Ranking AFC Playoff Hopefuls P1

[corta765]

This is the first half of a two part thread series I am doing pre draft. These rankings are complete arbitrary and basically ranking how I think the AFC playoff chances weigh out across the board. I understand things can change once the draft is done so that just means I can do another one of these. This is for fun please do not let this wreck your day.

 

Playoff Locks:

Kansas City

New England

 

Betting against the Patriots is always a no go at this point and while I can absolutely see them slogging their way to 10-6 or 11-5 and regressing, I still think they are too hard to pick against. KC has wunderkid leading the way and the division is light after LAC.

 

Strong Contenders:

LA Chargers

Cleveland Browns

 

The Chargers return a great roster and the only pitfall they have would be Rivers getting injured but even then Tyrod can maintain the offense. Honestly Cleveland seems poised for one of those 13-3 seasons that completely reset's the franchise to a new orbit. The only flaw I see for Cleveland would be internal drama if they come out slow early in the seasons given the personalities they have. The other thing is both teams while strong locks need to prove they can do the playoffs something Cleveland hasn't done in forever and something LA has underachieved at many years before.

 

Playoff Hopefuls with a Flaw:

Buffalo Bills

NY Jets

Houston Texans 

Indianapolis Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Everyone of these teams has legitimate reasons to be hopeful for the playoffs but with an asterisk next to their name for one reason or another. The Bills have made sizeable FA improvements and have an excellent defense along with an easy strength of schedule. But Allen needs to improve and do a Trubisky type improvement to solidfy our playoff chances. The Jets are similar to Buffalo, but offensive line still needs some help and the defense should improve but holes still exist in their secondary and Greg Williams can be up and down as a coordinator. The Texans offensive line was nearly the worst in the NFL and they have made no additions while playing a far tougher schedule. There still is time, but Houston needs to shore up that line and the secondary will need time to grow. Indy made some additions but didn't really add a true impact player the way many thought. Luck had a great comeback year, but a more difficult schedule and continued growth on D is needed to keep moving forward. Pittsburgh finished getting rid of two all pro players and while the offense should be good I doubt it is the great unit you saw years prior. Additionally their defense needs a lot of work and they no longer have easy wins like the Browns on schedule. Minus the AFC East teams I think all of these teams have a solid chance to win their division, but consistency week in week out will determine their fate.

 

If Everything Goes Right They Can Have A Great Playoff Season:

Baltimore Ravens

Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars

Oakland Raiders

Tennessee Titans

 

Every NFL season there is one team who pulls that best case season where everything falls there way and they make a playoff appearance, sometimes even having that magically Jacksonville type run. All of these teams have flaws which typically limit there height unless everything goes perfect typically leading to a 6-10 through 8-8 type season with a lot of what if's due to their flaws. The Ravens lost a ton of talent this offseason plus defensive cord's now have a full offseason to study Jackson who didn't throw a ton and had a pretty solid blueprint shown on how to stop him in the playoffs. I think last year was Baltimore's best case scenario even if Jackson grows as a passer given their losses on D and lack of skill position players on offense. Denver still has a solid defense, but their offense which lacks elite skill players now needs to hope Joe Flacco finds his inner 2014 season all over. The Jaguars have a talented D which has bled a few players this past off season, but maybe Foles magic can propel them to the playoffs despite a much improved division. The Titans are kind of a mish mosh and Mariota is as Jackal and Hyde as QBs get. The Raiders are the one team who I could legitimately see have an 11-5 type season because Carr has in the past had good seasons and man does that offense have weapons. BUT the defense needs a lot of work and the offensive line is average.

 

Lets Just Go to the 2020 Draft:

Miami Dolphins

Cincinnati Bengals

 

Both of these teams are here and might as well just start planning for Tua or a great positional player. Miami I think is tanking and really just lacks talent everywhere. They finally admitted they need a true rebuild and with the gains the rest of the AFCE alone has made it will be a very tough first season for Brian Flores. Cincinnati has an older roster with Dalton leading the team who hasn't stayed healthy in forever. Additionally look at the Bengals schedule its a straight up buzz saw. I could see Cincy having one of those seasons where they end up 3-13 just because they are over matched weekly without many friendly games.

