(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[mannc]

18 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Alabama? The guys who where tied with the Citadel at half time ? 

So, are you arguing, based on that one halftime score, that Alabama’s not that good?  Because if you are, I could give you about a dozen other Alabama halftime and final scores that say you couldn’t be more wrong.

[GoBills808]

31 minutes ago, mannc said:

So, are you arguing, based on that one halftime score, that Alabama’s not that good?  Because if you are, I could give you about a dozen other Alabama halftime and final scores that say you couldn’t be more wrong.

If they run the spread for Alabama v New Orleans then I might be able to tell you where my action's going. As of right now I'm pounding Buffalo -28

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If they run the spread for Alabama v New Orleans then I might be able to tell you where my action's going. As of right now I'm pounding Buffalo -28

Keep in mind, this was originally posted before the Jets game, when pretty much everyone thought the Bills were one of the three worst teams in the league.

[GoBills808]

Just now, mannc said:

Keep in mind, this was originally posted before the Jets game, when pretty much everyone thought the Bills were one of the three worst teams in the league.

I think I've been pretty consistent throughout.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If they run the spread for Alabama v New Orleans then I might be able to tell you where my action's going. As of right now I'm pounding Buffalo -28

49.5 https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/alabama-spread-against-every-nfl-team-hypothetical-odds

[GunnerBill]

On 11/25/2018 at 6:25 PM, BringBackOrton said:

And half of them are (future) NFL prospects who are still children.  And of the other half, only a handful will be good in the NFL.

 

Their last 6 starting defensive tackles have all come into the NFL as 1st or 2nd round picks and been very good pretty quickly. 

 

I do think position by position is worth looking because Saban tends to build his teams a similar way. Defensive tackles, defensive backs and inside linebackers his guus come into the NFL and they have success pretty quickly. 

 

They generally do less well on the edges of the defense and they have less success overall on offense (save WR). Their defense would compete with bottom feeder NFL offenses I have little doubt about it. 

 

Their offense would struggle to generate points against even bad NFL defenses though. 

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

49.5 https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/alabama-spread-against-every-nfl-team-hypothetical-odds

 

I am taking New Orleans in that one. No question. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

49.5 https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/alabama-spread-against-every-nfl-team-hypothetical-odds

Thanks...now actual gambling doesn't exactly work this way, but consider for kicks- Saints are NEVER giving 20 points to the Bills on a neutral field. I think there have only been two 20+ point spreads in the NFL over the last 10 season (check that tho) and both times underdog covered...I think smart money is on Buffalo here.

[GoBills808]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am taking New Orleans in that one. No question. 

See the gambler in me says the opposite...I'm taking the Bills -28.5 and Alabama +49.5 and laughing all the way to the bank. Reason being I don't think any book is going to set a 20 point spread Bills/Saints on a neutral field, which tells me they (they being whoever's setting these hypothetical lines) think the difference in quality between Buffalo-New Orleans is roughly equivalent to the difference in quality between Alabama-Buffalo, which imo is nonsense. It doesn't add up. 

[78thealltimegreat]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

So, are you arguing, based on that one halftime score, that Alabama’s not that good?  Because if you are, I could give you about a dozen other Alabama halftime and final scores that say you couldn’t be more wrong.

Look Bama doesn’t come within 5 tds of the Bills this Bills D has made Tom Brady, Deshawn Watson, and Kurt Cousins look normal they’d put Tua in a body bag..Jerry Hughes probably breaks the sack record going against lineman who where just at their prom a year or two ago 

[Kirby Jackson]

16 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Look Bama doesn’t come within 5 tds of the Bills this Bills D has made Tom Brady, Deshawn Watson, and Kurt Cousins look normal they’d put Tua in a body bag..Jerry Hughes probably breaks the sack record going against lineman who where just at their prom a year or two ago 

The most ironic part about all of this is that if you polled TBD on the guy that they want in the 1st the guy against Jerry Hughes would be the most popular choice. This place will be THRILLED if we add Jonah Williams to the OL. The hyperbole in this thread is out of control. He isn’t going to break the sack record against a top 10 pick. 

[78thealltimegreat]

25 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The most ironic part about all of this is that if you polled TBD on the guy that they want in the 1st the guy against Jerry Hughes would be the most popular choice. This place will be THRILLED if we add Jonah Williams to the OL. The hyperbole in this thread is out of control. He isn’t going to break the sack record against a top 10 pick. 

