RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[Sky Diver]

16 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

 

 

Great film study video of Allen

 

Thanks. I see a lot more good than bad.

 

Kelly's TD/Int was 237/175. I recall that he made a lot of horrible throws. 

[jrober38]

10 hours ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Wrong on Wentz. Wrong on Prescott.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/qbase-2016

 

At least it was slightly positive. 

 

Guys with negative ratings never work out in the NFL. 

9 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Why watch the movie when you know the ending.. and you hate it ? I'd never tell another fan to go watch another team, or question their fandom. I'm just always curious why anyone would be entertained by anything that they have no good outlook for actually being entertaining. I won't watch Patriots games because of this. I feel I already know the ending and I won't like it. It's not entertaining, so I don't do it. There has to be some hope for positive outcomes, otherwise why bother? It's a sort of masochism .

 

Entertainment and winning games aren't necessarily the same thing. 

[Sky Diver]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

At least it was slightly positive. 

 

Guys with negative ratings never work out in the NFL. 

 

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. I'll believe my eyes. Allen has the potential to be great. Will it be realized. We'll see.There are negatives to every player coming out of the draft and there is no guarantee of success or failure, only probabilities based on limited metrics.

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. I'll believe my eyes. Allen has the potential to be great. Will it be realized. We'll see.There are negatives to every player coming out of the draft and there is no guarantee of success or failure, only probabilities based on limited metrics.

 

I hope you're right. 

 

I'm just not holding my breath. I hope he gets enough time to sit on the bench and learn how to play the position. The longer he sits the more beneficial I think it will be for his development. 

[Sky Diver]

How did QBASE rate these guys?

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/737668-the-opposite-of-busts-the-top-5-quarterbacks-the-nfl-didnt-see-coming

 

Brady should be on the list too, and many others. Dave Krieg went to Milton College, and he had something like a 17 yr NFL career.

 

If QBASE was 100% effective, why haven't teams eliminated their scouting departments and film study? It's interesting, but it's not the end all and be all.

 

[elroy16]

Am I the only one that missed this on draft night?

 

 

 

[BruceVilanch]

19 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. I'll believe my eyes. Allen has the potential to be great. Will it be realized. We'll see.There are negatives to every player coming out of the draft and there is no guarantee of success or failure, only probabilities based on limited metrics.

I believe my eyes as well, some of the throws he made are incredible, you can only make them with his type of arm talent. And he also makes some head scratching throws. Time will tell, but I like that we took a gamble on a guy with generational arm talent and a insanely quick release. And you are spot on, every one of these QB's had negatives, but none of them have the ceiling that Allen does. Go bills.

[eball]

19 minutes ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

 

 

Great film study video of Allen

 

It's an odd review.  The author says "one read offense" is part of "the bad" but all examples showed Allen making the 1st read and zipping the ball on time and with accuracy.  He also claims "unsteady under pressure" is part of "the bad" but for which QBs is it not?  The first part of the "study" shows Allen making play after play out of the pocket, presumably after avoiding pressure.

 

It's clear that Allen believes his arm can overcome just about anything.  Gunslinger for sure.  I can recall a number of great QBs with this mentality (Elway, Kelly, Favre).  He'll need to be coached as to when taking those chances is a "good" risk vs. a bad one.

 

What I didn't see in that video were any glaring examples of inaccuracy.

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

How did QBASE rate these guys?

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/737668-the-opposite-of-busts-the-top-5-quarterbacks-the-nfl-didnt-see-coming

 

Brady should be on the list too, and many others. Dave Krieg went to Milton College, and he had something like a 17 yr NFL career.

 

If QBASE was 100% effective, why haven't teams eliminated their scouting departments and film study? It's interesting, but it's not the end all and be all.

 

Because the nfl is the most conservative, slowest adapting league in pro sports!  Remember when Miami started the wildcat and then everyone started doing it.  

[Sky Diver]

8 minutes ago, Jeetz1231 said:

I believe my eyes as well, some of the throws he made are incredible, you can only make them with his type of arm talent. And he also makes some head scratching throws. Time will tell, but I like that we took a gamble on a guy with generational arm talent and a insanely quick release. And you are spot on, every one of these QB's had negatives, but none of them have the ceiling that Allen does. Go bills.

 

Kelly had a lot of head scratching throws and he had a relatively poor TD/Int ratio. He made a lot of plays though.

