Josh Allen’s Adjusted Completion Percentage = 72.7%

[C.Biscuit97]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Michael Thomas was an absolute beast at Ohio State (despite catching passes from JT Barrett most of the time), and Josh Gordon had over 1,600 receiving yards in a single season catching passes from Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, and Brian Hoyer.

 

Like I said, it's too early to say anything definitive about any of these guys.  Buffalo's WRs are largely awful though.

 

I think it's a bit of both on the latter.  Kittle was darn good in college, just under-utilized.  Dante Pettis and Trent Taylor were both draft sleepers of mine as well.  But, Kyle Shanahan does a really good job of only asking his players to do what they're good at, which is something that Daboll looks like he's starting to figure out.

Zay Jones was a beast in college.  And as good as Thomas was, why was the 47th pick?  And I think you would agree he’s not the same player on the Jags as he is on the Saints.

 

but as others have said, it’s probsbly in the middle. What do you think?  Who makes the other more - wr or QBs?  

1 minute ago, Kelly the Dog said:

You said they didn't have a number one on their roster so I responded to that. And a #2 pick in the supplemental is the same as a regular draft because you lose your #2 in the next draft. Dorsett has 27 catches and a couple TDs as a last resort, so he does play. Now you're saying Zay freakin' Jones is as good as Michael Thomas?! Thomas just gets elevated by his QB? Zay Jones is AWFUL. Thomas makes spectacular catches all the time. 

The guys who picked Allen, traded up for Zay and he was drafted higher than the guy at OSU!  I’m not a big Zay myself but if him and JuJu switch teams, Zay probably is a lot better (though I do agree JuJu is the far superior player and it’s ehy I wanted him badly in the draft).

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Zay Jones was a beast in college.  And as good as Thomas was, why was the 47th pick?  And I think you would agree he’s not the same player on the Jags as he is on the Saints.

 

but as others have said, it’s probsbly in the middle. What do you think?  Who makes the other more - wr or QBs?  

For a while now, when I think of Zay Jones, I think of this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Van_Dyke. I remember when he was drafted by the Jets as the first pick of the second round. Teams were high on him because of elite college production (he led the country in receptions and receiving yards), but the knock on him was the measurables: speed/quickness/leaping ability. We're re-living that episode, I fear. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by dave mcbride

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Who was a 5th round pick who had 700 yards in 4 years in college.  

I think you're falling into the same trap a lot of people do in using college stats to predict or define NFL quality. Kittle is legit, be it with Beathard or Mullens or whomever. 

 

You also need to take Shanahan into account. He's a very solid offensive mind. 

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So it's Nick Mullens that is responsible for George Kittle's performance?  Is that really where you're intending to take this point?

If so, it's not a very good argument. Kittle was tearing it up before Mullens ever got a start with the Niners.

[WideNine]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think you're falling into the same trap a lot of people do in using college stats to predict or define NFL quality. Kittle is legit, be it with Beathard or Mullens or whomever. 

 

You also need to take Shanahan into account. He's a very solid offensive mind. 

If so, it's not a very good argument. Kittle was tearing it up before Mullens ever got a start with the Niners.

 

What frustrates me most about evaluating kids coming up from college is the lack of finding out how many dropped passes they had.

 

Some may have been featured in very pass-heavy offenses and simply had enough passes their way to offset several drops to have great receiving stats.

 

The argument around Zay and Josh is not complete till you factor in that he dropped catchable passes all the time last year with Tyrod throwing them to him, dropped passes with a host of reserve QBs and Peterman throwing to him. The kid flat-out drops a lot of catchable balls and should not be in this conversation IMO.

 

Now if you had a solid receiver with great hands who suddenly tailed off because Josh was throwing him the ball - different story, and perhaps one that would deserve closer scrutiny.

[Kelly the Dog]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Zay Jones was a beast in college.  And as good as Thomas was, why was the 47th pick?  And I think you would agree he’s not the same player on the Jags as he is on the Saints.

 

but as others have said, it’s probsbly in the middle. What do you think?  Who makes the other more - wr or QBs?  

The guys who picked Allen, traded up for Zay and he was drafted higher than the guy at OSU!  I’m not a big Zay myself but if him and JuJu switch teams, Zay probably is a lot better (though I do agree JuJu is the far superior player and it’s ehy I wanted him badly in the draft).

