are better.

Yep.

 

No plan to win in the NFL should take more than 3 years. 

 

If they win 8 but are competitive game in and game out you can live with it, but a 7 or 8 win season with more BB ownage and blowouts and the McBeane hot seat should be on fire. 

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On 5/10/2019 at 1:22 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

I'd agree. He said he was going to tear down the Rex team and that the process was going to take time. Why would he say it would take 4-5 years when there certainly was a chance it would only take three, not a great chance, but a chance.

 

 

 

 

 

It's not speculation that they told the Pegulas the cap situation was a disaster and promised to get it in great shape by the 2019 season. Which meant a rebuild. Nor is it speculation that they like this regime. They hired McDermott and it was about a week later that they loved him so much they put him in charge over Whaley who at that point looked like the one guy that they really trusted and liked. They absolutely do love this brain trust. Not that that means that if the team falls apart it would all be OK. But the Pegulas understand rebuilds.

 

And yeah, the first two seasons of that rebuild have not shown inspiring football, particularly against good teams. That's what rebuilds look like for the first two years.

 

And agreed, if they don't show progress this year I'd agree that the hot seat is a good possibility. But it won't require playoffs and winning a game against NE. It'll require observable progress.

 

 

What a crock of *****.:lol:

 

You excuse makers could get some traction if you stopped exaggerating the cap situation.

 

Even with all the dead money Beane created they had average spending money in UFA in 2018 and huge cap room in 2019.

 

Beane hasn't been particularly effective with the cap........his Lotulelei contract is one of the worst in team history.........he threw $3M away on a one week tryout of Corey Coleman.......he just was fortunate to have inherited a team that had a lot of expiring contracts and chose not to retain an All Pro like Gilmore or a guy like Woods who put up 1200 yards receiving last year etc..    He's instead spent most of his money on middling FA's hoping to create some kind of synergy between that and McDermott's coaching.  

 

Unfortunately it didn't work last season........he was 0-9 in FA and this year he's got 17 new additions with similar pedigrees.........hopefully it works out better.

 

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On 5/7/2019 at 11:28 AM, BisonMan said:

"Bills fail to draft WR in 2019, upsetting fans" - typical headline

 

McBeane are smaaaart.

 

Trust the process.......

 

I personally would have loved for them to trade up for DK at around pick 58 to 59. I would have loved for them to take a chance on him as a Mike Evan's type deep threat even with the health concerns as at that pick you can take a chance. But I don't think any fan can really be that upset with their decision to draft Knox and Single in the 3rd round. Both were players of need even if some didn't feel the value was there. 

 

For one the team not drafting a WR means that they like what they have on the roster behind Brown and Beasley. They likely think that there is a good chance Foster and or Zay can develop into a reliable WR. I remember NY Giants fans in the 2007 off-season were bitching how the team didn’t sign any notable free agents. I forgot which pundit said it but he said that if a team has some cap space and doesn’t make any major acquisitions it probably means they like what they have on the roster. 

 

That was my interpretation of the Bills draft. They signed Brown and Beasley (so it is not like they are just rolling over the same core that didn’t produce) and they like Zay and Foster behind them. In 2020 if they need some more help they can go to the draft or find another player via trade or free agency. 

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On 5/10/2019 at 12:38 PM, ScottLaw said:

100%

 

A win against the Patriots would be a start. McDermotts been absolutely dominated by BB to this point.

We were a team expected to win 3 games last year by many analysts, yet we kept it close with a journeyman QB on MNF... and the other game was our rookie QB’s first game in NE...if you were anticipating anything other than 2 losses to the super bowl champs, perhaps your expectations were a little unrealistic.

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