Project QB's who DID reach potential

[DrDawkinstein]

My idea of a "Project QB" for this discussion would be specifically a 1st round pick. Teams risk nothing on UDFAs like Romo and Warner (or even later round picks). If they develop, great. If not, whatever. I also dont think they'd have the same attention (good and bad) and pressures. So it isnt fair to lump them all together when some were just "underdogs".

 

So if we're talking "1st Round Project QBs". Guys who had enough potential to draw attention and get a team to risk serious investment, but not obvious NFL skills which would need care and development...

 

McNabb is the name that comes to mind. He was a major project and a huge task for Andy Reid. But McNabb did it, with help from Reid and staff and funny enough the vet QB they brought in to help, Doug Pederson.

 

So it would seem Mahommes is in good hands with someone who has done this before in Reid.

 

Now, to wrap this into the Bills and the possibility of drafting and developing a QB as well as Andy Reid... I'll admit I've been skeptical. McD is a defensive coach. Has anyone else on the staff been around developing a QB?... Then I looked at the Reid's staff for McNabb's early years:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Philadelphia_Eagles_season#Staff

Quote

Head coaches

• Head Coach – Andy Reid
• Assistant to the Head Coach – Sean McDermott

 

Along with David Culley, who has been a WR coach, but part of Reid's staff for almost 20 years. So he knows coaching and offense and the QB position, and I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. And we'll see what Daboll can do too.

 

Now Im not saying we should draft Allen. He's probably almost last on my list (and definitely 4th of the big 4). But I'd like to see what this staff can do with a young QB prospect.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

They have been doing this dance fo years and as usually it comes down to communication and definition of what they are looking for:

 

we have seen what is the middle of the field arguments - where you break that down,

 

deep middle versus middle versus passes just across the line of scrimmage,

 

accuracy and and ability to run after catch,

 

now QBs that fit a certain profile.

 

 

Based on What Transplant originally asked - I think Thurm better understood the question than Transplant who actually asked it, but they will eventually agree to disagree an it will come up again.

 

Ahhhhh Good Times.

 

I understood what I asked okay, but even loosening up a little to be more inclusive so that they aren't just "top 10" guys,, since 2000 there have been 45 QBs drafted in the first round... and I'd say at least 10 of them were "projects" in the spirit of what the OP was asking.

 

But back to my own criteria you think I'm confused about, I think Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsey are all guys generally fit that criteria since 2000.  All were busts. 

 

Loosening up more, Jake Locker was in a bigger conference but was utterly blah in college and pretty clearly drafted for potential.  Bust.

 

Jay Cutler played in the SEC but at one of the small schools and was mediocre.  I think he's probably the closest thing a success story in the vein of what I was asking and what the OP asked.

 

But if you then want to just expand it to the obvious projects despite college success you include guys like JaMarcus Russell, Tim Tebow, Ryan Tannehill, Paxton Lynch.  Blake Bortles and Tannehill has have had some success, but the rest sure look like busts. Those guys might already be busting, too, particularly Bortles, who was just kinda oddly signed to a fairly lucrative extension. It's what comes with being overdrafted, though.

 

 

Hap brought up the 2nd round as another place these project QBs are drafted.  In terms of those project QBs... and again, these I at least (and I think the OP, too) define as guys who, to put it simply, are drafted because of their physical traits (height, arm strength, speed, etc) not in spite of them.  Andy Dalton was drafted in spite of being a little short and having a little bit of a weaker arm.  Russell Wilson was drafted, obviously, in spite of his height.  Drew Brees was drafted in spite of his height.  Those guys weren't viewed as projects.  Projects need a ton of work, hence the "project" moniker. Those guys were viewed as developmental in the sense that there was hope that they'd develop into starting NFL QBs. I think the end of Blake Bortles scouting reports is almost precisely the definition of what a Project QB is:

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/blake-bortles-1.html

Possesses ideal size, athletic ability, intangibles and enough arm strength to develop into an upper-echelon quarterback. Is not yet a franchise quarterback, but has all the physical ingredients to become an outstanding NFL starter

 

I feel like that could be simply cut and pasted into the definition of "Project QB," don't you?

 

I realize that people are going to bring Big Ben, Carson Wentz and Flacco into the fold here, and while all of those guys had the physical gifts, they were also largely ahead of the game in terms of their footwork and mechanics for the NFL. They weren't project QBs in the spirit of that term. They were question marks in terms of level of competition and production in college translating to NFL success.

