This Is Why Spending Big $ For A RB Is Not Wise:

[LSHMEAB]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

No doubt. I'm not saying we should be investing firsts in RBs; just that the Bills have been historically terrible in later-round RB evaluation. Btw, did you see my addition above about Dwayne Wright and Ralph? Remember that? Incidentally, Shady's 2017 season was measurably better than anything Bell ever put up ...

I understand what you're saying here as it applies to the Bills because they've really been quite poor at evaluating late round RB's. However, the most productive RB the Bills have had since TT was FredEx and he was plucked off the scrapheap by Levy. RB's may not be "dime a dozen," but there seems to be an inordinate amount of successful RB's who were drafted late or not drafted at all compared to other positions. When you consider the shelf life of a RB, the RELATIVE interchangeability, and the FA price tag, it just doesn't make a ton of sense to draft one in the first round. I think it makes more sense for a team like the Pats who are already "there" and also picking in the 30's.

 

If you take one top 10, he better damn well be a Todd Gurley and not a CJ Spiller.  

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah you aren't going to find many future 10K rushing yard RB's late in the draft.

Hell, even Shady was taken with the 53rd pick. Not exactly late, but not top 10.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

6 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I understand what you're saying here as it applies to the Bills because they've really been quite poor at evaluating late round RB's. However, the most productive RB the Bills have had since TT was FredEx and he was plucked off the scrapheap by Levy. RB's may not be "dime a dozen," but there seems to be an inordinate amount of successful RB's who were drafted late or not drafted at all compared to other positions. When you consider the shelf life of a RB, the RELATIVE interchangeability, and the FA price tag, it just doesn't make a ton of sense to draft one in the first round. I think it makes more sense for a team like the Pats who are already "there" and also picking in the 30's.

 

If you take one top 10, he better damn well be a Todd Gurley and not a CJ Spiller.  

Hell, even Shady was taken with the 53rd pick. Not exactly late, but not top 10.

 

....so do you think it is fair to evaluate NOW versus THEN?.....don't we need to evaluate the "pickers"?......17 years of "F Troop" running the show post Polian versus what is shaping up to be a solid managerial/coaching corp can make a world of difference....2018 draft/UDFA signings isn't a bad indicator IMO.........

Edited January 28, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I understand what you're saying here as it applies to the Bills because they've really been quite poor at evaluating late round RB's. However, the most productive RB the Bills have had since TT was FredEx and he was plucked off the scrapheap by Levy. RB's may not be "dime a dozen," but there seems to be an inordinate amount of successful RB's who were drafted late or not drafted at all compared to other positions. When you consider the shelf life of a RB, the RELATIVE interchangeability, and the FA price tag, it just doesn't make a ton of sense to draft one in the first round. I think it makes more sense for a team like the Pats who are already "there" and also picking in the 30's.

 

If you take one top 10, he better damn well be a Todd Gurley and not a CJ Spiller.  

I think the mid-second round is the sweet spot for RBs - not an overinvestment, but early enough to nab a truly talented player. McCoy, Bell, Mixon, Derrick Henry, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Travis Henry ... lotta talent historically in that round. 

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

....so do you think it is fair to evaluate NOW versus THEN?.....don't we need to evaluate the "pickers"?......17 years of "F Troop" running the show post Polian versus what is shaping up to be a solid managerial/coaching corp can make a world of difference....2018 draft/UDFA signings isn't a bad indicator IMO.........

Yeah. I wasn't specifically referencing THIS regime. Just taking a panoramic shot of the Bills. These guys haven't even drafted a RB. Ivory was a decent acquisition. Tolbert was awful. Gonna be tough sledding for any RB until they fix the line.

[Punching Bag]

On 1/25/2019 at 12:29 PM, formerlyofCtown said:

Shoulda kept Lynch.

Lynch in Buffalo was a one incident away from a year suspension and was being beaten on field by other backs - he was acting like he did not want to be there.

On 1/25/2019 at 1:08 PM, stuvian said:

is the 2017 RB class that great or is today's tackling that lousy?

 

Yes.

