Gambling 101 Bills line

[gridrick]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

thx for this..i  dont track NCAA as much..as you know just love that first week FCS action!!!

Could be..I dont care if they have 100 tickets and on team and 30 on the other..i care about how much money is wagered...tracking # of tickets..WTF cares?

you should be more concerned with the number of tickets.  Thats easy to see.  Everybody and their brother at work likes one side on the monday night football game and they all turn up wrong.  The majority of small type bettors have a hard time betting unders and underdogs.  

[Batman1876]

This was a worse bet than when I picked the Generals over the Globetrotters. 

[The Frankish Reich]

4 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

When I see a line move beyond 7 with no buy back from sharps, that's a sign I want to be on the favorite. That thing went from 6.5 to 7 to 7.5 to 8 to 8.5 with ZERO resistance. Plenty of public money eventually trickled in on the Bills and that enticing touchdown cushion.

 

I generally focus on small home dogs, but I'm also more likely to take a big favorite than a small one. Just how I roll.

This is kind of akin to the market velocity theories some stock market investors follow, but I think the undercurrent there is the assumption that big investors (institutional or otherwise) “know” something the public doesn’t know. Here ... what? That Peterman is starting, that he was horrid in his previous start (I’ll discount the snow game), that the Bills lost the entire left side of their O line in the off-season, that Baltimore looked sharp in preseason whereas the Bills looked completely unready ... in other words, the sharps knew exactly what anyone who was paying attention knew. 

[gridrick]

14 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

When I see a line move beyond 7 with no buy back from sharps, that's a sign I want to be on the favorite. That thing went from 6.5 to 7 to 7.5 to 8 to 8.5 with ZERO resistance. Plenty of public money eventually trickled in on the Bills and that enticing touchdown cushion.

 

I generally focus on small home dogs, but I'm also more likely to take a big favorite than a small one. Just how I roll.

 

As far as how books operate and approach a line, they will shade but damn near never gamble. The notion that they're setting lines JUST to trap idiots is fallacious. It certainly happens, but it's not their original intent.

