Gugny Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 On 9/8/2018 at 7:02 PM, Commonsense said: Bills line is now +8, as I said it would be. Easy money. Bills probably lose by 3-6, they won’t lose my more than 7. I said this in a random thread the other night. I expect the spread to go up another half a point and then get hammered down by sharps and probably end up back at 8 by kickoff. You might want to look into Gambling 000 before trying 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 I made one bet yesterday. Bills - Colts Unser 44. I thought that it was easy money the whole game. That ended quite scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted October 22, 2018 Author Share Posted October 22, 2018 21 minutes ago, Gugny said: You might want to look into Gambling 000 before trying 101. I’m having a good season. Thanks for the tip though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Call_Of_Ktulu Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 On 9/8/2018 at 6:43 PM, stuvian said: that's just too huge a line for a game played in the rain. The deflated footballs will help the Patriots not fumble. Rain is not a concern if your prepared for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 On 10/21/2018 at 2:51 PM, ChattanoogaBills said: My parlay today was miami +3... New England -2.... Indy -7.... Carolina +5. Of course the fish screwed me on that... But my teaser hit i had miami +15 ... New England+10.... Indy +5 ...Carolina+17... Easy money I'm new to football betting. Placed my first bet last weekend. Just missed my 5 team parlay that would have paid out $600. Had Houston +4, Pats -2, Vikings -3.5, Bills/Colts Under 43 (sweated that out) and Cowboys -1.5 screwed me in the late game. I'm curious about your teaser. Those spreads are unreal. Can't imagine you win much at all when those hit. Is it like bet $100 to win $20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hue5711 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 I'm an amateur better who had and ich. I finished this dashboard, which I'll maintain for the season. I have more data to use, and know the tool will evolve. Please share different ways you like to do your analysis. https://public.tableau.com/profile/jesse.huey#!/vizhome/NFL2018WK8AnalysisDashbard/Dashboard1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattanoogaBills Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 (edited) On 10/26/2018 at 11:50 AM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I'm new to football betting. Placed my first bet last weekend. Just missed my 5 team parlay that would have paid out $600. Had Houston +4, Pats -2, Vikings -3.5, Bills/Colts Under 43 (sweated that out) and Cowboys -1.5 screwed me in the late game. I'm curious about your teaser. Those spreads are unreal. Can't imagine you win much at all when those hit. Is it like bet $100 to win $20? No its a 4 team teaser i bet 120 to win 100. My bookie is the only guy i know that does 4 team teaser each team gets 12 extra points... I used to not like doing the 4 teams until another gambler schooled me to take the under dogs instead of the favorites and i have much better results. Also i have a cousin that goes to Vegas quite often and he was looking to bet a 4 team teaser (like we do here)while in vegas and was laughed out of every casino. That sold me on the 4 team 12 point teaser here. P.s. my 4 team teaser sunday was cinncy +8... Carolina+14... Wash+11 and Seattle+15... $120 to win $100... My parlay was wack wash -1... Chicago over 42- seatlle +3 and cleveland +8- On 10/21/2018 at 5:33 PM, plenzmd1 said: you are an expert betting the Bills..especially after the game is over!? I am a freaking hundred millionare if i get to bet games after they are finished! Have some stones and post before the game..not after Ok im going new England to cover straight up -14 ..$165 to win a $150 I was going to tease it but im not sure on under 50 or over 38 so we will see but im scared peterman (i know ot sounds silly) will play late and put up some points to kill my cover. I dont fear derek anderson doing anything this week Edited October 30, 2018 by ChattanoogaBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 The Bills are clearly the "sharp" side, but I'm staying far, far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattanoogaBills Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: The Bills are clearly the "sharp" side, but I'm staying far, far away. They must not be very sharp if they take buffalo this week imo but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattanoogaBills Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 On 10/21/2018 at 5:33 PM, plenzmd1 said: you are an expert betting the Bills..especially after the game is over!? I am a freaking hundred millionare if i get to bet games after they are finished! Have some stones and post before the game..not after Yeah im an expert on betting bills games ...as a diehard bills fan i've learned to separate my heart from betting. That was easy money tonight... Idk why anyone would expect derek anderson to cover 14 points vs brady and belicheat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 25 minutes ago, ChattanoogaBills said: That was easy money tonight... Idk why anyone would expect derek anderson to cover 14 points vs brady and