Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM John Butler In The Draft? HINT: Pretty Darn Good

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

This is spot on.  Lonnie was inconsistent but that doesn’t change the fact that he was fairly productive at TE for the Bills and that’s a fact

 

Productive with a HoF QB, HoF RB, and HoF OLs out there.

 

I'm not going to be convinced that all these JAGs you have as "hits" because they played ok among an All-Pro cast mean that Butler drafted well.

1 hour ago, BuffalothruMyVeins said:

And then he went to San Diego, and drafted Drew Brees. 

If Ralph weren't so cheap, Smith and Butler wouldn't have left, and that would have been Buffalo selecting Tomlinson and Brees, right at the birth of this QB-friendly era.

 

San Diego had the #1 overall pick that year. Buffalo went to the playoffs. We were never drafting those players regardless of who is at GM.

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Ok I get it but take a look at Lonnie’s stats.  3 straight years as starter with almost 50 receptions.  Much better production than Jay Riemersma most seasons and about the same as Charles Clay.  It’s not a home run but overall I’m giving him a hit.

 

Sammy was a close call but I don’t feel he did enough with the Bills....I’m not considering his work on other teams.  It’s based on what he did with the Bills

 

It truly is a crap shoot and success is sometimes all about finding the right fit.  But it’s clear some draft classes are way stronger than others 

Johnson was actually really terrible regardless of how many catches he had.

[NoSaint]

Does it bother you that his percentage dips below Russ Brandon once you correct your math?

[Mango]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

Does it bother you that his percentage dips below Russ Brandon once you correct your math?

 

I mean onbbiously not, his math has Russ Brandon as the greatest GM the Bills have had in 30+ years. 

 

In what world is Sammy Morris a miss...

[BillsVet]

8 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

After a short break - I am back.  It's one of the most talked about threads on the board - Hits and Misses.   This thread will analyze for Bills GM John Butler.  A few reminders about this thread:

 

So far John Butler is the clear favorite over other Buffalo GM's when it comes to the draft.  We will see if Tom Donahoe or Doug Whaley have a higher percentage:

 

1. John Butler - 38%

2. Russ Brandon: 28%

3. Marv Levy: 25%

4. Buddy Nix: 25%

5. Bill Polian: 23%

 

One of the most talked about threads? Sure whatever. 

 

You've ranked Russ Brandon, Marv Levy, and Buddy Nix ahead of Bill Polian?  Sorry dude, not buying it. 

[BuffaloRush]

28 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

One of the most talked about threads? Sure whatever. 

 

You've ranked Russ Brandon, Marv Levy, and Buddy Nix ahead of Bill Polian?  Sorry dude, not buying it. 

 

His percentage is greatly helped by the fact he was GM for just two drafts, and one of those drafts was actually pretty solid.  Polian missed quite a bit, though hit some home runs too.

 

Also remember this is just evaluating the draft, not their entire stint as GM.

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Does it bother you that his percentage dips below Russ Brandon once you correct your math?

Nope it does not... what kind of math are you doing?

41 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I mean onbbiously not, his math has Russ Brandon as the greatest GM the Bills have had in 30+ years. 

 

In what world is Sammy Morris a miss...

 

Sammy Morris = JAG.  Especially when he was a Bill

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Johnson was actually really terrible regardless of how many catches he had.

 

The data says otherwise...

Edited April 10, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[Misterbluesky]

Once again..a GM is only as good or bad as his scouting staff. 

[Ol Dirty B]

47 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

One of the most talked about threads? Sure whatever. 

 

You've ranked Russ Brandon, Marv Levy, and Buddy Nix ahead of Bill Polian?  Sorry dude, not buying it. 

 

The child is delusional. No one cares about these threads, it's just another WGR caller rambling on with an opinion on a subject that means nothing.

 

The hell does it matter if Butler drafted better now retired players than the now retired players donahoe drafted?

Edited April 10, 2018 by Ol Dirty B

[NoSaint]

5 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

His percentage is greatly helped by the fact he was GM for just two drafts, and one of those drafts was actually pretty solid.  Polian missed quite a bit, though hit some home runs too.

 

Also remember this is just evaluating the draft, not their entire stint as GM.

Nope it does not... what kind of math are you doing?

 

Sammy Morris = JAG.  Especially when he was a Bill

 

The data says otherwise...

