Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM Buddy Nix In The NFL Draft?

[BuffaloRush]

OK after a few week... it's finally back.  As the draft approaches, I'm taking a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses.  While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status.  As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick.  A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status.  If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss.  Also, if a player doesn't have a great career for the Bills, but then has a better career on another team that is not a miss in my opinion.  We are dealing strictly on what the draft selections brought to the table for the Bills - not another team.  

 

I do realize that this evaluation will certainly stir up some disagreement.  However, this is the way that I choose to evaluate and rate player and it will be subjective.

 

Now let's move onto to the next GM Buddy Nix.  First, I have decided to give Buddy credit for the 2013 Draft, though some would lead you to believe it was Whaley who took over.  Since Nix was GM, he will get the credit or blame.

 

Before you do that - check out my previous evaluations:

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

3. Bill Polian: 23%

 

Buddy Nix took over the team which has a very poor structure and was largely considered a tire fire.  Still many fans, including yours truly, thought Buddy was a terrible hire.  Just another employee promoted from within because Ralph didn't trust someone from the outside to make decisions.  His first hire as head coach, Chan Gailey, was equally as uninspiring - though I think if Chan would have chosen a better DC, things could have been different.  

 

Now how was Buddy in the Draft:

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2010	1	C.J. Spiller	9	RB	2017	0	1	3	34	90						712	3451	12	198	1484	9			Clemson
2010	2	Torell Troup	41	DT	2012	0	0	0	3	21														Central Florida
2010	3	Alex Carrington	72	DE	2015	0	0	0	7	59													4.0	Arkansas St.
2010	4	Marcus Easley	107	WR	2015	0	0	0	1	42									3	71	1	1		Connecticut
2010	5	Ed Wang	140	T	2010	0	0	0	0	6														Virginia Tech
2010	6	Arthur Moats	178	LB	2017	0	0	3	21	121													16.5	James Madison
2010	6	Danny Batten	192	DE	2011	0	0	0	2	16													0.5	South Dakota St.
2010	7	Levi Brown	209	QB	2010	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	24	0	1									Troy
2010	7	Kyle Calloway	216	T		0	0	0																Iowa

 

2010 Draft - I am sorry  but this was a terrible terrible draft.  Buddy gets a fat 0.  0 Hits,  All misses.  This is rare but he batted .000 - which really is hard to do.  I am sure someone will try to argue for Arthur Moats or Marcus Easley, but no these were NOT hits.  

 

Seriously, this was such a terrible draft we should have seen Buddy's bad drafting coming.

 

Taking CJ Spiller and Torell Troup in rounds 1 and 2 should have been a fireable offense.   Spiller did have his moments with the Bills, but the bottom line is he was a Top 10 premium pick and he never realized his potential.  This was a bad pick for a team that had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch at RB.  

 

Hits 0

Misses 9

 

0% Success

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2011	1	Marcell Dareus	3	DT	2017	1	2	5	49	100													36.0	Alabama
2011	2	Aaron Williams	34	DB	2016	0	0	2	18	59												7		Texas
2011	3	Kelvin Sheppard	68	LB	2017	0	0	4	26	100												2	3.0	LSU
2011	4	Da'Norris Searcy	100	DB	2017	0	0	2	24	107												8	4.5	North Carolina
2011	4	Chris Hairston	122	T	2017	0	0	1	19	74														Clemson
2011	5	Johnny White	133	RB	2012	0	0	0	0	19						20	72	0	1	-3	0			North Carolina
2011	6	Chris White	169	LB	2014	0	0	0	4	51														Mississippi St.
2011	7	Justin Rogers	206	DB	2015	0	0	0	4	43												3		Richmond
2011	7	Michael Jasper	245	DT		0	0	0

 

2011 - Give Buddy credit.  Unlike 2010, he made some very solid and safe picks and drafted well in Rounds 1 and 2.

 

Hits: 

Marcel Dareus - He was drafted very high but when motivated, Marcel was one of the best DT's in the NFL.  He played very well during his few years with the Bills....then Whaley signed him to a huge deal and he became another dude.  He's still a pretty good player, though not the same cat who dominated in 2013-2014.  

 

Aaron Williams - It took him a few years, but Williams was a competent safety and the field general for the Bills.  Injuries cut his career short but for a 2nd round pick, Williams delivered on his draft status.

 

Da'Norris Searcy - He was never a star at safety but he started for about 1 1/2 seasons and played pretty well.  Overall for a 4th round pick, it's a HIT.

 

3 Hits/6 Misses

33%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2012	1	Stephon Gilmore	10	DB	2017	0	1	6	29	81												16		South Carolina
2012	2	Cordy Glenn	41	G	2017	0	0	5	34	78														Georgia
2012	3	T.J. Graham	69	WR	2015	0	0	1	7	47						5	19	0	61	794	4			North Carolina St.
2012	4	Nigel Bradham	105	LB	2017	0	0	5	33	88												2	6.5	Florida St.
2012	4	Ron Brooks	124	DB	2016	0	0	0	6	52														LSU
2012	5	Zebrie Sanders	144	OL	2012	0	0	0	0															Florida St.
2012	5	Tank Carder	147	LB	2016	0	0	0	5	78														TCU
2012	6	Mark Asper	178	G	2014	0	0	0	0	7														Oregon
2012	7	John Potter	251	K	2013	0	0	0	0	9														West. Michigan

 

2012

 

3 Hits/9 Misses

 

33% Success

 

Almost identical to 2011.  Solid picks in Round 1 and 2, 1 good pick in the 4th round, and a punch of crap.

