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Gambling 101 Bills line

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Bills line is now +8, as I said it would be. Easy money. Bills probably lose by 3-6, they won’t lose my more than 7. I said this in a random thread the other night. I expect the spread to go up another half a point and then get hammered down by sharps and probably end up back at 8 by kickoff.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

Great news... .

 

Could be a low scoring game so I’ll take +8.. 

Make that money.

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6 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Bills line is now +8, as I said it would be. Easy money. Bills probably lose by 3-6, they won’t lose my more than 7. I said this in a random thread the other night. I expect the spread to go up another half a point and then get hammered down by sharps and probably end up back at 8 by kickoff.

 

 

At 9 am this morning, 75% of money on Ravens..as of 6:30..74%. Hmm 

 

I actually like a small play on the BIlls moneyline here at +270.

 

PLay I really thought I would like is Cinci +2.5..but that is also 75% of the money on Cinci...that much on the side I like scares the hell out of me..especially on the dog. Sumtin very very fishy there..play at your own risk.

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If I was a betting man I would totally take that.

 

But I'm not.

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3 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

At 9 am this morning, 75% of money on Ravens..as of 6:30..74%. Hmm 

 

I actually like a small play on the BIlls moneyline here at +270.

 

PLay I really thought I would like is Cinci +2.5..but that is also 75% of the money on Cinci...that much on the side I like scares the hell out of me..especially on the dog. Sumtin very very fishy there..play at your own risk.

I detailed the Bills spread in another thread. Vegas isn’t giving away the whole pie, plus 8 is a winner no need to go for the ML that probably won’t happen.

 

 

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Just now, Commonsense said:

I detailed the Bills spread in another thread. Vegas isn’t giving away the whole pie, plus 8 is a winner no need to go for the ML that probably won’t happen.

 

 

Might not..but I rarely, like never, vary from my tried and true method of only betting dogs on the money line. 20 % of the times it burns as the dog covers..the other 80% if games whoever wins the game wins the bet...points just don't come into play. Just like any "system, it is not a sure thing...got murdered last year and went broke playing moneylines instead of taking the points... taking the points would have been a profitable year...but ya pays ya money, ya take ya chances!

 

I am going to track some other variables on that this year..incorporating public money flows and some other metrics

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21 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Bills line is now +8, as I said it would be. Easy money. Bills probably lose by 3-6, they won’t lose my more than 7. I said this in a random thread the other night. I expect the spread to go up another half a point and then get hammered down by sharps and probably end up back at 8 by kickoff.

 

 

I’ll give you the 8.... what’s the wager?

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2 minutes ago, BUFFALOTONE said:

I’ll give you the 8.... what’s the wager?

Why would taking another Bills fans money be anymore satisfying than taking it from Bovada? Do you want to bet user name rights? That seems childish but I’m not above it. 

4 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Might not..but I rarely, like never, vary from my tried and true method of only betting dogs on the money line. 20 % of the times it burns as the dog covers..the other 80% if games whoever wins the game wins the bet...points just don't come into play. Just like any "system, it is not a sure thing...got murdered last year and went broke playing moneylines instead of taking the points... taking the points would have been a profitable year...but ya pays ya money, ya take ya chances!

 

I am going to track some other variables on that this year..incorporating public money flows and some other metrics

Good luck. It doesn’t take a metric to see that Vegas isn’t scared of the Ravens blowing out the Bills. The line has consistently moved in the Ravens favor since it was created, yet the money is still flowing in. 

 

I have bet way too much money in my life but scenarios like this are good gambles. Play on the side of Vegas not on Joe Public. They are blinded by the name Nate P. 

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11 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Why would taking another Bills fans money be anymore satisfying than taking it from Bovada? Do you want to bet user name rights? That seems childish but I’m not above it. 

Good luck. It doesn’t take a metric to see that Vegas isn’t scared of the Ravens blowing out the Bills. The line has consistently moved in the Ravens favor since it was created, yet the money is still flowing in. 

 

I have bet way too much money in my life but scenarios like this are good gambles. Play on the side of Vegas not on Joe Public. They are blinded by the name Nate P. 

I already have my bet in on Bovada. Just making it interesting, I don’t bet with my heart. I’d gladly pay the 50 I laid for a win but I’m a realist. No amount of explanation outweighs the fact that we have a terrible OL, they return all of their starters on defense, we can’t stop the run and we are starting a QB on the road who last time he played in a meaningful game..... well you know what happened. It’s close for a maybe the first qtr but we lose 27-10. I love the under play here. 

 

I hope I’m wrong I will be watching but money is money. Forget the bet, but I’ll eat crow. 

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The best Bills bet is the 5.5 over under (for the season).

 

If you like your longshots the Bills to win the AFC East at 20-1 is a nice pick. Mathematically they are more like a 6-1.

