The Frankish Reich Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 8 points is a lot, but ... (1) it's too low, not too high, if you go by the wisdom of the crowd theory. If 75% of the money was still going on the Ravens with the line at 7, that tells you something ... (2) Bills fans think "Peterman played well in preseason, he actually looked o.k. in that snow game, he's not a total unknown commodity, we should be viewing him as at least an average NFL backup quality QB." The world thinks, "they are really starting the guy who set the record for most interceptions in a half? The guy with a 38.4 QB rating last year?" They're treating this as if your real starting QB got hurt and you're forced to go with a Jeff Tuel as the starter. I'm a Bills fan, and I'm solidly in "at least an average NFL backup quality QB" camp, which means 8 points is too much. But you gotta admit it: there's a damn good argument that taking the Ravens and giving 8 points is a pretty good bet ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ol Dirty B Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 My advice to everyone is not to listen to anyone giving out gambling advice. Their is a reason why Vegas wins. If it was so easy that some guy on a message board can crack the code, that business and bookies wouldn't exist. They risk a ton of federal charges exactly because of these people. Myself included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said: My advice to everyone is not to listen to anyone giving out gambling advice. Their is a reason why Vegas wins. If it was so easy that some guy on a message board can crack the code, that business and bookies wouldn't exist. They risk a ton of federal charges exactly because of these people. Myself included. Vegas wins because of the vig. Period. Bookmakers have to set the line at a point where roughly equal amounts are wagered on the two teams; this allows them to avoid lopsided payouts. They do not predict winners and losers; they reflect amounts wagered or expected to be wagered. I expect the whole business to get better/more transparent as states start to roll out their own sports books in response to the recent court decision. I bet solely for fun. It can add a little extra interest in watching a game, and I have zero interest in fantasy football, which I think will start to dry up when the real thing becomes more easily accessible. https://www.bestonlinebettingsites.com/strategy/vig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ol Dirty B Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Vegas wins because of the vig. Period. Bookmakers have to set the line at a point where roughly equal amounts are wagered on the two teams; this allows them to avoid lopsided payouts. They do not predict winners and losers; they reflect amounts wagered or expected to be wagered. I expect the whole business to get better/more transparent as states start to roll out their own sports books in response to the recent court decision. I bet solely for fun. It can add a little extra interest in watching a game, and I have zero interest in fantasy football, which I think will start to dry up when the real thing becomes more easily accessible. https://www.bestonlinebettingsites.com/strategy/vig I mean you pretty much made my point. I never said what you're insinuating I did. I never said they predict winners and losers. But it is always set for them to end up winning vs the gambler. I gamble for fun too, but easy money, locks, and all this stuff. It's wrong a lot more than it is right. That is all I was saying. Interesting read though. Edited September 9, 2018 by Ol Dirty B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GottaRun Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 (edited) I've gone with New Orleans straight up The Bills with the points The Bills straight up The Browns straight up Right now I can only get sports bets on 888poker, I see people getting better odds than I'm getting, need to look into Bovada. Any suggestions on understanding sports betting better greatly appreciated - I've been checking out the previous link but I'm not sure how to decipher how to use it to make a more informed bet http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/bills-@-ravens.cfm/date/09-09-18 ** Actually I got the Bills at 3.45 so a $20 bet pays $69 - does that mean I got that with a better payout? Edited September 9, 2018 by driddles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ol Dirty B Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 19 hours ago, Commonsense said: Bills line is now +8, as I said it would be. Easy money. Bills probably lose by 3-6, they won’t lose my more than 7. I said this in a random thread the other night. I expect the spread to go up another half a point and then get hammered down by sharps and probably end up back at 8 by kickoff. Remember what I said in this thread earlier? Never listen to people about gambling. They're wrong all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gridrick Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 take baltimore plus whatever points you get in the second half. The Bills will be lucky to get 100 yards of offense today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apuszczalowski Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Lol, so hows everyone going to spend their winnings? