RD1, Pick 7: Josh Allen QB - Wyoming

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

My head is stuck at what I said originally. 

 

What is the logic from Beane and McDermott coveting Allen past he’s tall and has a big arm? 

 

I’ve listened to two interviews from Beane now. What did you like about Allen? He’s big, tall, physical, has a big arm to play in Buffalo conditions.

 

In the second interview he mentioned Cam Newton by name. Beane didn’t talk about reading a defense until specifically asked to define Allen’s college responsibilities. 

 

My opinion in their decision making remains unchanged by new interviews. Josh Allen is here because he’s tall and has a big arm, and throwing the football with accuracy from the pocket with anticipation is not a discerning trait.

 

My problem is - this is why Russel Wilson is not a Bill. Nix loved everything about him except he wished he was a few inches taller. Whaley loved Manuel because of his presence. Cardale Jones was a massive QB with the same “raw talent”. 

 

We’ve seen this type of draft pick before from Buffalo, for the same reasons as our GM is giving now. This time we traded #12, #53, #56 and Cordy Glenn to do it, while passing on Mahomes, Watson and Rosen along the way. 

 

Hope all the data projects the wrong outcome and Allen is the anomaly. 

 

Mahomes is the same exact type of prospect as Allen but Allen is a better athlete , bigger and has a stronger arm 

 

they are both developmental prospects who need to clean up their game.Mahomes played  in the most gimmicky offense ever created and had horrible footwork and never played under center 

 

His career 63% completion is inflated do to the air raid 

 

Allen played in a pro style offense, played under center close to 50% , ran for his life behind a porous oline and played in a pro style offense

 

His stats easily correlate to 63-64% in an air raid. 

 

Seeing as 1 extra completion a game brings him over 60%. Just 1 

 

Lance zeirlin the Head of Making NFL scouting reports watched every play from both and gave Allen a slightly higher grade

 

If you like Mahomes there is no reason not to like Allen

[Agua]

Good pick for you guys.  I hope he's JP Losman, but my greatest fear is he's Rothlesberger.  Probably just paranoid though.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Agua

[KellyToTasker]

13 hours ago, Putin said:

I'm aware of that   been watching the NFL since the early 80's ! 

So what are you saying that 35 years ago competition % / accuracy was not as important when evaluating a potential first round pick ? Unless 35 years ago 56% = 64% today?  

 

Then you should know that defenses are restricted in their style of play and what they can and cannot do. All I'm "saying" is that passing stats from 1983 are different in comparison to today.  That's it.  

[nbbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Mahomes is the same exact type of prospect as Allen but Allen is a better athlete , bigger and has a stronger arm 

 

they are both developmental prospects who need to clean up their game.Mahomes played  in the most gimmicky offense ever created and had horrible footwork and never played under center 

 

His career 63% completion is inflated do to the air raid 

 

Allen played in a pro style offense, played under center close to 50% , ran for his life behind a porous oline and played in a pro style offense

 

His stats easily correlate to 63-64% in an air raid. 

 

Seeing as 1 extra completion a game brings him over 60%. Just 1 

 

Lance zeirlin the Head of Making NFL scouting reports watched every play from both and gave Allen a slightly higher grade

 

If you like Mahomes there is no reason not to like Allen

 

Any easy way to confirm this is look at other QB's completion % in that offense. Nic Shimonek, this years QB in that offense, had a 66.5% completion %. That is one thing that people don't seem to understand, so much of completion % is the offense you run. Allen may very well struggle with completion % in the NFL, but it is erroneous to think a guy like Mahomes won't because he had a high completion % in college.

[Buffalo716]

1 minute ago, nbbillsfan said:

 

Any easy way to confirm this is look at other QB's completion % in that offense. Nic Shimonek, this years QB in that offense, had a 66.5% completion %. That is one thing that people don't seem to understand, so much of completion % is the offense you run. Allen may very well struggle with completion % in the NFL, but it is erroneous to think a guy like Mahomes won't because he had a high completion % in college.