Edited April 9, 2019 by corta765

[Chris66]

I think you need to move indy and Houston up a category seeing as one of those teams will win the division. Pitt should also be up there as well.

That will leave 8 similiar teams vying for 2 wildcard spots. Should be an interesting season.

[corta765]

Just now, Chris66 said:

I think you need to move indy and Houston up a category seeing as one of those teams will win the division. Pitt should also be up there as well.

That will leave 8 similiar teams vying for 2 wildcard spots. Should be an interesting season.

 

I thought about that but HOU and IND will canabolize each other for wins and each have enough flaws that their QBs cannot completely mask. PIT missed the playoffs last year, Big Ben is a year older, the team shed some big names, and the defense has been regressing for years in a division which has a new talented bully. I think people live off PIT's laurels farr to much to what the reality is. Their closer to being a team like Atlanta which defense pulls the offense down most years then a true dominant juggernaut like in the past.

[row_33]

on average only 3 division winners have repeated since the 8x4 format began in 2002

 

and that's including the Pats owning their division , so basically 2 of the 7 other winners will repeat on average

 

the fun part is experts routinely pick 6 or 7 teams to repeat each preseason.

 

 

[corta765]

9 minutes ago, row_33 said:

on average only 3 division winners have repeated since the 8x4 format began in 2002

 

and that's including the Pats owning their division , so basically 2 of the 7 other winners will repeat on average

 

the fun part is experts routinely pick 6 or 7 teams to repeat each preseason.

 

 

 

Yep. That's why I have this as playoff locks. The NFL playoffs typically see about 33% or 4 new teams a post season. Realistically NE & KC should make it even if they don't win the division. LAC, HOU, & IND all should make it but history has shown that not to be the case like you said and that is not including the AFC North which most likely has a new division winner this year with PIT or CLE.

 

I would not be surprised if the AFC field looked something like this next year: Division Winners NE, LAC, IND, CLE WC: KC & BUF. I picked the Bills because of bias but swap any team like that in it is still 2 new teams and 3 new division winners.

Edited April 9, 2019 by corta765

[MJS]

I'm not ready to consider the Browns a serious contender. They get the hype from everyone, but I don't think they've earned it yet.

 

There have been plenty of times we've seen teams hyped in the off season only to see them struggle when games start. Last off season everyone considered the Jags a Superbowl contender and they fell flat on their faces.

[corta765]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

I'm not ready to consider the Browns a serious contender. They get the hype from everyone, but I don't think they've earned it yet.

 

There have been plenty of times we've seen teams hyped in the off season only to see them struggle when games start. Last off season everyone considered the Jags a Superbowl contender and they fell flat on their faces.

 

Mayfield just broke the rookie QB passing TD record. The list of QBs he passed is pretty freakin elite. I agree with generally not buying the hype but because of him leading that train I will for this time.

[MJS]

1 minute ago, corta765 said:

Mayfield just broke the rookie QB passing TD record. The list of QBs he passed is pretty freakin elite. I agree with generally not buying the hype but because of him leading that train I will for this time.

I get it. But we've seen great rookie seasons in the past. RGIII, Dak Prescott, etc. All options are still on the table.

[row_33]

17 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Yep. That's why I have this as playoff locks. The NFL playoffs typically see about 33% or 4 new teams a post season. Realistically NE & KC should make it even if they don't win the division. LAC, HOU, & IND all should make it but history has shown that not to be the case like you said and that is not including the AFC North which most likely has a new division winner this year with PIT or CLE.

 

I would not be surprised if the AFC field looked something like this next year: Division Winners NE, LAC, IND, CLE WC: KC & BUF. I picked the Bills because of bias but swap any team like that in it is still 2 new teams and 3 new division winners.

 

no argument against the Pats, the Chiefs are prime for a big fall (hunch....)

 

and two teams come out of nowhere each season, and all the experts tell us they saw it, but they picked 7 teams to repeat their division win

 

[corta765]

3 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

no argument against the Pats, the Chiefs are prime for a big fall (hunch....)