 

Gilmore started slowly but had several quality years with the Bills.  Many fans (including me) might argue he never was a good as the billing some give him.  He is not a lockdown corner.  But there's no denying he's a very very good CB.  Cordy in the second round was probably Nix's best selection.  When healthy, you can make the case for Cordy being one of the too 10 tackles in the NFL.  Bradham is a very good LB.  Not a star or a Pro Bowl LB, but he can definitely contribute and become an important part of the defense.

The rest of the draft was terrible.  TJ Graham at #3 was a pick many thought was poor and it sure did turn out that way.  Still solid drafting at the top of the round saved Buddy here.

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2013	1	EJ Manuel	16	QB	2017	0	0	1	10	30	343	590	3767	20	16	96	339	4						Florida St.
2013	2	Robert Woods	41	WR	2017	0	0	5	26	69						6	34	0	259	3232	17			USC
2013	2	Kiko Alonso	46	LB	2017	0	0	3	25	58												7	3.0	Oregon
2013	3	Marquise Goodwin	78	WR	2017	0	0	2	14	55						10	65	0	105	1742	8			Texas
2013	4	Duke Williams	105	DB	2016	0	0	0	8	58												1	1.0	Nevada
2013	5	Jonathan Meeks	143	DB	2016	0	0	0	2	38														Clemson
2013	6	Dustin Hopkins	177	K	2017	0	0	3	7	39														Florida St.
2013	7	Chris Gragg	222	TE	2015	0	0	0	1	32									24	251	2			Arkansas

 

2013 

Buddy left the Bills with a crap parting gift the likes we haven't seen since John Butler's 2000 draft.  

 

1 Hit/7 Misses

14% Success

 

I am sure many people will debate 2013 and that's fine.

One thing you can't debate is EJ Manuel.  It was a reach for a 3rd round QB who might have been available two rounds later. This selection set the team back for 2 seasons.  It wasn't until Tyrod Taylor actually helped bail the team out of QB purgatory (slightly).

 

Roberts Woods is a tough call.  He had a breakout season but remember - this is only his performance on the Bills.  Overall, I'd say he was a solid WR for the Bills and that his performance was close to a 2nd round selection to warrant a hit.

 

Goodwin also had a breakout year in 2017 but he couldn't stay healthy as a member of the Bills.  His performance does not justify a 3rd round pick.

 

Kiko Alonso is a player I am sure some will argue for being hit.  He was certainly a fast LB who has a HUGE 6 games of his rookie year but his performance began to slip as the year went on.  Overall I just don't think his play lived up to his 2nd round selection and no you say "well he was traded for Lesean McCoy so that makes him a Hit." Nope.

 

OVERALL

 

7 Hits/28 Misses

25% Success

 

Hey, Buddy had his moments at the top of the draft for a few season, but overall he missed out on too many great players.  Rather than being remembered for solid picks like Gilmore or Cordy Glenn, I think fans will attach him to Torrel Troupe and EJ Manuel.   Buddy was probably a very good scout but I think this list shows that scouting is where he should have stayed.

 

So here are the standings so far:

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

3. Buddy Nix: 25%

4. Bill Polian: 23%

Edited March 20, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[hmsmystic]

Ugh seeing this all on paper like this makes me sick- these were some bad drafts.  As you mentioned, there may be an argument for Moats as not being a miss.  He had a decent career and a few starts for a 6th round LB

[Roundybout]

6 minutes ago, hmsmystic said:

Ugh seeing this all on paper like this makes me sick- these were some bad drafts.  As you mentioned, there may be an argument for Moats as not being a miss.  He had a decent career and a few starts for a 6th round LB

 

Plus didn't he put Favre out of his misery?

Edited March 20, 2018 by BillsEnthusiast

[hmsmystic]

1 minute ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Plus didn't  didn't he put Favre out of his misery?

You know I was thinking about that as well- indeed he did

[Boludo]

Your rankings are so bad.

Seriously, you are ranking Bill Polian as the worst GM the Bills have had and putting him behind Levy, Brandon, and Nix.

Don't you think that should make you rethink things? Your hits and misses on Polian are all wrong, and you are also evaluating drafts that used to have 12 rounds in the same way you evaluate 7 round drafts. The whole thing is competely off base and nonsensical.

 

[BuffaloRush]

Just now, Boludo said:

Your rankings are so bad.

Seriously, you are ranking Bill Polian as the worst GM the Bills have had and putting him behind Levy, Brandon, and Nix.

Don't you think that should make you rethink things? Your hits and misses on Polian are all wrong, and you are also evaluating drafts that used to have 12 rounds in the same way you evaluate 7 round drafts. The whole thing is competely off base and nonsensical.

 

 

Yeah the 12 round drafts definitely do hurt Polian.  Still I stand by my rankings.  If I cut Polian off at Round 7, he’d lose some of the good picks her made late in the draft 

5 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Plus didn't he put Favre out of his misery?

 

Moats is really close.  Might need to reconsider

[QCity]

So a "hit" at the QB position is weighed the same as a "hit" that's a kicker? You've put in a lot of work here but I'm afraid it means very little. Any analysis that ranks Russ Brandon over Bill Polian is likely flawed.

[Jay_Fixit]

Still not sure how you think Brad Butler was a hit? 

 

And Kiko Alonso was most definitely a hit.

