Democratic 2020 Presidential Primary Thread

[Hedge]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

She makes a lotta sense for Joe, IMO:
 

 

 

 

Time to comb through her salad past.

[Nanker]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

She makes a lotta sense for Joe, IMO:
 

 

 

But that’s Stacey’s job. How could he!

[B-Man]

 

 

 

 

 

                        

 

 

 

[Orlando Tim]

On 5/20/2020 at 8:26 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

And since suddenly polls matter again for @Deranged Rhino

 

can we stop using polls like this? it makes us all dumber to even mention them. USA Today and NPR have a flawed methodology and  were outside of their margin of error for the majority of 2016 and has not changed. putting crap like this up here says you are unwilling to determine what is proper information and will believe literally anything as long as it agrees with what you want. Transplant I do not think you are dumb but stop using this stuff.

7 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

She makes a lotta sense for Joe, IMO:
 

 

 

I agree except much of his base makes decisions based exclusively on race, so they missed a large portion of minorities with her.

[transplantbillsfan]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

can we stop using polls like this? it makes us all dumber to even mention them. USA Today and NPR have a flawed methodology and  were outside of their margin of error for the majority of 2016 and has not changed. putting crap like this up here says you are unwilling to determine what is proper information and will believe literally anything as long as it agrees with what you want. Transplant I do not think you are dumb but stop using this stuff.

 

First of all, you're falling prey to the Meteorologist fallacy.

 

It's a common problem over here, don't worry.

 

If you flunk a math exam in your sophomore year of High School but otherwise get As throughout the rest of your academic career in that subject, are you viewed as an F student in math?

 

The obvious answer is no, and you know that.

 

 

Second of all, I don't know why I responded to someone who actually thought it was USA Today and NPR that conducts major nationwide polls.

 

Try clicking the link and reading for a change.

Edited May 22, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[Nanker]

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Stacey Abrams Says She Will Step Down As Governor If Asked To Run For VP

 

 

Stacey Abrams Says She Will Step Down As Governor If Asked To Run For VP

ATLANTA, GA—Sitting at the governor's desk at the Georgia state capitol, Stacey Abrams told reporters she would step down from her governorship if asked to run for vice president."If Biden asks me to...

babylonbee.com

 

 

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 5/20/2020 at 8:26 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

And since suddenly polls matter again

 

Agreed. All these polls definitely matter, even if they are merely snapshots in time and the only time that truly matters is early November. Current polls indicate that Americans have a distinct problem with how Trump is handling COVID-19 at this moment. This is a very real national sentiment that we are quantifying.

 

We are still 6.5 months away from the big day, however, which is a long time for Joe’s rapidly deteriorating brain. While some of these recent polls are interesting, I still can’t get over that Washington Post supporter enthusiasm poll in late March where Trump had such an enormous lead over Biden. The gap I believe was 29 percentage points. 53% to 24% or something like that. The enthusiasm polls are what I care about the most since we only count who cares enough to put in the effort to vote by the time early November arrives.

 

So the two key demographics to track this summer are the Bernie base (working-class, Millenials, Latinos) and the over-65 crowd:

 

The latter have been ditching Trump recently and coming over to Biden in droves, likely due to Trump’s callous handling of the coronavirus which has struck this demographic the hardest. Because old people are super reliable when it comes to actually voting, this new development is a potential game changer.

 

The former are way more cynical in 2020 than they were in 2016. I don’t think Biden’s “unity task forces” will be enough to persuade them to stick with the Dems at anything close to the percentage level that Hillary maintained. Choosing a textbook neoliberal corporatist for VP like Klobuchar won’t help. If Biden cares at all about the support from the party’s progressive wing and seeks serious rapprochement, then for starters he needs to boldly support Medicare for All right now in the middle of this pandemic. I have seen recent polls showing M4A support up to 90% among Democrats and 70% among the overall US population, so this is no longer a fringe policy in America. I’m also following developments on the creation of the People’s Party. This seems like nothing more than a rebranding of the Green Party to me, but the amount of support they have by August may offer insight into just how much of the Democratic Party’s progressive left is jumping ship.

[Bill from NYC]

6 minutes ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

Agreed. All these polls definitely matter, even if they are merely snapshots in time and the only time that truly matters is early November. Current polls indicate that Americans have a distinct problem with how Trump is handling COVID-19 at this moment. This is a very real national sentiment that we are quantifying.

 

We are still 6.5 months away from the big day, however, which is a long time for Joe’s rapidly deteriorating brain. While some of these recent polls are interesting, I still can’t get over that Washington Post supporter enthusiasm poll in late March where Trump had such an enormous lead over Biden. The gap I believe was 29 percentage points. 53% to 24% or something like that. The enthusiasm polls are what I care about the most since we only count who cares enough to put in the effort to vote by the time early November arrives.