 

and two teams come out of nowhere each season, and all the experts tell us they saw it, but they picked 7 teams to repeat their division win

 

 

I could see the Chiefs having a season where the offense slows down enough that it can't cover for a very leaky defense and they end up 9-7 and miss the playoffs. I don't expect it to happen, but it certainly is in the realm of possibility.

[row_33]

11 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

I could see the Chiefs having a season where the offense slows down enough that it can't cover for a very leaky defense and they end up 9-7 and miss the playoffs. I don't expect it to happen, but it certainly is in the realm of possibility.

 

i would very much enjoy Andy Reid on the sidelines looking totally clueless, as he always does, but losing, so I don't have to hear what a genius he is.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

51 minutes ago, MJS said:

I'm not ready to consider the Browns a serious contender. They get the hype from everyone, but I don't think they've earned it yet.

 

There have been plenty of times we've seen teams hyped in the off season only to see them struggle when games start. Last off season everyone considered the Jags a Superbowl contender and they fell flat on their faces.

 

2nd year QB - 2 diva WRs - rookie HC... what could go wrong?!

[GunnerBill]

I'd have a separate category for Oakland it is the "So when can we reasonably get out of this 10 year contract disaster?" category.

[corta765]

12 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

2nd year QB - 2 diva WRs - rookie HC... what could go wrong?!

 

The two QB's Mayfield passed for the TD passing record by rookie QB were Peyton and Russel Wilson. While it is not a given, that is pretty elite company to be in.

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

The two QB's Mayfield passed for the TD passing record by rookie QB were Peyton and Russel Wilson. While it is not a given, that is pretty elite company to be in.

 

Though the record would have been set probably a fair bit higher had Deshaun Watson not suffered the ACL in 2017. He was on 19 with 9 games still to play when the injury happened.

[Rc2catch]

30 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

The two QB's Mayfield passed for the TD passing record by rookie QB were Peyton and Russel Wilson. While it is not a given, that is pretty elite company to be in.

Russel Wilson has never had much of a pass game, and Peyton’s was 20+ years ago when you were still allowed to play defense. Let’s not act like mayfield eclipsed some holy mark or nothing. He was on a losing team, that was behind a lot. And let’s not forget Chubb who made them into an actual nfl offense. Before him they were garbage. After about week 10 with chubbs big breakout is when they started to roll. Not downgrading mayfield but that TD rookie stat is no big deal 

[DCOrange]

I don't think Buffalo and the Jets are on the same tier as Houston/Indy/Pitt. I'd probably just move Buffalo and Jets down to the big blah tier that you have below them in the OP.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I don't think Buffalo and the Jets are on the same tier as Houston/Indy/Pitt. I'd probably just move Buffalo and Jets down to the big blah tier that you have below them in the OP.

 

I can see the argument for either category for the Bills and the Jets. It is all so dependant on Allen and Darnold. If the end of season promise both showed is real then the Bills and Jets are in the Houston / Indy / Pitt group. If those were false dawns then drop them down a tier.

[BmarvB]

Not sold on Cleveland yet. AFC north is wide open except for the Bengals. With improvements on the OL, Houston can move up a spot. Jets can move down (they're not ready yet)

[corta765]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can see the argument for either category for the Bills and the Jets. It is all so dependant on Allen and Darnold. If the end of season promise both showed is real then the Bills and Jets are in the Houston / Indy / Pitt group. If those were false dawns then drop them down a tier.

 

Exactly. Also remember SOS matters big time. The Bills and Jets are like 2nd and 3rd in the league. That stuff does matter because we have seen what happens when a team gets a soft schedule with an improving roster. HOU/IND/PIT all have significantly tougher schedules then what BUF/NY faces. If we were just going rosters alone I absolutely would have those three ahead, but this is just strictly playoff chances.

Edited April 9, 2019 by corta765

[GunnerBill]

Just now, corta765 said:

 

Exactly. Also remember it has to be remember SOS. The Bills and Jets are like 2nd and 3rd in the league. That stuff does matter because we have seen what happens when a team gets a soft schedule with an improving roster. HOU/IND/PIT all have significantly tougher schedules then what BUF/NY faces. If we were just going rosters alone I absolutely would have those three ahead, but this is just strictly playoff chances.