 

100% agree

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kliff-kingsbury-1.html

 

look at the completion % of Kliff Kingsbury who was one of the first air raid QBs 15 years ago

 

He is also the coach at Tech and an Air Raid Guru. They are learning from the master

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

16 minutes ago, nbbillsfan said:

 

Any easy way to confirm this is look at other QB's completion % in that offense. Nic Shimonek, this years QB in that offense, had a 66.5% completion %. That is one thing that people don't seem to understand, so much of completion % is the offense you run. Allen may very well struggle with completion % in the NFL, but it is erroneous to think a guy like Mahomes won't because he had a high completion % in college.

 

12 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

100% agree

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kliff-kingsbury-1.html

 

look at the completion % of Kliff Kingsbury who was one of the first air raid QBs 15 years ago

 

He is also the coach at Tech and an Air Raid Guru. They are learning from the master

 

Could look at EJ's career 67% and say the same thing

[Tyrod's friend]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

It's an odd review.  The author says "one read offense" is part of "the bad" but all examples showed Allen making the 1st read and zipping the ball on time and with accuracy.  He also claims "unsteady under pressure" is part of "the bad" but for which QBs is it not?  The first part of the "study" shows Allen making play after play out of the pocket, presumably after avoiding pressure.

 

It's clear that Allen believes his arm can overcome just about anything.  Gunslinger for sure.  I can recall a number of great QBs with this mentality (Elway, Kelly, Favre).  He'll need to be coached as to when taking those chances is a "good" risk vs. a bad one.

 

What I didn't see in that video were any glaring examples of inaccuracy.

A number of gunslingers have been successful, and those are the ones that stick with you. We tend to forget the failures even when they've existed in our recent memory. I give you a certain Harvard QB, who might have lacked Allen's ability but certainly believed in his gunslinger/hero persona. He'd get that entire body of his corkscrewed up and try to cash a check his savings couldn't meet. 

Here is why I bring Ryan up: what I see a lot of are video of Josh Allen falling backward and tossing the ball on the run 50 yards downfield, and it seems frequently across his body. Eye-opening sh!t.  They are held up as a reason to cheer for his possibilities. 

I think any DC would be licking their chops at a QB that tries to make this play consistently. It is a play that screams turnover or strip/sack and even as he completes a TD pass as he falls, I find myself asking how he got into that situation in the first place. Don't tell me that his offense didn't regularly include a safety valve - I mean, use some common sense. All I've seen has been 2017 tape but this tape is all 2016 and it tells me a good deal about his makeup and his go-to solutions when pressured. And the Senior Bowl tapes, where blitz packages are not allowed, don't help.

Yes, I get it; Josh Allen can make that play and he's not Fitzpatrick that way. Will he have it in him to avoid that play to begin with? Let's hope the game planning and the coaching helps - but it never seemed to change Ryan Fitzpatrick's way of approaching the game. (Note: all through this, I'm not talking about scrambling but rather the gunslinger mindset.)

Edited May 1, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[Roundybout]

3 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

The interesting nugget for me is what the decision making logic was driving the new regime (Beane and McDermott) to spend #12, #53, #56 and Cordy Glenn on Josh Allen while trading away a similar developmental guy in Cardale Jones? 

 

Beane wasn’t here when McDermott passed on Mahomes and Watson, but if they wanted the big arm, why didn’t they draft Mahomes last season? How do you watch Watson’s career and conclude he’s not worth one first round pick, but Allen is worth trading up for? 

 

What reason(s) past he’s tall and has a big arm are there? Because through two interviews they sound like Whaley speaking about Manuel. Presence and really tall, nothing about accurate passing and scoring points. 

 

Because Cardale started what, one season? He was benched for Christsake. Spread offense, no reads, tons of talent on the OSU team. Allen has made some damn nice throws that Cardale could never. 

[Carter]

Interesting stat. 

