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Is there a precedent for developing a low-percentage QB?

finn

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finn Veteran

finn

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Troy Aikman pointed out that very few quarterbacks who were inaccurate in college have made it in the NFL. That got me thinking: are there ANY quarterbacks with Allen's low percentage (in a weak conference, too) who have made it? I'm genuinely curious. 

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jrober38 Veteran

jrober38

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Posted (edited)

No.

 

Matt Stafford is the only guy with a sub 58% career completion percentage who has gone on to be a franchise QB in the NFL over the past 20 years. 

 

He also completed 61% of his throws his final year at Georgia. 

Edited by jrober38
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alluro Probation

alluro

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The classic example is hall of famer Brett Favre who had a completion percentage of 52.4% coming out of Southern Mississippi. He and Stafford should be viewed as anomalies, however. The vast majority of inaccurate passers DO NOT overcome this weakness. 

 

I've never been more disappointed in a Bills draft in my life. SMH

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SouthNYfan Veteran

SouthNYfan

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Just now, jrober38 said:

 

No he doesn't. LOL

 

Ryan's career at BC was 59.9%. 

 

Stafford is the only guy in 20 years. 

 

Oops.

I was going with the general consensus that 60% if the magic#.

You changed it to 58% to fit your narrative.

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jrober38 Veteran

jrober38

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1 minute ago, alluro said:

The classic example is hall of famer Brett Favre who had a completion percentage of 52.4% coming out of Southern Mississippi. He and Stafford should be viewed as anomalies, however. The vast majority of inaccurate passers DO NOT overcome this weakness. 

 

I've never been more disappointed in a Bills draft in my life. SMH

 

Agreed. 

 

Such a horrible pick. I'm having flash backs to 2013.

 

All the reasons we picked Josh Allen are the same as why we picked EJ Manuel. 

 

All we're hearing about is the size, mobility, presence and arm strength. 

Just now, SouthNYfan said:

 

Oops.

I was going with the general consensus that 60% if the magic#.

You changed it to 58% to fit your narrative.

 

The point remains. 

 

In 20 years, 1 QB with a career completion percentage below 58% has made it as a franchise QB in the NFL.

 

The odds of Allen working out are slim to none (which is what every advanced analytic says about him). 

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Irv Veteran

Irv

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Everyone needs to chill out.  Jim Kelly's college stats!

 

Year Team Games Passing
G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate
1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7
1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7
1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2
1982 Miami   7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4
Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4
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Rosen-not-Chosen Practice Squad

Rosen-not-Chosen

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13 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

No.

 

Matt Stafford is the only guy with a sub 58% career completion percentage who has gone on to be a franchise QB in the NFL over the past 20 years. 

 

He also completed 61% of his throws his final year at Georgia. 

 

And what has he won in the NFL?

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SouthNYfan Veteran

SouthNYfan

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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Agreed. 

 

Such a horrible pick. I'm having flash backs to 2013.

 

All the reasons we picked Josh Allen are the same as why we picked EJ Manuel. 

 

All we're hearing about is the size, mobility, presence and arm strength. 

 

The point remains. 

 

In 20 years, 1 QB with a career completion percentage below 58% has made it as a franchise QB in the NFL.

 

The odds of Allen working out are slim to none (which is what every advanced analytic says about him). 

 

Allen seemed to have a mechanical issue with his footwork leading to inconsistant throws.

Why is it that we assume Darnold can fix his mechanics but Allen cannot?

 

Again you picked 58% as an arbitrary number.

A few QBs have been around the 60% mark.

Russell Wilson was sub 60% until his absurd senior year comp%

Allen is a Jr coming out

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jrober38 Veteran

jrober38

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1 minute ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Allen seemed to have a mechanical issue with his footwork leading to inconsistant throws.

Why is it that we assume Darnold can fix his mechanics but Allen cannot?

 

Again you picked 58% as an arbitrary number.

A few QBs have been around the 60% mark.

Russell Wilson was sub 60% until his absurd senior year comp%

Allen is a Jr coming out

 

Spin it anyway you want. Josh Allen isn't an accurate passer. 

 

Inaccurate college QBs don't become accurate once they get to the NFL. 

 

Josh Allen completed 56% of his throws against garbage competition. 

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White Linen All Pro

White Linen

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1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Spin it anyway you want. Josh Allen isn't an accurate passer. 

 

Inaccurate college QBs don't become accurate once they get to the NFL. 

 

Josh Allen completed 56% of his throws against garbage competition. 

 

You don't know a damn thing about accuracy because you're a sheep.  Tyrod threw for 62.7% last year - is he accurate?  

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jrober38 Veteran

jrober38

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3 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

ok... do you want him to be good?  or do you want to be right?

 

I want him to be good, but I'm convinced we just flushed 3-4 years down the toilet with this pick. 