 

Yea it looks at this stage like a really good year for the AFC schedule wise. I think both the Bills and the Jets are very real playoff contenders if their QBs take a step forward (I expect both to).

[LABILLBACKER]

As long as Marsha breathes, NE is still the cream of the AFC. I can see KC taking a step back with Hunt gone and Hill under investigation. I have Indy as the #3 team considering how well Luck came back. At #4 I have a 2 team battle for the North between Pittsburgh & Cleveland. And the WC contenders would be Houston, LAC, & Buffalo.  We'll know a lot more after the draft and preseason. 

[billykay]

The Ravens are always in the hunt, because they have stability & an excellent head coach.

[corta765]

3 minutes ago, billykay said:

The Ravens are always in the hunt, because they have stability & an excellent head coach.

 

They lost a ton of talent on defense which has been their hallmark, their skill position players are incredibly weak minus TE, and their QB (who I do like) is going to be asked/forced to pass more something he did not excel at. They have a solid program but they have legitimate questions and look a decisive 3rd in that division.

[RyanC883]

4 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

I thought about that but HOU and IND will canabolize each other for wins and each have enough flaws that their QBs cannot completely mask. PIT missed the playoffs last year, Big Ben is a year older, the team shed some big names, and the defense has been regressing for years in a division which has a new talented bully. I think people live off PIT's laurels farr to much to what the reality is. Their closer to being a team like Atlanta which defense pulls the offense down most years then a true dominant juggernaut like in the past.

 

your spot-on about PITT.  PITT's D-Coordinator is awful, and they have missed on quite a few picks there.  Also, they need a backup for RB Connor who can play and entire game, and have giant ??'s at WR after JuJu.  I would not be surprised if PIT won 5 or 13 games.   So I think you have them in the right place.   

 

I would have Indy in the "In" category because  Indy will solve defense in the draft and win its division. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

Exactly. Also remember SOS matters big time. The Bills and Jets are like 2nd and 3rd in the league. That stuff does matter because we have seen what happens when a team gets a soft schedule with an improving roster. HOU/IND/PIT all have significantly tougher schedules then what BUF/NY faces. If we were just going rosters alone I absolutely would have those three ahead, but this is just strictly playoff chances.

 

I don't know the Jets schedule, but I don't think the Bills schedule looks any easier than last year's. At the end of the day, I think the playoffs are only within reach if Allen takes a major step forwards (which is absolutely possible but not something I'm willing to count on).

Edited April 9, 2019 by DCOrange

[MJS]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea it looks at this stage like a really good year for the AFC schedule wise. I think both the Bills and the Jets are very real playoff contenders if their QBs take a step forward (I expect both to).

It would be amazing to send 3 AFC East teams to the playoffs. That would definitely peak national interest.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, MJS said:

It would be amazing to send 3 AFC East teams to the playoffs. That would definitely peak national interest.

 

I have said 3 team race for AFCE beyond Thanksgiving. I'm sticking to that. Still think Pats end up in 1st but I think there will be 3 genuine chances going into Thanksgiving.  

[row_33]

What AFC division is most likely to feast from the weakest NFC matchup this year, kind of handing a 4-0 to all teams in the AFC division and a good jump on the WC spots?

 

 

Edited April 9, 2019 by row_33

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I don't know the Jets schedule, but I don't think the Bills schedule looks any easier than last year's. At the end of the day, I think the playoffs are only within reach if Allen takes a major step forwards (which is absolutely possible but not something I'm willing to count on).

 

I definitely do think it looks easier. I think there are four games against three teams I expect to be drafting in the top 5 next year - Miami x2, Cincy and NYG. 

 

After that Washington, Baltimore, Tennessee and Pittsburgh are all in some form of transition.  Denver I still don't think are good, Dallas are a tough team but not unbeatable. 

 

If they can win 7 or 8 of those 10 they will need 2 or 3 from Jets x2, Patriots x2, Eagles and Cleveland. I think this is the most favourable Bills schedule in a number of years. Fingers crossed they make it count.