Allens college completion, 56.2%

Some comparable college completion % 

 

D. Marino- 57.6%

J. Kelly- 55.6%

J. Namath- 54.4%

B. Favre- 52.5%

J. Montana- 52%

 

Food for Thought....

 

 

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

4 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

My head is stuck at what I said originally. 

 

What is the logic from Beane and McDermott coveting Allen past he’s tall and has a big arm? His ability to be coached. Please watch what he did in the senior bowl with competent wide receivers and just a week's worth of coaching. Allen has also had to work for everything he has achieved. Allen had zero NFL caliber prospects on his team. I do not believe any other Wyoming players from the 2017 team are UDFA or training camp invites. Please correct me if wrong. 

 

I’ve listened to two interviews from Beane now. What did you like about Allen? He’s big, tall, physical, has a big arm to play in Buffalo conditions. I am not listening to what Beane has to say about Allen. Honestly, i am from the school that a GM is the last person to listen to when it comes to someone they drafted. What do you think they are going to say about the player? Listen to Allen himself, before he was drafted. Listen to Allen's coaches before he was drafted. Listen to his story about where he came from and what he overcame. I will take a guy who has had to learn, work hard and adapt to be successful vs the guy who has been given the inside track to it. Yes that was a shot at Rosen. 

 

In the second interview he mentioned Cam Newton by name. Beane didn’t talk about reading a defense until specifically asked to define Allen’s college responsibilities. Not only do i see Allen reading D's from his college film i also see him playing under center and having a good play fake. 

 

My opinion in their decision making remains unchanged by new interviews. Josh Allen is here because he’s tall and has a big arm, and throwing the football with accuracy from the pocket with anticipation is not a discerning trait. From what i have seen by Allen, he can make all the throws and he can place the ball where it needs to be. Allen can read a D. I watched him do it. Look past the competion percentages and what everyone else is telling you. please watch the tape on him. 

 

My problem is - this is why Russel Wilson is not a Bill. Nix loved everything about him except he wished he was a few inches taller. Whaley loved Manuel because of his presence. Cardale Jones was a massive QB with the same “raw talent”. Wilson was a miss. Chan probably could of had good results with him. Heck Gailey made Reggie Ball look good while at Tech. Jones i am not really sure about. Sounds like he is not panning out anywhere. These moves were made before Beane/McDermott were running things. 

 

We’ve seen this type of draft pick before from Buffalo, for the same reasons as our GM is giving now. This time we traded #12, #53, #56 and Cordy Glenn to do it, while passing on Mahomes, Watson and Rosen along the way. You and I have the same amount of Touchdowns as Mahomes and Rosen. As for Watson i need to see a bigger body of work before i can say he is a franchise guy, all indications point to Watson being very good. Anyone who can beat Saban a second time when Saban has had two weeks to prepare is good. This would be a miss by Whaley. I also think McDermott knew he needed a year to get the team where he wanted it and knew this years class was good. 

 

Hope all the data projects the wrong outcome and Allen is the anomaly. I think it will. I really think this kid is special. I know Allen is not going to give up and he has the talent to get there. Allen also has the smarts. really the data and eye test show Allen will be great. 

 

 

[GG]

7 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

That was me. Brian from Arcade. Almost missed the call because I was making the kids lunches for school. 

 

Like Murph, Sal is in constant defend mode. 

 

NFL Coaches and GMs constantly tell their fans that “the tape” is the centerpiece of their evaluations, and that the Combine is useful mainly for the interviews/medical, not the measures. Josh Allen at #7 is a prime example of why that’s not always the case. Can’t be. No way you watched that career and concluded a Mountain West honorable mention was worth #12, #53, #56 and Cordy Glenn, but Deshaun Watson wasn’t worth #10 last year other than 6’5” and 82-yards worth of arm strength. 

 

Simply put, Beane and McDermott can’t get their head out of Carolina. They wanted their own big, strong armed QB that reminded them of Cam. They saw a 6’5” guy with a rocket and made their game tape/evaluation fit that decision. Listen to Beane speak about Allen. Sounds awfully similar to Nix/Whaley at the 2013 season ticket holders box club speaking about Manuel’s size and room presence and never once mentioning reading a defense or throwing accurately. 