You never heard of stunts and switching sides to create favorable matchups? This is NFL caliber coaching not playing LSU or Old Miss coaching here 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

See the gambler in me says the opposite...I'm taking the Bills -28.5 and Alabama +49.5 and laughing all the way to the bank. Reason being I don't think any book is going to set a 20 point spread Bills/Saints on a neutral field, which tells me they (they being whoever's setting these hypothetical lines) think the difference in quality between Buffalo-New Orleans is roughly equivalent to the difference in quality between Alabama-Buffalo, which imo is nonsense. It doesn't add up. 

 

My book would have a 20 point spread Saints - Bills. They beat us more handily than that on our home field last year since when they have got better and we have got worse. 

[Thurman#1]

On 11/9/2018 at 6:01 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im not dreaming...we would easily run on that team, and McCoy would blow past the second level with ease for big gains while Ivory would slam it down their throat.  

 

 

Yup.  This is correct.

 

Alabama's the best college team, by far. And how many guys from there make the pros each year? Out of 22 starters? Less than 10? That leaves 12 or more guys out there not good enough to be on a pro roster.

 

And that ignores the fact that outside of the first couple of rounds not many college guys can be productive as rookies, even after a training camp and maybe months of combine prep where they quit school to work harder.

 

The Bills or any other team would absolutely kill them.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup.  This is correct.

 

Alabama's the best college team, by far. And how many guys from there make the pros each year? Out of 22 starters? Less than 10? That leaves 12 or more guys out there not good enough to be on a pro roster.

 

And that ignores the fact that outside of the first couple of rounds not many college guys can be productive as rookies, even after a training camp and maybe months of combine prep where they quit school to work harder.

 

The Bills or any other team would absolutely kill them.

 

Pretty much every starter on that current defense will get to the NFL, whether it is this year or next

[mannc]

30 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup.  This is correct.

 

Alabama's the best college team, by far. And how many guys from there make the pros each year? Out of 22 starters? Less than 10? That leaves 12 or more guys out there not good enough to be on a pro roster.

 

The Bills or any other team would kill them.

Your calculations are way off.  Last year’s Alabama team, which was not as good as this year’s team, had 12 guys drafted, not “less than 10”.  Of course, that doesn’t even include current NFL starters Robert Foster and Levi Wallace, both of whom were on last year’s team but went undrafted.  And that 12 also doesn’t include guys like Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis, who weren’t drafted because they either chose to stay in school or weren’t draft-eligible, not because they were “not good enough to be on a pro roster.”  It’s ulikely that there are more than one or two starters on this year’s team that wouldn’t at least be considered viable NFL prospects if they were draft eligible now, not to mention 4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks.  And perhaps the best QB in the country.

Edited November 27, 2018 by mannc

[Thurman#1]

 

 

On 11/26/2018 at 3:20 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

They had 12 drafted because others weren’t eligible or wanted to raise their stock. They will have another 12 or so this year. The same again next year when Jeudy and Tua are eligible. They have 30+ (conservatively) NFL players on their roster.

 

 

It isn't like Alabama gets 12, or even 10 guys drafted every year. Here are the Saban years with the number of guys drafted. Obviously the first few classes were graduating guys not recruited by Saban. But what this shows is that 12 and 10 are outliers.

 

2018: 12

2017: 10

2016: 7

2015: 7

2014: 8

2013: 9

2012: 9

2011: 5

2010: 7

2009: 4

2008: 0

2007: 3

 

While certainly possible that they get 12 or so drafted the next couple of years, it's absolutely not conservative.

 

 

Looking at the 12 guys they had drafted this year. Here is each guy, with how many snaps he has played so far in his rookie year, with STs snaps not included.

 

11 S Minkah Fitzpatrick (528 snaps)

13 DT Daron Payne (484 snaps)

22 LB Rashaan Evans (298 snaps)

26 WR Calvin Ridley (396 snaps)

93 S Ronnie Harrison (186 snaps, 29.1%)

114 DE Da'Shawn Hand (381 snaps)

118 CB Anthony Averett (22 snaps)

172 P JK Scott (punter, 91 STs snaps)

197 LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (0 snaps)

215 C Bradley Bozeman (103 snaps)

236 RB Bo Scarbrough (0 snaps) on his second team's practice squad

246 DT Joshua Frazier (0 snaps) free agent

 

So, that's five guys with significant snaps, unless you want to count Harrison wtih 29.1% of his possible defensive snaps. I guess you could count the punter, too, if you wanted.