[row_33]

i'd speculatively rank the NFC North as the weakest division (IMHO)

 

which goes to the AFC West to feast on in 2019

 

 

[corta765]

49 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

your spot-on about PITT.  PITT's D-Coordinator is awful, and they have missed on quite a few picks there.  Also, they need a backup for RB Connor who can play and entire game, and have giant ??'s at WR after JuJu.  I would not be surprised if PIT won 5 or 13 games.   So I think you have them in the right place.   

 

I would have Indy in the "In" category because  Indy will solve defense in the draft and win its division. 

 

Yea INDY I would say would be my division pick I just wished they added more impact on offense.

[corta765]

47 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

I don't know the Jets schedule, but I don't think the Bills schedule looks any easier than last year's. At the end of the day, I think the playoffs are only within reach if Allen takes a major step forwards (which is absolutely possible but not something I'm willing to count on).

 

Agreed. Just saying strength of schedule does play a role because Buffalo, NYJ, & NE will basically have two very very winnable games with Miami which other teams do not get and if you have more games less competitive it can allow you to inflate your record a bit.

[1ManRaid]

I'm sure it's a great analysis but I just can't get over the unnecessary apostrophe in "Hopeful's".  

 

Great, now that is probably in my autocorrect...

[DCOrange]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I definitely do think it looks easier. I think there are four games against three teams I expect to be drafting in the top 5 next year - Miami x2, Cincy and NYG. 

 

After that Washington, Baltimore, Tennessee and Pittsburgh are all in some form of transition.  Denver I still don't think are good, Dallas are a tough team but not unbeatable. 

 

If they can win 7 or 8 of those 10 they will need 2 or 3 from Jets x2, Patriots x2, Eagles and Cleveland. I think this is the most favourable Bills schedule in a number of years. Fingers crossed they make it count.

 

Just comparing to last year, the games that are different are:

 

Last year:

Chargers - good

Vikings - meh

Packers - meh

Texans - meh

Colts - good

Bears - good

Jaguars - bad

Lions - bad

 

This year:

Giants - bad

Cowboys - good

Redskins - bad

Eagles - good

Browns - good

Steelers - good

Bengals - bad

Broncos - meh

 

I think one of the Giants/Bengals will end up being more competitive than people expect, but either way, I think this year's slate is at least on par with last year's, if not more difficult. Jets should obviously be improved as well (while the Dolphins should be worse).

 

Last year's schedule looked more difficult when it came out than this year's does, but the Jags, Vikings, and Packers were all pretty big disappointments. That could obviously happen this year too, but for now at least, I think this year's slate looks to be on par or stronger.

Edited April 9, 2019 by DCOrange

[quinnearlysghost88]

AFCN: Browns

AFCS: Colts

AFCW: KC

AFCE: Bills (Brady's retiring after the draft)

[corta765]

16 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

I'm sure it's a great analysis but I just can't get over the unnecessary apostrophe in "Hopeful's".  

 

Great, now that is probably in my autocorrect...

 

edited!

[John from Riverside]

Strong playoffs - Cleveland Browns

 

Really?  I dont care who they have drafted or gotten in free agence....they ARE STILL the Browns

[row_33]

18 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Strong playoffs - Cleveland Browns

 

Really?  I dont care who they have drafted or gotten in free agence....they ARE STILL the Browns

 

The Browns are somehow the favourite of fans who think sugar plum fairy whim wishes are so important that everyone should have to listen and agree with them...

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I definitely do think it looks easier. I think there are four games against three teams I expect to be drafting in the top 5 next year - Miami x2, Cincy and NYG. 

 

After that Washington, Baltimore, Tennessee and Pittsburgh are all in some form of transition.  Denver I still don't think are good, Dallas are a tough team but not unbeatable. 

 

If they can win 7 or 8 of those 10 they will need 2 or 3 from Jets x2, Patriots x2, Eagles and Cleveland. I think this is the most favourable Bills schedule in a number of years. Fingers crossed they make it count.

 

I'm hoping that they're competitive in every game.  You're going to lose games to teams you should beat (especially with a young QB), but I'd love to take at least one from NE, Philly, Pitt, or Cleveland.