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gridrick Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 hour ago, driddles said: I've gone with New Orleans straight up The Bills with the points The Bills straight up The Browns straight up Right now I can only get sports bets on 888poker, I see people getting better odds than I'm getting, need to look into Bovada. Any suggestions on understanding sports betting better greatly appreciated - I've been checking out the previous link but I'm not sure how to decipher how to use it to make a more informed bet http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/bills-@-ravens.cfm/date/09-09-18 ** Actually I got the Bills at 3.45 so a $20 bet pays $69 - does that mean I got that with a better payout? keep posting. youre a golden goose to bet against 2 hours ago, driddles said: I've gone with New Orleans straight up The Bills with the points The Bills straight up The Browns straight up Right now I can only get sports bets on 888poker, I see people getting better odds than I'm getting, need to look into Bovada. Any suggestions on understanding sports betting better greatly appreciated - I've been checking out the previous link but I'm not sure how to decipher how to use it to make a more informed bet http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/bills-@-ravens.cfm/date/09-09-18 ** Actually I got the Bills at 3.45 so a $20 bet pays $69 - does that mean I got that with a better payout? so here's your suggestion. Get all your money back on Baltimore for the 2nd half. ...Dont worry about middling yourself, thats the trap just hit balty for an easy score. it is a pick em. no points. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Vegas wins because of the vig. Period. Bookmakers have to set the line at a point where roughly equal amounts are wagered on the two teams; this allows them to avoid lopsided payouts. This is as wrong as wrong can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gridrick Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 (edited) 7 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: This is as wrong as wrong can be in some cases, but you are right. for the most part it's as wrong as wrong can be. Best advice I can give is wherever your eye is drawn to the easy one, that is the loser. If youre really studious though you'll spot easy games....and then you might not believe yourself. Best thing to do is find another hobby. Still they're giving us money on this Ravens game. Edited September 9, 2018 by gridrick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, gridrick said: in some cases, but you are right. for the most part it's as wrong as wrong can be. Best advice I can give is wherever your eye is drawn to the easy one, that is the loser. If youre really studious though you'll spot easy games. Studious. What do you look for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gridrick Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 1 minute ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said: Studious. What do you look for? i look for **** like this. The world doesnt believe Peterman is that bad because a franchise actually made him a starter. Youre looking for a quick what to look for and there isnt one. Get a list of odds that has pinnacle sports on it and try to get a number better than than their number for whichever side you like. Look on saturday night at the list and the odds ..if a game jumps at you and you think" i'm betting them"..do not bet yet cause you dont know what the hell youre doing.....if the odds move against you bet the other side. if they stay the same then your instincts might be right. ..............get into your own head and dont read too many opinions. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gridrick Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 you bet...i'll check back in sometimes throughout the year. Now the angle wornt work because everybody but the Bills knows that peterman is bad......so disappointing that the brass gave away a good quarterback in Mccarron. Now you know the regime doesnt know what the hell theyre doing with a good rookie quarterback either. They might as well try and get ej manuel or someone on this roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 dip dip dip dip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GottaRun Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 I didn't have much on the Bills or Browns so neither of them bug me. The Saints on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gridrick Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 did you get Ravens second half. Still should work but didnt count on Allen vs Jackson. Allen wins that most times i think but we have a 14 point cushion thanks to peterman. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GottaRun Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 Just now, gridrick said: did you get Ravens second half. Still should work but didnt count on Allen vs Jackson. Allen wins that most times i think but we have a 14 point cushion thanks to peterman. I didn't have enough on it to motivate me to go upstairs to my computer and make the bet. I'll go back to soccer betting next weekend and sit on the sidelines for the NFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gridrick Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 oh come on...let us make some money.. Who do you like in the later games? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offside Number 76 Posted September 9, 2018 Share Posted September 9, 2018 (edited) 20 hours ago, Commonsense said: Bills line is now +8, as I said it would be. Easy money. Bills probably lose by 3-6, they won’t lose my more than 7. I said this in a random thread the other night. I expect the spread to go up another half a point and then get hammered down by sharps and probably end up back at 8 by kickoff. 20 hours ago, Commonsense said: Make that money. 20 hours ago, Commonsense said: I detailed the Bills spread in another thread. Vegas isn’t giving away the whole pie, plus 8 is a winner no need to go for the ML that probably won’t happen. 20 hours ago, Commonsense said: Why would taking another Bills fans money be anymore satisfying than taking it from Bovada? Do you want to bet user name rights? That seems childish but I’m not above it. Good luck. It doesn’t take a metric to see that Vegas isn’t scared of the Ravens blowing out the Bills. The line has consistently moved in the Ravens favor since it was created, yet the money is still flowing in. I have bet way too much money in my life but scenarios like this are good gambles. Play on the side of Vegas not on Joe Public. They are blinded by the name Nate P. 19 hours ago, Commonsense said: Fair. I will be around after the game tomorrow you can tar and feather me if I read this spread wrong. How much did you lose? Edited September 9, 2018 by Offside Number 76 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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