 

And each lower class that would also be playing against the Bills would be composed of younger guys with less experience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Your calculations are way off.  Last year’s Alabama team, which was not as good as this year’s team, had 12 guys drafted, not “less than 10”.  Of course, that doesn’t even include current NFL starters Robert Foster and Levi Wallace, both of whom were on last year’s team but went undrafted.  And that 12 also doesn’t include guys like Quinnen Williams and Raekwon Davis, who weren’t drafted because they either chose to stay in school or weren’t draft-eligible, not because they were “not good enough to be on a pro roster.”  It’s ulikely that there are more than one or two starters on this year’s team that wouldn’t at least be considered viable NFL prospects if they were draft eligible now, not to mention 4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks.  And perhaps the best QB in the country.

 

 

Quinnen Williams counts next year, or whenever he gets drafted. If you want to look at all of this year's players - regardless of what year they'll be drafted in - and then NOT multiply that by several years of prospects, great, look at Williams and Raekwon.

 

But you don't get to throw Williams in a year earlier then say my per year calculations are off. If you throw Williams in this year, he's out of next year. Same with Raekwon.

 

"It's unlikely that there are more than one or two starters on this year's team that wouldn't at least be considered viable NFL prospects if they were draft eligible now"? Boy, that's very questionable. Possible prospects a year or two down the road when they're actually draft eligible? Maybe, though even that's pushing it. Guys who are likely to start consistently in the NFL for years?

 

"4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks"? That I'll buy. But 4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks ... as rookies ... and actually a year before that? Please. NFL teams would spend hours on evaluating these guys and drafting them and developing them in hopes that they eventually become excellent starters. But in terms of snagging them right off the college field and plugging them in against NFL players? Teams would smile.

 

Robert Foster and Levi Wallace? Both guys who could easily not be in the league in three years? I hope I'm very wrong about that, but those guys still have a ton to prove this year. Take them last year without the training camp and the year of development and put them in a game against pros? Again, please.

 

The QB is the best in the country? Yeah, probably. How are last year's top four QBs doing in the pros? They're finding their feet. Put them in an all-college lineup against an NFL team and it'd look far worse. How did Wentz do as a rookie? Goff?

 

And again, 10 is an outlier. They've averaged less in the Saban years, even throwing out his first three drafts.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

22 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

It isn't like Alabama gets 12, or even 10 guys drafted every year. Here are the Saban years with the number of guys drafted. Obviously the first few classes were graduating guys not recruited by Saban. But what this shows is that 12 and 10 are outliers.

 

2018: 12

2017: 10

2016: 7

2015: 7

2014: 8

2013: 9

2012: 9

2011: 5

2010: 7

2009: 4

2008: 0

2007: 3

 

While certainly possible that they get 12 or so drafted the next couple of years, it's absolutely not conservative.

 

 

Looking at the 12 guys they had drafted this year. Here is each guy, with how many snaps he has played so far in his rookie year, with STs snaps not included.

 

11 S Minkah Fitzpatrick (528 snaps)

13 DT Daron Payne (484 snaps)

22 LB Rashaan Evans (298 snaps)

26 WR Calvin Ridley (396 snaps)

93 S Ronnie Harrison (186 snaps, 29.1%)

114 DE Da'Shawn Hand (381 snaps)

118 CB Anthony Averett (22 snaps)

172 P JK Scott (punter, 91 STs snaps)

197 LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (0 snaps)

215 C Bradley Bozeman (103 snaps)

236 RB Bo Scarbrough (0 snaps) on his second team's practice squad

246 DT Joshua Frazier (0 snaps) free agent

 

So, that's five guys with significant snaps, unless you want to count Harrison wtih 29.1% of his possible defensive snaps. I guess you could count the punter, too, if you wanted.

 

And each lower class that would also be playing against the Bills would be composed of younger guys with less experience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you for this data.  It of course shows that not all draftees are instant starters, but the vast majority are legitimate NFL players.

 

I doubt that the 12 players drafted last year was much of an outlier, but rather seems more like a trend.  According to the mocks that are currently out there, Alabama will have between 4-7 guys drafted in round 1,  and another 2 or 3 in round 2.  (Some mocks had four Tide players going in the top 10.)  That makes it pretty likely that they will at least match their 2018 output.  The point is, this is one of the most talented college teams ever and they would not be a pushover for an NFL bottom-feeder.