 

How is Allen a better prospect than Cardale Jones? He’s not. Cardale had more college success, was the same size, had the same arm, was the same age coming out, was just as raw. But Whaley picked him and we can’t have that (ego). 

 

It it bothers me to hear 35/40-Year video vet Cosell talk about pocket presence & accuracy, and our GM is talking about snowy weather and running the ball. 

 

Once again the Bills are going for the Rudy story. Hoping beyond hope that they outsmarted the league by swimming away from logic and selecting the diamond in the rough. Sal is already talking about obtaining WRs with large “catch radius” to help inaccurate Allen (literally heard all of these ideas about Manuel - the footwork, picking brain of a vet, working with a QB guru, getting elite talent around him). 

 

Does our Coach really mean to change our offense to an aggressive throw deep style? You’re doing that with Kelvin Benjamin as your #1 and Zay Jones as your #2? 

 

After all it’s still snowy, cold Buffalo and we need to pound the ball. 

 

 

 

This is a very lazy take that does not account for the decision makers exposure to the prospects.   It's beyond laughable to think that Cardale is a better prospect than Allen and basing that judgement because they're the same size.   Cardale was in the Bills' locker room for 1.25 seasons, and Beane probably did a hell of a lot of scouting on him, if you also want to apply the lazy parallel to Cam.  They got rid of Cardale at the first possible moment, because they recognize that you need more than physical traits to succeed as a QB.

[Sky Diver]

21 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

A number of gunslingers have been successful, and those are the ones that stick with you. We tend to forget the failures even when they've existed in our recent memory. I give you a certain Harvard QB, who might have lacked Allen's ability but certainly believed in his gunslinger/hero persona. He'd get that entire body of his corkscrewed up and try to cash a check his savings couldn't meet. 

Here is why I bring Ryan up: what I see a lot of are video of Josh Allen falling backward and tossing the ball on the run 50 yards downfield, and it seems frequently across his body. Eye-opening sh!t.  They are held up as a reason to cheer for his possibilities. 

I think any DC would be licking their chops at a QB that tries to make this play consistently. It is a play that screams turnover or strip/sack and even as he completes a TD pass as he falls, I find myself asking how he got into that situation in the first place. Don't tell me that his offense didn't regularly include a safety valve - I mean, use some common sense. All I've seen has been 2017 tape but this tape is all 2016 and it tells me a good deal about his makeup and his go-to solutions when pressured. And the Senior Bowl tapes, where blitz packages are not allowed, don't help.

Yes, I get it; Josh Allen can make that play and he's not Fitzpatrick that way. Will he have it in him to avoid that play to begin with? Let's hope the game planning and the coaching helps - but it never seemed to change Ryan Fitzpatrick's way of approaching the game. (Note: all through this, I'm not talking about scrambling but rather the gunslinger mindset.)

 

His offensive line was horrific and he still made plays.

 

[Tyrod's friend]

1 minute ago, Sky Diver said:

 

His offensive line was horrific and he still made plays.

 

 

This can't be argued - and it what he wears proudly (and should).  He likes to say his team won 8 games twice. 

Why did he "make plays"? I haven't looked into it, but I'm willing to guess an in-depth analysis would show that his tape is devoid of dump off passes to safety valve outlets. 

Please, don't use the answer "downfield offense". I have a hard time believing the HC that developed Carson Wentz put Josh Allen into an offense where all outlets were constantly 20 yards downfield.

It's part of the game - knowing when to fold your cards and take a 5 yard sack instead of making it worse, to make that pass for 2 yards, to just throwing the ball out of bounds. I'd say it's roughly 5-7% of QBs dropbacks involve those decisions. With our offensive line, maybe more. If he tries to be a hero in the NFL, he's going to make you scream in pain.