PINNACLESPORTS LINE MOVEMENTS   Money Line Spread Total 1st Half 2nd Half Date Time Fav Dog Fav Dog Over Under Fav Dog Fav Dog 04/21 8:03pm     BAL-3.5 -105 BUF+3.5 -105 42.5 -105 42.5 -105         04/21 9:28pm     BAL-3.5 -105 BUF+3.5 -105 42.5 -108 42.5 -102         04/22 12:41pm     BAL-3.5 -108 BUF+3.5 -102 42.5 -108 42.5 -102         04/22 12:42pm     BAL-3.5 -111 BUF+3.5 +101 42.5 -108 42.5 -102         04/23 7:52am     BAL-4 -110 BUF+4 -100 42.5 -108 42.5 -102         05/01 5:46pm     BAL-4 -117 BUF+4 +106 42.5 -108 42.5 -102         05/02 11:29am     BAL-4 -115 BUF+4 +104 42.5 -108 42.5 -102         05/14 12:13pm     BUF-4 -115 BUF+4 +104 42.5 -105 42.5 -105         05/14 3:33pm     BUF-4 -115 BUF+4 +104 42.5 +102 42.5 -112         05/25 10:27am     BAL-4 -121 BUF+4 +110 42.5 +102 42.5 -112         06/23 8:24pm     BUF-4 -121 BUF+4 +110 42.5 +107 42.5 -118         06/25 2:47pm     BUF-4 -121 BUF+4 +110 42.5 +113 42.5 -125         06/27 4:01pm     BAL-4 -118 BUF+4 +107 42.5 +115 42.5 -127         06/30 7:58am     BAL-4 -118 BUF+4 +107 41.0 -100 41.0 -110         06/30 9:17am     BAL-4 -118 BUF+4 +107 41.0 -105 41.0 -105         07/01 8:54am BAL-218 BUF+195 BAL-4.5 -110 BUF+4.5 -100 41.0 -105 41.0 -105         07/01 2:50pm BAL-239 BUF+213 BAL-4.5 -119 BUF+4.5 +108 41.0 -105 41.0 -105         07/05 11:22pm BAL-239 BUF+213 BAL-4.5 -116 BUF+4.5 +105 41.0 -105 41.0 -105         07/08 6:32pm BAL-239 BUF+213 BAL-4.5 -113 BUF+4.5 +102 41.0 -105 41.0 -105         07/17 3:40am BAL-239 BUF+213 BAL-3.5 -105 BUF+3.5 -105 41.0 -102 41.0 -108         07/24 1:49pm BAL-239 BUF+213 BAL-4.5 -117 BUF+4.5 +106 41.0 -102 41.0 -108         07/24 2:13pm BAL-241 BUF+215 BAL-5.5 -110 BUF+5.5 -100 41.0 -102 41.0 -108         07/28 9:12am BAL-255 BUF+227 BAL-6 -110 BUF+6 -100 41.0 -102 41.0 -108         08/10 8:42am BAL-255 BUF+227 BAL-6 -112 BUF+6 +102 41.0 -102 41.0 -108         08/17 7:54am BAL-275 BUF+244 BAL-6.5 -110 BUF+6.5 -100 41.0 -102 41.0 -108         08/17 10:39am BAL-275 BUF+244 BAL-7 +104 BUF+7 -115 41.0 -102 41.0 -108         08/17 7:36pm BAL XX BUF XX BALXX XX BUFXX XX XX XX XX XX         08/27 6:23am BAL-280 BUF+248 BAL-7 +103 BUF+7 -114 41.0 -102 41.0 -108         08/27 9:30am BAL-280 BUF+248 BAL-7 +100 BUF+7 -110 41.0 -102 41.0 -108         08/27 7:38pm BAL-280 BUF+248 BAL-7 +100 BUF+7 -110 41.0 +102 41.0 -112         08/28 10:02pm BAL-280 BUF+248 BAL-7 +100 BUF+7 -110 41.0 +102 41.0 -113         08/30 9:19pm BAL-280 BUF+248 BAL-7 -103 BUF+7 -107 41.0 +102 41.0 -113         09/01 6:45pm BAL-218 BUF+195 BAL-7 -105 BUF+7 -105 41.0 +102 41.0 -113         09/02 2:33pm BAL-218 BUF+195 BAL-7 +100 BUF+7 -110 41.0 +102 41.0 -113         09/02 2:39pm BAL-218 BUF+195 BAL-7 +103 BUF+7 -114 41.0 +102 41.0 -113         09/02 11:57pm BAL-218 BUF+195 BAL-7 +103 BUF+7 -114 40.5 -105 40.5 -105         09/03 8:20am BAL-218 BUF+195 BAL-7 +100 BUF+7 -110 40.5 -105 40.5 -105         09/03 8:30am BAL-290 BUF+256 BAL-7 -103 BUF+7 -107 40.5 -105 40.5 -105         09/04 7:47am BAL-295 BUF+260 BAL-7 -103 BUF+7 -107 40.5 -105 40.5 -105         09/04 12:52pm BAL-295 BUF+260 BAL-7 -104 BUF+7 -106 40.5 -105 40.5 -105         09/05 8:23am BAL-300 BUF+264 BAL-7 -106 BUF+7 -104 40.5 -105 40.5 -105         09/05 9:59am BAL-310 BUF+273 BAL-7 -111 BUF+7 +101 40.5 -105 40.5 -105         09/05 10:18am BAL-320 BUF+281 BAL-7.5 +103 BUF+7.5 -114 40.5 -105 40.5 -105         09/05 10:20am BAL-320 BUF+281 BAL-7.5 +102 BUF+7.5 -113 40.5 -105 40.5 -105         09/07 4:45pm BAL-320 BUF+281 BAL-7.5 +102 BUF+7.5 -113 40.5 +103 40.5 -114         09/08 12:47am BAL-325 BUF+285 BAL-7.5 +102 BUF+7.5 -113 40.5 +103 40.5 -114         09/08 7:40am BAL-325 BUF+285 BAL-7.5 +102 BUF+7.5 -113 40.5 +111 40.5 -122         09/08 11:26am BAL-325 BUF+285 BAL-7.5 +102 BUF+7.5 -113 39.5 -109 39.5 -101         09/08 11:38am BAL-325 BUF+285 BAL-7.5 +102 BUF+7.5 -113 39.5 -109 39.5 -101 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/08 11:44am BAL-331 BUF+290 BAL-7.5 -100 BUF+7.5 -110 39.5 -109 39.5 -101 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/08 11:44am BAL-331 BUF+290 BAL-7.5 -100 BUF+7.5 -110 39.5 -109 39.5 -101 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/08 6:46pm BAL-331 BUF+290 BAL-7.5 -100 BUF+7.5 -110 39.5 -107 39.5 -103 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/08 7:07pm BAL-334 BUF+292 BAL-7.5 -101 BUF+7.5 -109 39.5 -107 39.5 -103 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 2:35am BAL-334 BUF+292 BAL-7.5 -101 BUF+7.5 -109 39.5 -107 39.5 -103 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 4:13am BAL-334 BUF+292 BAL-7.5 -101 BUF+7.5 -109 39.5 -107 39.5 -103 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 7:21am BAL-334 BUF+292 BAL-7.5 -101 BUF+7.5 -109 39.5 -105 39.5 -105 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 8:29am BAL-334 BUF+292 BAL-7.5 -101 