 

So the two key demographics to track this summer are the Bernie base (working-class, Millenials, Latinos) and the over-65 crowd:

 

The latter have been ditching Trump recently and coming over to Biden in droves, likely due to Trump’s callous handling of the coronavirus which has struck this demographic the hardest. Because old people are super reliable when it comes to actually voting, this new development is a potential game changer.

 

The former are way more cynical in 2020 than they were in 2016. I don’t think Biden’s “unity task forces” will be enough to persuade them to stick with the Dems at anything close to the percentage level that Hillary maintained. Choosing a textbook neoliberal corporatist for VP like Klobuchar won’t help. If Biden cares at all about the support from the party’s progressive wing and seeks serious rapprochement, then for starters he needs to boldly support Medicare for All right now in the middle of this pandemic. I have seen recent polls showing M4A support up to 90% among Democrats and 70% among the overall US population, so this is no longer a fringe policy in America. I’m also following developments on the creation of the People’s Party. This seems like nothing more than a rebranding of the Green Party to me, but the amount of support they have by August may offer insight into just how much of the Democratic Party’s progressive left is jumping ship.

Good post.

OK, would you be willing to make a prediction today as to who you think will win the presidency in November? I fully understand how quickly things can and will change, but; if you were making a prediction right now, who do you think will win?

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

15 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

She makes a lotta sense for Joe, IMO:
 

 

 

It’s not so much a vetting as a grooming, I’d think.  She’s right in his wheelhouse. 

[Tiberius]

13 minutes ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

Agreed. All these polls definitely matter, even if they are merely snapshots in time and the only time that truly matters is early November. Current polls indicate that Americans have a distinct problem with how Trump is handling COVID-19 at this moment. This is a very real national sentiment that we are quantifying.

 

We are still 6.5 months away from the big day, however, which is a long time for Joe’s rapidly deteriorating brain. While some of these recent polls are interesting, I still can’t get over that Washington Post supporter enthusiasm poll in late March where Trump had such an enormous lead over Biden. The gap I believe was 29 percentage points. 53% to 24% or something like that. The enthusiasm polls are what I care about the most since we only count who cares enough to put in the effort to vote by the time early November arrives.

 

So the two key demographics to track this summer are the Bernie base (working-class, Millenials, Latinos) and the over-65 crowd:

 

The latter have been ditching Trump recently and coming over to Biden in droves, likely due to Trump’s callous handling of the coronavirus which has struck this demographic the hardest. Because old people are super reliable when it comes to actually voting, this new development is a potential game changer.

 

The former are way more cynical in 2020 than they were in 2016. I don’t think Biden’s “unity task forces” will be enough to persuade them to stick with the Dems at anything close to the percentage level that Hillary maintained. Choosing a textbook neoliberal corporatist for VP like Klobuchar won’t help. If Biden cares at all about the support from the party’s progressive wing and seeks serious rapprochement, then for starters he needs to boldly support Medicare for All right now in the middle of this pandemic. I have seen recent polls showing M4A support up to 90% among Democrats and 70% among the overall US population, so this is no longer a fringe policy in America. I’m also following developments on the creation of the People’s Party. This seems like nothing more than a rebranding of the Green Party to me, but the amount of support they have by August may offer insight into just how much of the Democratic Party’s progressive left is jumping ship.

You think Trump has a chance with a Great Depression rolling through the land? 

5 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Good post.

OK, would you be willing to make a prediction today as to who you think will win the presidency in November? I fully understand how quickly things can and will change, but; if you were making a prediction right now, who do you think will win?

I'm predicting Biden in a landslide. 

 

I just don't see Trump having a path to victory again 

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

33 minutes ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

Agreed. All these polls definitely matter, even if they are merely snapshots in time and the only time that truly matters is early November. Current polls indicate that Americans have a distinct problem with how Trump is handling COVID-19 at this moment. This is a very real national sentiment that we are quantifying.

 

We are still 6.5 months away from the big day, however, which is a long time for Joe’s rapidly deteriorating brain. While some of these recent polls are interesting, I still can’t get over that Washington Post supporter enthusiasm poll in late March where Trump had such an enormous lead over Biden. The gap I believe was 29 percentage points. 53% to 24% or something like that. The enthusiasm polls are what I care about the most since we only count who cares enough to put in the effort to vote by the time early November arrives.

 

So the two key demographics to track this summer are the Bernie base (working-class, Millenials, Latinos) and the over-65 crowd:

 

The latter have been ditching Trump recently and coming over to Biden in droves, likely due to Trump’s callous handling of the coronavirus which has struck this demographic the hardest. Because old people are super reliable when it comes to actually voting, this new development is a potential game changer.

