Zerovoltz Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Been reading through the recent Josh Allen threads and as has been hashed over and over....many think of him as a "project". It got me thinking....how many "project" QB's ever have really made it in the NFL? Steve McNair was the first one who came to my mind....he was drafted more or less as a project from a small school who was considered physically gifted but needed time to develop...and in his case...he actually did become a very good NFL QB after coming on pretty slow to start out....just as he was projected to do. Some would say Brett Favre was a project, but I can't really recall if that is what he was projected as, or just difficult to coach and tended to go off script to much as opposed to needing to work on becoming a better QB....(I am sure someone here can remind me/us) On the opposite side of that...the most recent disaster of a guy who pretty much everyone declared as a project is Paxton Lynch.......not being a Denver fan or close to that situation, I can't say I'd seen enough to declare him a bust, but they have....Case Keenum isn't there because they believe Lynch is about to be ready. Anyhow...post some examples of success and failures....identify what went right or wrong...might provide some insight into the draft class this year and maybe cause a few of us to reflect further or take a second look (I know just from visiting this site alone, I have wavered all over on Lamar Jackson based on peoples thoughts here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KDIGGZ Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Success = Tom Brady Failure = every Bills QB since 1997 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
transplantbillsfan Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 No one fits the Josh Allen project QB prototype for a guy drafted in the top 10 since Phil Simms in 1979. Steve McNair was an incredibly successful college QB, even if it was at a small school http://www.espn.com/page2/s/list/collegefootball/seasons.html McNair's incredible season, in which he led his 1-AA team to an 8-2-1 record, will always be suspect -- he was playing on a pass-giddy team against smaller competition. But the heck with the doubters. Troy State head coach Larry Blakeney, who coached Bo Jackson during his 12 years at Auburn, told the L.A. Times, "Steve McNair is the best football player I've ever seen. ... He'd be the best player on Colorado's team or Nebraska's team, too. He'd be the best player on any team in Division I-A. He's that good. ... He can do more to beat you with his abilities than anyone else I've ever seen. That includes Bo." McNair's stats: 4,863 yards passing, 936 yards rushing for an NCAA record 5,799 yards in total offense. QB rating: 155.4. TD passes: 44. And in the Heisman voting, he managed to finish third despite the doubters, and received 111 first-place votes. Brett Favre can be viewed in the same light as Josh Allen in terms of entering the NFL. He was also a 2nd round draft pick and traded away to have his eventual HOF career with a team that didn't draft him. Phil Simms. I've been challenging someone to find me a QB between 1979 and now who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats who was drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round and went onto a good NFL career. Still waiting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skins Malone Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) I would say one of the biggest would be Kurt Warner. Undrafted guy...goes to green bay gets released...is bagging groceries for 5 bucks an hour...arena football etc etc...and now the guy is in the hall of fame. Cant get much better then that. Edited April 17, 2018 by Skins Malone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted April 17, 2018 Author Share Posted April 17, 2018 Skins...I agree Warner is a great story. But, can you really call a guy who was basically barely on the radar a project? Maybe you can....he gained some notoriety playing in the Arena Leauge wich drew some interest from a few teams....but it's not like anyone went into that draft year and said Kurt Warner...he could be great but he's a project. I would think he is more a story about perserverance than being seen as this talented guy who just needed time and coaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Mike Vick? Eh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 Aaron Rodgers adjusted his throwing motion and sat three years behind Favre. I don't know if he was considered a project QB though. You usually don't take project's in the 1st round and hope they work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: No one fits the Josh Allen project QB prototype for a guy drafted in the top 10 since Phil Simms in 1979. Steve McNair was an incredibly successful college QB, even if it was at a small school http://www.espn.com/page2/s/list/collegefootball/seasons.html McNair's incredible season, in which he led his 1-AA team to an 8-2-1 record, will always be suspect -- he was playing on a pass-giddy team against smaller competition. But the heck with the doubters. Troy State head coach Larry Blakeney, who coached Bo Jackson during his 12 years at Auburn, told the L.A. Times, "Steve McNair is the best football player I've ever seen. ... He'd be the best player on Colorado's team or Nebraska's team, too. He'd be the best player on any team in Division I-A. He's that good. ... He can do more to beat you with his abilities than anyone else I've ever seen. That includes Bo." McNair's stats: 4,863 yards passing, 936 yards rushing for an NCAA record 5,799 yards in total offense. QB rating: 155.4. TD passes: 44. And in the Heisman voting, he managed to finish third despite the doubters, and received 111 first-place votes. Brett Favre can be viewed in the same light as Josh Allen in terms of entering the NFL. He was also a 2nd round draft pick and traded away to have his eventual HOF career with a team that didn't draft him. Phil Simms. I've been challenging someone to find me a QB between 1979 and now who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats who was drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round and went onto a good NFL