On 1/25/2019 at 5:13 PM, YodaMan79 said:

*Hunt will not command top dollar.  He's going to have to take a low guarantee, short term "show me deal".  Perfect for a team like the Bills, and I think good for Hunt.  A low tier media market could be what he needs to get back into the league, mentally.  If you keep McCoy, Hunt would be a nice 50/50 option early in the year, and as the season progresses you could phase the egotistical, washed up and locker room cancer out.  Players on the 90s teams did far worse than Hunt, and they're now lauded, so please spare me the moral high ground position.  

 

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic, idiotic or opening yourself up to a lot of ridicule?  Hopefully sarcastic...

[Punching Bag]

4 hours ago, mannc said:

It’s a sad list, but what’s more relevant, ancient Bills’ draft history, or recent league-wide experience, where good-great RBs are found in all rounds of the draft and even in UDFA?  

 

Notice he neglected to include our FA RB who beat out our 1st round RB on the field because it would put a hold in his argument.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

Yeah. I wasn't specifically referencing THIS regime. Just taking a panoramic shot of the Bills. These guys haven't even drafted a RB. Ivory was a decent acquisition. Tolbert was awful. Gonna be tough sledding for any RB until they fix the line.

 

 

...certainly agree bud....never understood the Tolbert signing...production?...hardly...locker room leadership?....maybe but questionable...agree on Ivory.....,...Murphy, Jones, & Ford showed some dribs and drabs along the way....BUT...they certainly need to find a later RB draft pick while simultaneously  fixing the OL........Shady remains a huge question mark, but don't see him as the featured back....and is the $6 mil tariff worth a situational guy?....Allen definitely needs the running game to be a respected threat and right now it is not IMO...

[Bing Bong]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

Gurley is a very poor example.  The Rams did not miss a beat with CJ Anderson, who they picked up off the street.  Gurley might not be a dime a dozen, but he's about the sixth most important guy in that offense.  And I very much doubt an injury to Sony Michel would move the needle much for NE, even though he's a good back.   

WHA WHA WHAAAAT?!

 

I can't even argue with this. Your opinion lol.

 

I'll continue to think Gurley is immensely important if not the most important to one of the best offenses in football, and the Sony Michel's good days are exactly what the doctor ordered for the 2019 Patriots. CJ Spiller's a great back to have when Gurley his hurt, but he's not Gurley.

[mannc]

9 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

WHA WHA WHAAAAT?!

 

I can't even argue with this. Your opinion lol.

 

I'll continue to think Gurley is immensely important if not the most important to one of the best offenses in football, and the Sony Michel's good days are exactly what the doctor ordered for the 2019 Patriots. CJ Spiller's a great back to have when Gurley his hurt, but he's not Gurley.

Well, we certainly agree that Todd Gurley is better than CJ Spiller, but Spiller’s been retired for a while now, so it’s probably not a fair comparison.?

[formerlyofCtown]

39 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

Lynch in Buffalo was a one incident away from a year suspension and was being beaten on field by other backs - he was acting like he did not want to be there.

 

Yes.

 

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic, idiotic or opening yourself up to a lot of ridicule?  Hopefully sarcastic...

He was averaging 4.4 per carry.

[LSHMEAB]

11 minutes ago, mannc said:

Well, we certainly agree that Todd Gurley is better than CJ Spiller, but Spiller’s been retired for a while now, so it’s probably not a fair comparison.?

It is crazy to see that round fool running wild for the Rams, so it lends some credence to your argument. don't know the deal is with that, but I think Gurley is an ELITE player who brings consistent excellence at the position. Gurley's gotta be banged up. Hopefully the two weeks off helps.

[Bing Bong]

18 minutes ago, mannc said:

Well, we certainly agree that Todd Gurley is better than CJ Spiller, but Spiller’s been retired for a while now, so it’s probably not a fair comparison.?

Lol. Gurley better watch his back for CJ Spiller's comeback. CJ Anderson is the least of his problems with Spiller honing his RB craft at home.

[boater]

I didn't read all four pages of content, so please excuse any repetition I bring.

 

There is a large legion of Bills fans who feel you can fix any part of the game by throwing money at it (they are also known as the "Ralph is cheap" crowd).

 

How dare you insult them with facts.

[Bing Bong]

15 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

It is crazy to see that round fool running wild for the Rams, so it lends some credence to your argument. don't know the deal is with that, but I think Gurley is an ELITE player who brings consistent excellence at the position. Gurley's gotta be banged up. Hopefully the two weeks off helps.