BUF+7.5 -109 39.5 -105 39.5 -105 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 8:36am BAL-339 BUF+296 BAL-7.5 -103 BUF+7.5 -107 39.5 -105 39.5 -105 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 8:36am BAL-339 BUF+296 BAL-7.5 -103 BUF+7.5 -107 39.5 -105 39.5 -105 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 9:05am BAL-335 BUF+293 BAL-7.5 -103 BUF+7.5 -107 39.5 -105 39.5 -105 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 9:11am BAL-340 BUF+297 BAL-7.5 -105 BUF+7.5 -105 39.5 -105 39.5 -105 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 9:11am BAL-340 BUF+297 BAL-7.5 -105 BUF+7.5 -105 39.5 -105 39.5 -105 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 9:22am BAL-340 BUF+297 BAL-7.5 -105 BUF+7.5 -105 39.5 -105 39.5 -105 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 9:34am BAL-340 BUF+297 BAL-7.5 -105 BUF+7.5 -105 39.5 -105 39.5 -105 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 10:07am BAL-345 BUF+302 BAL-7.5 -107 BUF+7.5 -103 39.0 -100 39.0 -110 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 10:07am BAL-345 BUF+302 BAL-7.5 -107 BUF+7.5 -103 39.0 -100 39.0 -110 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 10:08am BAL-345 BUF+302 BAL-7.5 -107 BUF+7.5 -103 39.0 -102 39.0 -108 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 10:36am BAL-345 BUF+302 BAL-7.5 -107 BUF+7.5 -103 39.0 +102 39.0 -113 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 10:38am BAL-345 BUF+302 BAL-7.5 -107 BUF+7.5 -103 39.0 +101 39.0 -111 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 10:40am BAL-345 BUF+302 BAL-7.5 -107 BUF+7.5 -103 39.0 +101 39.0 -111 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 10:49am BAL-345 BUF+302 BAL-7.5 -107 BUF+7.5 -103 39.0 -101 39.0 -109 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 11:46am BAL-355 BUF+310 BAL-7.5 -108 BUF+7.5 -102 39.0 -101 39.0 -109 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 11:46am BAL-355 BUF+310 BAL-7.5 -108 BUF+7.5 -102 39.0 -101 39.0 -109 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:00pm BAL-362 BUF+315 BAL-7.5 -110 BUF+7.5 -100 39.0 -101 39.0 -109 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:00pm BAL-362 BUF+315 BAL-7.5 -110 BUF+7.5 -100 39.0 -101 39.0 -109 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:10pm BAL-362 BUF+315 BAL-7.5 -110 BUF+7.5 -100 39.0 +100 39.0 -110 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:21pm BAL-339 BUF+297 BAL-7.5 -102 BUF+7.5 -108 39.0 +100 39.0 -110 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:21pm BAL-339 BUF+297 BAL-7.5 -102 BUF+7.5 -108 39.0 +100 39.0 -110 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:39pm BAL-342 BUF+299 BAL-7.5 -103 BUF+7.5 -107 39.0 +100 39.0 -110 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:39pm BAL-342 BUF+299 BAL-7.5 -103 BUF+7.5 -107 39.0 +100 39.0 -110 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:42pm BAL-342 BUF+299 BAL-7.5 -103 BUF+7.5 -107 39.0 +104 39.0 -115 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:44pm BAL-330 BUF+289 BAL-7.5 +100 BUF+7.5 -110 39.0 +104 39.0 -115 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:44pm BAL-330 BUF+289 BAL-7.5 +100 BUF+7.5 -110 39.0 +104 39.0 -115 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:46pm BAL-344 BUF+300 BAL-7.5 -105 BUF+7.5 -105 39.0 +104 39.0 -115 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:46pm BAL-344 BUF+300 BAL-7.5 -105 BUF+7.5 -105 39.0 +104 39.0 -115 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:53pm BAL-344 BUF+300 BAL-7.5 -105 BUF+7.5 -105 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:57pm BAL-344 BUF+300 BAL-7.5 -105 BUF+7.5 -105 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:58pm BAL-377 BUF+327 BAL-7.5 -106 BUF+7.5 -104 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 12:58pm BAL-377 BUF+327 BAL-7.5 -106 BUF+7.5 -104 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 1:00pm BAL-360 BUF+314 BAL-7.5 -106 BUF+7.5 -104 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 1:02pm BAL-355 BUF+309 BAL-7.5 -104 BUF+7.5 -106 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5     09/09 2:41pm BAL-355 BUF+309 BAL-7.5 -104 BUF+7.5 -106 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5 BUFPK BALPK 09/09 2:43pm BAL-355 BUF+309 BAL-7.5 -104 BUF+7.5 -106 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5 BUFPK BALPK 09/09 2:44pm BAL-355 BUF+309 BAL-7.5 -104 BUF+7.5 -106 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5 BUFPK BALPK 09/09 2:46pm BAL-355 BUF+309 BAL-7.5 -104 BUF+7.5 -106 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5 BUFPK BALPK 09/09 2:49pm BAL-355 BUF+309 BAL-7.5 -104 BUF+7.5 -106 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5 BUFPK BALPK 09/09 2:51pm BAL-355 BUF+309 BAL-7.5 -104 BUF+7.5 -106 39.0 +109 39.0 -120 BAL-4.5 BUF+4.5 BUFPK BALPK