career. Still waiting Yes, but how surprising is it that out of the extremely small pool you're proposing? Forget guys who went on to a good NFL career. Very few guys who played at a small college against mediocre competition and had mediocre stats were drafted in the top ten, probably because none were thought to be as likely to be good as Allen. Especially hazy and unfocused, as "mediocre" is a very unclear word, as is "small" schools. Is Boston College a small school for Matt Ryan? He had pretty mediocre stats. Syracuse for McNabb (who had a very fine senior campaign anyway)? How many guys are we talking about? Four? Andre Ware? Terrific senior year. David Klingler? For his time he was generally thought of as having terrific stats, overinflated, actually. Kelly Stouffer? OK, fair enough. Dilfer at Fresno State? Great senior year. Three guys? Four? Statistically insignificant. Means absolutely nothing. All you're pointing out here is how rare a guy Allen is to be good enough in his situation to be considered a possible top ten pick. Which we already knew. Edited April 17, 2018 by Thurman#1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Statistically insignificant. Means absolutely nothing. All you're pointing out here is how rare a guy Allen is to be good enough in his situation to be considered a possible top ten pick. And metrics such as that are just a really blunt instrument for trying to project Quarterbacks anyway. People don't succeed or fail based on what other people who might have a few things in common with them did in totally different circumstances. You can't just read Josh Allen and Wyoming and jump to Kelly Stouffer and Colorado State any more than you can jump straight to Carson Wentz and North Dakota State. None of that is relevant in any way. You have to treat each guy on their own merits and on the strengths and weaknesses you see on their own tape. If there was a short cut to projecting QBs based on a set of simple metric measurements NFL teams would have found it by now. There isn't. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: And metrics such as that are just a really blunt instrument for trying to project Quarterbacks anyway. People don't succeed or fail based on what other people who might have a few things in common with them did in totally different circumstances. You can't just read Josh Allen and Wyoming and jump to Kelly Stouffer and Colorado State any more than you can jump straight to Carson Wentz and North Dakota State. None of that is relevant in any way. You have to treat each guy on their own merits and on the strengths and weaknesses you see on their own tape. If there was a short cut to projecting QBs based on a set of simple metric measurements NFL teams would have found it by now. There isn't. Nicely put. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: And metrics such as that are just a really blunt instrument for trying to project Quarterbacks anyway. People don't succeed or fail based on what other people who might have a few things in common with them did in totally different circumstances. You can't just read Josh Allen and Wyoming and jump to Kelly Stouffer and Colorado State any more than you can jump straight to Carson Wentz and North Dakota State. None of that is relevant in any way. You have to treat each guy on their own merits and on the strengths and weaknesses you see on their own tape. If there was a short cut to projecting QBs based on a set of simple metric measurements NFL teams would have found it by now. There isn't. Amen! This is the toughest problem for any team... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Zerovotlz said: Skins...I agree Warner is a great story. But, can you really call a guy who was basically barely on the radar a project? Maybe you can....he gained some notoriety playing in the Arena Leauge wich drew some interest from a few teams....but it's not like anyone went into that draft year and said Kurt Warner...he could be great but he's a project. I would think he is more a story about perserverance than being seen as this talented guy who just needed time and coaching. Just looking at your avatar, Mahomes is the perfect test case for a project QB drafted in the top half of the 1st round. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
formerlyofCtown Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) Tony Romo and hopefully Nathan Peterman soon as well as AJ McCarran. Then we can trade them and the rest of our team along with 2 years worth of draft capital to get the QB that some TSW poster wants to be our future. Edited April 17, 2018 by formerlyofCtown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 3 hours ago, Zerovotlz said: Been reading through the recent Josh Allen threads and as has been hashed over and over....many think of him as a "project". It got me thinking....how many "project" QB's ever have really made it in the NFL? Steve McNair was the first one who came to my mind....he was drafted more or less as a project from a small school who was considered physically gifted but needed time to develop...and in his case...he actually did become a very good NFL QB after coming on pretty slow to start out....just as he was projected to do. Some would say Brett Favre was a project, but I can't really recall if that is what he was projected as, or just difficult to coach and tended to go off script to much as opposed to needing to work on becoming a better QB....