SI's Andy Benoit: Buffalo Bills 2018 Season Preview

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, dubs said:

 

Fair enough, but nothing he wrote was very original or thought provoking. 

 

I find him credible and knowledgeable as he knows NFL personnel and schemes.  It is what it is as they say so we'll see about his projection.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Turnover differential accounted for much of this.  Can they repeat at that level?

 

He's right about the Bills' 2018 OL as much as you try to paint a rosy picture.

 

He's paid to offer his opinion based on the talent on hand rather than an optimistic forecast that Bills' fans want to read about.

I don't know if he's correct or not.  My point is only that he takes data that supports his point and ignores data that doesn't support it. 

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't know if he's correct or not.  My point is only that he takes data that supports his point and ignores data that doesn't support it. 

 

He hasn't ignored anything.  He assessed the team based on personnel, coaching, and scheme to give a projection. 

[Paulus]

On 8/22/2018 at 11:12 AM, Heitz said:

 

 

Really?  Reeeeally!?

 

You can argue a lot... I say it is (insert team here). Not really a bold statement, nor is it saying anything.

[QCity]

He's an astute analyst and that assessment is fair, even though it won't go over well here.

[dubs]

33 minutes ago, QCity said:

He's an astute analyst and that assessment is fair, even though it won't go over well here.

Point is that the whole article is essentially a restatement of a commonly held set of beliefs about the 2018 Bills. Could be right, could be wrong, but none of it is remotely insightful or interesting or original. 

Edited August 23, 2018 by dubs

[GETTOTHE50]

I dont get why people ignore special teams so much.

 

Sure the kick off is a wash.

 

But a great way to take advantage of opportunities is by kicking field goals/extra points, great punts, and returning them. A missed FG, or great punt swings the momentum and field position. 

 

The Bills are able to keep games very close because of their special teams. Whether you like or not, its a big part of their identity. I call it taking advantage and using everything at your disposal to win, and part of what makes this team a nuisance to deal with. That is, if everyone else can perform at a competitive level. (Obviously LA and NO blew us away and ST had no bearing)

 

[boater]

Quote

Not only are the Bills inexperienced at QB, they’re downright futile up front. Last year’s O-line already lacked athleticism, and now its two best players, left guard Richie Incognito and center Eric Wood, have been replaced by men who’d be backups on just about any other squad (Vladimir Ducasse at guard, Russell Bodine or Ryan Groy at center).

 

That quote is spot on. I just rewatched quarter 1 of the Cleveland game---Cleveland had their way with the OL, hence McCarron's injury.

 

I shudder to think of what will happen to any QB behind that line for four quarters against a starting NFL defense. One thing is for sure, the Bills should keep 3 QB on the roster & practice squad, they are going to need all 3.

 

I found Andy Benoit's article to be uninformed and excessively negative, with the exception of the OL.

 

8-8 and I'll recover from that.

 

 

[IronyAbounds]

Last time I checked, preseason prognostications don't factor into which teams make the playoffs. If I were forced to guess I think Benoit is likely more right than wrong, but that and $5.00 gets me a mediocre combo at McDonalds. I never understand why people get worked up by pundits' views, power rankings or the like. They actually may have an impact on who makes the NCAA football playoffs or NCAA basketball tourney, but in the NFL they are less important than where Millard Fillmore ate lunch when he resided in Buffalo.  Either you win the games or you don't, everything else is simply background noise.

[Augie]

Is anyone else happy we kept our top draft picks for next year?

 

 

I’d be shocked if we only win 4 games, but I’m not about just next year. If Allen is the guy, drafting a little higher is just, well......helpful in the process of surrounding him with a team.  Big IF, but if he’s NOT the guy, not much else matters. It’s back to the starting line. 

[TroutDog]

On 8/23/2018 at 10:09 AM, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It's 2018 and this shouldn't even be an actual question given all of the ways to follow/watch a team to become familiar with personnel.

I’ll respectfully disagree. I do not believe it’s the same as being there through the warm-up, the camaraderie, speeches, coaching, etc. One can see a completely different team when physically there and attentive through an entire practice (ie: local reporters). 

 

Very little of that is able to be watched on film, save the Bills Embdedded, and even that is slanted. 