belicheat... I wouldn't say easy money as the game played out but it was the smart play. I had it as part of my four team parlay this week that hit. I had Eagles -4, Colts -3, Packers +9.5 and Pats -13.5 I've started a red hot 7 out of 8 for my gambling career. Beginners luck I am sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattanoogaBills Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I wouldn't say easy money as the game played out but it was the smart play. I had it as part of my four team parlay this week that hit. I had Eagles -4, Colts -3, Packers +9.5 and Pats -13.5 I've started a red hot 7 out of 8 for my gambling career. Beginners luck I am sure. Sorry i dont believe in beginners luck sounds like you have a good eye for pro football lines. Do you watch alot of teams besides buffalo it sounds like you do. I was saying to my cousin (the one that goes to vegas yearly) buffalo will build you up like they are going to win then bam a fumble or pick 6. Next thing you know mccourty pick 6. So i was never really worried. I do wish i hit a parlay one of these days. I might need some picks from you this week. Edited October 30, 2018 by ChattanoogaBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Just now, ChattanoogaBills said: Sorry i dont believe in beginners luck sounds like you have a good eye for pro football lines. Do you watch alot of teams besides buffalo it sounds like you do. I actually don't watch much football at all outside of the Bills. Don't have the time anymore. I've always been better than average at just picking straight up winners in pick em leagues. I know that is not the same as picking spreads but I think it helps in some instances. Especially if you have a feel on an underdog pulling an upset. I'm also realizing the most important trait is knowing what NOT to wager on. Those games you just want to say pass on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Without the pick 6, it could have easily landed on 12, but a win is a win. The public was all over NE which is usually a reason to stay away, but I'm sure they all parlayed it with the over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattanoogaBills Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: I actually don't watch much football at all outside of the Bills. Don't have the time anymore. I've always been better than average at just picking straight up winners in pick em leagues. I know that is not the same as picking spreads but I think it helps in some instances. Especially if you have a feel on an underdog pulling an upset. I'm also realizing the most important trait is knowing what NOT to wager on. Those games you just want to say pass on. I agree in that i always seem to pick the one game that was a dog fight that screws my parlay and i get 3 out of 4 games right. Lol i might just do teasers this week hard to lose with 12 extra points a team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest K-GunJimKelly12 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 Yesterday I put a 100 on the Packers to win it all at 40/1. It just seems to me they played the Rams really hard last week and I think Rodgers would have won it for them without the Montgomery fumble. The Packers are a team I could see winning out. Even if they make it to the divisional round there should be an opportunity to hedge that. I think that is just a really juicy line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 k, i have not posted for a couple weeks but did not like anything last week..only played my small Bills Moneyline bet. I am not 100% sure why, but I really like the Bills in this spot tomorrow. Mack and Robinson being out will help, but even with them, i think the Bills are okay. Bills totally shut out Mack last year, maybe they can scheme him out again. I also think the Bears offensive numbers and DVOA are a tad misleading..Money Mitch puts up yardage but still make some Nate P type throws at times, and he may also put it on the ground with his penchant for running.I am hoping our D takes advantage for some key turnovers and maybe even a score. YPP does not look good on either side for the Bills..but again I think that is a result of many factors, and I am going to trust that Nate has a better game abd plays relaxed ball as he truly has zero pressure on him. If he gets his mind right, I think he will be successful I may split my bet a bit here and actually rake a taste of the points , but most likely will just go straight moneyline again Also, like the Bucs and Fitz @+225, and the Titans Monday night @ +195. Might bet a favorite this week too..I kinda like the Skins in this spot. Anyway, size of the bet tomorrows greatly affected by the four-legged critters running today in the Breeders Cup! Best day of the year for horse racing..love I can watch abd bet on myu phone while drinking a Jack and Coke @ the Richmond game! BTW, smidgeon on the Terps today too @ 145 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 The Bills missed the last 2 against the spread. Sounds like a week to take the 10. (And this is why I don’t gamble) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSHMEAB Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 (edited) On 10/31/2018 at 5:06 AM, K-GunJimKelly12 said: Yesterday I put a 100 on the Packers to win it all at 40/1. It just