[formerlyofCtown]

3 hours ago, QCity said:

So a "hit" at the QB position is weighed the same as a "hit" that's a kicker? You've put in a lot of work here but I'm afraid it means very little. Any analysis that ranks Russ Brandon over Bill Polian is likely flawed.

Or you just don't actually know your draft history.  I was surprised the first time I looked into it. The big thing Polian did was talk Jimbo into coming to Buffalo.  The glory days were actually the work of 3 GMs.

3 hours ago, QCity said:

So a "hit" at the QB position is weighed the same as a "hit" that's a kicker? You've put in a lot of work here but I'm afraid it means very little. Any analysis that ranks Russ Brandon over Bill Polian is likely flawed.

Again Polian didn't draft Kelly.  Your knowledge of draft history is flawed.

Thanks for doing this.  I had thought about it but it's a lot of work so it's greatly appreciated.  How long before you kick the hornet's nest and evaluate Whaley.

[jr1]

THE HOMIE ED WANG

[BuffaloRush]

5 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Still not sure how you think Brad Butler was a hit? 

 

And Kiko Alonso was most definitely a hit.

 

Not really... Alonso played one season for the Bills and they traded him.  He played six very good games and 10 average to below average games.  If you trade your 2nd round draft after one (technically 2 years) its pretty clear he’s not a hit

5 hours ago, QCity said:

So a "hit" at the QB position is weighed the same as a "hit" that's a kicker? You've put in a lot of work here but I'm afraid it means very little. Any analysis that ranks Russ Brandon over Bill Polian is likely flawed.

 

The key is the number of picks.  Polian had 6 or 7 drafts with 12 rounds.  He did hit on some, but he missed quite a bit too. 

 

Russ was GM for 2 drafts and surprisingly the 2009 draft was fairly decent at the top (outside of Maybin)

[GunnerBill]

Yea the 2010 draft sucked.  Really bad.  It didn't even make sense at the time let alone with hindsight.  But again it was a result of the total organisational disarray the Bills managed to find themselves in that offseason. Jauron had gone, Russ had made clear to Mr Wilson he didn't see himself continuing as de-facto GM and they had three senior personnel people - Nix, Modrak and Guy who didn't really get on too well with one another as the only candidates for the GM job because Mr Wilson didn't trust any outsiders. Nix eventually got the job but held fire on the clear out of the personnel department until after the draft..... so Modrak and Guy stayed through the draft and the 2010 effort was what resulted.  It was total and utter organisational mismanagement.  This isn't like the Levy and Brandon assessments where I still say it is pointless to assess them as General Managers because they held the job in name only, but it is yet another example of where the muddled management structure and consequent muddled thinking is as much to blame for a terrible draft as the man who had his name on the GM door.  These picks are rightly on Nix - but they are on the Bills awful organisational management as well.  

[Norwood for Wall of Fame]

I would argue that Kelvin Sheppard and Kiko Alonso were hits because they became valuable trade assets.  Sheppard was traded 1-for-1 for Jerry Hughes and Kiko was traded 1-for-1 for Lesean McCoy.  In my view these are hands down hits and doubly so because the front office had the sense to leverage these guys for top players on time.

7 hours ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Plus didn't he put Favre out of his misery?

 

Yes, ended Favre's career and also put a huge hit on Brady after he left the Bills (but not huge enough)

[Jay_Fixit]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Not really... Alonso played one season for the Bills and they traded him.  He played six very good games and 10 average to below average games.  If you trade your 2nd round draft after one (technically 2 years) its pretty clear he’s not a hit

 

The key is the number of picks.  Polian had 6 or 7 drafts with 12 rounds.  He did hit on some, but he missed quite a bit too. 

 

Russ was GM for 2 drafts and surprisingly the 2009 draft was fairly decent at the top (outside of Maybin)

He’s still in the league and playing good football. 

 

The fact he was traded means nothing. He was traded for the Bills current best player. 

 

He’s infinitely more of a hit than Brad Butler was.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

I think Nix and Whaley were the major factors involved with this team taking a dive into the red. I wonder how much of the hard work that these GM's really do. For me it would be day and night compiling info on so many college players. When you hear Mike Mayock talk about draft prospects you can tell he has put in some major hours into evaluating players. 

[Enemarty]

3 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Not really... Alonso played one season for the Bills and they traded him.  He played six very good games and 10 average to below average games.  If you trade your 2nd round draft after one (technically 2 years) its pretty clear he’s not a hit

 

 

I think you may be right about Kiko, but for different reasons.  I think you have to evaluate the value of the pick, not the person picked (plus doing that adds a level of complexity that is perfect for message boards like this). 

 

So, Kiko's pick inherits the value the Bills as an organization received for that pick, in this case, McCoy's contribution to the organization has to be factored in.  Now, here, because Whaley engineered the trade, he should get credit for the increase in the value of the pick that McCoy brings, not Nix, hence my opening sentence.  There is also the matter of the trade-down that got us the pick, which although under Nix, has Whaley's fingerprints all over it. 

[BadLandsMeanie]

I see Buddy Nix as a guy who needed a QB and drafted a running back.

Needed a QB and drafted a defensive tackle.

Needed a QB and drafted a cornerback.

And then needed a qb and drafted one when there were not any.

And then he retired.

[BuffaloRush]

54 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

He’s still in the league and playing good football. 

 

The fact he was traded means nothing. He was traded for the Bills current best player. 

 

He’s infinitely more of a hit than Brad Butler was.