Zay would have been replaced by James Washington long ago.   Probably by opening day.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Oh I did.  And that was more of a passing comment.  

 

But it I am getting a little tired about hearing how terrible our receivers are.  Who is Nick Mullens throwing to?  The Pats don’t have one receiver picked in the first round on their roster.  The Saints have a bunch of nobodies next to Rhomas, who was picked after Zay.  At some point, the qb needs to elevate the receivers. 

 

That said, Allen seems to have done that with Foster and that’s great to see.  But he is far from the only qb playing with questionable talent.

 

Allen needs to elevate his receivers?...  I watch a decent amount of football and NEVER see multiple drops per game like I do with our squad, let alone teams that have WR's that rarely make contested catches. 

 

Have you seen the stat about how Allen has to throw into tight windows every play due to the lack of separation?  That was particularly jarring.

[without a drought]

I see they just opened a "J.A. Excuse" store at the Factory Outlet Mall.

 

Buy 2 get 1 free till Christmas. Stock up now.

[suorangefan4]

So the same people who said "nice excuses" towards anyone who pointed out that several of Nathan Peterman's INTs were passes that hit the wide receivers right in the hands first or the receiver running a poor route or the offensive line letting him get smoked as he was throwing (he also had to face the toughest defenses) now want to make excuses that the receivers are responsible for Allen's low completion percentage? Funny how that works.

 

I like Allen but it absolutely annoys me the way people are so hypocritical.

Edited December 18, 2018 by suorangefan4

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, suorangefan4 said:

So the same people who said "nice excuses" towards anyone who pointed out that several of Nathan Peterman's INTs were passes that hit the wide receivers right in the hands first or the receiver running a poor route or the offensive line letting him get smoked as he was throwing (he also had to face the toughest defenses) now want to make excuses that the receivers are responsible for Allen's low completion percentage? Funny how that works.

 

I like Allen but it absolutely annoys me the way people are so hypocritical.

 

I think a lot of people made mention of that re: Peterman.  His problem was he coupled that with some weak arm outs that resulted in clean picks.

[C.Biscuit97]

32 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think you're falling into the same trap a lot of people do in using college stats to predict or define NFL quality. Kittle is legit, be it with Beathard or Mullens or whomever. 

 

You also need to take Shanahan into account. He's a very solid offensive mind. 

If so, it's not a very good argument. Kittle was tearing it up before Mullens ever got a start with the Niners.

Fair points.  This is what I’m struggling with

 

1 - I get told Daboll is a good OC.  Shouldn’t a good OC get more than 15 points/ game, no matter that talent?  

 

2 - I think player development is huge.  The fact that Zay Jones isn’t more productive is a problem for us.

 

3 - mullens is their 3rd strong qb, their top two wrs are always injuried, yet he has a 96 QB rating and multiple 300 yards games.  Why can’t our offense be more productive?  

 

I thought Allen looked super poised and delivered some good footballs.  But man, it seems like it’s lot of work for us to score 2 tds. 

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, The Drought said:

I see they just opened a "J.A. Excuse" store at the Factory Outlet Mall.

 

Buy 2 get 1 free till Christmas. Stock up now.

 

So receivers dropping passes isn't a valid excuse.  The "lack of a grasp on reality" store called...

[C.Biscuit97]

19 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Allen needs to elevate his receivers?...  I watch a decent amount of football and NEVER see multiple drops per game like I do with our squad, let alone teams that have WR's that rarely make contested catches. 

 

Have you seen the stat about how Allen has to throw into tight windows every play due to the lack of separation?  That was particularly jarring.

You’re right.  Allen is the only qb in the history of the nfl to have receivers drop passes.  

 

Our receivers aren’t good and Allen isn’t always accurate.  It doesn’t have to be mutual exclusive.  But a 52.2% completion rate isn’t 100% on receivers and I pray Allen doesn’t thin kthat way either. 

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

So receivers dropping passes isn't a valid excuse.  The "lack of a grasp on reality" store called...

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

 

the dropped passes are holding Bortles back!  Again, it’s valid to point out drops.  But it’s goes both ways. 

 

P.S. the Chiefs are 5th.  Imagine Mahomes Adjusted completion %!

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fair points.  This is what I’m struggling with

 

1 - I get told Daboll is a good OC.  Shouldn’t a good OC get more than 15 points/ game, no matter that talent?  