seems to me they played the Rams really hard last week and I think Rodgers would have won it for them without the Montgomery fumble. The Packers are a team I could see winning out. Even if they make it to the divisional round there should be an opportunity to hedge that. I think that is just a really juicy line. You're guaranteed to make money if they win one playoff game and with Rodgers, I doubt they're gonna be HUGE dogs to anyone. That makes the hedge more advantageous obviously. Edited November 4, 2018 by LSHMEAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 10 teamer Pitt+115 Vikes -5 Bills+10 Falcons +105 panthers -6.5 KC -9 Fins -3 Hawks-110 Broncos -115 Rams -2 On 10/31/2018 at 8:06 AM, K-GunJimKelly12 said: Yesterday I put a 100 on the Packers to win it all at 40/1. It just seems to me they played the Rams really hard last week and I think Rodgers would have won it for them without the Montgomery fumble. The Packers are a team I could see winning out. Even if they make it to the divisional round there should be an opportunity to hedge that. I think that is just a really juicy line. 8-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ol Dirty B Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Commonsense said: 10 teamer Pitt+115 Vikes -5 Bills+10 Falcons +105 panthers -6.5 KC -9 Fins -3 Hawks-110 Broncos -115 Rams -2 8-8 Who does 10 teamers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattanoogaBills Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 (edited) On 10/30/2018 at 12:45 AM, LSHMEAB said: Without the pick 6, it could have easily landed on 12, but a win is a win. The public was all over NE which is usually a reason to stay away, but I'm sure they all parlayed it with the over. Okay this week scares me with mlb tre edmunds out but for some strange reason i feel better about buffalo putting up points with peterman starting at qb. I keep thinking about the td pass to zay jones nate threw @ houston. That was a dime he dropped in... I have a feeling we will see peterman with alot of pump fakes and double moves towards the sidelines when he passes there to keep cbs from jumping our outs and curl passes. A pump fake & double move @ houston instead of a dumb out to the far hash wouldve been six the way the cb was playing that route. Anyways i dont feel as confident as an expert picking the bills game this week. But im taking the bills +10 and over 37 1/2. Without edmunds i think we give alot more pass completions over the middle and tribusky scrambles for a few big first downs. My 4 team parlay for $20 to win 200 is buffalo +10 over 37 1/2 Balt -2 1/2 (i may change the balt pick) Wash/ATL over 48 1/2 My 4 team teaser for $360 to win $300 is ( I would take buff +22 if edmunds played) but its Detroit +17 Pittsburgh +14 New orleans +14 Green bay +17 Im up $330 after my 4 team college teaser hit it was. South carolina +11.... Texas am +15... Mich st +9.... Alabama -2 i bet 240 to win 200 and i lost a 4 team parlay my friend picked and i threw $20 on it in case it hit... It didnt. I didnt like ohio st -17 1/2 i wouldve went the other way and took neb plus the points. Ok st. -6 1/2 Was another loser on there but i didnt have an opinion on the game. But thats what im feeling betting wise atm. Edited November 4, 2018 by ChattanoogaBills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhickedWilliams Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 6 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said: Who does 10 teamers? Somwone who wants $10 turned into 2k 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlayoffsPlease Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 3 hours ago, WhickedWilliams said: Somwone who wants $10 turned into 2k Somwone who wants $10 turned into $0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest K-GunJimKelly12 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 13 hours ago, Commonsense said: 10 teamer Pitt+115 Vikes -5 Bills+10 Falcons +105 panthers -6.5 KC -9 Fins -3 Hawks-110 Broncos -115 Rams -2 8-8 If the OP wasn't enough not to take you seriously in this thread, I think the fact that the Packers have a tie and it is impossible for them to go 8-8 is. I think you were looking for 7-7-2 if you are trying to say the Pack will go .500. Keep trying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said: If the OP wasn't enough not to take you seriously in this thread, I think the fact that the Packers have a tie and it is impossible for them to go 8-8 is. I think you were looking for 7-7-2 if you are trying to say the Pack will go .500. Keep trying though. I said the Pack will go .500 back in July so if they go 7-8-1 I apologize. Get a life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest K-GunJimKelly12 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 (edited) Stop giving bad advice on betting. Edited November 4, 2018 by K-GunJimKelly12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said: Stop giving bad advice on betting. I owned up the week 1 debacle. This has been left open because some posters enjoy floating their plays. If you’re coming to TBD for a play you are most likely screwed anyways. You’re mad because the Packers? Good luck with that bet, I hope you win. I don’t even see them making the playoffs. They have a middling roster with a bad HC. They