You said 30 hits and 78 misses 

 

30/108= 27.7%

[BuffaloRush]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

You said 30 hits and 78 misses 

 

30/108= 27.7%

 

No my brother that was an error.  Butler had a total of 78 picks,  He had 30 hits and 48 for a total of 38%.  Butler was an effective GM when it came to the draft

[dave mcbride]

8 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

His percentage is greatly helped by the fact he was GM for just two drafts, and one of those drafts was actually pretty solid.  Polian missed quite a bit, though hit some home runs too.

 

Also remember this is just evaluating the draft, not their entire stint as GM.

Nope it does not... what kind of math are you doing?

 

Sammy Morris = JAG.  Especially when he was a Bill

 

The data says otherwise...

The data says nothing about his drops, bad routes, and terrible blocking. If a TE is getting 40+ catches in a season and only has an AV of 3 (which happened twice!), that tells you something. He was a physically gifted but deeply flawed player who just happened to play in an offense under Kelly that featured the TE. 

 

Also, if you're not including performances for other teams, you aren't analyzing properly.

Edited April 10, 2018 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloRush]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

The data says nothing about his drops, bad routes, and terrible blocking. If a TE is getting 40+ catches in a season and only has an AV of 3 (which happened twice!), that tells you something. He was a physically gifted but deeply flawed player who just happened to play in an offense under Kelly that featured the TE. 

 

Also, if you're not including performances for other teams, you aren't analyzing properly.

 

Yes I am analyzing performances properly.  It’s all about putting the performance through the lens of their fit and performance for the Bills. 

 

Todd Collins was a QB picked in the 2nd round.  We can agree he was a MISS correct?  But if you look at the season he had for Washington in 2007, does that make him a hit?  Hell no.  

 

Also you clearly had a bias against Lonnie Johnson.  As I said, the numbers show he was a productive player and that can’t be disputed.  Your take that Lonnie underachieved is an opinion, that’s fine.  But don’t try to pass your opinion as it’s a fact.  How do you quantify “terrible blocking” or “bad route?”  You can quantify “drops” but you have chosen not to.  

 

The difference is I have the data to explicitly show that he was a decent TE.  It surprised me.  

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Yes I am analyzing performances properly.  It’s all about putting the performance through the lens of their fit and performance for the Bills. 

 

Todd Collins was a QB picked in the 2nd round.  We can agree he was a MISS correct?  But if you look at the season he had for Washington in 2007, does that make him a hit?  Hell no.  

 

Also you clearly had a bias against Lonnie Johnson.  As I said, the numbers show he was a productive player and that can’t be disputed.  Your take that Lonnie underachieved is an opinion, that’s fine.  But don’t try to pass your opinion as it’s a fact.  How do you quantify “terrible blocking” or “bad route?”  You can quantify “drops” but you have chosen not to.  

 

The difference is I have the data to explicitly show that he was a decent TE.  It surprised me.  

Did you watch the games Johnson played in? I did - all of them. Johnson sucked, and he dropped a LOT of passes. I can't find the stats, but I really do trust my memory on this one. He was a bad blocker too. He was famous for it, actually. Any number of people here who followed the Bills closely in those years will tell you the same thing. The Bills had high hopes for him but he was a MAJOR disappointment. 

 

Also, don't get caught up with catch numbers. As I always say about the NBA, even the worst teams in league history average 80+ points a game, and someone on that team is getting ~20 pts per game. It doesn't mean he's any good. Same goes for tackles in the NFL. *Someone* has to get assigned a tackle on every defensive play. The stat doesn't tell us much about whether a player is good or not, however.  The tackle leaders for the Bills in 2012 were, in order, George Wilson, Nick Barnett, and Kelvin Sheppard. None were any good.

 

And yes, Todd Collins sucked. Terrible outcome for that pick. No argument there.

Edited April 10, 2018 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloRush]

50 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Did you watch the games Johnson played in? I did - all of them. Johnson sucked, and he dropped a LOT of passes. I can't find the stats, but I really do trust my memory on this one. He was a bad blocker too. He was famous for it, actually. Any number of people here who followed the Bills closely in those years will tell you the same thing. The Bills had high hopes for him but he was a MAJOR disappointment. 