Edited by Flip Johnson

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19 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Why would taking another Bills fans money be anymore satisfying than taking it from Bovada? Do you want to bet user name rights? That seems childish but I’m not above it. 

Good luck. It doesn’t take a metric to see that Vegas isn’t scared of the Ravens blowing out the Bills. The line has consistently moved in the Ravens favor since it was created, yet the money is still flowing in. 

 

I have bet way too much money in my life but scenarios like this are good gambles. Play on the side of Vegas not on Joe Public. They are blinded by the name Nate P. 

I agree , all the money on the Ravens, that’s why I like the Bills, and the Bengals scare the poop out of me. All the money on the Bengals.. a dog.  And that very rarely happens. 

 

Again, nothing is ever for sure.if it was, I would own the freakin Bills!  I like a small moneyline bet in the Bills. What I mean is if my average bet was 1 unit , I would bet .35 on the Bills money line .. 

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2 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I agree , all the money on the Ravens, that’s why I like the Bills, and the Bengals scare the poop out of me. All the money on the Bengals.. a dog.  And that very rarely happens. 

 

Again, nothing is ever for sure.if it was, I would own the freakin Bills!  I like a small moneyline bet in the Bills. What I mean is if my average bet was 1 unit , I would bet .35 on the Bills money line .. 

 

I don’t understand how the money line works 

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9 minutes ago, BUFFALOTONE said:

I already have my bet in on Bovada. Just making it interesting, I don’t bet with my heart. I’d gladly pay the 50 I laid for a win but I’m a realist. No amount of explanation outweighs the fact that we have a terrible OL, they return all of their starters on defense, we can’t stop the run and we are starting a QB on the road who last time he played in a meaningful game..... well you know what happened. It’s close for a maybe the first qtr but we lose 27-10. I love the under play here. 

 

I hope I’m wrong I will be watching but money is money. Forget the bet, but I’ll eat crow. 

Fair. I will be around after the game tomorrow you can tar and feather me if I read this spread wrong. 

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I never understood betting jargon.  This thread is basically another language to me.  

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1 hour ago, Commonsense said:

Bills line is now +8, as I said it would be. Easy money. Bills probably lose by 3-6, they won’t lose my more than 7. I said this in a random thread the other night. I expect the spread to go up another half a point and then get hammered down by sharps and probably end up back at 8 by kickoff.

 

 

This looks like a lock for the cover. I just got it in getting 8 points...

The public is all over Bal. which is a great sign.  I see a competitive lower scoring game

1 minute ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Bills not only cover, but win.  Big day for Shady in the slop

I agree. I see Shady going nuts , Murphy continuing to break out and alot of easy, quick reads for Peterman. 

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17 minutes ago, Jaraxxus said:

 

I don’t understand how the money line works 

The money line is strictly a bet on who will win the game, no points involved

 

In the Bills game, the Bills are getting 8 points. So if you bet $100, and the Bills win the game or lose by 7 points or less, you win 100. So if the Bills lose by 4, you still win the bet. If they win the game outright, you still win just the amount the bet..or $100.

 

Now lets say you the Bills win the game, and you bet the money line..you win $270

 

But if the Bills lose by that same 4 as above..you lose the $100.The Bills have to win the game.

 

Also, if you wanted to bet the Ravens to win as the favorite and not lay the points you would have to wager$340 to win $100.

 

Hope that helps

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

I agree. I see Shady going nuts , Murphy continuing to break out and alot of easy, quick reads for Peterman. 

2

when you think this way..especially at +270..you have to get something down on the money line

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1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

The money line is strictly a bet on who will win the game, no points involved

 

In the Bills game, the Bills are getting 8 points. So if you bet $100, and the Bills win the game or lose by 7 points or less, you win 100. So if the Bills lose by 4, you still win the bet. If they win the game outright, you still win just the amount the bet..or $100.

 

Now lets say you the Bills win the game, and you bet the money line..you win $270

 

But if the Bills lose by that same 4 as above..you lose the $100.The Bills have to win the game.

 

Also, if you wanted to bet the Ravens to win as the favorite and not lay the points you would have to wager$340 to win $100.

 

Hope that helps

 

 

 

when you think this way..especially at +270..you have to get something down on the money line

I already did!!

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3 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

I already did!!

last week i should have been retired on college ball! I am an FCS fan..can usually spot wrong lines pretty quick that first week of the year...but the books got smart and dont offer moneylines anymore on FCS-FBS matchups.

 

Here is my post from last Saturday morning...everyone an easy winner. My "play o the day" Nova was a 15 point dog, won easy..money line would have been close to 400...oh well

 

 

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My understanding the last time I researched this is online sports betting is legal, but processing the payment back to you for winnings is the sticky area.  Was I wrong on this or have there been changes?  

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I listened to an interview with a Ravens blogger. He called 16 - 10 Ravens which is not a cover and he's a total homer

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