don’t use Aaron Jones enough, Jaire Alexander is the only hope for that defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 5 hours ago, ChattanoogaBills said: buffalo +10 over 37 1/2 Balt -2 1/2 (i may change the balt pick) Wash/ATL over 48 1/2 Our 4 team parlays are similar. We both have Buffalo +10 and over 37.5 (i actually locked it in at 37 earlier in the week). To be honest I am only lukewarm on those two. What I really like this week is the rest of my teaser which is GB +5.5 and Tenn +6.5 The Tennessee line has moved all the way down to +4.5 since I locked it in at +6.5 I placed individual bets on all four of my parlay plays. And I also have this four team teaser which I hope keeps me from losing my ass this week should my gut feelings on the Bills game be off. Chiefs -2.5 Falcons +7.5 Chargers+8 Packers +11.5 Titans +12.5 I had two other small parlay and teaser plays ($13 bet total between the two) that were already blown up when the Raiders were a no show against the 49ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattanoogaBills Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 54 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Our 4 team parlays are similar. We both have Buffalo +10 and over 37.5 (i actually locked it in at 37 earlier in the week). To be honest I am only lukewarm on those two. What I really like this week is the rest of my teaser which is GB +5.5 and Tenn +6.5 The Tennessee line has moved all the way down to +4.5 since I locked it in at +6.5 I placed individual bets on all four of my parlay plays. And I also have this four team teaser which I hope keeps me from losing my ass this week should my gut feelings on the Bills game be off. Chiefs -2.5 Falcons +7.5 Chargers+8 Packers +11.5 Titans +12.5 I had two other small parlay and teaser plays ($13 bet total between the two) that were already blown up when the Raiders were a no show against the 49ers. The downfalls with my bookie is i cant split games on different days ( so no monday night game can be bet until monday night) and that i cant make the bet official and call it in until a hr before the first game of the day kicks off. So the line is subject to move on me and possibly sway me in a different direction. Even as of now speak im contemplating switching my teaser and parlay up a bit and changing somethings. Im seriously trying not to over think it as everytime peterman starts im not an expert on picking bills games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChattanoogaBills Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 (edited) Ok here is what i played. 4 team teaser 360 to win 300 Detroit +16 Steelers +13 Texans +13 Gb packers +17 My parlay is 30 to win 300 Kc -8 Wash -2 Buff +10 Hou. +1 I put 20 on my buddys paray Minn -4 1/2 Kc -8 Steelers +1 1/2 Panthers -6 Edited November 4, 2018 by ChattanoogaBills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elite Poster Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Always bet against the bills on money line in parlays with this coach and QB room. It's worked 6/8 and looking like 7/9 times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 0-5 bad??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Thank you Pat Mahomes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On 11/3/2018 at 5:59 AM, plenzmd1 said: k, i have not posted for a couple weeks but did not like anything last week..only played my small Bills Moneyline bet. I am not 100% sure why, but I really like the Bills in this spot tomorrow. Mack and Robinson being out will help, but even with them, i think the Bills are okay. Bills totally shut out Mack last year, maybe they can scheme him out again. Maybe it's time to lay off the wagering .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Maybe it's time to lay off the wagering .... yes, the last three weeks been kinda tough..i am down to about 50% of my bankroll for the season. Bur I am no quitter!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said: yes, the last three weeks been kinda tough..i am down to about 50% of my bankroll for the season. Bur I am no quitter!!!! They'll pull you back in ... Jets giving 8 points? Jets?? Are the Bills with Derek Anderson really 8 points worse than the Jets??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 BTW, when he books lose I tend to lose as well..means favorites are covering..and i generally only bet dogs? https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/11/05/sunday-was-a-tough-day-for-the-sportsbooks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Rough week this week. Went 2/4 on my main parlay bets. So I lost the parlay and two individual wagers. That actually wouldn't be terrible as you can't expect to win a parlay every week. But then I missed on two teasers and another parlay all three of which i had wagered only small amounts, but still. I still have double my bank roll thanks to last weeks 4 team parlay win. Nothing is looking that enticing right now for week 10. It does seem like favorites killed it last week. Maybe I should try to stick with that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 nice wins by the Titans last night..makes the week a little better @+195. We're onto week 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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