 

Also, don't get caught up with catch numbers. As I always say about the NBA, even the worst teams in league history average 80+ points a game, and someone on that team is getting ~20 pts per game. It doesn't mean he's any good. Same goes for tackles in the NFL. *Someone* has to get assigned a tackle on every defensive play. The stat doesn't tell us much about whether a player is good or not, however.  The tackle leaders for the Bills in 2012 were, in order, George Wilson, Nick Barnett, and Kelvin Sheppard. None were any good.

 

And yes, Todd Collins sucked. Terrible outcome for that pick. No argument there.

 

Right because a fan’s memory and opinion trumps any sort of quantitative data.  I deal in facts and not emotions and based on those fans Lonnie is a very marginal hit based on a decent amount of production for a 2nd round Tight End

[BillsVet]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Right because a fan’s memory and opinion trumps any sort of quantitative data.  I deal in facts and not emotions and based on those fans Lonnie is a very marginal hit based on a decent amount of production for a 2nd round Tight End

 

How old were you in 1994 when Johnson was drafted?

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Right because a fan’s memory and opinion trumps any sort of quantitative data.  I deal in facts and not emotions and based on those fans Lonnie is a very marginal hit based on a decent amount of production for a 2nd round Tight End

Believe what you want to believe about Lonnie Johnson. I wish others who have knowledge would weigh in on this. I have a sneaking suspicion that most would agree with my take. 

 

Perhaps most importantly, did you watch the games he played in? If so, what percentage?  

 

Lonnie Johnson is the wrong hill to die on.

Edited April 10, 2018 by dave mcbride

[BuffaloRush]

19 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

How old were you in 1994 when Johnson was drafted?

 

Old enough to know Lonnie was a marginal hit

[Jay_Fixit]

Your “hits” and “misses” are yikes’ing up this place.

[BuffaloRush]

17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Believe what you want to believe about Lonnie Johnson. I wish others who have knowledge would weigh in on this. I have a sneaking suspicion that most would agree with my take. 

 

Perhaps most importantly, did you watch the games he played in? If so, what percentage?  

 

Lonnie Johnson is the wrong hill to die on.

 

I probably watched almost every game he played in.  Look, I’m not saying that Lonnie Johnson was an All-Pro.  I might have thought he was a bust before digging a little deeper.  

 

Did the Bills have higher hopes for him?  Probably, but when you consider where he was drafted in 1994 and the production that he delivered as a starting TE, I think you can marginally say that the selection was a hit.  

 

Your argument that he was playing with Hall of Fame talent is hollow as well.  Is Brent Jones any less of a TE because he played on a team of HOF’ers?    How about Jay Novacek?  Oh and by the way, Lonnie had more catches that those two did for a few years. 

[Rico]

30 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Right because a fan’s memory and opinion trumps any sort of quantitative data.  I deal in facts and not emotions and based on those fans Lonnie is a very marginal hit based on a decent amount of production for a 2nd round Tight End

What is your analysis of Drew Bledsoe as a Buffalo Bill? Hit or miss. 

[BuffaloRush]

5 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Your “hits” and “misses” are yikes’ing up this place.

 

It’s a very popular thread.  Also there’s only 2 more GM left.  Sorry to the old timers....um, I mean experienced members.... I will not be going back to the 1960’s

1 minute ago, Rico said:

What is your analysis of Drew Bledsoe as a Buffalo Bill? Hit or miss. 

 

Totally different criteria, because draft picks are different entities than assets acquired from trades.  

 

But to answer your question, overall Bledsoe was Miss.  He did have his moments and made one Pro Bowl but I don’t think the Bills got the QB performance that they expected or an appropriate return for the #1 they gave up.   This can be quantified both in individual stats and overall team record.  

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Yes I am analyzing performances properly.  It’s all about putting the performance through the lens of their fit and performance for the Bills. 

 

Todd Collins was a QB picked in the 2nd round.  We can agree he was a MISS correct?  But if you look at the season he had for Washington in 2007, does that make him a hit?  Hell no.  

 

Also you clearly had a bias against Lonnie Johnson.  As I said, the numbers show he was a productive player and that can’t be disputed.  Your take that Lonnie underachieved is an opinion, that’s fine.  But don’t try to pass your opinion as it’s a fact.  How do you quantify “terrible blocking” or “bad route?”  You can quantify “drops” but you have chosen not to.  

