Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[transplantbillsfan]

4 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I added weeks 16 and 17 in and that brought Allen's on target rate down a bit to 73.7%. Outside of the clear throwaways, hail mary plays and obvious drops, I pretty much consider the incompletions to be misses even though some of those are obvious miscommunication plays between the wr and qb. I put it on Allen as a miss because he is the one targeting the wr and needs to make sure they are on the same page. 

 

In week 16 I had Allen going 26 of 39 for 66% (I have the full breakdown like the others but most are probably not interested in it). In reality Allen's stats were not good 20 of 41 for 217yds 1td and 2int. However, the yardage and touchdowns could have been much different as I saw 3 touchdown opportunities slipped through the Bills wrs hands. (1) Foster in sun was there and should have been a long td, (2) Foster at goaline miss timed his jump and let an opportunity slip away, (3) Logan Thomas let a big time throw slip threw his hands in the end zone. Catch 2 of 3 and the stats look very different as does the game.

 

In week 17 I had Allen being on target 17 of 24 passes at 70.8%. He had 7 misses in this game including the pick 6 which was a nice read by the defender. Still he accounted for 5tds and was pretty dynamic on the ground again. 

 

See in week 16 I saw 9 Incompletions that I thought were catchable. I actually made a note saying "maybe 8." On one of those passes a WR slipped. I saw 9 uncatchable in that game, but one of those appears to be a back shoulder throw that Zay doesn't turn around for. I saw 3 Throwaways, but one of those people might gripe with because it was the one with Allen escaping an inevitable safety in the EZ and flipping it to the sidelines. There was an RB (?) In the area but it looked to me like he was getting rid of the ball.

 

My week 17 numbers look similar to yours--I see you also account for 2 Throwaways--but I thought one of his Incompletions was catchable.

[racketmaster]

16 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

See in week 16 I saw 9 Incompletions that I thought were catchable. I actually made a note saying "maybe 8." On one of those passes a WR slipped. I saw 9 uncatchable in that game, but one of those appears to be a back shoulder throw that Zay doesn't turn around for. I saw 3 Throwaways, but one of those people might gripe with because it was the one with Allen escaping an inevitable safety in the EZ and flipping it to the sidelines. There was an RB (?) In the area but it looked to me like he was getting rid of the ball.

 

My week 17 numbers look similar to yours--I see you also account for 2 Throwaways--but I thought one of his Incompletions was catchable.

Yeah, I think its pretty close. I had 11 misses in week 16 and 7 misses in week 17. I will probably take a look at some other quarterbacks using the same criteria so I can see how Allen measures up. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Doing Carson Wentz right now.  Looking pretty good just a couple games in.  He was really given the reins of the offense, that's for sure.

 

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 79.4%

 

Throwaway/Spike %: 4.2%

 

Interceptable Pass %: 7.4%

 

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 88.5%

 

 

Wentz is getting a lot of balls batted and tipped; both at the line and en route to the WR.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 games through Wentz's rookie season:

 

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 83.6%

 

Throwaway/Spike %: 3.2%

 

Interceptable Pass %: 5.3%

 

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 88.2%

 

 

1st 5 games resemble the strong start I remembered for Wentz in his rookie year.

[GoBills808]

Do that work son

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm halfway through Wentz's rookie season.  He played all 16 games, so I'm through 8 games and 275 pass attempts... which is just 45 less than Allen attempted this year:

 

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 80.7%

 

Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2%

 

Interceptable Pass %: 5.9%

 

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 84.4%

 

 

 

And yes, his numbers are dropping off for good reason... he got significantly less accurate after his strong start.  His week 9 game vs the Giants is one of the worst I saw from any of the rookies.  He had 13 uncatchable passes.  That's the highest number I charted in any of the games.  Granted, he threw 47 passes, but those passes were the types of head-scratchers I'm sure the national media points to when they think of Allen.  

 

Let's see what Wentz's 2nd half of the season brings...