There is no precedent for guys like Allen being successful in the NFL. I've watched JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and Allen is just like all of those guys. Being big and strong and able to throw the ball 80 yards isn't enough in the NFL. 

 

Poor accuracy and decision making isn't something that gets corrected once you're playing against the best defenders in the world and the throwing lanes get significantly smaller than the ones he faced in the Mountain West Conference. 

 

Someone was going to get suckered into thinking they could "fix" Allen. I'm really disappointed it was the Bills. 

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ColdFront_USAF Practice Squad

ColdFront_USAF

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One of his most compared-to players is Cam Newton. Look at Cam's pre-draft stuff, it's quite similar. You'll see things like "big body, huge arm, crazy athletic for his size". You'll also see "needs to work on accuracy, reading defenses, making smart decisions with the ball". I for one am entirely shocked that two guys who coached/learned in Carolina and helped take Cam to a Super Bowl decided to draft a guy frequently compared to him. 

 

As for accuracy.. Jordan Palmer said a lot of stuff about it, so I'll just paraphrase rather than parrot him. He said the raw number isn't everything (another shock, I know). The team around him got significantly worse in 2017, as his mostly senior team from 16 all graduated and moved on. Yet, his completion percentage remained the same. It actually shows an improvement when factoring in that he lost a huge amount of his offense. Palmer and Allen both cited footwork issues that resulted in accuracy. That's coachable, to what extent remains to be seen. And the "unable to read a defense" thing, well I'm not sold on that narrative. At the very least, the potential is there, as he has proven to be very smart with the X's and O's. Let's wait and see if he can apply his intelligence to the field. 

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White Linen All Pro

White Linen

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4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I want him to be good, but I'm convinced we just flushed 3-4 years down the toilet with this pick. 


There is no precedent for guys like Allen being successful in the NFL. I've watched JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and Allen is just like all of those guys. Being big and strong and able to throw the ball 80 yards isn't enough in the NFL. 

 

Poor accuracy and decision making isn't something that gets corrected once you're playing against the best defenders in the world and the throwing lanes get significantly smaller than the ones he faced in the Mountain West Conference. 

 

Someone was going to get suckered into thinking they could "fix" Allen. I'm really disappointed it was the Bills. 

 

You don't know crap.  You're a follower.  You have absolutely no clue what goes into a throwing % number or at least don't care enough to learn.  

 

 

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SouthNYfan Veteran

SouthNYfan

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4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I want him to be good, but I'm convinced we just flushed 3-4 years down the toilet with this pick. 


There is no precedent for guys like Allen being successful in the NFL. I've watched JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and Allen is just like all of those guys. Being big and strong and able to throw the ball 80 yards isn't enough in the NFL. 

 

Poor accuracy and decision making isn't something that gets corrected once you're playing against the best defenders in the world and the throwing lanes get significantly smaller than the ones he faced in the Mountain West Conference. 

 

Someone was going to get suckered into thinking they could "fix" Allen. I'm really disappointed it was the Bills. 

 

Poor accuracy and poor decision making agent the same thing.

 

Peterman was over 60% though.

Maybe we should start him.

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billspro Veteran

billspro

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2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I want him to be good, but I'm convinced we just flushed 3-4 years down the toilet with this pick. 


There is no precedent for guys like Allen being successful in the NFL. I've watched JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and Allen is just like all of those guys.

 

Poor accuracy and decision making isn't something that gets corrected once you're playing against the best defenders in the world and the throwing lanes get significantly smaller than the ones he faced in the Mountain West Conference. 

 

Someone was going to get suckered into thinking they could "fix" Allen. I'm really disappointed it was the Bills. 

 

 

I get what you're saying. There is no doubt that Allen is a risky pick. He is much more talented than any of those QBs you mention and it is not even close. Hopefully, he will be the exception to the rule. 

 

Hopefully, we can develop him like Stafford who was a big armed QB with accuracy issues. Stafford was a below 60% thrower for his first 6 NFL seasons pretty much. Mahommes is another big-armed guy with accuracy issues (his completion % was very inflated in the air raid), the jury is still out on him. Favre and Kelly also improved their accuracy at the NFL level, that was a different era though. 

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billspro Veteran

billspro

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2 minutes ago, ColdFront_USAF said:

One of his most compared-to players is Cam Newton. Look at Cam's pre-draft stuff, it's quite similar. You'll see things like "big body, huge arm, crazy athletic for his size". You'll also see "needs to work on accuracy, reading defenses, making smart decisions with the ball". I for one am entirely shocked that two guys who coached/learned in Carolina and helped take Cam to a Super Bowl decided to draft a guy frequently compared to him. 