 

Right - the difference is, he only played football for the Bills for one season.  It’s very hard to consider one season for a 2nd round draft pick a success.  

 

Also while he is playing, and I’d say he’s a serviceable starter, would you trade a 2nd round draft pick for Kiko Alonso at any time in his career (outside of his first 6 games?) Probably not 

 

Butler was a 6th round pick that the Bills got tremendous value out of.  Though I can agree - it’s a close call

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Also while he is playing, and I’d say he’s a serviceable starter, would you trade a 2nd round draft pick for Kiko Alonso at any time in his career (outside of his first 6 games?) Probably not 

 

 

Someone traded us an elite running back for him.....

[dave mcbride]

12 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

OK after a few week... it's finally back.  As the draft approaches, I'm taking a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses.  While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status.  As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick.  A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status.  If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss.  Also, if a player doesn't have a great career for the Bills, but then has a better career on another team that is not a miss in my opinion.  We are dealing strictly on what the draft selections brought to the table for the Bills - not another team.  

 

I do realize that this evaluation will certainly stir up some disagreement.  However, this is the way that I choose to evaluate and rate player and it will be subjective.

 

Now let's move onto to the next GM Buddy Nix.  First, I have decided to give Buddy credit for the 2013 Draft, though some would lead you to believe it was Whaley who took over.  Since Nix was GM, he will get the credit or blame.

 

Before you do that - check out my previous evaluations:

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

3. Bill Polian: 23%

 

Buddy Nix took over the team which has a very poor structure and was largely considered a tire fire.  Still many fans, including yours truly, thought Buddy was a terrible hire.  Just another employee promoted from within because Ralph didn't trust someone from the outside to make decisions.  His first hire as head coach, Chan Gailey, was equally as uninspiring - though I think if Chan would have chosen a better DC, things could have been different.  

 

Now how was Buddy in the Draft:

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2010	1	C.J. Spiller	9	RB	2017	0	1	3	34	90						712	3451	12	198	1484	9			Clemson
2010	2	Torell Troup	41	DT	2012	0	0	0	3	21														Central Florida
2010	3	Alex Carrington	72	DE	2015	0	0	0	7	59													4.0	Arkansas St.
2010	4	Marcus Easley	107	WR	2015	0	0	0	1	42									3	71	1	1		Connecticut
2010	5	Ed Wang	140	T	2010	0	0	0	0	6														Virginia Tech
2010	6	Arthur Moats	178	LB	2017	0	0	3	21	121													16.5	James Madison
2010	6	Danny Batten	192	DE	2011	0	0	0	2	16													0.5	South Dakota St.
2010	7	Levi Brown	209	QB	2010	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	24	0	1									Troy
2010	7	Kyle Calloway	216	T		0	0	0																Iowa

 

2010 Draft - I am sorry  but this was a terrible terrible draft.  Buddy gets a fat 0.  0 Hits,  All misses.  This is rare but he batted .000 - which really is hard to do.  I am sure someone will try to argue for Arthur Moats or Marcus Easley, but no these were NOT hits.  

 

Seriously, this was such a terrible draft we should have seen Buddy's bad drafting coming.

 

Taking CJ Spiller and Torell Troup in rounds 1 and 2 should have been a fireable offense.   Spiller did have his moments with the Bills, but the bottom line is he was a Top 10 premium pick and he never realized his potential.  This was a bad pick for a team that had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch at RB.  

 

Hits 0

Misses 9

 

0% Success

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2011	1	Marcell Dareus	3	DT	2017	1	2	5	49	100													36.0	Alabama
2011	2	Aaron Williams	34	DB	2016	0	0	2	18	59												7		Texas
2011	3	Kelvin Sheppard	68	LB	2017	0	0	4	26	100												2	3.0	LSU
2011	4	Da'Norris Searcy	100	DB	2017	0	0	2	24	107												8	4.5	North Carolina
2011	4	Chris Hairston	122	T	2017	0	0	1	19	74														Clemson
2011	5	Johnny White	133	RB	2012	0	0	0	0	19						20	72	0	1	-3	0			North Carolina
2011	6	Chris White	169	LB	2014	0	0	0	4	51														Mississippi St.
2011	7	Justin Rogers	206	DB	2015	0	0	0	4	43												3		Richmond
2011	7	Michael Jasper	245	DT		0	0	0

 

2011 - Give Buddy credit.  Unlike 2010, he made some very solid and safe picks and drafted well in Rounds 1 and 2.

 

Hits: 

Marcel Dareus - He was drafted very high but when motivated, Marcel was one of the best DT's in the NFL.  He played very well during his few years with the Bills....then Whaley signed him to a huge deal and he became another dude.  He's still a pretty good player, though not the same cat who dominated in 2013-2014.  

 

Aaron Williams - It took him a few years, but Williams was a competent safety and the field general for the Bills.  Injuries cut his career short but for a 2nd round pick, Williams delivered on his draft status.

 

Da'Norris Searcy - He was never a star at safety but he started for about 1 1/2 seasons and played pretty well.  Overall for a 4th round pick, it's a HIT.