 

The difference is I have the data to explicitly show that he was a decent TE.  It surprised me.  

https://www.newspapers.com/newspage/136094178/

 

DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE. ROCHESTER. N.Y., SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 1996 

Last season, Johnson served as Kelly's personal whipping boy. Johnson made numerous errors running pass patterns, and Kelly never let an occasion pass without pointing out Johnson's gaffe. This year, Johnson thinks he has cut down on the mental errors, and his problems are more physical. "I wish I had an explanation," Johnson said. "All I can say is I didn't get it done. It all goes back to being focused on the ball and watching it coming into my hands." Johnson knows his pass-catching production has to increase in order for the Bills offense to click. "It's a very important position, and if I don't get it done, the offense is not going to go," he said. "It's like having a car with an old battery, it's not going to run smoothly. "I heard someone say the only thing consistent about Lonnie Johnson is his inconsistency. I'm trying to work at the things that I'm supposed to do and do them well so I won't be the loose link in the chain."  Kelly said of his talented but streaky tight end. Johnson thinks the problem has been a lack of practice catching balls. In training camp, Johnson stood in front of a Jugs machine every day and caught at least 100 balls. Once the regular season began, he got away from that drill because he has had to spend more time studying game plans and perfecting his blocking techniques. ''You try to work on all aspects of your game, and I guess I've been working so hard at the blocking, maybe you can say that's why the receiving has decreased," he said. "I'm a guy who has to work hard on catching the ball in order to perform as a receiver, so that's something I need to get back to doing to get out of this slump that I'm in right now." Tight end is a vital position in the Bills offense. When the Bills run their counter plays with Thur-man Thomas, the tight end has to be a good blocker, and Johnson has upgraded his skills. He has had at least two plays where his block was the one that sprung Thomas for a touchdown. "I have made progress at blocking, and I'm beginning to enjoy it a lot more than when I first came here," Johnson said. "I think I can call it a strength of mine." Coach Marv Levy agreed. "He's done a very good job of blocking as our running game has improved," Levy said. "He's done a superior job as a blocker." But in the same breath, Levy added: "He hasn't been as involved in the passing game, however." And that has been a detriment In past years, Kelly has relied heavily on the likes of former tight ends Pete Metzelaars and Keith McKeller and nothing has changed as Kelly has thrown Johnson's way almost as frequently. The difference is that Metzelaars and McKeller rarely let Kelly down. Johnson has made driving Kelly nuts an art form. "Of all the receivers, I'm on Lonnie a little more because I know what he can do," Kelly said of his propensity for directing tirades at Johnson. "The thing is, I can't say too much because he's getting it from all directions, his coach (tight ends coach Don Lawrence), the offensive line coach (Tom Bresnahan) because of blocking, and from me telling him how to run a route. "He's probably getting so much coaching, it's probably driving him crazy. He just needs to concentrate and not worry about anything but catching and running with it"

The scene has become all too familiar, and Buffalo Bills tight end Lonnie Johnson realizes it. Every time Johnson drops a Jim Kelly pass, he shakes his head and points his fingers at himself to let everyone know it was his fault Give credit to Johnson for owning up to a mistake, but Kelly, the coaches and scores of Bills fans would prefer the third-year pro stop worrying about owning up, and just catch the ball. "I would say that I'm in a slump, compared to the way I got started," Johnson said. "At least it feels that way." It looks that way, too. In the first eight games, Johnson caught 31 balls for 292 yards. In the last two, he has more drops (3) than , receptions (2), and was held without a catch by the Philadelphia Eagles. "It concerns me a little bit because I know what Lonnie is capable of. "Buffalo Bills Lonnie Johnson's stats have suffered lately. The third-year pro dropped three balls in last two games. 

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

I probably watched almost every game he played in.  Look, I’m not saying that Lonnie Johnson was an All-Pro.  I might have thought he was a bust before digging a little deeper.  

 

Did the Bills have higher hopes for him?  Probably, but when you consider where he was drafted in 1994 and the production that he delivered as a starting TE, I think you can marginally say that the selection was a hit.  

 

Your argument that he was playing with Hall of Fame talent is hollow as well.  Is Brent Jones any less of a TE because he played on a team of HOF’ers?    How about Jay Novacek?  Oh and by the way, Lonnie had more catches that those two did for a few years. 