I always thought CJ Anderson was a sneaky fat water bug.. pretty dangerous combo, agile, center of gravity at his knees, great blocker and catcher. Would have loved the Bills to have grabbed him with our RB woes.

 

Man has been my fantasy darling. Brought me waiver wire pickup 2 fantasy football chips

 

Name of the game. One Pierre Thomas got me my 3rd

 

Anyways. Gurley's another story. MVP candidate with all them TDs. There's something to be said with about an RB that can take it from the house from any good run/short pass play to from 20. Makes your red zone offense a piece of cake relatively.

Edited January 28, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[Bing Bong]

 

 

I'm all about Dem RBs. Don't have to pay top dollar. Draft well, get you a Corey Dillon, Blount, DeAngelo Williams, CJ Anderson. These guys make an offensive impact. But make sure you have a good coordinator and COMPETENT run blocking pleeaaaase Bills. 

[LSHMEAB]

16 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I always thought CJ Anderson was a sneaky fat water bug.. pretty dangerous combo, agile, center of gravity at his knees, great blocker and catcher. Would have loved the Bills to have grabbed him with our RB woes.

 

Man has been my fantasy darling. Brought me waiver wire pickup 2 fantasy football chips

 

Name of the game. One Pierre Thomas got me my 3rd

 

Anyways. Gurley's another story. MVP candidate with all them TDs. There's something to be said with about an RB that can take it from the house from any good run/short pass play to from 20. Makes your red zone offense a piece of cake relatively.

For sure. CJ Anderson is like a good Mike Tolbert. Really funny looking, effective back. Gurley is just a stud.

[BobbyC81]

18 hours ago, auburnbillsbacker said:

Didn't he drive while intoxicated, hit a woman with his car, then flee the seen of the crime?  

 

There was also the supposed mall incident when he took a $20 from a cop’s wife, who asked him to autograph it, and walked off with it.

[GunnerBill]

On ‎1‎/‎25‎/‎2019 at 5:25 PM, mannc said:

Umm, no.  The list in the OP would indicate a 100% success rate in first three rounds (Fournette was a terrible pick at 4 overall, but he's certainly a good back), and in fact all of the first 10 RBs selected have turned out to be good to great.  And even the ones selected after that have a high success rate.  

 

Foreman? He has had as many injuries as carries so far in the NFL.

[row_33]

On 1/25/2019 at 12:51 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

This isn't directly your point, but it's relevant. 

 

People always talk as though drafting a great college athlete is a sure bet for success in the pro's.

It's not.  Overall, the 1st round is something like 50% and 2nd and 3rd round 30% - not to get a star, just to get a capable quality NFL player.

I'm not saying "pay McCoy", or "draft a guy high in the 1st", just pointing out that it may not be so easy as "draft and use"

 

One thing is certain sure, if the QB is a bona-fide passing threat and the OL is solid at run blocking, the chances of RB success go way up.

 

 

 Is this due to fans and announcers drooling over stats piled up mostly against horribly outmatched cupcakes?

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by row_33

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, mannc said:

Gurley is a very poor example.  The Rams did not miss a beat with CJ Anderson, who they picked up off the street.  Gurley might not be a dime a dozen, but he's about the sixth most important guy in that offense.  And I very much doubt an injury to Sony Michel would move the needle much for NE, even though he's a good back.   

 

It is consistent with people believing Jared Goff is just a stiff who turns around and hands it off and does what McVay whispers in his ear during the play because they snap the ball so early. There was before the playoffs a genuine belief out there that the Rams offense was more reliant on Todd Gurley (fine back though he is) than Jared Goff. They are not, they never were, and some fans are gonna have to get used to the fact that Goff is a good Quarterback.

[Bing Bong]

14 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

For sure. CJ Anderson is like a good Mike Tolbert. Really funny looking, effective back. Gurley is just a stud.

Lol I don't really think that's his playing weight anyways. Weird he didn't stick with anybody this season, but if he doesn't stick with the Rams.

 

Git er done Beane and blam him and Shady can get it done. I think hr can be a #1 and he showed with the

Broncos, he can play with a subpar line. 2 3 down backs is great for Quarterbacks always having a safety blanket when in trouble. Ivory is all right but but those two I'd be perfectly fine with Bills running backs going in the next year. And it gives us the luxury to look for a Kamara in the draft later rounds.