 

3 Hits/6 Misses

33%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2012	1	Stephon Gilmore	10	DB	2017	0	1	6	29	81												16		South Carolina
2012	2	Cordy Glenn	41	G	2017	0	0	5	34	78														Georgia
2012	3	T.J. Graham	69	WR	2015	0	0	1	7	47						5	19	0	61	794	4			North Carolina St.
2012	4	Nigel Bradham	105	LB	2017	0	0	5	33	88												2	6.5	Florida St.
2012	4	Ron Brooks	124	DB	2016	0	0	0	6	52														LSU
2012	5	Zebrie Sanders	144	OL	2012	0	0	0	0															Florida St.
2012	5	Tank Carder	147	LB	2016	0	0	0	5	78														TCU
2012	6	Mark Asper	178	G	2014	0	0	0	0	7														Oregon
2012	7	John Potter	251	K	2013	0	0	0	0	9														West. Michigan

 

2012

 

3 Hits/9 Misses

 

33% Success

 

Almost identical to 2011.  Solid picks in Round 1 and 2, 1 good pick in the 4th round, and a punch of crap.

 

Gilmore started slowly but had several quality years with the Bills.  Many fans (including me) might argue he never was a good as the billing some give him.  He is not a lockdown corner.  But there's no denying he's a very very good CB.  Cordy in the second round was probably Nix's best selection.  When healthy, you can make the case for Cordy being one of the too 10 tackles in the NFL.  Bradham is a very good LB.  Not a star or a Pro Bowl LB, but he can definitely contribute and become an important part of the defense.

The rest of the draft was terrible.  TJ Graham at #3 was a pick many thought was poor and it sure did turn out that way.  Still solid drafting at the top of the round saved Buddy here.

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2013	1	EJ Manuel	16	QB	2017	0	0	1	10	30	343	590	3767	20	16	96	339	4						Florida St.
2013	2	Robert Woods	41	WR	2017	0	0	5	26	69						6	34	0	259	3232	17			USC
2013	2	Kiko Alonso	46	LB	2017	0	0	3	25	58												7	3.0	Oregon
2013	3	Marquise Goodwin	78	WR	2017	0	0	2	14	55						10	65	0	105	1742	8			Texas
2013	4	Duke Williams	105	DB	2016	0	0	0	8	58												1	1.0	Nevada
2013	5	Jonathan Meeks	143	DB	2016	0	0	0	2	38														Clemson
2013	6	Dustin Hopkins	177	K	2017	0	0	3	7	39														Florida St.
2013	7	Chris Gragg	222	TE	2015	0	0	0	1	32									24	251	2			Arkansas

 

2013 

Buddy left the Bills with a crap parting gift the likes we haven't seen since John Butler's 2000 draft.  

 

1 Hit/7 Misses

14% Success

 

I am sure many people will debate 2013 and that's fine.

One thing you can't debate is EJ Manuel.  It was a reach for a 3rd round QB who might have been available two rounds later. This selection set the team back for 2 seasons.  It wasn't until Tyrod Taylor actually helped bail the team out of QB purgatory (slightly).

 

Roberts Woods is a tough call.  He had a breakout season but remember - this is only his performance on the Bills.  Overall, I'd say he was a solid WR for the Bills and that his performance was close to a 2nd round selection to warrant a hit.

 

Goodwin also had a breakout year in 2017 but he couldn't stay healthy as a member of the Bills.  His performance does not justify a 3rd round pick.

 

Kiko Alonso is a player I am sure some will argue for being hit.  He was certainly a fast LB who has a HUGE 6 games of his rookie year but his performance began to slip as the year went on.  Overall I just don't think his play lived up to his 2nd round selection and no you say "well he was traded for Lesean McCoy so that makes him a Hit." Nope.

 

OVERALL

 

7 Hits/28 Misses

25% Success

 

Hey, Buddy had his moments at the top of the draft for a few season, but overall he missed out on too many great players.  Rather than being remembered for solid picks like Gilmore or Cordy Glenn, I think fans will attach him to Torrel Troupe and EJ Manuel.   Buddy was probably a very good scout but I think this list shows that scouting is where he should have stayed.

 

So here are the standings so far:

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

3. Buddy Nix: 25%

4. Bill Polian: 23%

Kiko Alonso was actually really good this year for the Dolphins (despite being a thug).

7 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Or you just don't actually know your draft history.  I was surprised the first time I looked into it. The big thing Polian did was talk Jimbo into coming to Buffalo.  The glory days were actually the work of 3 GMs.

Again Polian didn't draft Kelly.  Your knowledge of draft history is flawed.

Thanks for doing this.  I had thought about it but it's a lot of work so it's greatly appreciated.  How long before you kick the hornet's nest and evaluate Whaley.

Cornelius Bennett wasn't drafted by Polian, but for all intents and purposes he was a Bills draft pick. 

[BuffaloRush]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Someone traded us an elite running back for him.....

 

Sorry but that doesn’t make him a great 2nd round pick 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Sorry but that doesn’t make him a great 2nd round pick 

 

I didn't say it did but your point was at no point after his first 6 games could we have got that value back for him. I think we did... two seasons into his career and after a bad injury to boot. 

Edited March 20, 2018 by GunnerBill

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

13 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Still not sure how you think Brad Butler was a hit? 

 

And Kiko Alonso was most definitely a hit.

 

Of course he was. In ROY discussion and exchanged directly for the Bills best player still on the roster.

 

You are right and it’s not even close 

[BuffaloRush]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I didn't say it did but your point was at no point after his first 6 games could we habe got that value back for him. I think we did... two seasons into his career and after a bad injury to boot. 

 

Ok I don’t quite agree.  I do think that his ACL injury was a huge factor so bad luck might have come into play.  

[Jay_Fixit]

2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Of course he was. In ROY discussion and exchanged directly for the Bills best player still on the roster.

