Article - Making a case for Josh Allen as the NFL's best rookie quarterback over Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson

[Rico]

Out of all this year's rookie QBs, Allen is by far the most fun to watch (sorry Baker fans). Hope he keeps getting better and better along with the team around him.

[Alphadawg7]

Few things...

1. Allen without a doubt is seeing his comp % MORE impacted by the talent around him then by just flat out bad throws.
   1. Drops - Too many drops, including one that would have him at a .500 record had clay just caught it.
   2. Pass Protection Breakdown - Far too often the kid is having to run for his life.  In some cases he gets away clean to make either a good throw on the run or a just keep the ball for a big run himself.  However, when he can't get away he has had to throw away a lot of passes.  And other times when they are all over him, he has had a few rookie mistakes where he trusted his arm too much and resulted in a turnover or bad bad under duress because he was trying to make a pass he shouldn't have attempted.
   3. Penalties - He has seen penalties negate some very very good throws.  He has also seen penalties put them in down and long situations, even very long, forcing him to take more lower percentage deep shots.
   4. WR Separation - Our guys just struggle at getting separation.  Zay for instance has only really made plays more often when Allen is scrambling because its hard for a DB to hold coverage that long.  But Allen is also having to scramble because Zay and the others are not getting separation and getting open on their initial routes enough.

So for me, I do not see a wildly inaccurate kid out there.  I see a leader who keeps putting this team on his back and accounting for over 80% of the entire offensive output the last 3 weeks.  Allen's inaccuracy is essentially more "reputation" than "factual" right now.  Its easy to pick at the stat sheet and make a narrative, its another to actually watch every throw and see what is really going on.  

 

ALL...and I mean ALL...QB's miss throws all the time.  Allen is NEVER going to NOT miss throws, thats literally impossible.  However, in the event Allen misses a guy, there are people here who then go "See, I told you he is inaccurate" which is total nonsense.  There are certainly areas for him to keep improving, and I have confidence he will, but this kid doesn't have an accuracy PROBLEM.  

Edited December 12, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[cle23]

Mayfield  was 18-22 this week......with 3 dropped passes, 1 of which was a walk in 30 yard TD. Allen isn't the only QB with dropped passes. Cleveland actually has more if you look at the above link.

[Tcali]

Allen is certainly promising. But his faults re passing arent all specifically about accuracy. he does have a problem there--esp when he has WRs wide open in critical situations.

Has he been awful in passing accuracy?? Not lately.

Mayfield is by far the superior QB of the 2 right now. Allen may even that out as time goes by.

Lets not get carried away here. Allens play is a bit chaotic separate from his butterfingers receivers. 

[PolishPrince]

10 minutes ago, cle23 said:

Mayfield  was 18-22 this week......with 3 dropped passes, 1 of which was a walk in 30 yard TD. Allen isn't the only QB with dropped passes. Cleveland actually has more if you look at the above link.

They also have a run game, and guys making spectacular catches from time to time...

https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/video/can-t-miss-play-chubb-mosses-db-for-absurd-td-catch

[cle23]

2 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

They also have a run game, and guys making spectacular catches from time to time...

https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/video/can-t-miss-play-chubb-mosses-db-for-absurd-td-catch

 

Do people knock Eli when Beckham does that? Every QB gets bailed out from time to time,  just as every QB has dropped passes. You cant just say "he's over 60%" if you take out drops." Every QB has passes dropped.

[One Buffalo]

I posted this in another thread last week, seems relevant to this discussion-  

 

 

[PolishPrince]

19 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

Do people knock Eli when Beckham does that? Every QB gets bailed out from time to time,  just as every QB has dropped passes. You cant just say "he's over 60%" if you take out drops." Every QB has passes dropped.

But thats just it... Im not saying it a knock of Mayfield... I am saying when has Allen EVER got a catch like that lol, or even clay catching the game winner "even though it wobbled," or Clay catching the dime across the middle where he may have taken it 40+ yards... or hitting Zay in the chest and it just bounced off lol

[Stank_Nasty]

3 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

But thats just it... Im not saying it a knock of Mayfield... I am saying when has Allen EVER got a catch like that lol, or even clay catching the game winner "even though it wobbled," or Clay catching the dime across the middle where he may have taken it 40+ yards... or hitting Zay in the chest and it just bounced off lol

Ya he totally missed your point. 

 

The point you can routinely look around the league and see wr’s and te’s reward their qb’s “area code” throws..... until you watch a Bills game. 

[Alphadawg7]

42 minutes ago, cle23 said:

Mayfield  was 18-22 this week......with 3 dropped passes, 1 of which was a walk in 30 yard TD. Allen isn't the only QB with dropped passes. Cleveland actually has more if you look at the above link.

 

Cleveland has a lot better talent around Mayfield than what is around Allen.  There isnt a single player at any skill position that would start in Cleveland over who is there now.  McCory would not start over Chubb.  None of our WR's would start over any of their starters.  Clay wouldn't start over Njoku.  And their offensive line is better than ours too.  

 

You cant just compare QB's without weighing the pieces around them.  And Mayfield isn't having to account for 85% of the offensive production himself like Allen has had to the last 3 weeks.  

 

I like Mayfield a lot, so not taking anything away from him.  But its not really a fair comparison in terms of what Mayfield has to work with and what Allen has to work with.  

Edited December 12, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[cle23]

6 minutes ago, PolishPrince said:

But thats just it... Im not saying it a knock of Mayfield... I am saying when has Allen EVER got a catch like that lol, or even clay catching the game winner "even though it wobbled," or Clay catching the dime across the middle where he may have taken it 40+ yards... or hitting Zay in the chest and it just bounced off lol

 

I didn't miss anything. Higgins dropped a wide open 30 yard TD last week. Chubb made a crazy catch for sure.