 

Include them if you want. The success rate still doesn't look good for these guys.

 

If we're going intothe 2nd round, Christian Hackenberg, Colin Kaepernick, Brock Osweiler, maybe even a guy like Brian Brohm were all projects who were drafted almost purely for that ball of clay physical potential.  Kaep was almost a success story.  Maybe he was. Went to a Super Bowl. Out of the league now.

 

 

So since 2000 we've had 18 or 21 project QBs taken in the 1st or 2nd round (if you are or are not including Big Ben, Flacco and Wentz) and we've had maybe 3-6 success stories, optimistically with Cutler, Tannehill, Kaep and Big Ben, Wentz and Flacco if you stretch that definition a bit.

 

3 Franchise QBs, 3 starters who flashed at moments, 15 busts.

 

Not exactly models of success.

 

If we want to keep going back, we could find more examples, I'm sure. I only went back to 2000 and we still averaged more than 1 project QB per year. And on average, once every 6 years you're going to find a Franchise QB drafting a project QB. 

 

And Allen's background and history and production in college is notably worse than a lot of these other guys. And he regressed rather than progressed through college.

 

Hence, my belief Allen's got about a 5% chance to go on in the NFL to be a Franchise QB.  It's a chance.  Not a very good one, but it's a chance. But it's sure one I hope Buffalo doesn't take.

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[billspro]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah, "project" and "developmental" are connotatively 2 very different things when it comes to QBs. 

 

 

Project QBs are those balls of clay supposedly ready to be molded into whatever you want.  Guys who are raw but so physically talented that he (supposedly) just needs to be shaped into whatever you want with time.

 

Developmental QBs are Day 3 guys in the draft.

 

 

When you asked the question in the OP, I assumed you were talking about the former, not the latter. 

 

 

How was Stafford a project?

 

 

Stafford was a huge project. He had a low completion percentage in college and took four years of grooming in the NFL before he was good.

[MJS]

Alex Smith.

[reddogblitz]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yep!  And I have no worries about flipping them either.

 

The point is that to have a meaningful discussion, we all need to be working off the same understanding of the same words

 

defining "developmental QB" is just as hard as defining "franchise QB"

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, billspro said:

 

Stafford was a huge project. He had a low completion percentage in college and took four years of grooming in the NFL before he was good.

 

No. Revisionist history. And an incomplete Revisionist history at that.

 

Yeah, Stafford had a low completion percentage overall in college, but he improved on it every year and in his last year he had a 61.5% completion %, threw for almost 3500 yards at 9 YPA at Georgia against serious competition and was the consensus 1st overall pick by nearly everyone.

 

4 years of grooming? In his 3rd year he threw for over 5000 yards and 40 TDs. He missed the vast majority of his 2nd year due to a shoulder injury. His rookie year he won the job from Daunte Culpepper and struggled mightily... probably because the Lions were just one year removed from being 0-16 and absolutely sucked as a team.

 

Stafford certainly does NOT qualify as Project QB.

[Rochesterfan]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I understood what I asked okay, but even loosening up a little to be more inclusive so that they aren't just "top 10" guys,, since 2000 there have been 45 QBs drafted in the first round... and I'd say at least 10 of them were "projects" in the spirit of what the OP was asking.

 

But back to my own criteria you think I'm confused about, I think Blaine Gabbert, Josh Freeman, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsey are all guys generally fit that criteria since 2000.  All were busts. 

 

Loosening up more, Jake Locker was in a bigger conference but was utterly blah in college and pretty clearly drafted for potential.  Bust.

 

Jay Cutler played in the SEC but at one of the small schools and was mediocre.  I think he's probably the closest thing a success story in the vein of what I was asking and what the OP asked.

 

But if you then want to just expand it to the obvious projects despite college success you include guys like JaMarcus Russell, Tim Tebow, Ryan Tannehill, Paxton Lynch.  Blake Bortles and Tannehill has have had some success, but the rest sure look like busts. Those guys might already be busting, too, particularly Bortles, who was just kinda oddly signed to a fairly lucrative extension. It's what comes with being overdrafted, though.