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Thank you for this data.  It of course shows that not all draftees are instant starters, but the vast majority are legitimate NFL players.

 

I doubt that the 12 players drafted last year was much of an outlier, but rather seems more like a trend.  According to the mocks that are currently out there, Alabama will have between 4-7 guys drafted in round 1,  and another 2 or 3 in round 2.  (Some mocks had four Tide players going in the top 10.)  That makes it pretty likely that they will at least match their 2018 output.  The point is, this is one of the most talented college teams ever and they would not be a pushover for an NFL bottom-feeder.

 

 

This discussion comes in the context of how Alabama, the college team, would do against the Bills. And it is too early to know whether those guys will be legitimate NFL players, even the guys who are starting. Plenty of young guys start early and don't pan out, getting replaced a year or three down the line.

 

It might be a trend. You can say so a few years down the line. Right now what you've got there is a guess. Not an unreasonable guess, but a guess.

 

And yes, they are one of the most talented college teams ever. College teams. And yes, they would be a pushover for an NFL team, bottom feeder or not. They won the title last year and only five guys got significant NFL snaps this year. And that comes after a year of professional development.

[mannc]

7 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Quinnen Williams counts next year, or whenever he gets drafted. If you want to look at all of this year's players - regardless of what year they'll be drafted in - and then NOT multiply that by several years of prospects, great, look at Williams and Raekwon.

 

But you don't get to throw Williams in a year earlier then say my per year calculations are off. If you throw Williams in this year, he's out of next year. Same with Raekwon.

 

"It's unlikely that there are more than one or two starters on this year's team that wouldn't at least be considered viable NFL prospects if they were draft eligible now"? Boy, that's very questionable. Possible prospects a year or two down the road when they're actually draft eligible? Maybe, though even that's pushing it. Guys who are likely to start consistently in the NFL for years?

 

"4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks"? That I'll buy. But 4 or 5 sure-fire first round picks ... as rookies ... and actually a year before that? Please. NFL teams would spend hours on evaluating these guys and drafting them and developing them in hopes that they eventually become excellent starters. But in terms of snagging them right off the college field and plugging them in against NFL players? Teams would smile.

 

Robert Foster and Levi Wallace? Both guys who could easily not be in the league in three years? I hope I'm very wrong about that, but those guys still have a ton to prove this year. Take them last year without the training camp and the year of development and put them in a game against pros? Again, please.

 

The QB is the best in the country? Yeah, probably. How are last year's top four QBs doing in the pros? They're finding their feet. Put them in an all-college lineup against an NFL team and it'd look far worse. How did Wentz do as a rookie? Goff?

 

And again, 10 is an outlier. They've averaged less in the Saban years, even throwing out his first three drafts.

So are you saying Davis and Williams would not have been drafted in 2018 if they had been eligible?  Tua won’t be eligible this year either, but if he was, is there any doubt he’d be drafted?   

 

As to the idea that guys from a program like Alabama get significantly coached up when they get to the pros, well, we’ll just have to disagree about that.  

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

So are you saying Davis and Williams would not have been drafted in 2018 if they had been eligible?  Tua won’t be eligible this year either, but if he was, is there any doubt he’d be drafted?   

 

As to the idea that guys from a program like Alabama get significantly coached up when they get to the pros, well, we’ll just have to disagree about that.  

 

 

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying you don't get to switch guys all into one year and then take that figure and pretend it's a per year figure. It's not.

 

Seriously? That second paragraph? That's a joke.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Thurman#1

[mannc]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying you don't get to switch guys all into one year and then take that figure and pretend it's a per year figure. It's not.

 

Seriously? That second paragraph? That's a joke.

That’s not what I’m doing.  I’m saying, if every guy on Alabama’s current team was draft-eligible this coming April, then it would not be unreasonable to think that 18 of them would be drafted. 

 

What is your response to the current NFL guys who played for the Tide, and uniformly say that Alabama would beat plenty of NFL teams?  I know there is some bias because they are alums, but to me, they are uniquely qualified to answer the question.

[longtimebillsfan]

This is silly at this point.  The Bills have beaten three playoff teams from last year.