 

The former are way more cynical in 2020 than they were in 2016. I don’t think Biden’s “unity task forces” will be enough to persuade them to stick with the Dems at anything close to the percentage level that Hillary maintained. Choosing a textbook neoliberal corporatist for VP like Klobuchar won’t help. If Biden cares at all about the support from the party’s progressive wing and seeks serious rapprochement, then for starters he needs to boldly support Medicare for All right now in the middle of this pandemic. I have seen recent polls showing M4A support up to 90% among Democrats and 70% among the overall US population, so this is no longer a fringe policy in America. I’m also following developments on the creation of the People’s Party. This seems like nothing more than a rebranding of the Green Party to me, but the amount of support they have by August may offer insight into just how much of the Democratic Party’s progressive left is jumping ship.

When all is said and done, the game hasn’t really even started yet. 
 

Trump will be hammered on all things Trumpian.  Biden’s job killing Go Green philosophy will be front and center, not far removed from 20m folks who found themselves suddenly out of work, the question of governmental incompetence with respect to Covid response juxtaposed with MCA4all and what Americans might have expected had we entrusted every aspect of our health care system to bureaucrats, Joe’s open-borders plan v a sensible immigration plan with reasonable border security.  Add to all that....Biden’s evolving rules of engagement for sexual assault victims and as you mentioned, his diminishing mental capacity.

 

Should be interesting. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

32 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

You think Trump has a chance with a Great Depression rolling through the land? 

I'm predicting Biden in a landslide. 

 

I just don't see Trump having a path to victory again 

 

..I believe that would be a "mudslide"...….

[SoCal Deek]

36 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

You think Trump has a chance with a Great Depression rolling through the land? 

I'm predicting Biden in a landslide. 

 

I just don't see Trump having a path to victory again 

Tibs? Is that you? No ranting? No outright Trump bashing? Just a nice, reasonably expressed opinion? Well done! And I mean this sincerely....THANK YOU!

[snafu]

8 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Tibs? Is that you? No ranting? No outright Trump bashing? Just a nice, reasonably expressed opinion? Well done! And I mean this sincerely....THANK YOU!

 

He didn’t make that happen.

Somebody else made that happen.

 

[Tiberius]

21 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

..I believe that would be a "mudslide"...….

Getting the country back onto it's much more normal constitutional track is just a good thing. The children have had their fun, now it's time for the grown ups to be back in charge 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, leh-nerd skin-erd said:

It’s not so much a vetting as a grooming, I’d think.  She’s right in his wheelhouse. 

 

Fairly certain Joe thought they said she needed to be "petted" which put him enthusiastically behind the plan.

[ComradeKayAdams]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

Good post.

OK, would you be willing to make a prediction today as to who you think will win the presidency in November? I fully understand how quickly things can and will change, but; if you were making a prediction right now, who do you think will win?

 

I think Trump. My reasons:

 

1. The national spotlight will begin to shift more equally toward Biden after the convention. I think Biden will mentally wither under this spotlight, especially at the debates. He also just doesn’t have the energy levels that Trump has, and this matters in a national crisis. Additionally, I’d say that Trump is much better at working the media than Biden.

2. The American conservative base is intrinsically more loyal and unified than America’s liberal base. Plus there’s too much accumulated left-wing scar tissue from the DNC chicanery in 2016 and 2020.

3. From a health perspective, I believe the worst is behind us even when accounting for the possibility of a second coronavirus wave in the fall. I can see the collective national psychology of this perceived “victory” easily working in the incumbent’s favor.

4. I certainly think we are facing a new economic depression, one that will permanently transform America on a political, economic, social, and international level. However, I don’t think the true misery will begin to be felt until after November when unemployment benefits start running out in large numbers.

 

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

You think Trump has a chance with a Great Depression rolling through the land? 

 

I think he has a chance, yes. See point #4 above. However, I would not bet any of my money on it. Too many variables and too much chaos between now and November.

[SoCal Deek]

35 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Getting the country back onto it's much more normal constitutional track is just a good thing. The children have had their fun, now it's time for the grown ups to be back in charge 

I’m sure you’re right. We’re was past due for another war, increased government surveillance, and expansion of centralized control. 

[Reality Check]

Joe Biden is DOA.

 

[Bill from NYC]

1 hour ago, RealKayAdams said:

 

I think Trump. My reasons:

 

1. The national spotlight will begin to shift more equally toward Biden after the convention. I think Biden will mentally wither under this spotlight, especially at the debates. He also just doesn’t have the energy levels that Trump has, and this matters in a national crisis. Additionally, I’d say that Trump is much better at working the media than Biden.

2. The American conservative base is intrinsically more loyal and unified than America’s liberal base. Plus there’s too much accumulated left-wing scar tissue from the DNC chicanery in 2016 and 2020.

3. From a health perspective, I believe the worst is behind us even when accounting for the possibility of a second coronavirus wave in the fall. I can see the collective national psychology of this perceived “victory” easily working in the incumbent’s favor.

4. I certainly think we are facing a new economic depression, one that will permanently transform America on a political, economic, social, and international level. However, I don’t think the true misery will begin to be felt until after November when unemployment benefits start running out in large numbers.

 

Thanks very much.