(I am sure someone here can remind me/us) On the opposite side of that...the most recent disaster of a guy who pretty much everyone declared as a project is Paxton Lynch.......not being a Denver fan or close to that situation, I can't say I'd seen enough to declare him a bust, but they have....Case Keenum isn't there because they believe Lynch is about to be ready. Anyhow...post some examples of success and failures....identify what went right or wrong...might provide some insight into the draft class this year and maybe cause a few of us to reflect further or take a second look (I know just from visiting this site alone, I have wavered all over on Lamar Jackson based on peoples thoughts here) It's really hard to define a project QB. Isn't Drew Brees one? He sat for his first year behind Flutie while the Dougster was completing 56.4% of his passes and throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs. I'd argue Cousins is a terrific example. Isn't Romo one? Is a project QB only a guy who has potential to be near-elite or a top ten guy if he develops? Or is it anyone who is thought to be able to start if he develops? Hard to say. Favre? Dunno, maybe. The story is bizarre. Take a look: https://www.si.com/nfl/2016/10/18/brett-favre-book-jeff-pearlman-atlanta-falcons-green-bay-packers He certainly wasn't picked to start the first year. Miller was the established starter. Isn't Brady one? No, nobody called him to be excellent but they thought he might be decent down the line. Isn't that developmental? I think it is, but it's reasonable to disagree. I think Russell Wilson was drafted as a developmental guy but they found to their surprise and excitement he was ready right away. What is a developmental QB? I'd say it's a guy who you think/hope can get a lot better with time and teaching. I think there are plenty of them over the years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zerovoltz Posted April 17, 2018 Author Share Posted April 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Doc Brown said: Just looking at your avatar, Mahomes is the perfect test case for a project QB drafted in the top half of the 1st round. Yeah....good point...the knock on Mahomes was that his mechanics needed work and he'd need some time to learn taking snaps under center... 31 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: It's really hard to define a project QB. Isn't Drew Brees one? He sat for his first year behind Flutie while the Dougster was completing 56.4% of his passes and throwing 15 TDs and 18 INTs. I'd argue Cousins is a terrific example. Isn't Romo one? Is a project QB only a guy who has potential to be near-elite or a top ten guy if he develops? Or is it anyone who is thought to be able to start if he develops? Hard to say. Favre? Dunno, maybe. The story is bizarre. Take a look: https://www.si.com/nfl/2016/10/18/brett-favre-book-jeff-pearlman-atlanta-falcons-green-bay-packers He certainly wasn't picked to start the first year. Miller was the established starter. Isn't Brady one? No, nobody called him to be excellent but they thought he might be decent down the line. Isn't that developmental? I think it is, but it's reasonable to disagree. I think Russell Wilson was drafted as a developmental guy but they found to their surprise and excitement he was ready right away. What is a developmental QB? I'd say it's a guy who you think/hope can get a lot better with time and teaching. I think there are plenty of them over the years. So, yes, this is kind of hard to define. I'd almost try and separate these into two categories...Project...and developmental. When I hear project, it seems like that is always associated with some QB who posses physical talents/traits but lacks experience in a certain offense, or needs mechanics work, but who scouts have identified as someone with a very high ceiling if the project to fix those issues succeeds. The developmental QB would be someone identified as a 3rd round pick or later, who lacks something physically usually, but who has exhibited proficient play in college and could become a servicable backup or starter if surrounded by a strong roster etc someday......so to that end....you could see Mahomes as a "project" although, I still tihnk of that term as something reserved for VERY RAW prospects that need alot of work...more than Mahomes....by this defintion..jsut about eveyrone in this 1st round is a project...and I don't really think that term fits Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield...like it fits Allen.....where as Peterman would be developmental....over time he could be serviceable starter but never expected to be a "star" .....does that make sense? If so....Allen would surely be a "project". Paxton Lynch would be a project. Bryce Petty would have been considered developmental. So, to me..project should apply to someone just like Allen or Lynch....physical traits are there, height, arm, etc, but have some serious work to fix major flaws....so that if fixed you have a star...that is a project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakingfane Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 What about Joe Flacco? He had all the measurables with a high ceiling but there was no consensus that he would reach it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 2 hours ago, GunnerBill said: And metrics such as that are just a really blunt instrument for trying to project Quarterbacks anyway. People don't succeed or fail based on what other people who might have a few things in common with them did in totally different circumstances. You can't just read Josh Allen and Wyoming and jump to Kelly Stouffer and Colorado State any more than you can jump straight to Carson Wentz and North Dakota State. None of that is relevant in any way. You have to treat each guy on their own merits and on the strengths and weaknesses you see on their own tape. If there was a short cut to projecting QBs based on a set of simple metric measurements NFL teams would have found it by now. There isn't. I think that this holds true on everything GB. Guys might remind you of someone but everyone needs to be judged on their own merits. There are successes and failures all over the map. You increase your chances of getting in right by putting guys in position to succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 (edited) Brees cousins Wilson Dak Brady Rodgers Flacco Dalton Carr so pretty much every current QB in the nfl that’s played and won a Super Bowl except Eli and maybe Ben and a bunch of other guys too. Honorable mention: Foles Keenum tyrod Edited April 17, 2018 by Over 29 years of fanhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 I’d include guys that didn’t play in major college conferences like: Big Ben Flacco Romo (I’m sure there are a few others.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted April 17, 2018 Share Posted April 17, 2018 They’re all projects in some way, shape, or form. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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