 

Most likely any NFL team could handle Alabama.  However, back I. The 60's and before, the NFL champions would play a game vs a team of college Allstars.   The college kids would win every once in a while. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by longtimebillsfan

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

11 S Minkah Fitzpatrick (528 snaps)

13 DT Daron Payne (484 snaps)

22 LB Rashaan Evans (298 snaps)

26 WR Calvin Ridley (396 snaps)

93 S Ronnie Harrison (186 snaps, 29.1%)

114 DE Da'Shawn Hand (381 snaps)

118 CB Anthony Averett (22 snaps)

172 P JK Scott (punter, 91 STs snaps)

197 LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (0 snaps)

215 C Bradley Bozeman (103 snaps)

236 RB Bo Scarbrough (0 snaps) on his second team's practice squad

246 DT Joshua Frazier (0 snaps) free agent

 

 

 

So from last year's Alabama starting defense....

 

DL - Payne (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at high level)

DL - Hand (drafted 4th round in 2018 - starter playing at high level)

DL - Raekwon Davis (likely 1st or 2nd round pick in 2019)

OLB - Anfernee Jennings (likely day 2 pick in 2019)

ILB - Raashan Evans (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at decent level)

ILB - Dion Hamilton (drafted 6th round in 2018 - only playing special teams at the moment)

OLB - Christian Miller (likely mid to round pick in 2019)

CB - Levi Wallace (UDFA in 2018 - now starting and playing a decent level)

S - Minkah Fitpatrick (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at a high level)

S - Ronnie Harrison (drafted 3rd round in 2018 - rotational player playing at a decent level - will be a future starter)

CB - Anthony Averett (drafted 4th round in 2018 - backup player playing at a decent level - will be a future starter)

 

That is not a "normal" college defense. That is a defense of supremely talented guys who are going to play and succeed in the National Football League and would compete with the bottom feeder offenses in my opinion.

[Kirby Jackson]

8 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

You never heard of stunts and switching sides to create favorable matchups? This is NFL caliber coaching not playing LSU or Old Miss coaching here 

...and the guy on the other side was a 5-star recruit that isn’t draft eligible this year. 2 years from now, he will be starting in the NFL. Again, I’m not saying that the Bills defense wouldn’t give Alabama a hard time. I just don’t see sack records being shattered against an OL and QB as TALENTED (not experienced) as some that we will play. 

 

Just for clarity sake, does everyone here understand that you need to be 3 years removed from high school to enter the NFL Draft? It feels like a lot of people get hung up on the number of people Alabama sends to the NFL every year. There are (conservatively) 30+ people on this roster that will be playing in the NFL. I’d venture to say 10+ (minimum) that are picked in round 1. That’s a ton of talent. 

 

Secondly, in terms of the whole size and strength thing there is virtually no difference in the ‘Bama guys and NFL guys. The Bills OL is actually smaller than Alabama’s. The ‘Bama strength coach makes about double what the Bills strength coach does. The biggest difference between the teams is knowledge and experience. The Bills will be able to identify things on both sides of the ball that will allow for plays to be made. Now, Alabama has Nick Saban to try to negate some of that but he can only do so much. The biggest mismatch is mental, not physical.

 

I have game at 30–10. 

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

It isn't like Alabama gets 12, or even 10 guys drafted every year. Here are the Saban years with the number of guys drafted. Obviously the first few classes were graduating guys not recruited by Saban. But what this shows is that 12 and 10 are outliers.

 

2018: 12

2017: 10

2016: 7

2015: 7

2014: 8

2013: 9

2012: 9

2011: 5

2010: 7

2009: 4

2008: 0

2007: 3

 

While certainly possible that they get 12 or so drafted the next couple of years, it's absolutely not conservative.

 

 

Looking at the 12 guys they had drafted this year. Here is each guy, with how many snaps he has played so far in his rookie year, with STs snaps not included.

 

11 S Minkah Fitzpatrick (528 snaps)

13 DT Daron Payne (484 snaps)

22 LB Rashaan Evans (298 snaps)

26 WR Calvin Ridley (396 snaps)

93 S Ronnie Harrison (186 snaps, 29.1%)

114 DE Da'Shawn Hand (381 snaps)

118 CB Anthony Averett (22 snaps)

172 P JK Scott (punter, 91 STs snaps)

197 LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (0 snaps)

215 C Bradley Bozeman (103 snaps)

236 RB Bo Scarbrough (0 snaps) on his second team's practice squad

246 DT Joshua Frazier (0 snaps) free agent

 

So, that's five guys with significant snaps, unless you want to count Harrison wtih 29.1% of his possible defensive snaps. I guess you could count the punter, too, if you wanted.