I don't care how great your arm is, if you consistently try to throw the ball across your body 50 yards as you fall backward, your team will lead the league in turnovers and your defense will approach giving up 450 points.

Control him, and you have a shot because the defense will have to honor that rocket.  

[Sky Diver]

Allen's TD/Int ratio was 44/21. Jim Kelly's was 237/175. If you throw the ball downfield, there will be interceptions. If you don't want turnovers (or big plays), Tyrod is your man. I think we have all concluded that it was time to move on from Tyrod,

 

As good as Kelly was, he made a lot of head scratching, ill-advised throws, but he made a lot of plays too.

[Tyrod's friend]

3 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

Allen's TD/Int ratio was 44/21. Jim Kelly's was 237/175. If you throw the ball downfield, there will be interceptions. If you don't want turnovers (or big plays), Tyrod is your man. I think we have all concluded that it was time to move on from Tyrod,

 

As good as Kelly was, he made a lot of head scratching, ill-advised throws, but he made a lot of plays too.

 

Sammy Watkins says hello. [edit] and if you want to use Jim Kelly, look at the least at today's QB.

Today better QBs get a TD/INT ratio close to 3:1. In some cases better. 2:1 doesn't get it done in today's world and I'm telling you, if Allen tries that backyard bullsh!t in the NFL he's going to be a failure. Not even a question in my mind and it shouldn't be in yours.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Tyrod's friend

[eball]

52 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

A number of gunslingers have been successful, and those are the ones that stick with you. We tend to forget the failures even when they've existed in our recent memory. I give you a certain Harvard QB, who might have lacked Allen's ability but certainly believed in his gunslinger/hero persona. He'd get that entire body of his corkscrewed up and try to cash a check his savings couldn't meet. 

Here is why I bring Ryan up: what I see a lot of are video of Josh Allen falling backward and tossing the ball on the run 50 yards downfield, and it seems frequently across his body. Eye-opening sh!t.  They are held up as a reason to cheer for his possibilities. 

I think any DC would be licking their chops at a QB that tries to make this play consistently. It is a play that screams turnover or strip/sack and even as he completes a TD pass as he falls, I find myself asking how he got into that situation in the first place. Don't tell me that his offense didn't regularly include a safety valve - I mean, use some common sense. All I've seen has been 2017 tape but this tape is all 2016 and it tells me a good deal about his makeup and his go-to solutions when pressured. And the Senior Bowl tapes, where blitz packages are not allowed, don't help.

Yes, I get it; Josh Allen can make that play and he's not Fitzpatrick that way. Will he have it in him to avoid that play to begin with? Let's hope the game planning and the coaching helps - but it never seemed to change Ryan Fitzpatrick's way of approaching the game. (Note: all through this, I'm not talking about scrambling but rather the gunslinger mindset.)

 

I think you're misinterpreting my comments.  Gunslinger mentality to me means confidence, not recklessness -- as in, if you give me an inch I'm going to beat you.  Fitzy's confidence is misplaced -- he doesn't have the arm to back it up.  He's reckless.  The other veteran QBs I mentioned had the goods, and they only "heaved it up" when there were no other options.  Of course the off-balance 50 yard toss isn't something you want Allen doing often; that's where coaching comes in.  But I do love the fact that we have a QB who won't be afraid to fit it in tight windows.  God knows we're all tired of "play it safe" Tyrod.  I'll trade a few picks for a mostly productive passing game.

Edited May 1, 2018 by eball

[Sky Diver]

24 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

Sammy Watkins says hello. [edit] and if you want to use Jim Kelly, look at the least at today's QB.

Today better QBs get a TD/INT ratio close to 3:1. In some cases better. 2:1 doesn't get it done in today's world and I'm telling you, if Allen tries that backyard bullsh!t in the NFL he's going to be a failure. Not even a question in my mind and it shouldn't be in yours.