 

 

Hap brought up the 2nd round as another place these project QBs are drafted.  In terms of those project QBs... and again, these I at least (and I think the OP, too) define as guys who, to put it simply, are drafted because of their physical traits (height, arm strength, speed, etc) not in spite of them.  Andy Dalton was drafted in spite of being a little short and having a little bit of a weaker arm.  Russell Wilson was drafted, obviously, in spite of his height.  Drew Brees was drafted in spite of his height.  Those guys weren't viewed as projects.  Projects need a ton of work, hence the "project" moniker. Those guys were viewed as developmental in the sense that there was hope that they'd develop into starting NFL QBs. I think the end of Blake Bortles scouting reports is almost precisely the definition of what a Project QB is:

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/blake-bortles-1.html

Possesses ideal size, athletic ability, intangibles and enough arm strength to develop into an upper-echelon quarterback. Is not yet a franchise quarterback, but has all the physical ingredients to become an outstanding NFL starter

 

I feel like that could be simply cut and pasted into the definition of "Project QB," don't you?

 

I realize that people are going to bring Big Ben, Carson Wentz and Flacco into the fold here, and while all of those guys had the physical gifts, they were also largely ahead of the game in terms of their footwork and mechanics for the NFL. They weren't project QBs in the spirit of that term. They were question marks in terms of level of competition and production in college translating to NFL success.

 

Include them if you want. The success rate still doesn't look good for these guys.

 

If we're going intothe 2nd round, Christian Hackenberg, Colin Kaepernick, Brock Osweiler, maybe even a guy like Brian Brohm were all projects who were drafted almost purely for that ball of clay physical potential.  Kaep was almost a success story.  Maybe he was. Went to a Super Bowl. Out of the league now.

 

 

So since 2000 we've had 18 or 21 project QBs taken in the 1st or 2nd round (if you are or are not including Big Ben, Flacco and Wentz) and we've had maybe 3-6 success stories, optimistically with Cutler, Tannehill, Kaep and Big Ben, Wentz and Flacco if you stretch that definition a bit.

 

3 Franchise QBs, 3 starters who flashed at moments, 15 busts.

 

Not exactly models of success.

 

If we want to keep going back, we could find more examples, I'm sure. I only went back to 2000 and we still averaged more than 1 project QB per year. And on average, once every 6 years you're going to find a Franchise QB drafting a project QB. 

 

And Allen's background and history and production in college is notably worse than a lot of these other guys. And he regressed rather than progressed through college.

 

Hence, my belief Allen's got about a 5% chance to go on in the NFL to be a Franchise QB.  It's a chance.  Not a very good one, but it's a chance. But it's sure one I hope Buffalo doesn't take.

 

 

 

See but here here is the issue - most of the guys you mention do not fall into you original question - so I stand by the fact that you have trouble defying your parameters and sticking to it.

 

The original question you asked was projects, from small schools, drafted in the top 10, since 1979 were successful?

 

So that gives you guys like:

Carson Wentz

Blake Bortles 

Alex Smith

Philip Rivers

Byron Leftwich 

David Carr

 

since 2000 as potential fits for you and even then some are from smaller sized D1 schools and some were not projects in the same regard, and some the jury is still out on.

 

If Allen hits this group - your success rate is pretty good, you chance to be an average QB is pretty good, and your bust rate is fairly low.

 

Now to try and get across the point you were trying to make which is you do not like Allen and you think he will bust - you expand it and start adding guys later in the draft or guys from bigger main D1 schools, or other projects to find a pool that fits what you want.  

 

In the end - just like most of your arguments - step away from the small picture and look at the overall.  The bust rates an QBs and draft position have been given many times - each player is unique and instead of trying to find his pool and decide that understand there is bust potential and franchise level play in all of these round 1 QBs - where they go - the teaching they get - the offense they run - the Offensive consistency they have - will all factor into whether they succeed or fail.  

 

I do not disagree with your conclusions- it is just your method of trying to find and fit him into a group that is the problem and then expanded the group to include guys like Tannehill, Cutler, Locker, but questioning better fits like Big Ben or Flacco is just strange.  I mean when you expand it why not include Eli Manning or Stafford or Aaron Rodgers - all went to Div 1 schools, but all needed work coming out.  A guy like Rodgers fell to mid 20s - a perfect example of a developmental QB that is a success.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

defining "developmental QB" is just as hard as defining "franchise QB"

 

Apparently so, and add "project QB" to the list.