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Because the nfl is the most conservative, slowest adapting league in pro sports!  Remember when Miami started the wildcat and then everyone started doing it.  

 

You can put metrics around anything and draw conclusions. Whether they are the right metrics and whether they tell the whole story is an entirely different matter.

 

Maybe AI will take over scouting one day. I suppose it's possible, but I don't think we are quite there yet.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Sky Diver

[mannc]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Comparing each QB with the challenges faced in their respective circumstances is fair even if you happen not to get it from an evaluation perspective. 

 

Still upset that Beane didn’t trade our entire draft (and half of next year’s), like you said he HAD to do?

[26CornerBlitz]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

Still upset that Beane didn’t trade our entire draft (and half of next year’s), like you said he HAD to do?

 

I never said anything remotely close to that and he did give up two 2nd round picks in the trade up to secure Allen.  WTH does your response have to do with a comparison between Mayfield and Allen?  

Edited May 1, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[Straight Hucklebuck]

55 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

It means he has maybe a 1:10 chance of becoming a successful NFL QB. 

 

Guys like him don't work out in the NFL. 

 

The interesting nugget for me is what the decision making logic was driving the new regime (Beane and McDermott) to spend #12, #53, #56 and Cordy Glenn on Josh Allen while trading away a similar developmental guy in Cardale Jones? 

 

Beane wasn’t here when McDermott passed on Mahomes and Watson, but if they wanted the big arm, why didn’t they draft Mahomes last season? How do you watch Watson’s career and conclude he’s not worth one first round pick, but Allen is worth trading up for? 

 

What reason(s) past he’s tall and has a big arm are there? Because through two interviews they sound like Whaley speaking about Manuel. Presence and really tall, nothing about accurate passing and scoring points. 

[mannc]

10 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I never said anything remotely close to that and he did give up two 2nd round picks in the trade up to secure Allen.  WTH does your response have to do with a comparison between Mayfield and Allen?  

The “comparison” between Mayfield and Allen was absurd.  Mayfield faced adversity because he lost a couple WRs?  Give me a break.  How many 4 and 5 star guys do you think they had in the stable, ready to step in?  To compare that to Allen’s situation at Wyoming is laughable.

 

And yes, you were one of the crowd who were banging the drum all offseason for Beane to do “whatever it takes” to move up to 2.

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

 

Great film study video of Allen

 

So let me get this right.. they show good that he scans the field

then after that bad that its one read offense?

and then in that one read offense he is zipping ball out of there within 3 seconds? I don't get it.

 

So many good throws out of pocket, running for his life... that's something amazing in itself.

 

One other thing I noticed.. He realizes when he needs to loop that ball in air or when to throw a bullet.. This was the problem JP had and EJ had.

and the fact that he has shown improvement in his workouts speaks dividends!

 

He was not my guy when he was drafted but now we have Allen.. Allen is a Buffalo Bill and I am backing him because of that.

this isn't called blind faith this is called backing what is on the field. IF you don't like the product when he plays regular season

football then great.. till then I hope for the best and root for the team.

Anyhow.. The kid has talent and there is no way to deny this. Will it translate to the NFL level? no one really knows for sure

but I will be rooting for him.

[Dr. Who]

I see we've moved from mass hysteria because Rosen wasn't chosen to grudging acceptance and growing enthusiasm to the second wave of entrenched pessimism.  The hardliners aren't going to budge unless Allen's play forces them to.  No worries and no surprises on who is in that camp.  Have fun griping fellas.  Oh, the view that Allen is Cardale Jones, that's just so cute.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

14 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

The interesting nugget for me is what the decision making logic was driving the new regime (Beane and McDermott) to spend #12, #53, #56 and Cordy Glenn on Josh Allen while trading away a similar developmental guy in Cardale Jones? 

 

Beane wasn’t here when McDermott passed on Mahomes and Watson, but if they wanted the big arm, why didn’t they draft Mahomes last season? How do you watch Watson’s career and conclude he’s not worth one first round pick, but Allen is worth trading up for? 

 

What reason(s) past he’s tall and has a big arm are there? Because through two interviews they sound like Whaley speaking about Manuel. Presence and really tall, nothing about accurate passing and scoring points. 

 

Cardale played in the Urban Meyer Spread-Option offense.  Likely didn't call a play in the huddle, never set a protection, never took a snap under center.  He only threw the ball 269 times in college before he went professional.  He didn't come off as a particularly bright guy, or x's and o's guy. 