 

Our running game can get better even without investing in offensive line IMO. And of course we are going to improve there.. hard not to! Drooling at it.

 

I'd pay for Bell 3 years if we end up not being able to spend enough money but that's a hot take I don't really want to argue about lol. Just saying we'd have a far better pass-catching group overnight.

 

And the spirit of the OP, no I don't want to invest in running backs too heavily but that goes for any position.. I DO want to spend our money this offseason while we have cap and few upcoming contracts to worry about anyway. Team building's more about your cap situation not exactly what positions your money is going. Elite players anywhere make it worth it so long as you're not jeopardizing strengthening up or retaining units going forward. Josh Allen on a rookie deal is a good enough reason for me to spend heavily on offense. That's precisely why the Zeke and Gurley contracts are working for their teams.

 

And learning how to win why you're not having a team cap hamstrung and have appropriate talent is huge for young quarterbacks. Don't think goff and Dak and Russell Wilson have such good starts their career otherwise before they become the best talent on offense

 

Same goes for Watson and Hopkins. I want to get good quick and presumably that's why we have the cap

Edited January 29, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[Bing Bong]

 

I love seeing a smart rub block from a running back! Very important high IQ position next to Quarterback

 

Marshall Faulk's best attribute and biggest reason for the greatest show on turf 

I'mo

Edited January 29, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[mannc]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Foreman? He has had as many injuries as carries so far in the NFL.

Starter for a playoff team.  Not great, but not a bust.

[metzelaars_lives]

On 1/25/2019 at 10:16 AM, Virgil said:

I think we’ve all learned in the past few years that it isn’t as simple as just having a solid runningback.  It’s about your offensive line, your scheme, your respectable passing game.  

 

Even the list you just posted only shows a 50% success rate in the first 3 rounds. That’s not a good thing. 

 

Teams shouldn’t pay for a guy who is aging or doesn’t fit their scheme. But if you have a guy who you know is good, fits your scheme, younger that 27, I think you absolutely pay him.  

 

We went through a phase of runningback by committee and some teams still do. It’s what keeps players like Kamara fresh.  But they also are going to pay him when it’s time. He’s changed their offense.  

 

Someone like Bell, if he were 2 years younger and didn’t have suspension issues?  I think he absolutely gets the 17 mil he’s looking for.  

 

End result, it’s not cut and dry about the position.  

50% success rate?  50% of them have made a Pro Bowl already.  100% of them are good.  Foreman was hurt all year but Houston still has high hopes for him.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, mannc said:

Starter for a playoff team.  Not great, but not a bust.

 

Starter? He was only activated off PUP in December had 7 carries for minus 1 yard and was 3rd string to Miller and the pedestrian Alfred Blue. For a third round pick he has been a disappointment to this point. 

[CommonCents]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Starter? He was only activated off PUP in December had 7 carries for minus 1 yard and was 3rd string to Miller and the pedestrian Alfred Blue. For a third round pick he has been a disappointment to this point. 

He tore his Achilles last year and never made it back. Billy O went on record at the beginning of the month saying it took Foreman forever to get healthy but he thinks he will be an excelllent player again next year. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, CommonCents said:

He tore his Achilles last year and never made it back. Billy O went on record at the beginning of the month saying it took Foreman forever to get healthy but he thinks he will be an excelllent player again next year. 

 

 

 

And he may well be. The argument was that they are 100% hits so far. Foreman is at best an incomplete.

[Bing Bong]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is consistent with people believing Jared Goff is just a stiff who turns around and hands it off and does what McVay whispers in his ear during the play because they snap the ball so early. There was before the playoffs a genuine belief out there that the Rams offense was more reliant on Todd Gurley (fine back though he is) than Jared Goff. They are not, they never were, and some fans are gonna have to get used to the fact that Goff is a good Quarterback.

Goff's an excellent quarterback. Underrated too IMO.

 

But if Todd Gurley is just a "fine back" with 1,800+ YFS and not considered 1a and 1b to Goff in the Rams offense than he is VASTLY underrated! It's synergy.. we need to stop attributing an offense's success with one player. Gurley provides a threat Goff has a luxury of having both the passing game, as a blocker, as keeping defenses honest on the pass, and making the redzone offense for the Rams a pick your poison situation. The coach is great, the QB, the RB, the OL. the refs aren't too shabby for the Rams either.. If they didn't have all these pieces, they wouldn't be in the SB.