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

See but here here is the issue - most of the guys you mention do not fall into you original question - so I stand by the fact that you have trouble defying your parameters and sticking to it.

 

The original question you asked was projects, from small schools, drafted in the top 10, since 1979 were successful?

 

So that gives you guys like:

Carson Wentz

Blake Bortles 

Alex Smith

Philip Rivers

Byron Leftwich 

David Carr

 

since 2000 as potential fits for you and even then some are from smaller sized D1 schools and some were not projects in the same regard, and some the jury is still out on.

 

If Allen hits this group - your success rate is pretty good, you chance to be an average QB is pretty good, and your bust rate is fairly low.

 

Now to try and get across the point you were trying to make which is you do not like Allen and you think he will bust - you expand it and start adding guys later in the draft or guys from bigger main D1 schools, or other projects to find a pool that fits what you want.  

 

In the end - just like most of your arguments - step away from the small picture and look at the overall.  The bust rates an QBs and draft position have been given many times - each player is unique and instead of trying to find his pool and decide that understand there is bust potential and franchise level play in all of these round 1 QBs - where they go - the teaching they get - the offense they run - the Offensive consistency they have - will all factor into whether they succeed or fail.  

 

I do not disagree with your conclusions- it is just your method of trying to find and fit him into a group that is the problem and then expanded the group to include guys like Tannehill, Cutler, Locker, but questioning better fits like Big Ben or Flacco is just strange.  I mean when you expand it why not include Eli Manning or Stafford or Aaron Rodgers - all went to Div 1 schools, but all needed work coming out.  A guy like Rodgers fell to mid 20s - a perfect example of a developmental QB that is a success.

 

I know what I originally asked. And that's not what I originally asked.

 

The argument that ensued with Thurm (inevitably) pertained to the fact that there's such a small sample size, which somehow nullifies the point, which completely misses the fact that that actually is the point.

 

Project QBs from big schools drafted for physical potential despite bleh college careers particularly on a sliding scale down rarely succeed the way Jay Cutler or Ryan Tannehill did.

 

Project QBs from smaller schools with really good to spectacular college careers typically trending up has been the relative model for success if you want to include Kaep, Big Ben, Flacco and Wentz.

 

But since Phil Simms was drafted in the 1st round in 1979, where are the QBs from small schools with bleh college careers who went onto even solid NFL careers? That was my original question. Blaine Gabbert and Josh Freeman certainly aren't recent examples and these are the only recent ones I can think of in the 1st round. Anyone else? Brett Favre was drafted in the 2nd, meets all the other criteria and went onto a HOF career, so expand the parameters to the 2nd. Brock Osweiler and Christian Hackenberg don't look like they're heading down that road.

 

I know exactly what I asked. The fact that these guys haven't been drafted means something and, as one poster put it in another thread, is Josh Allen really this incredible exception to the rule or is some GM going to draft him because of hubris? If it's the former, awesome... maybe Allen is great and breaks the trend. If it's the latter, it's more of the same and seemed obvious.

 

And I expanded the question outward to show that project QBs overwhelmingly don't work out, anyway. I think it's being generous including Big Ben, Flacco and Wentz in the criteria for Project QB since the questions for them was all about level of competition rather than accuracy, footwork, mechanics, etc. You can criticize me including them, but as far as "projects" go (and again, I think that summary I posted from Bortles's scouting report at nfl.com captured that definition perfectly), Wentz and Big Ben really weren't, but Flacco might have been. That was my logic for not including them.

 

But even including them, you end up with maybe 10% of these guys being Franchise QBs this millennium.

 

Not so good.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Apparently so, and add "project QB" to the list.

 

Project QB= Possesses ideal size, athletic ability, intangibles and enough arm strength to develop into an upper-echelon quarterback. Is not yet a franchise quarterback, but has all the physical ingredients to become an outstanding NFL starter

[reddogblitz]

What about David Gerrard? 

 

He had a decent run as starter for Jacksonville.  Only problem was he was saddled with Leftwitch whom he finally did beat out.  Got to AFC Championship one year iirc.  Out of East Carolina Status University Pirates.  89 TDs 54 picks.  61.6 %.  Not bad,

 

Matt Hasselbeck too.

 

He is out of Boston College which might blow it.  rode the pine n GB for 2 years behind Favre.  6th round pick.  Got to SB one year and at lest one other NFC Championship game.

Edited April 19, 2018 by reddogblitz