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I'm halfway through Wentz's rookie season.  He played all 16 games, so I'm through 8 games and 275 pass attempts... which is just 45 less than Allen attempted this year:

 

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 80.7%

 

Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2%

 

Interceptable Pass %: 5.9%

 

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 84.4%

 

 

 

And yes, his numbers are dropping off for good reason... he got significantly less accurate after his strong start.  His week 9 game vs the Giants is one of the worst I saw from any of the rookies.  He had 13 uncatchable passes.  That's the highest number I charted in any of the games.  Granted, he threw 47 passes, but those passes were the types of head-scratchers I'm sure the national media points to when they think of Allen.  

 

Let's see what Wentz's 2nd half of the season brings...

 

I can save you the work. I reviewed every throw of Wentz and Goff after their rookie year. From week 10 on Wentz was less accurate than Goff.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can save you the work. I reviewed every throw of Wentz and Goff after their rookie year. From week 10 on Wentz was less accurate than Goff.

 

Well, doesn't really save me the work because I'm trying to place these guys on a scale in context of each other.

 

As of right now Wentz is ranked #1. If what you say is true I wonder how much his numbers fall.

 

After him I think I'm gonna do the Golden Boy: Andrew Luck.

[C.Biscuit97]

Even though I think your study is biased because Of the conclusion you want, I definitely respect all the work you are doing. So salute.

 

that said, Wentz has never been under 60%.  Even though he wasn’t playing with NFL talent ain college, with the coach who was Allen’s college coach. 

[GoBills808]

48 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Even though I think your study is biased because Of the conclusion you want, I definitely respect all the work you are doing. So salute.

 

that said, Wentz has never been under 60%.  Even though he wasn’t playing with NFL talent ain college, with the coach who was Allen’s college coach. 

You need to find a flaw in the methodology to say the study is biased. 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Even though I think your study is biased because Of the conclusion you want, I definitely respect all the work you are doing. So salute.

 

that said, Wentz has never been under 60%.  Even though he wasn’t playing with NFL talent ain college, with the coach who was Allen’s college coach. 

 

The last game I watched of Wentz was maybe the worst game I saw from any of the rookies I saw accuracy-wise. 

 

He was for sure in what I charted as that game he had the biggest number of uncatchable passes and the highest percentage of uncatchable passes over the other rookies, but I'm talking anecdotally.  I'm talking about just how wildly off-target he was in that game.  He looked worse in that game than Allen looked in any game he played.

 

 

Whatever conclusions you may think I want, I chose to do this very simple uncatchable vs. catchable (ball hits--or can hit--palm of hand = Catchable vs ball doesn't hit--or can't hit--palm of hand = Uncatchable) because It severely diminishes any subjectivity in the matter.

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The last game I watched of Wentz was maybe the worst game I saw from any of the rookies I saw accuracy-wise. 

 

He was for sure in what I charted as that game he had the biggest number of uncatchable passes and the highest percentage of uncatchable passes over the other rookies, but I'm talking anecdotally.  I'm talking about just how wildly off-target he was in that game.  He looked worse in that game than Allen looked in any game he played.

 

 

Whatever conclusions you may think I want, I chose to do this very simple uncatchable vs. catchable (ball hits--or can hit--palm of hand = Catchable vs ball doesn't hit--or can't hit--palm of hand = Uncatchable) because It severely diminishes any subjectivity in the matter.

 

 

1) you do realize Allen had a game this year where he completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 int in a win, right?  How in the world could Wentz have a worse game than that?

 

2). For as bad as we say Allen’s weapons were, Wentz top receiver his rookie year was Jordan Trash Matthews.

[transplantbillsfan]

27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) you do realize Allen had a game this year where he completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 int in a win, right?  How in the world could Wentz have a worse game than that?

 

And in that game he threw 11 catchable passes, 5 uncatchable passes, 2 throwaways and had 1 pass batted/tipped.

 

That Interception was the 1 incompletion that should have been a catch.  It was to Andre Holmes and pretty much hit him right between the hands and bounced high into the air.  And if it didn't hit him in the hands, it pretty much would have embedded itself into his helmet.  That's how on-target that pass that counted not just as an incompletion but also as an interception was, and it's actually the perfect example of why maybe you should try this exercise rather than just pointing out stats, so thank you.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

22 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And in that game he threw 11 catchable passes, 5 uncatchable passes, 2 throwaways and had 1 pass batted/tipped.