?? - I never said he was playing with hall of fame talent. You must be confusing me with another poster.

[Jay_Fixit]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

It’s a very popular thread.  Also there’s only 2 more GM left.  Sorry to the old timers....um, I mean experienced members.... I will not be going back to the 1960’s

 

Totally different criteria, because draft picks are different entities than assets acquired from trades.  

 

But to answer your question, overall Bledsoe was Miss.  He did have his moments and made one Pro Bowl but I don’t think the Bills got the QB performance that they expected or an appropriate return for the #1 they gave up.   This can be quantified both in individual stats and overall team record.  

If being 38 is an “old timer” then I’ll accept it.

 

I guess it’s better than being a “don’t know what a hit or miss is yet I’ve created multiple threads about the very subject timer.”

 

Lonnie Johnson. Yowza.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

The problem I had with Butler was he was very good at finding talent, either via draft or FA, but he was too much of a players GM and when it came time to re-sign to new contracts he'd often overpay and left a mess behind him regarding salary cap when he left here. According to him everyone was a great player.

[BuffaloRush]

43 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

https://www.newspapers.com/newspage/136094178/

 

DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE. ROCHESTER. N.Y., SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 16, 1996 

Last season, Johnson served as Kelly's personal whipping boy. Johnson made numerous errors running pass patterns, and Kelly never let an occasion pass without pointing out Johnson's gaffe. This year, Johnson thinks he has cut down on the mental errors, and his problems are more physical. "I wish I had an explanation," Johnson said. "All I can say is I didn't get it done. It all goes back to being focused on the ball and watching it coming into my hands." Johnson knows his pass-catching production has to increase in order for the Bills offense to click. "It's a very important position, and if I don't get it done, the offense is not going to go," he said. "It's like having a car with an old battery, it's not going to run smoothly. "I heard someone say the only thing consistent about Lonnie Johnson is his inconsistency. I'm trying to work at the things that I'm supposed to do and do them well so I won't be the loose link in the chain."  Kelly said of his talented but streaky tight end. Johnson thinks the problem has been a lack of practice catching balls. In training camp, Johnson stood in front of a Jugs machine every day and caught at least 100 balls. Once the regular season began, he got away from that drill because he has had to spend more time studying game plans and perfecting his blocking techniques. ''You try to work on all aspects of your game, and I guess I've been working so hard at the blocking, maybe you can say that's why the receiving has decreased," he said. "I'm a guy who has to work hard on catching the ball in order to perform as a receiver, so that's something I need to get back to doing to get out of this slump that I'm in right now." Tight end is a vital position in the Bills offense. When the Bills run their counter plays with Thur-man Thomas, the tight end has to be a good blocker, and Johnson has upgraded his skills. He has had at least two plays where his block was the one that sprung Thomas for a touchdown. "I have made progress at blocking, and I'm beginning to enjoy it a lot more than when I first came here," Johnson said. "I think I can call it a strength of mine." Coach Marv Levy agreed. "He's done a very good job of blocking as our running game has improved," Levy said. "He's done a superior job as a blocker." But in the same breath, Levy added: "He hasn't been as involved in the passing game, however." And that has been a detriment In past years, Kelly has relied heavily on the likes of former tight ends Pete Metzelaars and Keith McKeller and nothing has changed as Kelly has thrown Johnson's way almost as frequently. The difference is that Metzelaars and McKeller rarely let Kelly down. Johnson has made driving Kelly nuts an art form. "Of all the receivers, I'm on Lonnie a little more because I know what he can do," Kelly said of his propensity for directing tirades at Johnson. "The thing is, I can't say too much because he's getting it from all directions, his coach (tight ends coach Don Lawrence), the offensive line coach (Tom Bresnahan) because of blocking, and from me telling him how to run a route. "He's probably getting so much coaching, it's probably driving him crazy. He just needs to concentrate and not worry about anything but catching and running with it"

The scene has become all too familiar, and Buffalo Bills tight end Lonnie Johnson realizes it. Every time Johnson drops a Jim Kelly pass, he shakes his head and points his fingers at himself to let everyone know it was his fault Give credit to Johnson for owning up to a mistake, but Kelly, the coaches and scores of Bills fans would prefer the third-year pro stop worrying about owning up, and just catch the ball. "I would say that I'm in a slump, compared to the way I got started," Johnson said. "At least it feels that way." It looks that way, too. In the first eight games, Johnson caught 31 balls for 292 yards. In the last two, he has more drops (3) than , receptions (2), and was held without a catch by the Philadelphia Eagles. "It concerns me a little bit because I know what Lonnie is capable of. "Buffalo Bills Lonnie Johnson's stats have suffered lately. The third-year pro dropped three balls in last two games. 