 

You are right and it’s not even close 

Yeah, I know.

[BuffaloRush]

2 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

Of course he was. In ROY discussion and exchanged directly for the Bills best player still on the roster.

 

You are right and it’s not even close 

 

No I don’t agree.  1 good season does not constitute a successful draft pick - certainly not a 2nd draft pick.  

 

Also watch Kiko’s rookie season.  He had a very strong 6 games but his play tailed off after that - especially against the run.  He was considered defensive ROY during the first few weeks.  The talk quieted down by the end of the year.

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Kiko Alonso was actually really good this year for the Dolphins (despite being a thug).

Cornelius Bennett wasn't drafted by Polian, but for all intents and purposes he was a Bills draft pick. 

 

Yep but this only takes into account draft picks and by trades.

 

Also if Kiko is so good, why is Miami seriously considering drafting Roquon Smith to take his spot.

[kota]

He was bad.  WE have had how many coaching changes, scheme changes, and GM's since then?   

[shrader]

I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but the whole approach here of grading them by the percentage of hits is seriously flawed.  If a guy hits on only the first round selection one year, you're giving that the same exact grade as someone who hits on only the 7th round pick in another year.  I'd be curious to see how they'd rate out if you tried to come up with some sort of weighting based on the round of the pick.  2011 and 2012 would definitely get a bit of a boost from that.  It might also clear up some of the log jam you're getting with every single GM right around the same percentage.

[dave mcbride]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

No I don’t agree.  1 good season does not constitute a successful draft pick - certainly not a 2nd draft pick.  

 

Also watch Kiko’s rookie season.  He had a very strong 6 games but his play tailed off after that - especially against the run.  He was considered defensive ROY during the first few weeks.  The talk quieted down by the end of the year.

 

Yep but this only takes into account draft picks and by trades.

 

Also if Kiko is so good, why is Miami seriously considering drafting Roquon Smith to take his spot.

Because Smith appears to be a generational talent - arguably the best LB prospect in a decade. Good teams don't draft for need!

[baskingridgebillsfan]

kiko and spiller are hits anyway you look at it .  are they great players ? no but they are solid nfl players and Cj is the draft  he came from is solid. 

ron brooks also stayed in the league for longer than the league average.  and how is Goodwin not a hit.  third round pick still on the league and just received a nice extension  Arthur moat and chris gragg are also hits for the round they are drafted in to still be in the league is a win.  very bias reporting 

15 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

OK after a few week... it's finally back.  As the draft approaches, I'm taking a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses.  While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status.  As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick.  A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status.  If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss.  Also, if a player doesn't have a great career for the Bills, but then has a better career on another team that is not a miss in my opinion.  We are dealing strictly on what the draft selections brought to the table for the Bills - not another team.  

 

I do realize that this evaluation will certainly stir up some disagreement.  However, this is the way that I choose to evaluate and rate player and it will be subjective.

 

Now let's move onto to the next GM Buddy Nix.  First, I have decided to give Buddy credit for the 2013 Draft, though some would lead you to believe it was Whaley who took over.  Since Nix was GM, he will get the credit or blame.

 

Before you do that - check out my previous evaluations:

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

3. Bill Polian: 23%

 

Buddy Nix took over the team which has a very poor structure and was largely considered a tire fire.  Still many fans, including yours truly, thought Buddy was a terrible hire.  Just another employee promoted from within because Ralph didn't trust someone from the outside to make decisions.  His first hire as head coach, Chan Gailey, was equally as uninspiring - though I think if Chan would have chosen a better DC, things could have been different.  

 

Now how was Buddy in the Draft:

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2010	1	C.J. Spiller	9	RB	2017	0	1	3	34	90						712	3451	12	198	1484	9			Clemson
2010	2	Torell Troup	41	DT	2012	0	0	0	3	21														Central Florida
2010	3	Alex Carrington	72	DE	2015	0	0	0	7	59													4.0	Arkansas St.
2010	4	Marcus Easley	107	WR	2015	0	0	0	1	42									3	71	1	1		Connecticut
2010	5	Ed Wang	140	T	2010	0	0	0	0	6														Virginia Tech
2010	6	Arthur Moats	178	LB	2017	0	0	3	21	121													16.5	James Madison
2010	6	Danny Batten	192	DE	2011	0	0	0	2	16													0.5	South Dakota St.
2010	7	Levi Brown	209	QB	2010	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	24	0	1									Troy
2010	7	Kyle Calloway	216	T		0	0	0																Iowa

 

2010 Draft - I am sorry  but this was a terrible terrible draft.  Buddy gets a fat 0.  0 Hits,  All misses.  This is rare but he batted .000 - which really is hard to do.  I am sure someone will try to argue for Arthur Moats or Marcus Easley, but no these were NOT hits.  

 

Seriously, this was such a terrible draft we should have seen Buddy's bad drafting coming.

 

Taking CJ Spiller and Torell Troup in rounds 1 and 2 should have been a fireable offense.   Spiller did have his moments with the Bills, but the bottom line is he was a Top 10 premium pick and he never realized his potential.  This was a bad pick for a team that had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch at RB.  