 

That Interception was the 1 incompletion that should have been a catch.  It was to Andre Holmes and pretty much hit him right between the hands and bounced high into the air.  And if it didn't hit him in the hands, it pretty much would have embedded itself into his helmet.  That's how on-target that pass that counted not just as an incompletion but also as an interception was, and it's actually the perfect example of why maybe you should try this exercise rather than just pointing out stats, so thank you.

 

Yeah.  I won’t defend a nfl qb after 82 yards.  That’s depressing.  

 

But it when I get caught cheating on my girlfriend, I wil bring you in to defend me. 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) you do realize Allen had a game this year where he completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 int in a win, right?  How in the world could Wentz have a worse game than that?

 

2). For as bad as we say Allen’s weapons were, Wentz top receiver his rookie year was Jordan Trash Matthews.

Who at one point was the best WR we had on this team

 

Look I want to be careful with all the fact finding on Josh Allen this past year trying to prove him some sort of accurate QB

 

- I think his accuracy issues were way overblown....having said that especially in the first half of the season you could really tell he needed work.

- He was always a guy that was not supposed to be a stir and ready NFL QB.....so he overcome low expectations magnificently

- It gives me a lot of hope for the future.....because I expect him to make big jumps in performance year to year and he has a extremely high ceiling.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah.  I won’t defend a nfl qb after 82 yards.  That’s depressing.  

 

But it when I get caught cheating on my girlfriend, I wil bring you in to defend me. 

 

It's too bad you're so ridiculously biased you can't even have a reasonable conversation about accuracy.

 

Come back when you can do that....

 

 

 

and you should probably stop cheating on your girlfriend.  That's vile and disgusting.  Just break up with her.

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's too bad you're so ridiculously biased you can't even have a reasonable conversation about accuracy.

 

Come back when you can do that....

 

 

 

and you should probably stop cheating on your girlfriend.  That's vile and disgusting.  Just break up with her.

Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple.

[Foxx]

25 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple.

but, but......... "ball hits--or can hit--palm of hand = Catchable vs ball doesn't hit--or can't hit--palm of hand = Uncatchable"

?

[oldmanfan]

52 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple.

How many times does it have to be stated and proved that completion percentage does not equal accuracy?

[HappyDays]

58 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple.

 

Low completion percentage is a problem. But it doesn't equal accuracy. He needs to improve on reading the field and taking more easy throws on early downs. That will increase his completion percentage and efficiency whether he ever becomes more accurate or not.

[LSHMEAB]

5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

How many times does it have to be stated and proved that completion percentage does not equal accuracy?

Until Josh Allen's completion percentage is reflective of his superior accuracy. 

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Low completion percentage is a problem. But it doesn't equal accuracy. He needs to improve on reading the field and taking more easy throws on early downs. That will increase his completion percentage and efficiency whether he ever becomes more accurate or not.

I appreciate your posts and your generally optimistic nature, but at some point, the completion percentage will need to rise to justify all the catchable/precision vs accuracy stuff.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple.

 

I don't care if it'll always be questioned.

 

Climate change is still being questioned.

 

Evolution is still being questioned.

 

It's almost impossible to convince EVERYONE of just about anything, even if there's overwhelming evidence one way or another.

 

There are people with low completion %s because they're inaccurate and there are people with low completion %s due in larger part to other factors.  I care if he's accurate or not.  If his low completion % is due in large part to other factors rather than accuracy, his completion % will increase significantly once those other factors are resolved.

 

Edited February 8, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[LSHMEAB]

10 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I don't care if it'll always be questioned.

 

Climate change is still being questioned.

 

Evolution is still being questioned.

 

It's almost impossible to convince EVERYONE of just about anything, even if there's overwhelming evidence one way or another.

 

There are people with low completion %s because they're inaccurate and there are people with low completion %s due in larger part to other factors.  I care if he's accurate or not.  If his low completion % is due in large part to other factors rather than accuracy, his completion % will increase significantly once those other factors are resolved.

 

It doesn't matter that's it's questioned, but unless he gets it done, it WILL be. Do you believe it's possible to have a 10 plus year NFL career and never have the proper variables to sustain a quality completion percentage? At some point, it would be on Josh and not everyone around him. We're nowhere near that point. He was a rookie with a poor supporting cast. But it will continue to be an issue until the proper results are obtained.