?? - I never said he was playing with hall of fame talent. You must be confusing me with another poster.

 

Like I said, Lonnie is not a perfect player but when you look at his production as a TE that was taken in round 2, I would say that he is a passable hit.

37 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

The problem I had with Butler was he was very good at finding talent, either via draft or FA, but he was too much of a players GM and when it came time to re-sign to new contracts he'd often overpay and left a mess behind him regarding salary cap when he left here. According to him everyone was a great player.

 

Who is “him?”  Are you referring to me?

 

i don’t disagree with what you wrote about Butler but this is only rating him on the job he did with the draft.  You said Butler did a good job so we are in agreement.  

 

[dave mcbride]

21 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Like I said, Lonnie is not a perfect player but when you look at his production as a TE that was taken in round 2, I would say that he is a passable hit.

 

Who is “him?”  Are you referring to me?

 

i don’t disagree with what you wrote about Butler but this is only rating him on the job he did with the draft.  You said Butler did a good job so we are in agreement.  

 

Incidentally, I think that Butler was a good GM. There are a lot of weird things that go unmentioned in all of this.  Butler desperately wanted Leeland McElroy in 1996, but he had to settle for Eric Moulds!

 

In 2000, he had every intention of drafting Ahmad Plummer - a fantastic CB until he got hurt (back issues) a couple of years into his career - but SF snatched him right before the Bills picked. In the second round, he really liked Mike Brown and Deon Grant and was champing at the bit to draft either of them in that order. Unfortunately, Brown went at 39 and Grant went one pick before he took Tillman. He drafted Tillman for need, figuring that a guy who was a 4th-5th round talent was the only decent safety left and that he had to grab him or lose out altogether.  Grant played for 12 years and won a SB ring with the Giants in 2011. Change it around slightly, and it ends up looking pretty good. 

Edited April 10, 2018 by dave mcbride

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

Old enough to know Lonnie was a marginal hit

 

You won't answer because it doesn't support your "evaluation." What, 10? 5?

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

It’s a very popular thread.  Also there’s only 2 more GM left.  Sorry to the old timers....um, I mean experienced members.... I will not be going back to the 1960’s

 

Your thread is one of many that will be forgotten. Drop the ego dude. There are many other posters who are more knowledgeable than you and your analysis isn't sound.

[BuffaloRush]

28 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

You won't answer because it doesn't support your "evaluation." What, 10? 5?

 

 

Your thread is one of many that will be forgotten. Drop the ego dude. There are many other posters who are more knowledgeable than you and your analysis isn't sound.

 

No ego here....someone asked me to stop and I’m just saying, the responses had been good.  People read these threads and a few even sent me props.  I only have two other GMs and then I will be finished, so relax.  The beat goes on.

53 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Incidentally, I think that Butler was a good GM. There are a lot of weird things that go unmentioned in all of this.  Butler desperately wanted Leeland McElroy in 1996, but he had to settle for Eric Moulds!

 

In 2000, he had every intention of drafting Ahmad Plummer - a fantastic CB until he got hurt (back issues) a couple of years into his career - but SF snatched him right before the Bills picked. In the second round, he really liked Mike Brown and Deon Grant and was champing at the bit to draft either of them in that order. Unfortunately, Brown went at 39 and Grant went one pick before he took Tillman. He drafted Tillman for need, figuring that a guy who was a 4th-5th round talent was the only decent safety left and that he had to grab him or lose out altogether.  Grant played for 12 years and won a SB ring with the Giants in 2011. Change it around slightly, and it ends up looking pretty good. 

 

Interesting I didn’t realize this.  He could

have used a hit in the 2000 draft because it’s one of the worst Bills drafts of all time.  

 

Aside from that Butler was pretty consistent in the draft.  You could argue that overall he was more effective than Bill Polian, who missed quite frequently.  Polian has much bigger hits and even a couple HOF’ers on his resume.  

