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Peace Frog

(Good Read) Which Positions Are the Safest, Riskiest at the Top of the NFL Draft?

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Posted (edited)

With the draft right around the corner (11 days, 6 hrs, 9 mins as of this posting, but who's counting?), I thought this informative article would show people a little draft history.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

Edited by Peace Frog
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Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average.

 

I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure.

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7 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average.

 

I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure.

 

I wonder if it's because those positions play the most similar from college to pro game?

Qb, wr, rb probably see the biggest differences in college career pro schemes, so they gave the hardest transition, as well as they are the hardest to project.

I wonder if teams reach for them more often as well, where a ot/ol or lb are typicy but drafted high unless they are clearly a game changer

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17 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average.

 

I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure.

 

I think there is a chance Devin White falls to 9.  

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

I think there is a chance Devin White falls to 9.  

 

He's pretty good.

I mean I've got my top3 (Oliver, hock, DK, in no particular order) but I wouldn't be too upset with white at #9 if he is there.

Edited by SouthNYfan
Typo

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Interesting. Safety looks fairly reliable although I'm then reminded of Lil' Donte who was a pro-bowler.

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The study shows why I have concerns with people saying we should take a WR or TE at 9.  It smells of over-reaching for need vs. using the pick wisely.

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I've always thought DT was dangerous to draft high. Just strikes me as a pretty underwhelming position to draft high. On the flipside I feel like centers should be taken much higher. TE is another position i feel that deserves more respect and drafted more urgently. 

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37 minutes ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I wonder if it's because those positions play the most similar from college to pro game?

 Qb, wr, rb probably see the biggest differences in college career pro schemes, so they gave the hardest transition, as well as they are the hardest to project.

 

With the combine it's really easy to scout who the best athletes are, so somebody who's a great athlete that plays a position that's similar to college ball is a good player. I could see this being why Guard, Safety and Linebacker are the safest. 

 

In most cases, it's a lot harder to scout a position where the skills and skill level changes a lot. Quarterback especially is the most overdrafted position and I'm not convinced anybody has a clue how to evaluate them.

 

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Wish they would've separated DE and DT.

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2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Wish they would've separated DE and DT.

My hunch is that DT would be "safer" than DE. There seems to be an Aaron Maybin or 2 in the first round of every draft.

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19 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

My hunch is that DT would be "safer" than DE. There seems to be an Aaron Maybin or 2 in the first round of every draft.

 

I think DT is safer, with a higher floor generally

I think there are less all pro elite DT that de though as well

I really do think they should have separated them

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4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Wish they would've separated DE and DT.

 

You've gotta keep'em separated.

 

 

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5 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

The study shows why I have concerns with people saying we should take a WR or TE at 9.  It smalls of over-reaching for need vs. using the pick wisely.

I would only have concerns with what people say if I thought Brandon Beane listens to anybody outside the team structure when it comes to making a draft pick.  Fans can spout foolishness all they want.  LOL

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I wonder how much a list like this might be influenced by a lack of consensus over the best players at positions that are the "most safe".

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Hmm. I wonder if this is just a numbers issue.  In each conference, there are two guards, two tackles, two safeties, and four linebackers named All-Pro.  Typically there is only one TE.  That would not explain everything like the fact only a single center is named and they have a high success rare at least two WRs are named and they have a low success rate.    

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12 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average.

 

I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure.

 

Could be LB as well.

 

Maybe the Devins

 

 

 

TEs do have second highest rate of prow bowlers , just saying ... (Hockenson)

 

 

Interesting RBs have been bigger busts than QBs.

 

 

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They provided decent logic as to why it's not wise to use "how many became All-Pros," as an indicator.

 

However, they lost me when they said they'd use, "how many became Pro Bowlers," instead.  Stopped reading right there.

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Posted (edited)

This is a good link but it omits something of great importance imo.

 

Tre White is a very good player. I personally think that he is already better than Gilmore. He is anything but a bust. Donte Whitner somehow made the pro bowl. A case could be made (I don't buy it) that he was "good." 

 

Now, were they good draft picks? Of course not!!! These  picks were horrid and self defeating.....based on who they passed on. The Bills walked right by 2 young, promising quarterbacks for White. One had won a national title by carrying his team, the other might now be the best player in football.

In Whitner's case, they passed on Ngata, a wonderful player who had a high ceiling.

 

What I am saying is that there is more to an NFL draft than players being "good" or even busting out. I think that when looking back upon a draft, a critical rating factor should be the list of great players, some at critically important positions, that a team passes on. 

 

These pros are paid well to identify talent, no to take a seemingly safe road and "play not to lose" ala Jauron.

 

jmo.

Edited by Bill from NYC
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The game changes over time. The League reacts to that just like traders do to market swings. 

 

Those saying 9 is too high to take a TE will be surprised if Denver takes Hock at the 10 spot. He’s going to be a difference maker wherever he lands. I doubt he makes it past the Broncos if The Bills trade down. 

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2 hours ago, Nanker said:

The game changes over time. The League reacts to that just like traders do to market swings. 

 

Those saying 9 is too high to take a TE will be surprised if Denver takes Hock at the 10 spot. He’s going to be a difference maker wherever he lands. I doubt he makes it past the Broncos if The Bills trade down. 

 

Yeah I tend to agree - if you end up looking at the top 3:  Kelce, Ertz, Kittle - Those are legit top 15 guys in catches and yards, and are big red zone targets.  All of them are capable blockers too. 

 

If Hock's a great blocker and athletic enough to get to that level - it makes him a top 10 in the draft player.  His combine numbers don't show some of his elite abilities in getting open and blocking either.

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6 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Success is all about who you pick... Not the position.

 

This is both true and Beane's probable opinion.

 

But I think it would be hubris to ignore the statistical data.  It ought to factor in the decision making process somewhere.  

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