[oldmanfan]

31 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Until Josh Allen's completion percentage is reflective of his superior accuracy. 

I appreciate your posts and your generally optimistic nature, but at some point, the completion percentage will need to rise to justify all the catchable/precision vs accuracy stuff.

Because people choose to be ignorant, I guess

[BringBackFlutie]

11 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

It doesn't matter that's it's questioned, but unless he gets it done, it WILL be. Do you believe it's possible to have a 10 plus year NFL career and never have the proper variables to sustain a quality completion percentage? At some point, it would be on Josh and not everyone around him. We're nowhere near that point. He was a rookie with a poor supporting cast. But it will continue to be an issue until the proper results are obtained.

You're absolutely right.  If his completion percentage doesn't improve over time, the common factor of Josh Allen's general playing style will eventually be more positively correlated to a low completion percentage than other factors relating to his job.  If he weren't to ever change over that time, the one thing that, statistically, could never be correlated with such, is his level of accuracy.

Edited February 8, 2019 by BringBackFlutie

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, BringBackFlutie said:

You're absolutely right.  If his completion percentage doesn't improve over time, the common factor of Josh Allen's general playing style will eventually be more positively correlated to a low completion percentage than other factors relating to his job.  If he weren't to ever change over that time, the one thing that, statistically, could never be correlated with such, is his level of accuracy.

And that is really my only point. There's a whole lot of work being done to justify his low completion percentage at JUCO, Wyoming, and with the Bills. At some point, it needs to be reflected by actual results.

 

I know one thing; he'll work his a** off from now until the start of the 2019 season to improve. There is no questing his work ethic. All we can do as Bills fans is hope for the best. 

[transplantbillsfan]

41 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

And that is really my only point. There's a whole lot of work being done to justify his low completion percentage at JUCO, Wyoming, and with the Bills. At some point, it needs to be reflected by actual results.

 

I know one thing; he'll work his a** off from now until the start of the 2019 season to improve. There is no questing his work ethic. All we can do as Bills fans is hope for the best. 

 

I wasn't doing the work to justify his low completion percentage.  I did the work to see how truly "inaccurate" Allen is in comparison with other rookies.

 

Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold have completion %s this year in the mid 50s, but there's not this widespread "he's inaccurate!!!" narrative with them.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold have completion %s this year in the mid 50s, but there's not this widespread "he's inaccurate!!!" narrative with them.

I undersaid and what you're doing and I applaud it.  And although you and others are correct that accuracy and completion percentage are different things, I'm almost not interested in knowing about his accuracy.  If his completion perception doesn't go up, he doesn't have a future. 

[John from Riverside]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I undersaid and what you're doing and I applaud it.  And although you and others are correct that accuracy and completion percentage are different things, I'm almost not interested in knowing about his accuracy.  If his completion perception doesn't go up, he doesn't have a future. 

Which is why he needs better targets

 

KB almost single handily destroyed this stat for Josh Allen

[transplantbillsfan]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I undersaid and what you're doing and I applaud it.  And although you and others are correct that accuracy and completion percentage are different things, I'm almost not interested in knowing about his accuracy.  If his completion perception doesn't go up, he doesn't have a future. 

 

You're right--though I think another argument to be made is that Allen doesn't have to be a 60+% passer simply because of what he does with his legs. 

 

But that's the other part of the point here.

 

Does the evidence suggest Allen's completion % is a reflection of his accuracy or does it suggest it's a reflection of his supporting cast, among other things?

 

If I were finding right now Allen's low completion % were a reflection of his accuracy, I think we'd all have a lot to worry about because I really don't think accuracy can be fixed to the point where you can turn a really inaccurate passer into a really accurate passer.

 

But that's not what I'm seeing.  I'm seeing a QB who's throwing the ball where he wants it to go and a lot of WRs/TEs/RBs who aren't coming up with the football.

 

And so I expect Allen's completion % to go up into the low 60s in the next year or 2 if Beane honestly goes about these next 2 offseasons as he claimed he would in surrounding Allen with talent.