[BillsVet]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

No ego here....someone asked me to stop and I’m just saying, the responses had been good.  People read these threads and a few even sent me props.  I only have two other GMs and then I will be finished, so relax.  The beat goes on.

 

I'm going to ask one more time: how old were you when Lonnie Johnson was drafted?

 

If your opinion on these draft picks is based on personal observation and stats, well, people can disagree. If your perspective is based on a pro football reference search, then your "evaluation" isn't all that in-depth.

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

No ego here....someone asked me to stop and I’m just saying, the responses had been good.  People read these threads and a few even sent me props.  I only have two other GMs and then I will be finished, so relax.  The beat goes on.

 

Interesting I didn’t realize this.  He could

have used a hit in the 2000 draft because it’s one of the worst Bills drafts of all time.  

 

Aside from that Butler was pretty consistent in the draft.  You could argue that overall he was more effective than Bill Polian, who missed quite frequently.  Polian has much bigger hits and even a couple HOF’ers on his resume.  

Butler had some bad luck in 2000, plain and simple. He was the guy who scouted and really pushed for Thurman Thomas, by the way.

Edited April 10, 2018 by dave mcbride

[Rico]

20 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

No ego here....someone asked me to stop and I’m just saying, the responses had been good.  People read these threads and a few even sent me props.  I only have two other GMs and then I will be finished, so relax.  The beat goes on.

 

After GM’s, I think you should move on to QB analysis. I think EJ was worse than JP,  but I want to be sure.

[DrDawkinstein]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Butler had some bad luck in 2000, plain and simple. He was the guy who scouted and really pushed for Thurman Thomas, by the way.

 

So a good talent evaluator but not a great team builder or cap manager. Hmmm...

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

Your argument that he was playing with Hall of Fame talent is hollow as well.  Is Brent Jones any less of a TE because he played on a team of HOF’ers?    How about Jay Novacek?  Oh and by the way, Lonnie had more catches that those two did for a few years. 

 

That was me. And if you cant tell the difference between Brent Jones/Jay Novacek and Lonnie Johnson, then that again proves your player analysis is way off.

[BuffaloRush]

43 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

So a good talent evaluator but not a great team builder or cap manager. Hmmm...

 

That was me. And if you cant tell the difference between Brent Jones/Jay Novacek and Lonnie Johnson, then that again proves your player analysis is way off.

 

I can tell a huge difference.  They were better by a million times - how’s that for analysis!?!?

 

what I’m saying is production is production.  Lonnie was not the best but he was productive enough to warrant his value as a 2nd round pick.  

[Big Turk]

He was so good in previous drafts to his final one that I've always believed he knew he was leaving and intentionally threw the draft...the picks make no sense based on his prior track record...turned out to be one of the worst drafts in Bills history top to bottom...

[K-9]

21 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

It truly is a crap shoot and success is sometimes all about finding the right fit.  But it’s clear some draft classes are way stronger than others 

Yes, there have always been outliers. Like the Steelers' draft in 1974, for instance. But over the course of history, the success/failure rates of drafts for every team is very similar. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

8 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Like I said, Lonnie is not a perfect player but when you look at his production as a TE that was taken in round 2, I would say that he is a passable hit.

 

Who is “him?”  Are you referring to me?

 

i don’t disagree with what you wrote about Butler but this is only rating him on the job he did with the draft.  You said Butler did a good job so we are in agreement.  

 

 

"Him"  is Butler himself, too often overpaid.  Admittedly he became GM at the beginning of the FA period, so likely alot of feeling out the process and probably very few knew the long term affect of things like getting in cap trouble.  At that point was still early enough  in the era you could keep pushing overspending down the road and by the time it caught up, he was gone to the west coast.

 

But yes do agree he did good job with the draft

[BuffaloRush]

40 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

"Him"  is Butler himself, too often overpaid.  Admittedly he became GM at the beginning of the FA period, so likely alot of feeling out the process and probably very few knew the long term affect of things like getting in cap trouble.  At that point was still early enough  in the era you could keep pushing overspending down the road and by the time it caught up, he was gone to the west coast.

 

But yes do agree he did good job with the draft

 

Ok yeah I do agree.  Butler was really bad with managing the salary cap.