 

your thinking isnt bad.........steady pointspread movement.  

jets game under for me tonight boys.....good luck

[LSHMEAB]

The Bills actually look like a play this week!

[Kirby Jackson]

On 9/9/2018 at 5:49 AM, Kirby Jackson said:

I hit a nice score yesterday with the UB money line and A & M +9.5 so I am taking a shot today.

 

I teased the Ravens to -1.5. I also used the Rams, Bengals (money line), Vikings, Panthers, Saints, Browns (money line) and the under in Skins vs. Cardinals (not all in the same bet obviously). 

 

 

Not too give myself too much credit but that’s 6-1-1. ??

Edited September 11, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[GottaRun]

Still learning NFL betting, question -

 

looking at the link provided the other day for odds the Bills are shown as +2.60 to +2.80 for this weekends game http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money/. 

 

Over on 888 poker they are shown at 3.40 https://poker.888sport.com/bet/#/filter/american_football/nfl 

 

Is this a different way in displaying odds or is the gap as wide as 2.60 - 3.40

Edited September 11, 2018 by driddles

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Not too give myself too much credit but that’s 6-1-1. ??

Go ahead, take your victory lap! I mentioned the Jags, Bengals and Rams, all winners

[plenzmd1]

On 9/11/2018 at 1:50 PM, driddles said:

Still learning NFL betting, question -

 

looking at the link provided the other day for odds the Bills are shown as +2.60 to +2.80 for this weekends game http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money/. 

 

Over on 888 poker they are shown at 3.40 https://poker.888sport.com/bet/#/filter/american_football/nfl 

 

Is this a different way in displaying odds or is the gap as wide as 2.60 - 3.40

sorry driddles, just coming back to this thread...i am not quite sure what you are seeing. +260 would have indicated for 100 you bet on the Bills to win the game outright and not take any points, you would get paid 260.

 

For instance, when I click on that link now, the Bills say +1000..so, for every 100 you bet, you get 1000 back if the Bills win the game outright.

Curious what you all thought about this..does house owe?

 

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/19/649622527/what-are-the-odds-fanduel-says-it-wont-honor-huge-payouts-after-error

BTW, I have made one small freaking bet on pro football so far...liked nothing last week, and don't see a play this week either... I just a sissy boy!