[transplantbillsfan]

10 games now into Wentz's rookie season:

 

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 79.3%

 

Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2%

 

Interceptable Pass %: 6.3%

 

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 83.6%

[transplantbillsfan]

At least PFF acknowledges the serious issue with the dropsies our WRs had

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/08/buffalo-bills-top-10-drops-dropped-passes-josh-allen-kelvin-benjamin-zay-jones/

 

9th highest drop % in the league, according to them.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

at some point, the completion percentage will need to rise to justify all the catchable/precision vs accuracy stuff.

 

No it won't. You can be the most accurate QB in the world, if you aren't reading the field your completion percentage will be low. The whole point of this thread is that his accuracy isn't as big a deal as it's made out to be. Obviously he has other issues that are pretty common for rookies. If he develops in other areas without ever improving his accuracy he will have a high completion percentage regardless. Mahomes is not a precise passer but he completes a ton of passes because he knows when to take the easy throw.

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

No it won't. You can be the most accurate QB in the world, if you aren't reading the field your completion percentage will be low. The whole point of this thread is that his accuracy isn't as big a deal as it's made out to be. Obviously he has other issues that are pretty common for rookies. If he develops in other areas without ever improving his accuracy he will have a high completion percentage regardless. Mahomes is not a precise passer but he completes a ton of passes because he knows when to take the easy throw.

I've often said his recognition/ timing is more of an issue than pure accuracy. That can improve with time and that is the hope. Bottom line is that he's going to have to throw more passes that are caught by the intended target in order to take that next step.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

At least PFF acknowledges the serious issue with the dropsies our WRs had

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/08/buffalo-bills-top-10-drops-dropped-passes-josh-allen-kelvin-benjamin-zay-jones/

 

9th highest drop % in the league, according to them.

 

Just worth pointing out to all those who have written off Rosen and said he had a much better supporting cast... they are about the Bills in drops and have a similarly pathetic separation average for receivers. Arizona's passing weapons really were the corpse of Larry Fitzgerald's career and nothing else. 

[Dr. Who]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Just worth pointing out to all those who have written off Rosen and said he had a much better supporting cast... they are about the Bills in drops and have a similarly pathetic separation average for receivers. Arizona's passing weapons really were the corpse of Larry Fitzgerald's career and nothing else. 

I don't think there is any question Rosen's supporting cast was dreadful. He may turn out to be a good qb. Under similar circumstances, Allen's far greater athleticism allowed him to occasionally raise the level of play of those around him. His leadership even as a rookie was impressive. If you had a redraft today, how many teams would choose Rosen over Allen?

[row_33]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't think there is any question Rosen's supporting cast was dreadful. He may turn out to be a good qb. Under similar circumstances, Allen's far greater athleticism allowed him to occasionally raise the level of play of those around him. His leadership even as a rookie was impressive. If you had a redraft today, how many teams would choose Rosen over Allen?

 

Sometimes you don’t get that dream lineup that many on here feel a QB is entitled to.

 

lots of careers and the most holy and precious stats were hampered by this routine situation.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

37 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

Sometimes you don’t get that dream lineup that many on here feel a QB is entitled to.

 

lots of careers and the most holy and precious stats were hampered by this routine situation.

 

 

The role of fortune in human destiny used to be part of common human wisdom.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't think there is any question Rosen's supporting cast was dreadful. He may turn out to be a good qb. Under similar circumstances, Allen's far greater athleticism allowed him to occasionally raise the level of play of those around him. His leadership even as a rookie was impressive. If you had a redraft today, how many teams would choose Rosen over Allen?

 

It wasn't a point comparing the two. It was purely to point out to the folks who have argued that Rosen did less with more. He did less. But with an equally dreadful supporting cast. 

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Just worth pointing out to all those who have written off Rosen and said he had a much better supporting cast... they are about the Bills in drops and have a similarly pathetic separation average for receivers. Arizona's passing weapons really were the corpse of Larry Fitzgerald's career and nothing else. 

 

In watching Rosen I never thought he didn't belong.

 

Again part of the findings for me in this exercise is that all the rookies look promising, except Jackson who's too much of a gimmick with an awkward delivery.

 

But all of them have accuracy problems if Allen does.

 

 

 

 

And I still think Fitz has gas in his tank. Not dead yet.