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Very interesting read...


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The Browns should take Mayfield #1 overall. 

 

Too many of these advanced analytics say he's going to be a really good pro. 

 

I also hope we figure out how to move up to #2 overall so he doesn't wind up on the Jets.

 

Him going there and us winding up with Josh Allen is my nightmare. 

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This is the problem with today's big data mentality and the thought that we can predict anything with a simple model. Having taken my share of stats courses and someone who believes heavily (and relies on) in quantitative methods, I never look at the method and stats (or as dweebs like Jeremy White refer to them, to try to make themselves appear smart...analytics). It's simple for me.... the massive amounts of measures of individuals do nothing to predict team wins. And when guys like try to do something, get garbage results, and then keep publishing them, it's tie to ignore. I assume since he said he's trying to find a "correlation" that he's using a multiple regression model. The reason he has no significant results, and never will, is he's using college data that does not take into account the critical other variables that will determine the QB's success... coaching, quality of players around him, system, intelligence, hardwork, etc.... many qualitative points he's not measuring, and dweebs like Schopp poo poo, especially anything related to human and sports psychology (like momentum isn't a thing.. it is even if they haven't figured out how to measure it). 

 

So it's bunk, never read it again!

 

 

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4 minutes ago, zonabb said:

This is the problem with today's big data mentality and the thought that we can predict anything with a simple model. Having taken my share of stats courses and someone who believes heavily (and relies on) in quantitative methods, I never look at the method and stats (or as dweebs like Jeremy White refer to them, to try to make themselves appear smart...analytics). It's simple for me.... the massive amounts of measures of individuals do nothing to predict team wins. And when guys like try to do something, get garbage results, and then keep publishing them, it's tie to ignore. I assume since he said he's trying to find a "correlation" that he's using a multiple regression model. The reason he has no significant results, and never will, is he's using college data that does not take into account the critical other variables that will determine the QB's success... coaching, quality of players around him, system, intelligence, hardwork, etc.... many qualitative points he's not measuring, and dweebs like Schopp poo poo, especially anything related to human and sports psychology (like momentum isn't a thing.. it is even if they haven't figured out how to measure it). 

 

So it's bunk, never read it again!

 

 

Mayfield and Allen will provide interesting data points for the advanced statistics crowd. 

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1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

The Browns should take Mayfield #1 overall. 

 

Too many of these advanced analytics say he's going to be a really good pro. 

 

I also hope we figure out how to move up to #2 overall so he doesn't wind up on the Jets.

 

Him going there and us winding up with Josh Allen is my nightmare. 

I would rather have Mayfield because he is my #1 QB.  Allen is my number 2.

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1 hour ago, Wilton Bills said:

Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

never tried it. Pm me 

34 minutes ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

totally 100 percent agree with this statement 

whats the + - on this %. degree of error

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I wouldn't draft Josh Allen before the 4th round. 

uh oh.
some one is going to though. maybe by the 4th pick even

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1 hour ago, Mij yllek said:

 

Most important quote:



I think the comparisons will be more accurate when it comes to the number of QBs taken in the first round, not on how their careers turn out. To me, that's more a reflection of the desperation to find a QB than the QBs available to be taken.

1 hour ago, Wilton Bills said:

Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

Yes and testing should be done before you posters post.

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11 hours ago, Mij yllek said:

 

I think this is a case where the analytics may need to be adjusted

 

11 hours ago, sullim4 said:

On his 2017 list, Peterman was #4 and Chad Kelly was #5.

 

Enough said.

 

Nonononono not enough.  His 2nd highest score before this year was Johnny Manziel.  That needs to be said.

And who the heck is Cooper Rush, his #3?  "made me look", UDFA for the Cowboys, 1-of-2 passing for 2 yards and had 2 rushes for 13 yards in his NFL debut .

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