 

No Goff, no SB. No Gurley, no SB. No McVay, no SB.

 

It's Gurley's nose for the end zone that is the driving force here. RB TDs are a godsend to offenses, they make the most important 7 point play so much easier for everybody.

Edited January 29, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Goff's an excellent quarterback. Underrated too IMO.

 

 

On this my friend we are very much agreed.

[Da webster guy]

Mack for Indy seems to be the typical solid college back with pretty good vision, Thurman type size at 5'11  209lbs, but just happens to be playing behind a great Oline with a solid passing attack.

 

Basically your passing offense needs to be good enough to keep a defense respectful of the throw, or you're running into a stacked box of NFL beasts all game.

 

It's a great debate, and an interesting topic because RB's can change the game, but any decent undrafted runner can get good numbers behind a great line.  I still laugh about Emmitt Smith's crazy numbers, they should have an asterisk next to them for all the runs he had a 10 foot wide hole you could drive a car through.

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, Da webster guy said:

Mack for Indy seems to be the typical solid college back with pretty good vision, Thurman type size at 5'11  209lbs, but just happens to be playing behind a great Oline with a solid passing attack.

 

Basically your passing offense needs to be good enough to keep a defense respectful of the throw, or you're running into a stacked box of NFL beasts all game.

 

It's a great debate, and an interesting topic because RB's can change the game, but any decent undrafted runner can get good numbers behind a great line.  I still laugh about Emmitt Smith's crazy numbers, they should have an asterisk next to them for all the runs he had a 10 foot wide hole you could drive a car through.

Mack is pretty good and he can catch. He is similar to Williams for KC. I’d be fine with a RB in that mold. 

 

NE used a first on Sony, he isn’t anything special. I’d rather a back like Mack in the 4th round. Heck he might be the better player straight up. 

 

Plenty of capable running backs out there, fix the oline and stop signing high mileage guys. It’s wasteful spending and it takes up a roster spot that would be better spent on a late round back or UDFA. 

[Orlando Tim]

On 1/28/2019 at 8:52 AM, YodaMan79 said:

Buffalo Timmy -- I agree with you 100%.  Players like Sanders, LT or even most recently Barkley would be worthy.  Emmitt is a prime example of what an OL can do.  Not saying he wasn't good, but I think his greatest ability was durability.  Draft and develop the best OL possible, then watch all the skill position players flourish!

I literally just had this conversation with an 18 year old cowboy fan. I told him to ask his Dad for one game where you finished game and said "thank God we got Emmitt" because he could not think of one-though he is young. Kid also said Barkley is worthy of my consideration-I did not see it this year but his team was awful so hard to tell. But clearly you are bright man so I will give the Barkley kid another look.

[Alphadawg7]

Sign Kareem Hunt.  

 

RB solved.

[Alphadawg7]

13 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Goff's an excellent quarterback. Underrated too IMO.

 

But if Todd Gurley is just a "fine back" with 1,800+ YFS and not considered 1a and 1b to Goff in the Rams offense than he is VASTLY underrated! It's synergy.. we need to stop attributing an offense's success with one player. Gurley provides a threat Goff has a luxury of having both the passing game, as a blocker, as keeping defenses honest on the pass, and making the redzone offense for the Rams a pick your poison situation. The coach is great, the QB, the RB, the OL. the refs aren't too shabby for the Rams either.. If they didn't have all these pieces, they wouldn't be in the SB.

 

No Goff, no SB. No Gurley, no SB. No McVay, no SB.

 

It's Gurley's nose for the end zone that is the driving force here. RB TDs are a godsend to offenses, they make the most important 7 point play so much easier for everybody.

 

Goff is not...yet...an excellent QB.  He doesn’t handle pressure well.  Chicago showed the blue print and he and the Rams offense have not been the same since.  

 

He isn’t even in the top 7 of the best QBs in the NFL right now and may not even be top 10.

 

Now he IS an excellent young QB, but he hasn’t reached the excellent overall QB pinnacle just yet.  He needs to improve some things to take that step towards being an excellent QB.