 

Hits 0

Misses 9

 

0% Success

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2011	1	Marcell Dareus	3	DT	2017	1	2	5	49	100													36.0	Alabama
2011	2	Aaron Williams	34	DB	2016	0	0	2	18	59												7		Texas
2011	3	Kelvin Sheppard	68	LB	2017	0	0	4	26	100												2	3.0	LSU
2011	4	Da'Norris Searcy	100	DB	2017	0	0	2	24	107												8	4.5	North Carolina
2011	4	Chris Hairston	122	T	2017	0	0	1	19	74														Clemson
2011	5	Johnny White	133	RB	2012	0	0	0	0	19						20	72	0	1	-3	0			North Carolina
2011	6	Chris White	169	LB	2014	0	0	0	4	51														Mississippi St.
2011	7	Justin Rogers	206	DB	2015	0	0	0	4	43												3		Richmond
2011	7	Michael Jasper	245	DT		0	0	0

 

2011 - Give Buddy credit.  Unlike 2010, he made some very solid and safe picks and drafted well in Rounds 1 and 2.

 

Hits: 

Marcel Dareus - He was drafted very high but when motivated, Marcel was one of the best DT's in the NFL.  He played very well during his few years with the Bills....then Whaley signed him to a huge deal and he became another dude.  He's still a pretty good player, though not the same cat who dominated in 2013-2014.  

 

Aaron Williams - It took him a few years, but Williams was a competent safety and the field general for the Bills.  Injuries cut his career short but for a 2nd round pick, Williams delivered on his draft status.

 

Da'Norris Searcy - He was never a star at safety but he started for about 1 1/2 seasons and played pretty well.  Overall for a 4th round pick, it's a HIT.

 

3 Hits/6 Misses

33%

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2012	1	Stephon Gilmore	10	DB	2017	0	1	6	29	81												16		South Carolina
2012	2	Cordy Glenn	41	G	2017	0	0	5	34	78														Georgia
2012	3	T.J. Graham	69	WR	2015	0	0	1	7	47						5	19	0	61	794	4			North Carolina St.
2012	4	Nigel Bradham	105	LB	2017	0	0	5	33	88												2	6.5	Florida St.
2012	4	Ron Brooks	124	DB	2016	0	0	0	6	52														LSU
2012	5	Zebrie Sanders	144	OL	2012	0	0	0	0															Florida St.
2012	5	Tank Carder	147	LB	2016	0	0	0	5	78														TCU
2012	6	Mark Asper	178	G	2014	0	0	0	0	7														Oregon
2012	7	John Potter	251	K	2013	0	0	0	0	9														West. Michigan

 

2012

 

3 Hits/9 Misses

 

33% Success

 

Almost identical to 2011.  Solid picks in Round 1 and 2, 1 good pick in the 4th round, and a punch of crap.

 

Gilmore started slowly but had several quality years with the Bills.  Many fans (including me) might argue he never was a good as the billing some give him.  He is not a lockdown corner.  But there's no denying he's a very very good CB.  Cordy in the second round was probably Nix's best selection.  When healthy, you can make the case for Cordy being one of the too 10 tackles in the NFL.  Bradham is a very good LB.  Not a star or a Pro Bowl LB, but he can definitely contribute and become an important part of the defense.

The rest of the draft was terrible.  TJ Graham at #3 was a pick many thought was poor and it sure did turn out that way.  Still solid drafting at the top of the round saved Buddy here.

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
2013	1	EJ Manuel	16	QB	2017	0	0	1	10	30	343	590	3767	20	16	96	339	4						Florida St.
2013	2	Robert Woods	41	WR	2017	0	0	5	26	69						6	34	0	259	3232	17			USC
2013	2	Kiko Alonso	46	LB	2017	0	0	3	25	58												7	3.0	Oregon
2013	3	Marquise Goodwin	78	WR	2017	0	0	2	14	55						10	65	0	105	1742	8			Texas
2013	4	Duke Williams	105	DB	2016	0	0	0	8	58												1	1.0	Nevada
2013	5	Jonathan Meeks	143	DB	2016	0	0	0	2	38														Clemson
2013	6	Dustin Hopkins	177	K	2017	0	0	3	7	39														Florida St.
2013	7	Chris Gragg	222	TE	2015	0	0	0	1	32									24	251	2			Arkansas

 

2013 

Buddy left the Bills with a crap parting gift the likes we haven't seen since John Butler's 2000 draft.  

 

1 Hit/7 Misses

14% Success

 

I am sure many people will debate 2013 and that's fine.

One thing you can't debate is EJ Manuel.  It was a reach for a 3rd round QB who might have been available two rounds later. This selection set the team back for 2 seasons.  It wasn't until Tyrod Taylor actually helped bail the team out of QB purgatory (slightly).

 

Roberts Woods is a tough call.  He had a breakout season but remember - this is only his performance on the Bills.  Overall, I'd say he was a solid WR for the Bills and that his performance was close to a 2nd round selection to warrant a hit.

 

Goodwin also had a breakout year in 2017 but he couldn't stay healthy as a member of the Bills.  His performance does not justify a 3rd round pick.

 

Kiko Alonso is a player I am sure some will argue for being hit.  He was certainly a fast LB who has a HUGE 6 games of his rookie year but his performance began to slip as the year went on.  Overall I just don't think his play lived up to his 2nd round selection and no you say "well he was traded for Lesean McCoy so that makes him a Hit." Nope.

 

OVERALL

 

7 Hits/28 Misses

25% Success

 

Hey, Buddy had his moments at the top of the draft for a few season, but overall he missed out on too many great players.  Rather than being remembered for solid picks like Gilmore or Cordy Glenn, I think fans will attach him to Torrel Troupe and EJ Manuel.   Buddy was probably a very good scout but I think this list shows that scouting is where he should have stayed.