 

And each lower class that would also be playing against the Bills would be composed of younger guys with less experience.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You are kind of making my point here. If they have 12 this year as many project that’s 34 over a 3 year span. That doesn’t even account for current NFL starters in Foster and Wallace that we’re undrafted. It isn’t AT ALL unrealistic to say that there are 30+ NFL players on the best team that Alabama has had. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

47 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

...and the guy on the other side was a 5-star recruit that isn’t draft eligible this year. 2 years from now, he will be starting in the NFL. Again, I’m not saying that the Bills defense wouldn’t give Alabama a hard time. I just don’t see sack records being shattered against an OL and QB as TALENTED (not experienced) as some that we will play. 

 

Just for clarity sake, does everyone here understand that you need to be 3 years removed from high school to enter the NFL Draft? It feels like a lot of people get hung up on the number of people Alabama sends to the NFL every year. There are (conservatively) 30+ people on this roster that will be playing in the NFL. I’d venture to say 10+ (minimum) that are picked in round 1. That’s a ton of talent. 

 

Secondly, in terms of the whole size and strength thing there is virtually no difference in the ‘Bama guys and NFL guys. The Bills OL is actually smaller than Alabama’s. The ‘Bama strength coach makes about double what the Bills strength coach does. The biggest difference between the teams is knowledge and experience. The Bills will be able to identify things on both sides of the ball that will allow for plays to be made. Now, Alabama has Nick Saban to try to negate some of that but he can only do so much. The biggest mismatch is mental, not physical.

 

I have game at 30–10. 

You are kind of making my point here. If they have 12 this year as many project that’s 34 over a 3 year span. That doesn’t even account for current NFL starters in Foster and Wallace that we’re undrafted. It isn’t AT ALL unrealistic to say that there are 30+ NFL players on the best team that Alabama has had. 

 

I think the tricky part will be just generally the speed of the game.  It's going to be really hard for Bama to pass the ball, between playing a d-line that is probably better than anyone they'll play all year - a secondary with multiple NFL pro bowlers covering their receivers - and a ton of speed at linebacker.  Turnovers would spin the game to a blowout, so Bama would want to try and get grindy, and i think that honestly favors buffalo.  28.5 is quite the spread, but i don't think Bama is likely to win the game.

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I think the tricky part will be just generally the speed of the game.  It's going to be really hard for Bama to pass the ball, between playing a d-line that is probably better than anyone they'll play all year - a secondary with multiple NFL pro bowlers covering their receivers - and a ton of speed at linebacker.  Turnovers would spin the game to a blowout, so Bama would want to try and get grindy, and i think that honestly favors buffalo.  28.5 is quite the spread, but i don't think Bama is likely to win the game.

This is fair. The speed in a one game sample would be a huge adjustment. It’s smaller for them though than any other college team between practice, the SEC and Clemson every year. 

 

I don’t think ANY reasonable person thinks that they can win. I have a 20 point game mostly because I think that their defense would hold their own against the Bills. They have so much offensive talent that I have them scoring once. I have them kicking a FG as well off of a turnover. 

[row_33]

29 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is fair. The speed in a one game sample would be a huge adjustment. It’s smaller for them though than any other college team between practice, the SEC and Clemson every year. 

 

I don’t think ANY reasonable person thinks that they can win. I have a 20 point game mostly because I think that their defense would hold their own against the Bills. They have so much offensive talent that I have them scoring once. I have them kicking a FG as well off of a turnover. 

 

what's the motivation for the NFL team to continue caring if they come out and run right over them for 2 series?

 

 

 

[Chuck Wagon]

This should be locked.  Bills weren't the worst team in the league when this hypothetical came out and now clearly are not the worst team in the league.  We would house Alabama.

[row_33]

11 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

This should be locked.  Bills weren't the worst team in the league when this hypothetical came out and now clearly are not the worst team in the league.  We would house Alabama.

 

they would have at any stage of the season, even with..... he who cannot be named at QB...

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

I don't think the gap is as big as people think. 

[row_33]

10 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

I don't think the gap is as big as people think. 

 

if the NFL team tried it's hardest the whole game?

 

 

[TheElectricCompany]

18 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

if the NFL team tried it's hardest the whole game?