 

As for accuracy.. Jordan Palmer said a lot of stuff about it, so I'll just paraphrase rather than parrot him. He said the raw number isn't everything (another shock, I know). The team around him got significantly worse in 2017, as his mostly senior team from 16 all graduated and moved on. Yet, his completion percentage remained the same. It actually shows an improvement when factoring in that he lost a huge amount of his offense. Palmer and Allen both cited footwork issues that resulted in accuracy. That's coachable, to what extent remains to be seen. And the "unable to read a defense" thing, well I'm not sold on that narrative. At the very least, the potential is there, as he has proven to be very smart with the X's and O's. Let's wait and see if he can apply his intelligence to the field. 

 

Those are good points as well. 

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billspro Veteran

billspro

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1 minute ago, Chuck Wagon said:

If Wyoming had run 1 more bubble screen (easy completion) vs vertical pass every game he played in (25 games) he'd be a 60% passer. 

 

 

 

 

 

He was not given as many easy throws as most QBs in college football. Mayfield for example probably had 7 completions on bubble screens per game. 

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Chuck Wagon Veteran

Chuck Wagon

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11 minutes ago, billspro said:

 

He was not given as many easy throws as most QBs in college football. Mayfield for example probably had 7 completions on bubble screens per game. 

 

I might get flamed for it, but Wyoming was one of the very worst teams in Division 1 last year.  Everything they accomplished (winning a bowl game) was Allen.  As a Buckeye fan, after watching Barrett all year and tape of Allen, I think the Buckeyes win the title last year with Allen at QB and what would put a very different story on him as a prospect.  Flip him and Baker in Wyoming vs Oklahoma, I think Allen is pick #1 and Baker is a day 1 / day 2 fringe guy.

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C.Biscuit97 Hall of Famer

C.Biscuit97

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24 minutes ago, Irv said:

Everyone needs to chill out.  Jim Kelly's college stats!

 

Year Team Games Passing
G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate
1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7
1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7
1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2
1982 Miami   7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4
Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4

Can we post Joe Namath’s college stats too?

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Augie Hall of Famer

Augie

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4 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

If Wyoming had run 1 more bubble screen (easy completion) vs vertical pass every game he played in (25 games) he'd be a 60% passer. 

 

 

 

 

 

Well.......I’m trying not to be one of those guys, but the first pass I ever saw him throw was a bubble screen to his left. He one hopped it to the WR and I thought “he’s another EJ lacking natural throwing ability”. 

 

I’m praying we get Good Josh from the Senior Bowl, not Bad Josh the One Hopper. 

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Mojo44 RFA

Mojo44

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25 minutes ago, Irv said:

Everyone needs to chill out.  Jim Kelly's college stats!

 

Year Team Games Passing
G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate
1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7
1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7
1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2
1982 Miami   7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4
Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4

 This data is certainly a poke in the eye of all of the Allen haters!

 

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billspro Veteran

billspro

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3 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

I might get flamed for it, but Wyoming was one of the very worst teams in Division 1 last year.  Everything they accomplished (winning a bowl game) was Allen.  As a Buckeye fan, after watching Barrett all year and tape of Allen, I think the Buckeyes win the title last year with Allen at QB and what would put a very different story on him as a prospect.  Flip him and Baker in Wyoming vs Oklahoma, I think Allen is pick #1 and Baker is a day 1 / day 2 fringe guy.

 

That could be true, let's hope so. Wyoming did lose to one of the worst teams in college football when Allen was hurt. I just rewatched his senior bowl and he looked good throwing to better players. 

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TigerJ Veteran

TigerJ

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26 minutes ago, Irv said:

Everyone needs to chill out.  Jim Kelly's college stats!

 

Year Team Games Passing
G Rec Att Cmp Pct Yds TD Int Rate
1979 Miami 11 5–6–0 104 48 46.2 721 5 6 108.7
1980 Miami 12 9–3–0 206 109 52.9 1,519 11 7 125.7
1981 Miami 11 9–2–0 285 168 58.9 2,403 14 14 136.2
1982 Miami   7–4–0 81 51 63.0 585 3 1 133.4
Career 45 30–15 676 376 55.6 5,228 33 28 128.4

And Dan Marino's

    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Career Pitt         693 1204 57.6 8597 7.1 5.9 79 69 127.7
*1979 Pitt Ind   QB 12 130 222 58.6 1680 7.6 6.6 10 9 128.9
*1980 Pitt Ind   QB 12 116 224 51.8 1609 7.2 5.7 15 14 121.7
*1981 Pitt Ind   QB 12 226 380 59.5 2876 7.6 6.8 37 23 143.1
*1982 Pitt Ind   QB 12 221 378 58.5 2432 6.4 4.6 17 23 115.2

Note Marino's interception stats - 46 interceptions over his final two years.  In his senior year he had 17 touchdown passes and 23 interceptions.

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