 

So here are the standings so far:

 

1. Russ Brandon: 28%

2. Marv Levy: 25%

3. Buddy Nix: 25%

4. Bill Polian: 23%

sorry but your conclusion are incorrect and unfair.   

[BuffaloRush]

12 minutes ago, baskingridgebillsfan said:

kiko and spiller are hits anyway you look at it .  are they great players ? no but they are solid nfl players and Cj is the draft  he came from is solid. 

ron brooks also stayed in the league for longer than the league average.  and how is Goodwin not a hit.  third round pick still on the league and just received a nice extension  Arthur moat and chris gragg are also hits for the round they are drafted in to still be in the league is a win.  very bias reporting 

sorry but your conclusion are incorrect and unfair.   

 

Thats ok.  It’s not a perfect system but there isn’t a perfect situation out there.  Determining what constitutes as “successful” draft pic is arbitrary.

 

What hurts Polian is the fact that he had way more picks than most other GM’s due to 12 round drafts.  His number is somewhat decieveing but it is what it is

19 minutes ago, shrader said:

I'm sure it's been mentioned before, but the whole approach here of grading them by the percentage of hits is seriously flawed.  If a guy hits on only the first round selection one year, you're giving that the same exact grade as someone who hits on only the 7th round pick in another year.  I'd be curious to see how they'd rate out if you tried to come up with some sort of weighting based on the round of the pick.  2011 and 2012 would definitely get a bit of a boost from that.  It might also clear up some of the log jam you're getting with every single GM right around the same percentage.

 

Thats actually a very good idea but it hard to quantify.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Ok I don’t quite agree.  I do think that his ACL injury was a huge factor so bad luck might have come into play.  

 

You don't agree that we got at least equal to a 2nd round pick when we traded him for Shady? 

[shrader]

41 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Thats ok.  It’s not a perfect system but there isn’t a perfect situation out there.  Determining what constitutes as “successful” draft pic is arbitrary.

 

What hurts Polian is the fact that he had way more picks than most other GM’s due to 12 round drafts.  His number is somewhat decieveing but it is what it is

 

Thats actually a very good idea but it hard to quantify.  

 

I'd just reverse the scoring, 1 point for a 7th round hit and 7 points for a first round hit.  Add them all up and then divide by the total number of possible points for that draft year.  That way, you also account for having more or less picks in any given year.  It's not all that scientific, but it's something.

[dpberr]

I never liked the CJ Spiller pick at #8.  Textbook case of a great athlete masquerading as a competent football player.

 

I think prioritizing athletes over football players was a problem Nix and Whaley both had with their drafts.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

15 hours ago, BuffaloRush said:

 

Yeah the 12 round drafts definitely do hurt Polian.  Still I stand by my rankings.  If I cut Polian off at Round 7, he’d lose some of the good picks her made late in the draft 

 

Moats is really close.  Might need to reconsider

 

A sixth rounder that played in 120 games is a miss ?

[rodneykm]

Oh man I remember how people on the "other message board" were so high on Michael Jasper back in the day.....lol

[Lurker]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRush said:

Also watch Kiko’s rookie season.  He had a very strong 6 games but his play tailed off after that - especially against the run.  He was considered defensive ROY during the first few weeks.  The talk quieted down by the end of the year.

 

Doh....

 

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/Kiko-Alonso-named-PFWA-Defensive-Rookie-of-the-Year/8424f08d-e0ad-44a1-92ba-330046ca3a91

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1945065-nfl-rookie-of-the-year-2013-14-results-offensive-defensive-winners-and-recap NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Voting
Player	Position	No. of votes
Sheldon Richardson, New York Jets	DE	23
Kiko Alonso, Buffalo Bills	LB	19
Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans Saints	S	4
Tyrann Mathieu, Arizona Cardinals	S	2
Star Lotulelei, Carolina Panthers	DT	2

 

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by Lurker

[BuffaloRush]

44 minutes ago, shrader said:

 

I'd just reverse the scoring, 1 point for a 7th round hit and 7 points for a first round hit.  Add them all up and then divide by the total number of possible points for that draft year.  That way, you also account for having more or less picks in any given year.  It's not all that scientific, but it's something.

 

That makes sense.  But shouldn’t a hit in the seventh round be worth more points than a hit in the first round?  Percentage wise a large number of first round talents have a much greater success rate than in the later rounds. If you can find a hit at the bottom of the draft, it shows some good decision making IMO

12 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Doh....

 

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/Kiko-Alonso-named-PFWA-Defensive-Rookie-of-the-Year/8424f08d-e0ad-44a1-92ba-330046ca3a91

 

 

Are we going to pull out secondary and honors now?  Regardless, 1 productive season does not make him a hit in my book.  

24 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

 

A sixth rounder that played in 120 games is a miss ?

 

He’s certainly close.  But in the grand scheme of things he had mininmal impact on the team.  Also he didn’t play 120 games on the Bills.  The evaluation takes into account their time on the Bills only.

 

Games played is not a good indicator of success.  Based on your rationale Todd Collins was a hit in the 2nd round. 

Edited March 20, 2018 by BuffaloRush

[Lurker]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

Are we going to pull out secondary and honors now?  Regardless, 1 productive season does not make him a hit in my book.  

 

Off to the ignore bin for you...

[BuffaloRush]

5 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Off to the ignore bin for you...

 

I would expect nothing less.... I guess one year of production constitutes a good pick?