 

His accuracy woes were alarmingly bad, and he had a national championship caliber team with playmakers like Zeke elliot and Michael thomas.  He mustered 8 TDs.

 

That guy was a project in every sense of the word.  They preferred Peterman because I think they were more confident he could develop into a capable backup QB. 

10 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

 

So let me get this right.. they show good that he scans the field

then after that bad that its one read offense?

and then in that one read offense he is zipping ball out of there within 3 seconds? I don't get it.

 

So many good throws out of pocket, running for his life... that's something amazing in itself.

 

One other thing I noticed.. He realizes when he needs to loop that ball in air or when to throw a bullet.. This was the problem JP had and EJ had.

and the fact that he has shown improvement in his workouts speaks dividends!

 

He was not my guy when he was drafted but now we have Allen.. Allen is a Buffalo Bill and I am backing him because of that.

this isn't called blind faith this is called backing what is on the field. IF you don't like the product when he plays regular season

football then great.. till then I hope for the best and root for the team.

Anyhow.. The kid has talent and there is no way to deny this. Will it translate to the NFL level? no one really knows for sure

but I will be rooting for him.

 

Exactly - if he sucks.  I will be honest and say he sucks.  If he's great - I'll root like hell for the guy.  

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I see we've moved from mass hysteria because Rosen wasn't chosen to grudging acceptance and growing enthusiasm to the second wave of entrenched pessimism.  The hardliners aren't going to budge unless Allen's play forces them to.  No worries and no surprises on who is in that camp.  Have fun griping fellas.  Oh, the view that Allen is Cardale Jones, that's just so cute.

 

My biggest Jones gripe was how many OSU games he went to in 2016.  I feel like he was there every week.  I know you're the 3rd QB and stuff... but one would think you'd care enough to TRY and show that you should be playing.

[26CornerBlitz]

19 minutes ago, mannc said:

The “comparison” between Mayfield and Allen was absurd.  Mayfield faced adversity because he lost a couple WRs?  Give me a break.  How many 4 and 5 star guys do you think they had in the stable, ready to step in?  To compare that to Allen’s situation at Wyoming is laughable.

 

And yes, you were one of the crowd who were banging the drum all offseason for Beane to do “whatever it takes” to move up to 2.

 

They both of course were going to be compared in every way as QBs in the 2018 draft class so what are you even saying.  Silly statement!

 

That's exactly what you do if you believe in a QB prospect just as the Eagles and Rams did.  

[mannc]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

At least it was slightly positive. 

 

Guys with negative ratings never work out in the NFL. 

 

 

Your mistake is failing to recognize that great QBs are often outliers.  Before Brady, no sixth rounder had done what he’s done; before Kurt Warner, no one had gone from Arena League to MVP; no one with Favre’s track record succeeded before he did it, etc...Allen was a big-time NFL prospect because of projections of what he can become.  There aren’t a lot of comparables, but that doesn’t mean he won’t succeed.  His numbers at Wyoming don’t tell us much at all.

[starrymessenger]

Beane has at least been consistent and true to his philosophy in he draft. He puts a lot of emphasis on pure, unadulterated physical talent. You see that as much in his choice of Edmunds as you do in the Allen pick. Edmunds too is a risky pick with stratospheric upside. Swing for the fences.

Having said that it's clear to me that nothing Beane has done is reckless. To those who say Allen is just another in a long and depressing sequence of strong arm boneheads with bad fundamentals lacking the special instincts needed to play the position I say forget the stat sheet and go back and check out the tape. Much of the negative comments are just analytically lazy.

Hes a rough cut diamond in need of polishing - and lots of it. But he has clearly and not infrequently demonstrated the ability to do all the things you ideally want him to do exactly the way you want him to do it. And when he does the results are what you expect to see given his physical skillset. That's what separates him from the losers he is too often and unfairly lumped together with. Without that evidence Beane would never have drafted him. The Bills did not just fall in love with a big arm. They have correctly seen a lot more to like than just that. Beane has been bold but at the same time careful in analyzing the risk/reward profile.

i was for Rosen myself. I think he was the best prospect in this year's class all things considered. But Allen Has a higher ceiling as far as upside projections are concerned. If Beane and the Bills are rewarded for the aggressive decision they have taken they are going to have one heck of a QB.

Edited May 1, 2018 by starrymessenger