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

Do people knock Eli when Beckham does that? Every QB gets bailed out from time to time,  just as every QB has dropped passes. You cant just say "he's over 60%" if you take out drops." Every QB has passes dropped.

Yeah, Foster and Jones are just bailing Allen out every game with all those absurd catches they're making.

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

Do people knock Eli when Beckham does that? Every QB gets bailed out from time to time,  just as every QB has dropped passes. You cant just say "he's over 60%" if you take out drops." Every QB has passes dropped.

 

You are also grossly over looking the real difference maker at WR.  Its not drops, its separation and actually getting open.  This notion that the WR problem is only "drops" related is completely false.  Our guys just dont get open enough, in fact, Zay is practically invisible unless Allen is scrambling under duress and gives Zay a better chance to break free.  He is not doing well at running routes and getting separation consistently.  

 

Those players at WR and TE in Cleveland are superior to ours in both hands, route running, blocking, and getting separation.  We dont have a single WR that would start there.

[VW82]

59 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Well...not to stop people from checking out your post detailing his throws vs. the Jets or anything, but consider that Allen's actually ranked 19th in ESPN's Total QBR. Ahead of the other rookies. 

 

Also, lol at QBR.

 

Allen does rank 19th in Total QBR once you adjust for his rushing. He's dead last if you isolate his passing plays, and that's taking into account drops, throwaways, type of throws, etc. I'm generally not a fan of all-in-one statistics because they're overly ambitious and just not a good way to make an argument in isolation. That's one of the reasons why I went through an entire game's worth of throws to help present better evidence. 

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You are also grossly over looking the real difference maker at WR.  Its not drops, its separation and actually getting open.  This notion that the WR problem is only "drops" related is completely false.  Our guys just dont get open enough, in fact, Zay is practically invisible unless Allen is scrambling under duress and gives Zay a better chance to break free.  He is not doing well at running routes and getting separation consistently.  

 

Those players at WR and TE in Cleveland are superior to ours in both hands, route running, blocking, and getting separation.  We dont have a single WR that would start there.

I think lack of separation is the main problem with them and then when you team that problem up with the line giving Allen no time, it’s a recipe for disaster. The kid is really polishing this turd as good as he can. 

 

How people refuse to see these issues, I’ll never know. You put any of the other early drafted qb’s in this scenario and it would be UGLY. I dunno how many of them could deal with it physically. Darnold was already leading the league in picks. How many would he toss if he was running for his life ROUTINELY?  And then I wonder if Jackson maybe stood a chance but if he got licked as hard has Allen does weekly he would be broken already. 

Edited December 12, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Augie]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

Obviously I disagree with Brady (see my post detailing his throws vs. Jets). Accounting for drops and throwaways (not just for Josh but all QBs) doesn't move him from bottom of the NFL to middle of the pack. He's still near the bottom. Nice try though. Consider ESPN's Total QBR which adjusts for all this stuff still rates Allen as the worst passer in the NFL on the year. 

 

What I will say in his defense is he makes star plays, both running and throwing. I don't know this, but I bet he has a higher rate of making big time throws than most QBs. Some of the passes he makes are just spectacular. Surely someone that gifted will figure it out, right?  

 

 

 

Not to be too negative, but I think of ESPN as pure garbage these days.....and sliding down the muddy slope. There are high school newspapers in Kentucky that have better basketball recruiting coverage. They don’t even try any more. Just take it down, it’s embarrassing. 

[thenorthremembers]

Outside of Shady's 23 yarder against the Jets I haven't seen a skill player make something out of nothing the entire year.

 

At some point a wideout or runningback needs to catch a 10 yard pass and turn it into 30.  This team doesnt have that.

 

What they do have is a kid at QB who is playing his balls off week in and week out without the likes of Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown or Michael Crabtree.  Good God they don't even have a Willie Snead on the roster.

 

Has he missed some throws, sure has.  I would desperately like to see more touchdown passes but the drops have been bad.  He may be bad, he may be great but we won't find out for sure until they get some players on offense.

 

 

[CSBill]

41 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

I posted this in another thread last week, seems relevant to this discussion-  

 

 

 

That speaks volumes. Considering most of the KB & Holmes stats are Benjamin's, makes my loath him even more. I hope he costs the Chiefs a chance at the Super Bowl with a dropped potential game-winning pass in the AFC Championship game. Then the entire world will see what we saw this season.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, CSBill said:

 

That speaks volumes. Considering most of the KB & Holmes stats are Benjamin's, makes my loath him even more. I hope he costs the Chiefs a chance at the Super Bowl with a dropped potential game-winning pass in the AFC Championship game. Then the entire world will see what we saw this season.

 

Like Evans did for the Ravens?  Hehehe...in fairness, I felt bad for Evans and the defender punched it out more than he dropped it.  But that did cost them a SB berth.  

[JerseyBills]

I really think you can argue he has the highest ceiling in the game , period. Him and Mahomes. We might have struck gold.

He def has the right mind, might be a captain next year. You can clearly see the respect his teammates have for him. A natural leader , a gamer , just a phenomenal attitude for the position. 

The physical  ability  is off the charts , best in the league at the position, for a "project" QB with under 10 starts, throwing to all unproven WR and with no consistent  run game (besides him, he has that spidey sense when he takes off,thing of beauty), he gets an A+ imo. And you know he's going to put in a ton of work,have improved OL and WR , i mean the skys the limit, his ceiling is ridiculously high , glad hes a Bill! 

Baker is currently  playing  better but when you ***** the situations  and look at the tape, Allen has a much higher ceiling , 

Edited December 12, 2018 by JerseyBills