 

I believe that against the right team, you could confidently take the under. 

2001 Hurricanes against the 2016 Browns and you're under 2 TDs. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[colin]

I'd so love to see this happen.  The bills would break every franchise record for passing, scoring, running, TOP, turnovers gained, sacks, and Yards for and against.  Part of it is because of the way the bills play.  We are still goofy on O, but on D the team plays with a ton of emotion, and has a great secondary.  Tom Brady didn't get a TD pass on us when the D was in top form, and that was with a disaster pretending to play QB, Tua may end up being an NFL great one day, but today ain't that day.  He'd be confused by the coverage, and would be shell shocked by getting smashed up on every drop back.

[row_33]

13 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

I believe that against the right team, you could confidently take the under. 

2001 Hurricanes against the 2016 Browns and you're under 2 TDs. 

 

agreed, played in front of a Cane crowd with college hashmarks

 

 

[Success]

14 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

I believe that against the right team, you could confidently take the under. 

2001 Hurricanes against the 2016 Browns and you're under 2 TDs. 

It’s too bad they couldn’t ever do a game like this.  It would be an eye opener for anyone who thinks it wouldn’t be one if the all time blowouts.

 

It doesn’t matter how dominant a team is in college, or how bad the pro team is.  A pro team would win by many, many touchdowns.

[TheElectricCompany]

10 minutes ago, Success said:

It’s too bad they couldn’t ever do a game like this.  It would be an eye opener for anyone who thinks it wouldn’t be one if the all time blowouts.

It doesn’t matter how dominant a team is in college, or how bad the pro team is.  A pro team would win by many, many touchdowns.

 

2001 Hurricanes had Andre Johnson, Willis McGahee, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Kellen Winslow and Roscoe Parrish. I think their offense would stand a chance. 

 

We're both guessing here. I think the right NCAA team against a historically bad (I think DL/OL play is the #1 factor) NFL team could keep it interesting. 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2018 by TheElectricCompany

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

This is fair. The speed in a one game sample would be a huge adjustment. It’s smaller for them though than any other college team between practice, the SEC and Clemson every year. 

 

I don’t think ANY reasonable person thinks that they can win. I have a 20 point game mostly because I think that their defense would hold their own against the Bills. They have so much offensive talent that I have them scoring once. I have them kicking a FG as well off of a turnover. 

 

Like it takes a QB time to adjust - time that is spent in practice/preseason/on the field.  Their QB is just thrown in there.  His body clock won't be fast enough, and the receivers are going to struggle to get open for him to find in that window.  NFL d-lines are used to having to adjust to hard counts, silent counts, and other ways to slow down a pass rush.  All its going to take are a few run stops to get them in 3rd and longs and those are dangerous for a rookie QB who has played preseason/regular NFL time - let alone a green rookie who's never faced an NFL defense.

 

As for buffalo's offense, they've had some stinkers - baltimore and GB come to mind.  But they've also scored points against some really tough defenses in minn/jax - both of whom have a better defense than bama.  

[mannc]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So from last year's Alabama starting defense....

 

DL - Payne (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at high level)

DL - Hand (drafted 4th round in 2018 - starter playing at high level)

DL - Raekwon Davis (likely 1st or 2nd round pick in 2019)

OLB - Anfernee Jennings (likely day 2 pick in 2019)

ILB - Raashan Evans (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at decent level)

ILB - Dion Hamilton (drafted 6th round in 2018 - only playing special teams at the moment)

OLB - Christian Miller (likely mid to round pick in 2019)

CB - Levi Wallace (UDFA in 2018 - now starting and playing a decent level)

S - Minkah Fitpatrick (drafted 1st round in 2018 - starter playing at a high level)

S - Ronnie Harrison (drafted 3rd round in 2018 - rotational player playing at a decent level - will be a future starter)

CB - Anthony Averett (drafted 4th round in 2018 - backup player playing at a decent level - will be a future starter)

 

That is not a "normal" college defense. That is a defense of supremely talented guys who are going to play and succeed in the National Football League and would compete with the bottom feeder offenses in my opinion.

And that doesn’t even account for Quinnen Williams, who could be picked as high as 2 overall this year, or a couple of other defenders who will go in round 1 in April.

Edited November 27, 2018 by mannc

[row_33]

That Lions team is the softy of all time, watched a few series that season, they had small fat guys on the O-line that would have been in over their heads in semi-pro ball