 

Allen played the hand he was dealt. On most pass plays he was running for his life. Hopefully we can solidify the offensive line and he has some clean pockets to throw from. If not, he can scramble and is pretty accurate throwing on the run. I am sure the coach game planned around the team's capabilities and their opponents.. When they ran 1 read, quick hitting passes Allen was pretty effective. He'll learn what he can get away with in the NFL and what he can't.

Roethlisberger's TD/Int ratio is 1.89. Allen's is 2.10. Rosen's is 2.27. Mayfield's is 5.67 at Oklahoma. Darnold's in 2.59.

 

In 2017, Darnold had 11 fumbles, Rosen had 8 and Allen had 5.

Edited May 1, 2018 by Sky Diver

[BillsFan2313]

28 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

This can't be argued - and it what he wears proudly (and should).  He likes to say his team won 8 games twice. 

Why did he "make plays"? I haven't looked into it, but I'm willing to guess an in-depth analysis would show that his tape is devoid of dump off passes to safety valve outlets. 

Please, don't use the answer "downfield offense". I have a hard time believing the HC that developed Carson Wentz put Josh Allen into an offense where all outlets were constantly 20 yards downfield.

It's part of the game - knowing when to fold your cards and take a 5 yard sack instead of making it worse, to make that pass for 2 yards, to just throwing the ball out of bounds. I'd say it's roughly 5-7% of QBs dropbacks involve those decisions. With our offensive line, maybe more. If he tries to be a hero in the NFL, he's going to make you scream in pain.

I don't care how great your arm is, if you consistently try to throw the ball across your body 50 yards as you fall backward, your team will lead the league in turnovers and your defense will approach giving up 450 points.

Control him, and you have a shot because the defense will have to honor that rocket.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUfvnkiwmds

 

I like watching his senior bowl highlights, because I feel like this is a game where he had equal talent around him. He shows off an array of skills. Escapbility, stepping up in the pocket, power throws, fines throws. Very impressive IMO

[Sky Diver]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUfvnkiwmds

 

I like watching his senior bowl highlights, because I feel like this is a game where he had equal talent around him. He shows off an array of skills. Escapbility, stepping up in the pocket, power throws, fines throws. Very impressive IMO

 

Allen regularly played under center at Wyoming. That's a plus.

[ddaryl]

10 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Allen played the hand he was dealt. On most pass plays he was running for his life. Hopefully we can solidify the offensive line and he has some clean pockets to throw from. If not, he can scramble and is pretty accurate throwing on the run. I am sure the coach game planned around the team's capabilities and their opponents.. When they ran 1 read, quick hitting passes Allen was pretty effective. He'll learn what he can get away with in the NFL and what he can't.

Roethlisberger's TD/Int ratio is 1.89. Allen's is 2.10. Rosen's is 2.27.

 

 

He was not running for his life on most plays. Watched every single pass this guy has thrown. He will not get more time in the NFL then what he had in college. So he needs ot improve his decision making which comes with framiliarity to the offense the Bills design for him.

 

 He throws well on roll outs, so I'm sure there will be plenty of those ealry on. He throws well when given time to. But under pressure he starts to force stuff. 

 

Allen can develop but that is key he needs to develop.

 

49 minutes ago, Carter said:

Interesting stat. 

Allens college completion, 56.2%

Some comparable college completion % 

 

D. Marino- 57.6%

J. Kelly- 55.6%

J. Namath- 54.4%

B. Favre- 52.5%

J. Montana- 52%

 

Food for Thought....

 

 

 

 

 

No food at all. Very different era of football. Does not coorelate into todays game. Back then if you threw for 3000yds 25TDs every season you were considered a cadidate for the HOF. Today you better average 4K yards 30 TDs to be a considered a HOF worthy QB

11 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUfvnkiwmds

 

I like watching his senior bowl highlights, because I feel like this is a game where he had equal talent around him. He shows off an array of skills. Escapbility, stepping up in the pocket, power throws, fines throws. Very impressive IMO

 

However playing Devils advocate so did EJ. But Overall I do agree overall I did like what Allen was able ot do in the senior bowl