 

2 - I think player development is huge.  The fact that Zay Jones isn’t more productive is a problem for us.

 

3 - mullens is their 3rd strong qb, their top two wrs are always injuried, yet he has a 96 QB rating and multiple 300 yards games.  Why can’t our offense be more productive?  

 

I thought Allen looked super poised and delivered some good footballs.  But man, it seems like it’s lot of work for us to score 2 tds. 

I think Daboll is fine, but there's no part of me that thinks he's as good an offensive mind as Shanahan. That combined with their personnel advantage over the Bills is enough for me to explain the discrepancy in PPG. Again, I think looking at the Bills and Niners from an 'Allen vs. Mullens' perspective isn't going to tell you much.

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re right.  Allen is the only qb in the history of the nfl to have receivers drop passes.  

 

Our receivers aren’t good and Allen isn’t always accurate.  It doesn’t have to be mutual exclusive.  But a 52.2% completion rate isn’t 100% on receivers and I pray Allen doesn’t thin kthat way either. 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

 

the dropped passes are holding Bortles back!  Again, it’s valid to point out drops.  But it’s goes both ways. 

 

P.S. the Chiefs are 5th.  Imagine Mahomes Adjusted completion %!

 

13 passes dropped?  LOL!

[oldmanfan]

17 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re right.  Allen is the only qb in the history of the nfl to have receivers drop passes.  

 

Our receivers aren’t good and Allen isn’t always accurate.  It doesn’t have to be mutual exclusive.  But a 52.2% completion rate isn’t 100% on receivers and I pray Allen doesn’t thin kthat way either. 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

 

the dropped passes are holding Bortles back!  Again, it’s valid to point out drops.  But it’s goes both ways. 

 

P.S. the Chiefs are 5th.  Imagine Mahomes Adjusted completion %!

The chart does not show the percentage of each QBs throws that were dropped.  Mahomes for example has played 5 more games than Allen I believe.

 

Yet another example around here of throwing out some random stat without a true understanding of its value (or non-value).

[SCBills]

18 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re right.  Allen is the only qb in the history of the nfl to have receivers drop passes.  

 

Our receivers aren’t good and Allen isn’t always accurate.  It doesn’t have to be mutual exclusive.  But a 52.2% completion rate isn’t 100% on receivers and I pray Allen doesn’t thin kthat way either. 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

 

the dropped passes are holding Bortles back!  Again, it’s valid to point out drops.  But it’s goes both ways. 

 

P.S. the Chiefs are 5th.  Imagine Mahomes Adjusted completion %!

 

It's absolutely not all on the receivers, but with just an average WR unit and a non-shenanigans OL, I think the advanced metrics show he can be a 60%+ completion rate passer, even with his asurdly high YPA downfield passing attack.

[oldmanfan]

He's a 60% completion rate already.  Just subtract out his throwaways.

[Billsfan1972]

29 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fair points.  This is what I’m struggling with

 

1 - I get told Daboll is a good OC.  Shouldn’t a good OC get more than 15 points/ game, no matter that talent?  

 

2 - I think player development is huge.  The fact that Zay Jones isn’t more productive is a problem for us.

 

3 - mullens is their 3rd strong qb, their top two wrs are always injuried, yet he has a 96 QB rating and multiple 300 yards games.  Why can’t our offense be more productive?  

 

I thought Allen looked super poised and delivered some good footballs.  But man, it seems like it’s lot of work for us to score 2 tds. 

Oh and both TD drives were aided by huge PI's on Detroit (43 & 23 yards).  This offense and play calling is pathetic.  

 

McD wet his pants with this weekends 14-13 result......

 

 

[BillsSB2020]

I love Josh Allen but I find it a little bit strange the way some throw every single player under the bus to fit a narrative.

 

The kids gonna be a stud, but he's gotta put in the time to improve. We know he's not a finished product. I love the Bills and hate to see so many players trashed on a daily basis. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, BillsSB2020 said:

I love Josh Allen but I find it a little bit strange the way some throw every single player under the bus to fit a narrative.

 

The kids gonna be a stud, but he's gotta put in the time to improve. We know he's not a finished product. I love the Bills and hate to see so many players trashed on a daily basis. 

Right. He's got a ways to go and lots to learn. I just get tired of folks trying to misuse data to fit their preconceived notion that he won't cut it.  I think any objective analysis of the kid would say he's developing nicely at this point.