[blacklabel]

Benoit recently tweeted out that while he thinks highly of Aaron Donald, he said, how does a guy who's part of the 30th ranked run defense run away with Defensive Player of the Year?

 

The ensuing thread was the first Twitter thread where every single response vehemently disagrees with his take. Several other analysts shot down his take as well. Someone pointed out how a strong run defense doesn't correlate to wins. Another point was made that some defensive coordinators don't worry too much about having a strong run D so long as their secondary is stout. Another individual pointed out that Mack was DPOY in '16 while part of the Raiders 24th ranked rush defense. It was a pretty awful take all around.

 

A year or two ago he went up against Chris Harris, Jr. for an article. He wrote that he legitimately thought he beat Harris on several routes...until teammates told him, "Dude, if Chris didn't want you to catch any passes, you wouldn't have, he was letting you have some fun." 

 

So, he knows some stuff but I also think he's a bit full of himself and as Shaw pointed out, he definitely seemed to approach his article on the Bills with his own subjective opinion that they'd be bad this year then went and found data to specifically back that up while refusing to look at an analyze things contradictory to his own point. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 8/22/2018 at 3:18 PM, DCOrange said:

 

We'll have to agree to disagree. The Bills O-Line was looked at as a top 10 unit last year and it's potentially the worst in the league this year. For example, PFF had them ranked as the 7th best in the league by the end of the season last year and has them ranked #29 entering the season.

 

Tyrod was roughly an average to above average starter last year, and more importantly, he protected the ball at an astonishing rate (sometimes to the team's detriment). That ability to protect the ball, coupled with the defense forcing turnovers at an elite rate, is pretty much the only things that Buffalo really did well last season. Even with McCoy and a good O-Line, they didn't run the ball all that well. Obviously they didn't pass it that well either, but the fact that they didn't turn the ball over and also forced turnovers at a huge rate was easily the biggest factor in the team winning 9 games. That just isn't going to happen this year. I'm confident in Allen and think he'll develop into a very good QB in the future, but it would be very surprising if Buffalo gets improved QB play this season unless it's a result of a far better offensive system thanks to Daboll.

 

Edit: I’ll put it this way. Tyrod was #13 QB on PFF and #14 in QBR. I don’t expect the Bills starting QB in 2018 to be ranked higher than either of those this year. 

 

Only PFF could look at an OL that saw team declines in both rush ypa and passing productivity, and grade them top-10

Only PFF could look at a QB who is near the bottom of the league in passing and <200 ypg and who played with an offense that dropped precipitously in PF, and call him #13 overall.

[The Frankish Reich]

On 8/23/2018 at 2:37 PM, dubs said:

Point is that the whole article is essentially a restatement of a commonly held set of beliefs about the 2018 Bills. Could be right, could be wrong, but none of it is remotely insightful or interesting or original. 

It’s not insightful or original if you are a Bills fan who is obsessive enough to read and comment on this board. But that’s not who he’s writing for! It’s a national column for what’s left of a national sports outlet. I’m sure it’s quite useful for, say, Niners fans, just as a Niners writeup is useful for Bills fans (quick, name 3 Niners starters - umm, Jimmy G, Goodwin, umm....). 

And the article is basically correct, although these non-stats based projections always create far too spread in expected records; you’d do better to project every single team at  somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6 than throwing out 4-12s for teams like the Bills. Least talented roster? I dunno. What’s our competition? It ain’t the Browns, who clearly have more talent. Redskins? Colts? Not if Luck is actually back, plus there’s a good youth infusion there. Dolphins? I think they’re in far worse shape than the Bills, but overall its not a ridiculous assertion. 

[Domdab99]

This guy is click-bait trash

[26CornerBlitz]

2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

This guy is click-bait trash

 

  He'd be a genius if he projected a great season by the Bills of course.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

It certainly looks like this is an accurate assessment based on the last two games.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It certainly looks like this is an accurate assessment based on the last two games.

Yup. Benoit is a worthy successor to King. Very good football writer.

[Like A Mofo]

On 8/22/2018 at 11:12 AM, Heitz said:

 

 

Really?  Reeeeally!?

 

 

Yes, really