 

Maybe a teensy bet on the Bills and the points,  plus an even teensier Bills moneyline.

 

 

[Fadingpain]

On 9/8/2018 at 7:02 PM, Commonsense said:

Bills line is now +8, as I said it would be. Easy money. Bills probably lose by 3-6, they won’t lose my more than 7. I said this in a random thread the other night. I expect the spread to go up another half a point and then get hammered down by sharps and probably end up back at 8 by kickoff.

 

 

Yep, easy money.

 

For the house!

 

[CommonCents]

42 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

Yep, easy money.

 

For the house!

 

Dallas over Seahawks book it. ?

[plenzmd1]

+ 150 on the Jets tonight has my interest...everything points to a Browns win...but when was the last time you get1.5 odds betting against the Browns, and the public was on the Browns?

 

Game time decision as they say

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

+ 150 on the Jets tonight has my interest...everything points to a Browns win...but when was the last time you get1.5 odds betting against the Browns, and the public was on the Browns?

 

Game time decision as they say

Between that and the under you might have an interesting parlay

[GottaRun]

24 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

+ 150 on the Jets tonight has my interest...everything points to a Browns win...but when was the last time you get1.5 odds betting against the Browns, and the public was on the Browns?

 

Game time decision as they say

My money is on the Browns.  So the right bet is to do the opposite of what I do.  

 

Re: The question on the odds, I was just surprised to see how much better the odds were for that game on a different site.  Is a wide difference between sites normal the night before a game?

 

If so I should get registered with a couple of other sites and go with who offers the best odds on that particular game.

 

Most of my lifetime of gambling is poker and craps.  I'm only beginning to try and understand sports wagering.

Edited September 20, 2018 by driddles

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

I'm betting on Temple to cover at home vs Tulsa tonight. 

[GottaRun]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

 

Curious what you all thought about this..does house owe?

 

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/19/649622527/what-are-the-odds-fanduel-says-it-wont-honor-huge-payouts-after-error

 

 

Years ago when the Ontario government added soccer to proline betting they made a mistake where they forgot to account for the time zone difference.

 

They accepted bets after games had ended.

 

If my memory is right they paid out because the optics of not paying out aren't good.

[row_33]

27 minutes ago, driddles said:

Years ago when the Ontario government added soccer to proline betting they made a mistake where they forgot to account for the time zone difference.

 

They accepted bets after games had ended.

 

If my memory is right they paid out because the optics of not paying out aren't good.

 

one year they put a full slate of December 26th soccer games from England with the betting deadline well beyond time zone differences

 

 

the best bet was the over/under on NBA games, the line was declared on Friday for an entire week, it was easy pickings after injuries kicked in by the 6th and 7th days

 

 

[BUFFALOTONE]

1 hour ago, plenzmd1 said:

+ 150 on the Jets tonight has my interest...everything points to a Browns win...but when was the last time you get1.5 odds betting against the Browns, and the public was on the Browns?

 

Game time decision as they say

Jets will have played 3 games in 11 days....they were exposed by a mediocre Fins team. The Browns Defense is legit, they win going away 27-13.

[patneiler]

I put $50 on the Bills moneyline 10-1 odds this weekend! 

[plenzmd1]

49 minutes ago, BUFFALOTONE said:

Jets will have played 3 games in 11 days....they were exposed by a mediocre Fins team. The Browns Defense is legit, they win going away 27-13.

Browns will have as well correct? 12 days..that's right Jets were the Monday nighter.

 

I agree points to the Browns ...but damn..+150 on someone to beat the Browns??? Let that sink in for a minute. Plus the DVOA of the Jets D is actually higher right now then the Browns, as is the offense. Now granted, I think the DVOA after two games is really freaking a guess ar best...and I won't use their DAVErankings ar all. And let's not forget we have Tyrod Freaking Taylor running the Browns O...if the D does not set him up with turnovers and short fields...ya got a toss-up game I think and I would rather have Darnold in the clutch over Tyrod.

 

So.... ... that +150 seems suspicious to me too..almost likes they beggin ya to take the Jets on the Moneyline...

 

Prolly the worst strategy in the world..but i'm a gunna cook dinner, have a few pops..and then decide!!